Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for both apple and红枣 is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - Apple market: Although the Spring Festival stocking has started and the trading atmosphere in production areas has slightly improved, the trading volume of farmers' goods is still limited. The sales in the distribution areas are slow, and the apple sales space is squeezed by low - price fruits. The cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the low excellent - fruit rate supports the price [2][3] -红枣 market: The new - season acquisition of Xinjiang grey jujubes is basically over, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The traditional lunar December approaching may bring a peak in the market, but the supply pressure remains due to the superposition of new and old jujube inventories [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9779 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan/ton or 1.55% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1579 and AP05 - 1379 decreased by 149 respectively [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose after a high - level retreat. The overall trading atmosphere in the main production areas was still light. The procurement and packaging were mainly in Gansu and Liaoning. The market showed that high - quality fruits had stable prices, while the prices of ordinary goods were loose. The cold - storage inventory was at a low level, and the destocking speed accelerated last week [3] Strategy - The strategy for the apple market is neutral [4] 红枣 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the红枣 2605 contract yesterday was 9060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 1.09% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 - 860 increased by 100 [4] Market Analysis - The jujube futures price fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition of Xinjiang grey jujubes is basically over, and the supply pressure is emerging. The approaching of the traditional lunar December may bring a peak in the market, but the supply pressure remains due to the superposition of new and old jujube inventories [6] Strategy - The strategy for the红枣 market is neutral [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and jujube industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, although the sales space is suppressed by low - price substitute fruits, the price remains firm due to factors such as accelerated cold - storage outbound speed, lower than usual high - quality fruit rate, and rising acquisition prices this season. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the Spring Festival [4]. - For the jujube industry, the supply is sufficient due to the combination of new and old stocks. The traditional peak season may drive the sales speed, but it is necessary to focus on the merchants' stocking progress and actual sales speed [8]. Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9630 yuan/ton, a change of - 59 yuan/ton or - 0.61% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1489 and - 1289 respectively, with a change of - 158 from the previous day [1]. Jujube - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract yesterday was 9160 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton or + 0.11% from the previous day [6]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was + - 950, a change of - 75 from the previous day [6]. Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price oscillated and closed down yesterday. The transaction in apple production areas changed little, with different performances in different areas. The transaction was mainly concentrated in low - price goods in Gansu and Liaoning. The overall trading volume was small. The price of high - quality apples was supported, while the price of poor - quality apples showed a weakening trend. Although it is the Spring Festival stocking season, the sales space is squeezed by low - price fruits. The cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent [3]. Jujube - The jujube futures price oscillated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition in production areas has ended, and there was a slight reduction in production compared with previous years. However, the combination of new and old stocks leads to sufficient supply. The market focus has shifted to the consumption end. With the approach of the Spring Festival stocking season, there may be a peak in sales, but the supply - side pressure has not been eliminated [7]. Strategies Apple - Adopt a neutral strategy. The cold - storage outbound speed has accelerated this week. Although the sales space is suppressed by low - price substitute fruits, the price is still firm. Attention should be paid to the actual Spring Festival demand [4]. Jujube - Adopt a neutral strategy. The acquisition in production areas has basically ended. Although the production in the 25th season decreased compared with the 24th season, the inventory is sufficient. The traditional peak season may drive the sales speed, and attention should be paid to the merchants' stocking progress and actual sales speed [8].

