Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also intensifying, increasing the probability of rainfall in Indonesia and its surrounding areas [1]. - High - latitude rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the dry season, which will affect rubber production [1]. - Weather conditions such as rainfall and temperature in various rubber - producing areas around the world will impact the progress of rubber tapping and production. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **Climate Dynamics** - The Nino3.4 index is - 0.7 (- 0.2), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is + 2.7. The La Nina phenomenon is strengthening, and it may last until December 2025 to February 2026 and transition to ENSO neutral from January to March 2026 [1]. - The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is - 0.63 (- 0.17), indicating a strengthening of the IOD and an increased probability of rainfall around Indonesia [1]. - The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be in Phase 1, with little effect on the growth of rain clouds in Indonesia, and it will develop towards the East Indian Ocean by the end of the month [1]. - **China's Producing Areas** - Yunnan: Affected by cooling, it is approaching full suspension of tapping. Output in the northern part will be limited by low - temperature, and the southern part will have a slight temperature increase but limited output [1]. - Hainan: The temperature is currently suitable. There has been sporadic rainfall recently, and the dry content of glue has decreased. Tapping is expected to gradually stop in late December. There will be less rain and a temperature increase in the next week, followed by another temperature drop [1]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas** - Thailand: The north and northeast have less rain, and the south has significantly less rain in December compared to November, with little impact on raw material output. The north and northeast will cool down at the end of the month, and some areas may gradually stop tapping [2]. - Vietnam: Precipitation in November was higher than average. The south will have less rain, and the central - east will be slightly affected by showers [2]. - Cambodia: Precipitation in November increased year - on - year. There will be less rain in the future, but the temperature drop at the end of the month may reduce output [2]. - Myanmar: There will be less rain in the future, and the surface soil moisture in the south is low. There will be a significant temperature drop at the end of the month [2]. - Laos: It is currently in the peak - production period. Less rain and a temperature drop will slightly affect output [2]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas** - Indonesia: The La Nina phenomenon and the Indian Ocean Dipole are strengthening, increasing the probability of rainfall. The first half - week will have mostly cloudy to light rain, with heavy rain possible in some areas, and the rain will weaken in the second half - week. The impact of rainfall on tapping in December is moderate, weaker than in November [4]. - Malaysia: The Malay Peninsula is in the peak of the rainy season. Rainfall from November to early December affected tapping, and the rain has weakened in the past two weeks but still has an impact [4]. - Philippines: Rainfall in November was slightly higher than the historical average. Rainfall in December decreased, and the temperature is suitable for tapping [4]. - **South Asian Producing Areas** - India: There was intermittent rain in southern Kerala last week due to a tropical depression. Areas in the southwest and northeast had little rain. Low temperatures in Maharashtra and the northeast may lead to a gradual stop of tapping [5]. - Sri Lanka: Floods have receded, and production is recovering [5]. - **West African Producing Areas** - Cote d'Ivoire: It is gradually emerging from the secondary rainy season. Cumulative precipitation in November increased year - on - year and is approaching normal levels. There were local showers in the past week, slightly affecting tapping [5]. 3.2 Summary of Rainfall Data in Producing Areas - The report provides monthly cumulative precipitation, year - on - year changes, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly differences, and forecast precipitation for the current and next weeks in major natural rubber producing areas. For example, in Yunnan's Xishuangbanna, the monthly cumulative precipitation is 0.1 mm, a year - on - year decrease of 98% [6]. 3.3 Monitoring of Sudden Disasters in Producing Areas - There is a tropical depression disturbance in western Indonesia, which may increase rainfall in Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula [8]. - The weather in southern Thailand has improved, and the impact of floods has subsided. Short - term heavy rainfall in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra in Indonesia requires attention to secondary disaster risks [9]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - The report presents precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomalies, temperature comparisons, and average wind speed for each major rubber - producing area [11][17][38]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - About 80% of the world's natural rubber is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Vietnam. Thailand accounts for about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, while Indonesia accounts for