Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strengthening of cooperation between China and Brazil in various sectors, including infrastructure, medicine, and renewable energy, as evidenced by the signing of a memorandum of understanding [1] - The China-Brazil Climate Change and Energy Technology Innovation Research Center aims to facilitate academic exchanges, talent training, and industrial cooperation between the two countries, focusing on climate change and energy technology innovation [2][3] - Brazil is impressed by China's rapid advancements in technology, particularly in electric vehicles and artificial intelligence, attributing this progress to China's strategic planning and funding support [2] Group 2 - The collaboration between China and Brazil has led to successful technology transfers, such as the adaptation of biodiesel technology from China to Brazil, showcasing the mutual benefits of their partnership [3] - The recent focus on health technology, including the application of AI in hospitals, marks a new area of cooperation, with plans to explore the relationship between health and climate change in the coming years [3]

Macro Analysis - The current macro variables affecting the market are internal demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[3] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate pressure on the fundamentals and market risk appetite, but the relationship remains competitive[3] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[3] Policy Insights - The policy focus is on the effectiveness of existing policies and the introduction of incremental reserve tools, with a dynamic calibration approach expected[3] - The emphasis is on promoting the effectiveness of existing policies, particularly concerning employment and systemic risks, while external shocks remain uncertain[3] Investment Strategy - A strategic bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks is recommended, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive stocks[3] - A "barbell" asset allocation strategy is suggested, focusing on resilient dividend assets in finance, resources, and public utilities, while technology remains a key theme[3] Company Highlights - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH) is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution and trade breakthroughs[9] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 713 million yuan, driven by cost control and increased procurement efforts[14] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with significant growth targets set for 2028[21] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Zhuoyue New Energy, risks involve policy advancement not meeting expectations and significant fluctuations in raw material prices[12]

