1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is influenced by overseas rate - cut expectations and tariff policies, while China's July import and export data exceeded expectations. The equity market may enter a shock - consolidation phase after rising and shrinking in volume, and bond market opportunities are worthy of attention [2][3]. - Precious metals are boosted by the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut, and their prices are expected to remain in a shock - upward trend in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a strong - shock trend in the short term due to China's strong trade data, the return of overseas supplies, and the expected rate cut by the Fed [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are in a shock state due to the game between the macro - positive and the general fundamentals [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term, and the center of gravity may gradually shift down in the medium term [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an external - strong and internal - weak pattern due to overseas liquidity concerns and the decline of the US dollar [11]. - Lead prices lack continuous positive stimuli and turn to a shock state after the optimistic sentiment is digested [12][13]. - Tin prices follow macro - news, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern in the short term [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a strong - shock trend in the short term due to the uncalmed anti - involution sentiment [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are cautiously bullish in the short term, but the drag of resource disturbances subsiding on prices should be vigilant [17][18]. - Nickel prices may be dragged down by the weakening macro - expectations in the short term [19][20]. - Crude oil prices are in a weak - shock state as the risk of sanctions cools down [21]. - Steel prices are expected to maintain a shock trend due to continuous inventory accumulation [23]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and the impact of northern military - parade production restrictions should be focused on in the medium term [24]. - Soybean meal prices may shock and strengthen, but the upward momentum is relatively weak [25][26]. - Palm oil prices may shock and adjust [28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump nominated Milan as a Fed governor, and the selection of the Fed chairman has started. The reciprocal tariffs have come into effect, and the EU maintains a 15% tariff cap on US chip exports. The US dollar index fell below 98, US bond yields rose slightly, the US stock market opened high and closed low, the gold price exceeded $3400, the copper price rose, and the oil price fell due to the expectation of US - Russia negotiations [2]. - Domestic: In July 2025, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both exceeded expectations, with a trade surplus of $98.2 billion. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased, partially offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The A - share market was in a narrow - range shock, and the bond market rose. The central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. The increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut, weak employment data, and Trump's nomination of a dovish Fed governor have strengthened the rate - cut expectation, boosting precious metals. It is expected that precious metal prices will maintain a shock - upward trend in the short term [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper encountered resistance and fell after failing to break through $9700. China's July copper ore imports increased significantly. Due to the strong trade data, the return of overseas supplies, and the expected rate cut by the Fed, copper prices are expected to remain in a strong - shock trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.73%, and LME aluminum fell 0.42%. The macro - positive supports aluminum prices, but the fundamentals are general, with inventory remaining flat this week and consumption in the off - season. Aluminum prices are in a shock state [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 0.34%. There are short - term supply disturbances, and the exchange's warehouse receipts have increased rapidly. The consumption side suppresses the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, and the center of gravity may gradually shift down in the medium term [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly during the day and shifted down at night, while LME zinc rose. The LME inventory has decreased, and there are signs of a short squeeze. The domestic market is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to maintain an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead rose. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the global visible inventory is high, and the demand is weak. Lead prices lack continuous positive stimuli and are in a shock state [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME tin rose. The market's rate - cut expectation has pushed up the price, and the inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Tin prices follow macro - news, with limited short - term supply - demand contradictions [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The inventory has increased slightly due to the increase in production in the southwest during the wet season. The anti - involution sentiment is still fermenting, and industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a strong - shock trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium futures fluctuated strongly. The market focuses on resource disturbances at home and abroad, but the domestic lithium ore supply is abundant. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state. The short - term price is driven by expectations, but the drag of resource disturbances subsiding should be vigilant. It is cautiously bullish in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated. The US labor market shows signs of cooling, and new tariff disturbances have emerged. The supply of nickel ore is increasing, and the demand for nickel iron is weak. Nickel prices may be dragged down by weakening macro - expectations in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil prices fluctuated weakly. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for Asian customers, and the expectation of a US - Russia summit has cooled the market's concern about supply disturbances. Crude oil prices are in a weak - shock state [21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output increased slightly, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory accumulated. Due to the expected production restrictions for the military parade, the inventory pressure is not large, and steel prices are expected to maintain a shock trend [23]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. The supply is stable, the demand is still resilient, and the export of steel products continues to contribute to the increase. It is expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and the impact of northern military - parade production restrictions should be focused on in the medium term [24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal contract rose, and the rapeseed meal contract fell. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased, and the export sales slightly exceeded expectations. The supply of distant - end soybeans is expected to be tight, and Brazilian discounts are rising. Soybean meal prices may shock and strengthen, but the upward momentum is relatively weak [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell, and the soybean oil contract was flat. The production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has increased, but the implementation of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy provides support. Palm oil prices may shock and adjust [28]. 3.16 Metal Main Varieties' Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. on August 7 [29]. 3.17 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. from August 6 to August 7 [31][34].