about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. Cote d'Ivoire accounts for over 10% of the output [198]. - **Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber Trees and the Impact of Weather** - The phenological period of rubber trees includes "leaf - falling period - budding period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". New leaves are sensitive to weather and disasters before maturity, which can affect the tree's latex - producing ability. Short - term supply is affected by weather, and long - term supply depends on planting area and tree - age structure [207]. - **Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas** - Global natural rubber supply is seasonal, with a high - production period from September to November and a low - production period from February to March. The tapping and non - tapping times vary by latitude, with higher - latitude areas having earlier tapping starts and shorter tapping periods [209].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the impact of weather on natural rubber production in major global producing areas, with a particular emphasis on rainfall. It provides detailed weather forecasts and rainfall data for various regions, highlighting how weather conditions such as temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events can affect rubber tree growth, tapping progress, and overall production [2][203]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **China**: Yunnan is in the pre - stop - tapping transition, with low temperatures and a coming cold snap that may affect production. Hainan is in the pre - stop - tapping up - volume stage, with suitable temperatures and reduced rainfall conducive to tapping [2]. - **Thailand**: Northern and northeastern regions have light rain and smooth tapping. The southern region's flood has eased, but new rainfall is expected [2]. - **Vietnam**: Rainfall decreased significantly in the coming week after being affected by rain in November [2]. - **Other Regions**: Different regions such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Asia, and West Africa have their own unique weather conditions and impacts on rubber production [5][6]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides a table of weekly precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas, including current month cumulative precipitation, year - on - year change, last week's cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, and precipitation forecasts for this week and the next week [8][10]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - Tropical low - pressure activity is low in the Northern Hemisphere winter, but there are low - pressure disturbances in western Indonesia and the Indian Ocean, which may bring rainfall [11]. - Floods in southern Thailand and the Malay Peninsula have subsided, but some areas still have high water levels [12]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **China**: Detailed precipitation and soil humidity forecasts for Yunnan and Hainan, as well as tracking of various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, and soil humidity anomalies [21][44]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: Similar to China, it includes precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as tracking of meteorological indicators for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [64][94]. - **Malay Archipelago**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, along with tracking of meteorological indicators for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [120][143]. - **South Asia**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for India and Sri Lanka [148][170]. - **West Africa**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for the Ivory Coast [173][180]. 3.5 Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia (about 80%), with Thailand having about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, and Indonesia having about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. The Ivory Coast accounts for over 10% of the output [194]. 3.6 Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather - The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages, and the new leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and pests. Weather affects rubber production in different periods, and different diseases and pests may occur in each stage [203][204]. 3.7 Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. The opening and closing times of tapping vary by region due to climate differences [205].

*免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 海南橡胶：中国天然橡胶产业龙头。 冠农股份：主营皮棉、棉籽，棉花加工能力超15万吨。 12月4日，世界气象组织发布最新预报称，未来三个月出现弱拉尼娜现象的概率为55%。截至11月中 旬，海洋和大气指标已达到拉尼娜状态的临界阈值。尽管拉尼娜现象通常会带来短暂的降温影响，但许 多地区仍将继续出现偏暖天气。拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现 象。 拉尼娜现象与厄尔尼诺现象相反，是太平洋赤道海域水温异常降低现象，与干旱、洪水等自然灾害有关 联。 中信期货指出，拉尼娜可能导致南美洲中南部和美国中北部大豆产量减产；而巴西、美国、阿根廷为全 球大豆主产国，三国合计贡献全球80%以上的大豆产量。另外，其还表示，中国和东南亚传统割胶期大 概率遭遇拉尼娜，降水较多或影响割胶进度。 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Rubber (601118.SH) has received an insurance payout of 25.8138 million yuan due to revenue losses caused by rubber price fluctuations, as stipulated in the insurance agreement for the 2025 rubber revenue insurance project [1] Group 1 - The insurance payout was triggered during the period of July 2025 due to price volatility in the rubber market [1] - The company has recorded the insurance compensation as other income in its accounting [1]