Group 1: Report Title and Overview - The report is titled "Fruit and Vegetable Daily | 2026-01-09", focusing on apples and red dates [1] Group 2: Apple Analysis Market News and Key Data - Apple 2605 contract closed at 9,531 yuan/ton yesterday, down 52 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day. Shandong Qixia 80 first and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged; Shaanxi Luochuan 70 above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot basis AP05 was - 1331 and - 1131 respectively, up 52 from the previous day [2] Recent Market Information - In production areas, the overall transaction of late Fuji in the warehouse is limited. Gansu has good shipment, while Shaanxi and Shandong have sporadic Spring Festival gift box packaging, with transactions mainly on low - price goods. The destocking pressure of general - quality fruit farmers' goods remains. The terminal is affected by competing fruits, and demand is weak. Short - term transactions are expected to be flat, with mainstream prices stable. After the Spring Festival stocking starts, the market may diverge [3] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated and closed down. Transaction speeds vary by region, with Gansu attracting more customers. Inquiry customers increase, but transactions don't improve significantly. Merchants mainly trade in - stock goods. The prices of general and poor - quality apples are loose. Low - price alternative fruits in the sales area suppress apple sales. The 2025 high - quality fruit rate was poor, and cold - storage inventory is lower than usual. There are structural contradictions. The price of high - quality apples is firm, while that of poor - quality apples is loose. The cold - storage destocking speed is slower than in previous years [4] Strategy - Neutral. In January 2026, Spring Festival stocking starts, but the low high - quality fruit rate and inventory lead to high prices of high - quality apples, suppressing sales in the sales area. Low - price alternative fruits also squeeze the sales space [5] Group 3: Red Date Analysis Market News and Key Data - Red date 2605 contract closed at 9,075 yuan/ton yesterday, down 75 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous day. Hebei first - grade gray jujube spot price was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged. The spot basis CJ05 was - 875, up 75 from the previous day [6][7] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang production areas is almost finished. The mainstream prices vary by region. In the Hebei market, the arrival of sub - standard goods is about 10 trucks, and the finished products are few. The market price is stable, and downstream customers purchase as needed. In the Guangdong market, the arrival is 2 trucks, and the price is stable [7] Market Analysis - Red date futures prices fluctuated downward yesterday. The acquisition in production areas is ending, and prices are stable. The supply is loose due to the overlap of new and old jujubes. The arrival speed in the sales area is accelerating, and the trading atmosphere is good. The inventory pressure is large due to the overlap of two seasons. In the medium - to - long - term, the market depends on the Spring Festival consumption. If demand improves, prices may rise slightly; otherwise, they may weaken [8] Strategy - Neutral [9]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The trading speed of apple production areas is differentiated, with transactions improving in Shaanxi and Shanxi, but overall slow. The low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales. The market is waiting for the Spring Festival stocking to drive up sales [2][3][4] - 红枣: Although the current year's production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant due to sufficient inventory. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton or -0.32% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first and second-grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 above semi-commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price opened high and closed low. Different production areas have different trading speeds. The consumption peak season may drive up sales, but the low-price alternative fruits in the sales area suppress the sales of apples. The excellent fruit rate is low, the hardness of cold storage fruits is insufficient, and the delivery cost is high [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The Spring Festival stocking season is approaching, but the low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales [4] 红枣 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the 红枣 2605 contract was 9150 yuan/ton, a change of +175 yuan/ton or +1.95% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6] Market Analysis - The 红枣 futures price closed higher at a high level. The acquisition work in the production area has basically ended. Although the production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The new and old stocks of 红枣 are sufficient. The sales speed in the sales area is average, and the price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to the downstream sales atmosphere, acquisition price changes, and peak season consumption changes [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, short - term apple transactions are expected to remain dull with stable mainstream prices, awaiting the start of Spring Festival stocking. The market is affected by factors such as festival stocking, alternative fruits, and inventory structure. The price shows a two - level differentiation, with good fruit prices firm and poor fruit prices weakening [2][3] - For the红枣 industry, the focus has shifted to the mid - downstream. Although there was a reduction in production compared to previous years, the supply is sufficient. The market needs to focus on actual demand and sales speed during the lunar month consumption peak. There is a large inventory pressure, and the price trend depends on the improvement of demand during the Spring Festival [7] Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9614 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP05 - 1414, down 67 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP05 - 1214, down 67 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the production areas, the trading atmosphere of late Fuji in the warehouses has slightly improved. Merchants are gradually packaging their own inventory for shipment. High - cost - performance fruit farmer goods are hard to find. The overall transaction is not fast, and merchants mainly package and ship their own inventory as needed. The current terminal consumption of apples is slow [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall trading speed in the apple production areas was slow. Merchants mainly purchased on - demand, and