Core Insights - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to 2.23 million tons in July, the highest level since December 2023, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase [1] - Palm oil production in July increased by 8.3% to 1.83 million tons, the highest level in 11 months [1] - Export volume is projected to grow by 3.2%, but demand from overseas buyers remains weak [1] - The anticipated increase in supply and weak demand may exert pressure on benchmark prices during the peak production period, typically in October [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Indonesia's crude palm oil production is expected to reach 50 million tons by 2025, which is higher than the industry forecast of 48.2 million tons [1] Group 2 - The expected production increase reflects a positive outlook for the palm oil industry in Indonesia, suggesting potential growth opportunities for stakeholders [1] - The difference between the expected production and the industry forecast highlights a potential upward revision in market expectations for palm oil supply [1]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia has increased the reference price for crude palm oil in August to 3,864.12 MYR per ton, leading to an increase in export tax from 8.5% to 9% [1] Group 1: Price Changes - The reference price for crude palm oil in August is set at 3,864.12 MYR per ton, which is a significant increase from July's price of 3,730.48 MYR per ton [1] - This price increase reflects a notable upward trend in the palm oil market [1] Group 2: Export Tax Implications - The increase in the reference price results in the export tax rising from 8.5% in July to 9% in August [1] - Malaysia employs a tiered export tax system, where the tax rate is 3% when palm oil prices are between 2,250 and 2,400 MYR per ton, and a maximum tax rate of 10% is triggered when prices exceed 4,050 MYR per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Group 1 - The core issue in the Indonesian palm oil market is the potential loss of market share to Malaysia if tariff negotiations with the United States fail [1] - There is speculation about whether Malaysian palm oil futures will continue to rise amid these uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the competitive dynamics between Indonesia and Malaysia in the palm oil sector, particularly in the context of international trade policies [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Indonesian palm oil exports is a critical factor influencing market conditions and pricing strategies [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that participants believe it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range this year as inflation and activity outlooks become clearer [1] - The U.S. soybean export net sales for the week ending July 3 are expected to be between 300,000 to 600,000 tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, and between 50,000 to 400,000 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] - In June, the national consumer price index in China rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban prices up by 0.1% and rural prices down by 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The average transaction price for low-sulfur coking coal in Lishi, Shanxi, reached 1,123 yuan per ton, an increase of 123 yuan per ton compared to June 25, due to market sentiment and lack of participation from coal mines in recent auctions [1] - The sugar production in Brazil's central-south region is expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons, with sugarcane crushing down by 9.7% year-on-year to 44.24 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production is projected to increase to 19.5 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] Group 3 - The total inventory of refined oil at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports rose by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day for the week ending July 4, while strategic petroleum reserve stocks increased by 23,800 barrels to 403 million barrels [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange, adjusting the U.S. copper import tariff benchmark from 25% to 50% [1] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is advancing a plan to "reduce internal competition and cut capacity," aiming to establish a platform company for debt acquisition of excess capacity, which will help balance supply and demand [1] - The international oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil closing at $68.29 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel, while the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.07 million barrels [1] - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold rising by 0.17% to $3,322.50 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce, influenced by trade tensions prompting central banks to increase gold purchases [1]