新华财经曼谷11月30日电（记者常天童）泰国橡胶管理局（RAOT）近日预测，泰国南部地区持续降雨 和洪水将对橡胶生产造成严重影响，预计产量损失超过4.3万吨。 泰国总理府发言人西里蓬29日说，泰国南部洪灾死亡人数总计为162人，其中宋卡府死亡人数达126人。 目前天气已出现好转，降雨正在减弱，灾区积水有望在3到5天内排干。 （文章来源：新华财经） 一旦情况恢复正常，泰国橡胶管理局将派遣官员调查受灾橡胶种植园的损失情况，并评估橡胶树的受损 程度，为橡胶种植户提供密切指导，帮助他们在洪水退去后恢复种植园，减少长期损失，并根据橡胶种 植户的福祉实施补救措施。 此外，泰国开泰研究中心28日发布报告，预计2025年泰国南部洪灾将影响橡胶和棕榈油的生产，一个月 内将造成66.98亿泰铢的损失。 报告称，橡胶和油棕的主要种植区位于泰国南部。其中橡胶种植面积占全国总种植面积的57%，主要产 区位于素叻他尼府、宋卡府和洛坤府；油棕种植面积占全国总种植面积的86%，主要产区位于素叻他尼 府、甲米府和春蓬府。洪灾造成的橡胶和棕榈油生产总损失估计为66.98亿泰铢。其中，橡胶减产8.3万 吨，价值44.56亿泰铢；棕榈油减产34万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Rubber (601118.SH) is poised to leverage significant opportunities arising from the operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port while enhancing its rubber business and optimizing land resource utilization [1] Group 1: Land Development Strategy - The company currently possesses over 3 million acres of land on Hainan Island [1] - Future plans include comprehensive development and utilization of land resources to increase rental income and industrial cooperation capabilities [1] - The company aims to unlock the potential of underutilized land and activate the value of construction land and idle assets [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Hainan Rubber announced a non-public issuance of exchangeable bonds by its controlling shareholder, aiming to raise up to 2.1 billion RMB [1] - Hainan Rubber's controlling shareholder, Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Investment Holding Group, holds approximately 2.754 billion A-shares, accounting for 64.35% of the company's total share capital [1] - The non-public issuance of exchangeable bonds will have a term of no more than 5 years [1] Group 2 - For the year 2024, Hainan Rubber's revenue composition is 97.79% from agriculture and 2.21% from other businesses [1] - As of the announcement date, Hainan Rubber's market capitalization is 24.5 billion RMB [1]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Xinhuh Futures and Guangdong Guangken Rubber Group has successfully provided price risk protection for the rubber industry in Guangdong through an innovative "order purchase + futures" model from 2022 to 2024 [1][2] - The "Stabilization Action" project in 2024 aims to provide price risk protection for 3,000 tons of natural rubber, covering over 690,000 acres and benefiting more than 2,000 rubber farmers, with a project amount of 52.65 million yuan [1] - The project has also been extended to 2025, with a cumulative insurance of 4,000 tons of natural rubber, contributing to the sustainable development of the local rubber industry [1] Business Model - The "order purchase + futures" model aims to provide sales channels for farmers while ensuring stable procurement channels for enterprises [2] - Guangken Rubber purchases natural rubber from farmers at market prices and buys out-of-the-market options from Xinhuh Ruifeng, allowing for potential profit distribution to farmers based on actual rubber output [2] - This model has resulted in a win-win situation, providing farmers with stable sales channels and additional income through secondary settlements, while ensuring stable raw material supply for enterprises [2] Economic Impact - From 2022 to 2024, Xinhuh Futures has hedged a total of 8,720 tons of natural rubber, providing 5.4889 million yuan in additional income to local rubber farmers through secondary settlements [2] - The successful collaboration serves as a replicable example for the futures industry to support the real economy, demonstrating the potential of financial tools to address industry pain points and offering risk management solutions for other agricultural products [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Rubber (601118.SH) has received an insurance payout of 22.9241 million yuan due to revenue losses caused by rubber price fluctuations, as stipulated in the insurance agreement for the 2025 rubber revenue insurance project [1] Group 1 - The insurance payout was triggered during the period of June 2025 due to price volatility in the rubber market [1] - The company has recorded the insurance compensation as other income in its accounting [1]

Core Points - Hainan Rubber (601118) closed at 5.95 yuan on November 4, 2025, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 25.463 billion yuan [1] - The company announced it would provide a joint guarantee of up to 29.2149 million USD (approximately 207.2154 million yuan) for its subsidiary Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited to meet operational funding needs and repay bank loans [1] - The guarantee will be shared between Hainan Rubber and Sinochem International based on their shareholding ratios of 68.10% and 29.20%, respectively [1] - As of the announcement date, Hainan Rubber had already provided a guarantee balance of 1.76975 billion yuan for Halcyon Agri, including this new guarantee [1] - Halcyon Agri's latest asset-liability ratio stands at 76%, exceeding the 70% threshold [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, the company has completed the necessary board and shareholder approvals for the guarantee amount provided to its subsidiary [1] - The total external guarantee balance for the company and its subsidiaries is 4.73844 billion yuan, accounting for 48.12% of the latest audited net assets attributable to shareholders [1] - The guarantee balance for the controlling subsidiary is 1.8372574 billion yuan, representing 18.66% of the total [1] - There are no overdue guarantees reported [1]