fruit farmers were reluctant to sell. The price of average and poor - quality fruit has loosened. The Spring Festival stocking in January may improve sales, but the low - price alternative fruits in the sales areas compress the apple market space. The low excellent fruit rate and insufficient hardness of cold - storage apples have led to a decrease in the number of delivery fruits. The transfer of the 01 contract to the 05 contract is also a factor in the increase in the futures price. The cold - storage inventory removal rate is lower than the same period in previous years, and the inventory removal rhythm this month will affect the market supply and demand [3] Strategy - Neutral [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2605 contract yesterday was 8975 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ05 - 775, down 20 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang production areas has ended. The mainstream purchase prices vary by region. In the sales areas, the Hebei Cuierzhuang market and the Guangdong Ruyifang market have different arrival and trading situations, and the sales - area prices have declined compared to before the festival [6] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price closed up with fluctuations yesterday. The acquisition work in the production areas has ended. Although there was a reduction in production compared to previous years, the supply is sufficient. The focus has shifted to the mid - downstream. The downstream markets have sufficient arrivals and purchase on - demand with stable prices. During the lunar month consumption peak, attention should be paid to actual demand and sales speed. There is a large inventory pressure due to the superposition of new and old stocks, and the price trend depends on the improvement of demand during the Spring Festival [7] Strategy - Neutral [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - Apple consumption is currently weak, with slow transactions in most apple - producing areas. The price of high - quality apples remains firm, while that of ordinary and poor - quality apples shows signs of loosening. With the upcoming Spring Festival stocking, the sales situation in the sales areas needs to be continuously tracked. The low excellent fruit rate and inventory this year have led to high prices of high - quality apples, suppressing sales in the sales areas, and low - priced substitute fruits are squeezing the sales space of apples. [3][4] - Red dates have entered the consumption peak season, but the sales speed is only moderate. The new - date acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the inventory of new and old dates is superimposed, resulting in a relatively loose overall supply. The price is in a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the actual demand and sales speed in the lunar December consumption market, as well as the consumption release during the Spring Festival peak season. [7][8] Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9,547 yuan/ton, a change of +427 yuan/ton (+4.68%) from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1,347, a change of - 427 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1,147, a change of - 427 from the previous day. [1] Recent Market Information - The overall market of late Fuji in storage remains stable, but the transaction of in - storage goods is slow. High - cost - performance fruit farmer goods are hard to find. In Shaanxi, the transactions of fruit farmer goods are mainly small - volume extreme - quality goods, and merchants mainly ship their self - stored goods. In Gansu, merchants purchase fruit farmer goods as needed, with stable packaging and shipping and good sales. In Shandong, the transactions are sporadic, mainly with the shipment of 75 and third - grade goods. [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price opened low and closed high. Most apple - producing areas had slow trading speeds, except for Gansu where the trading was relatively stable. Merchants mainly traded their self - stored goods, and there were few transactions from fruit farmers. The festival trading atmosphere in the producing areas was insufficient. The price of high - quality apples remained firm, while that of ordinary and poor - quality apples loosened. Low - priced substitute fruits in the sales areas had an obvious impact on apples. The Spring Festival stocking may drive sales in the sales areas, so the sales areas need to be continuously monitored. [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. After entering January 2026, the Spring Festival stocking season has begun. However, the low excellent fruit rate and inventory this year have led to high prices of high - quality apples, suppressing sales in the sales areas, and low - priced substitute fruits are squeezing the sales space of apples. [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2605 contract yesterday was 8,955 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was - 755, a change of - 90 from the previous day. [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang's producing areas has basically ended. The mainstream prices of general - quality dates in different regions vary. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, there were 8 trucks of goods arriving, including off - grade and finished products. Local processing plants mainly processed and shipped their own goods, and holders actively sold their goods, while downstream merchants purchased as needed. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 8 trucks of goods arrived, mainly from Xinjiang, with a light purchasing and selling atmosphere and general downstream purchases. [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fluctuated narrowly yesterday. The acquisition work in Xinjiang, the main producing area of new dates, has ended, with limited remaining goods and reduced inland arrivals. Holders are accelerating the shipment, but the sales speed has been moderate after entering the consumption peak season. The superimposed inventory of new and old dates has led to a relatively loose overall supply. Attention should be paid to the actual demand and sales speed in the lunar December consumption market. [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The new red dates are in storage, and the old inventory is superimposed, resulting in sufficient supply. Merchants mainly sell their self - purchased goods, and the sales speed in the sales areas is moderate. The price is in a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the subsequent downstream sales atmosphere, acquisition price changes, and peak - season consumption changes. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The apple market is in a supply - demand game. Current inventory quantity and quality are generally lower than in previous periods. High - quality fruit prices are high, while prices of lower - quality goods are showing signs of weakness. Terminal consumption is average, and the impact of low - price substitute fruits is increasing [3][4]. - The红枣 market has completed most of its new - date acquisitions. Although production has decreased compared to the previous season, the inventory is high due to the combination of old and new stocks. During the peak consumption season, the market is under pressure from inventory, and the market focuses on peak - season consumption [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9200 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton or 0.40% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - The mainstream trading of late Fuji in the warehouse is stable, but the overall trading atmosphere is average. Fruit farmers' sales are limited. Different regions have different trading situations, with some seeing more inquiries but limited actual transactions [2]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated slightly higher yesterday. Cold - storage shipments increased but were still lower than in previous years. Although the festival has improved sales, there is still inventory pressure, and the impact of low - price substitute fruits is significant [3]. Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The market is in a supply - demand game, with high - quality fruit prices high and low - quality fruit prices weakening, and terminal consumption is average [4]. Red Date Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 9020 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang is nearing completion, with limited remaining inventory. Different regions have different price ranges. In the sales areas, the market situation varies, with some areas having more arrivals and some having less [6]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price fluctuated higher yesterday. The acquisition of new dates is almost complete, and the inventory is high. Although it is the peak consumption season, the market is under pressure from inventory, and the sales areas are stable [7]. Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Although production has decreased, the inventory is high, and the market is under pressure from inventory during the peak consumption season [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the apple industry is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the jujube industry is also neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the current inventory quantity and quality are generally lower than previous periods, with high - quality fruit prices on the high side and costs remaining high. However, the prices of poorer - quality apples are showing signs of decline. Terminal consumption is average, the出库 speed is slow, and low - priced substitute fruits are gradually entering the market, creating sales pressure. The market is in a stage of supply - demand game [4] - For the jujube market, the current acquisition in the production areas has basically ended, and the output has decreased compared to the 24th production season. The supply is sufficient due to the combination of old - season inventory and new - season products. Although the traditional peak season has arrived, the sales volume is average, and merchants purchase on demand. The inventory pressure suppresses the market in the short term, and the market in sales areas is stable. Future market focus lies on peak - season consumption [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9163 yuan/ton, a change of - 84 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a decline of 0.91% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 963 in Shandong Qixia and - 763 in Shaanxi Luochuan, with a change of + 84 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the storage, the overall trading atmosphere of late Fuji is average. Most merchants mainly package their self - stored goods for shipment, and the enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers is not high. In some northern Shaanxi production areas, inquiries for fruit farmers' goods have increased, but actual transactions are still limited. In the western production areas, merchants are sporadically looking for goods, mainly for two - grade fruit farmers' goods, with limited sales of lower - grade and higher - grade goods. In Shandong production areas, the outbound speed has slowed down, with only a small amount of 75 goods being shipped out [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated during trading and declined at the end. Although inquiries in production areas increased, it was mainly merchants picking up their own goods. Although the mainstream price was stable, the prices of poorer - quality goods showed a downward trend. As the New Year's Day is approaching, the overall sales will improve, but the inventory digestion pressure still exists. Low - priced citrus fruits are seizing the apple sales market, so the situation in sales areas needs continuous monitoring [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The current inventory quantity and quality are lower than in previous years. High - quality apples are expensive, and costs are high. Poorer - quality apples' prices are weakening. Terminal consumption is average, and the outbound speed is slow. Low - priced substitute fruits are putting pressure on apple sales. The market is in a supply - demand tug - of - war [4] Jujube Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract yesterday was 8970 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a decline of 0.11% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was + - 670, a change of - 90 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang production areas is coming to an end, with a small amount of remaining goods. The prices in different areas vary according to quality. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 10 trucks of goods arrived during the weekend, including sub - standard and finished products, and merchants purchased on demand. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 10 trucks of goods arrived, with sufficient supply, and merchants also purchased on demand [6] Market Analysis - The jujube futures price fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The acquisition of new jujubes is almost over, with little remaining stock. Goods are gradually transferred to processors and traders, who are accelerating shipments. The market is mainly trading new goods at stable prices. Jujubes are entering the peak consumption season, with improved sales speed, but new and old goods are piling up, and the supply is still abundant. Future focus should be on the sales speed during the peak season [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The acquisition in production areas has basically ended, and the output has decreased compared to the 24th production season. The supply is sufficient due to the combination of old - season inventory and new - season products. Although the traditional peak season has arrived, the sales volume is average, and merchants purchase on demand. The inventory pressure suppresses the market in the short term, and the market in sales areas is stable. Future market focus lies on peak - season consumption [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the apple futures price showed an overall upward trend with the core driver being continuous unfavorable weather, which led to the downward revision of supply - side expectations. In 2026, whether the apple futures price will continue to rise or fall after reaching a high depends on the weather. The marginal driving force for further upward movement is weakening, and the price is expected to enter a topping stage. The apple 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall [2][3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Analysis - **Long - term Trends**: Since the listing of apple futures in 2017, the price has experienced multiple fluctuations, affected by factors such as market understanding, supply - demand situation, weather, and changes in delivery standards [11] - **2025 Trends**: The 2025 apple active contract price showed an obvious upward trend, divided into three main stages. The 01 contract went through four stages: "month - changing and reaching a high - supply - demand stalemate - expectation - driven - reality - realization". The core driver shifted from delivery logic to concerns about the yield and quality of new - season apples [20][24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of apple futures continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 20,315,094 lots, a year - on - year decrease of 10.21%, and the cumulative turnover was 1,584.078 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. The open interest was relatively stable from January to September and slightly increased in October [25] 1.2 Spot Market Analysis - In 2025, the domestic apple spot price showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with regional differences. In Shandong, the price trend was relatively complex, rising slightly from January to April, remaining stable from May to June, falling slightly from July to August, and rising moderately from September to November. In Shaanxi, the price rose slightly in the first half of the year and showed a stable "high - opening and stable - running" pattern in the second half [34] Part 2: Apple Supply Market Analysis - **This Season's Yield and Premium Fruit Rate**: The yield is expected to be at a low level in the past five years, and the premium fruit rate of some key indicators is lower than that in 2024, mainly due to unfavorable weather during the growth period [37] - **This Season's Peak Inventory Level**: The peak inventory level of apples this season is the lowest in the past five years, which further strengthens the market's expectation of medium - to - long - term supply tightening [45] - **Next Season's Supply Expectation**: Although the upstream profit has been repaired this season, the structural problems in the industry still exist. The supply in the next season is uncertain, and the weather is still the key variable affecting the yield [47] Part 3: Apple Demand Market Analysis - **Population and Disposable Income**: The population growth rate has slowed down in recent years, and the growth rate of per capita disposable income has also converged, resulting in insufficient support for terminal consumption [55] - **Total Fruit Output**: The total fruit output has been increasing continuously, with more supply varieties, longer supply periods of seasonal fruits, and a converging price system, which has continuously squeezed the consumption space of apples [59] - **2024/25 Consumption**: The apple consumption in the 2024/25 fruit season was mediocre, with no significant changes. The consumption in the 2025/26 fruit season is likely to continue the current pattern, and the core driver of consumption depends on the improvement of the overall economic environment and the restoration of consumer confidence [67] Part 4: Apple Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2025/26, the apple supply - demand expectation shows a slight downward trend. The supply is expected to decrease year - on - year, and the consumption also shows a stable - to - slightly - decreasing trend. The analysis of the supply - demand balance sheet is mainly based on the estimated yield, and it is difficult to guide the price significantly [76] Part 5: Seasonal Analysis - **Spot Price Seasonality**: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples has a relatively large increase probability in February, May - August, and a relatively large decrease probability in March, October - December, which is related to the growth cycle, holidays, and inventory levels of apples [78] - **Futures Price Seasonality**: The apple futures index has a relatively high probability of rising in February and April and a relatively high probability of falling in March, May, and December. Seasonal rules are only for reference [81] Part 6: Apple Market Outlook and Price Forecast - **Supply**: In 2026, the supply this season has tightened significantly, and the supply in the next season has a repair expectation, but it still depends on the weather [87] - **Demand**: The apple consumption in 2026 will continue the dull pattern, lacking driving factors. The consumption is mainly affected by the macro - consumption environment, and the consumption space is continuously squeezed [88] - **Price Forecast**: The apple futures price in 2026 is expected to enter a topping stage. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 8800 - 10500, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall in the range of 7500 - 9500. For operation, it is recommended to buy on dips for the 2605 contract and sell on rallies for the 2610 contract [88] Part 7: Apple Options Market Analysis - **Options Market Situation**: Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Options Operation Strategies**: For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums; for downstream enterprises, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs; for speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [93] Part 8: Related Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of related companies such as Guotou Zhonglu, Honghui Fruit and Vegetable, etc. showed different degrees of changes in 2025. For example, Guotou Zhonglu increased by 52.34%, and Honghui Fruit and Vegetable increased by 106.51% [94]

Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]