Macro Analysis - The current market is influenced by three main macro variables: domestic demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[9] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate market risk appetite pressures, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[9] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[9] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks is advised, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive markets[10] - A-shares are expected to experience high volatility, emphasizing the need to capture structural opportunities[10] - Suggested asset allocation includes resilient dividend assets in finance, resource sectors, and public utilities, with technology remaining a key focus[10] Company Highlights - Excellence New Energy (688196.SH) is a leader in biodiesel production, with a capacity of approximately 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution[12] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.4% increase, with net profit rising by 12.49% to 713 million yuan[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with gold production projected at 85 tons[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Excellence New Energy, risks involve trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations impacting profitability[16] - For Yipuli, risks include raw material price volatility and project execution delays affecting revenue growth[21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the biodiesel industry, indicating a potential increase in stock prices relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [5][30]. Core Insights - The price center for HVO and SAF continues to rise, with domestic Ucome prices slightly narrowing. The international SAF landed price is reported at $2065.90 per ton, a slight decrease of 2.90% from the previous week, while the HVO offshore price is at 2146.65 yuan per ton, down 4.01% [1]. - Domestic waste oil and gutter oil prices have increased, with average prices for waste oil at 6940 yuan per ton (up 130 yuan) and gutter oil at 6500 yuan per ton (up 80 yuan) [2]. - The international crude oil market has shown volatility, impacting biodiesel prices. Despite cost-driven increases in Ucome, the price rise is insufficient to cover raw material costs, leading to reduced enthusiasm among producers [3]. - Recent export data for May indicates a subdued performance, with Ucome export volumes around 60,000 tons, and a notable trend of re-importing Ucome from Hong Kong [3]. - Germany has introduced a draft law to revise biofuel targets, aiming to curb fraud in the sector, which may lead to significant price increases for biofuels and compliance certificates [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The report highlights the upward movement in HVO and SAF prices, with domestic Ucome prices influenced by raw material costs. The price dynamics in Europe show a slight decrease in FAME prices, while the demand in the HVO/SAF market remains supportive [1][3]. Export Performance - The report notes that the export performance of biodiesel products has been lackluster, with specific attention to the role of Hong Kong as a key transit point for Ucome [3]. Regulatory Developments - The introduction of new regulations in Germany is aimed at enhancing the integrity of the biofuel market, which could lead to increased prices and stricter compliance requirements [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and others, as they are expected to benefit from increased demand and improved raw material supply [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The basic chemical sector is currently at a historical low valuation, with PB percentile below 10%, indicating a favorable configuration for investment opportunities [1][2] - The Chinese chemical industry has become the largest market globally, with a market share of 48%, and is expected to shift towards high-end development and globalization [3][10] Core Insights and Arguments - The investment strategy for the basic chemical sector in mid-2025 focuses on "new trends continuing to strengthen," emphasizing marginal changes, trade connections, and performance realization [2] - The market is particularly attentive to oil prices, with key concerns regarding OPEC's production increase and U.S. shale oil supply, as both factors may impact future production levels [4][19] - The basic chemical sector is under pressure but may have reached a bottom in terms of new capacity, inventory, demand, and valuation, with many sub-sectors showing low PB percentiles [5][18] Sub-sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, promising sub-sectors include platinumene and methomyl, benefiting from favorable supply-demand dynamics without new capacity additions [6][7] - The sweetener market is highlighted for its stable supply-demand structure, with a concentrated supply base enhancing market stability and potential [8] Investment Opportunities - Focus on domestic substitution opportunities in sectors with large market space and high industry barriers, such as lubricant additives, which have a favorable competitive landscape [11] - The tire industry is identified as a key area for overseas expansion, with significant global demand projected for 2024 [12] - Biodiesel presents investment opportunities driven by policy, particularly in regions like the EU, where production capacity is limited [13][14] - The refrigerant industry is expected to benefit from supply-side policy constraints, leading to prolonged price increases [15] Risks and Challenges - The basic chemical sector faces risks including raw material price volatility, trade policy changes, and potential demand pressure, which could delay the clearing of excess capacity [19] - Specific risks include the realization of capacity in sectors like potassium fertilizer, which is characterized by oligopolistic market dynamics [18] Additional Important Insights - The sweetener market's supply structure is concentrated among a few manufacturers, providing stability and potential for growth [8][9] - The compound fertilizer sector is noted for its unique market dynamics, focusing on channel markets rather than just investment construction [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the biodiesel industry, particularly highlighting the potential growth in demand for biojet fuel and marine biofuels, suggesting a focus on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a notable increase in HVO/SAF prices, with external SAF prices rising by 7.71% to $2127.65 per ton and HVO prices increasing by 8.69% to $2236.40 per ton [1]. - Domestic prices for waste cooking oil and gutter oil have also risen, with average prices reported at 6810 yuan per ton and 6420 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - Significant industry news includes Singapore's record sales of bio-blended marine fuels and the U.S. EPA's proposed renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, which are expected to increase biodiesel blending requirements significantly [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - External SAF and HVO prices have seen substantial increases, with SAF at $2127.65 per ton and HVO at $2236.40 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.71% and 8.69% respectively [1]. - European Ucome prices reached €1301.85 per ton, up 4.94%, while China's Ucome price was $1114.50 per ton, up 1.36% [1]. Domestic Market - Domestic waste cooking oil and gutter oil prices have increased, with waste cooking oil averaging 6810 yuan per ton and gutter oil at 6420 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Developments - Singapore's bio-blended VLSFO sales reached a new high of 95,800 tons, and the U.S. EPA's proposed rules aim to raise biodiesel blending to 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, a 67% increase from 2025 [3]. - The EU is launching a subsidy program to promote SAF usage, potentially increasing demand significantly [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with substantial biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and others, due to expected demand growth and increased raw material supply [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the collaboration between Junxin Co. and Changsha Digital Group to promote the integration of waste incineration and green computing, enhancing operational efficiency and revenue growth [8]. - It highlights the trend of decreasing capital expenditures in the waste incineration sector, leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends [12]. - The report discusses the stable growth and high dividends in the water utility sector, driven by water price reforms that reshape growth and valuation [16]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is experiencing a shift towards maturity, with capital expenditures declining and free cash flow turning positive in 2023, continuing to improve in 2024 [12][13]. - The report notes that the waste incineration sector is adopting new business models, including partnerships with data centers, which enhance profitability and return on equity (ROE) [14]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hai Luo Chuang Ye, Hanlan Environment, and Green Power, among others, based on their strong dividend potential and operational efficiency [4]. - It suggests focusing on companies with high dividend payout ratios and robust cash flow, such as Junxin Co. and Green Power, which are expected to maintain or increase their dividends significantly in 2024 [12][13]. Water Utility Sector - The water utility sector is projected to see stable growth, with a focus on water price reforms that enhance profitability and ensure reasonable returns on investment [18]. - The report highlights specific companies like Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment as key players benefiting from these reforms, with expected high dividend yields [18]. Environmental Equipment - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 73% and an increase in market penetration [26][27]. - It emphasizes the importance of transitioning to electric sanitation vehicles as part of the industry's modernization efforts [22]. Biofuel and Lithium Battery Recycling - The report indicates a recovery in the profitability of biodiesel, with prices increasing by 7.1% week-on-week, leading to positive margins [36]. - It also discusses the challenges in lithium battery recycling, with declining metal prices impacting profitability, but notes slight improvements in margins [39][40].

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with a gradual improvement in profitability observed since late 2023, driven by a recovery in downstream demand and a slowdown in new capacity additions [8][12][14] - In the first quarter of 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a revenue of 29,439.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while total profit was 115 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year, indicating a bottoming out of the industry's economic performance [14][19] - The overall gross margin for the chemical industry in the first quarter of 2025 was 17.55%, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.25% but an increase of 0.85% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting stable profitability [17][18] Group 2 - The report highlights that 2024 saw a majority of the 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector report revenue growth, with notable increases in modified plastics, tires, and electronic chemicals, while potassium fertilizer and lithium battery chemicals faced significant declines [19][20] - The profitability of various sub-industries showed significant divergence, with 17 out of 33 sub-industries reporting profit growth, particularly in the chlor-alkali, rubber products, and compound fertilizer sectors, while carbon fiber and lithium battery chemicals experienced substantial profit declines [20][21] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on sectors with guaranteed demand, such as agricultural chemicals, particularly phosphate and potash industries, which are expected to maintain favorable conditions due to resource scarcity and supply constraints [8][26] Group 3 - The report indicates that fixed asset investment in the chemical industry has begun to decline, which is expected to alleviate the pressure of overcapacity in the future, while demand recovery in sectors like automotive and home appliances is anticipated to drive growth [8][12][14] - The chemical industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in overall economic conditions, with profitability likely to rebound from the bottom, driven by both supply and demand factors [8][12][14] - The report maintains an investment rating of "in line with the market," recommending attention to integrated industry leaders such as Wanhua Chemical, Longbai Group, and Baofeng Energy, as well as opportunities in agricultural chemicals and new materials [8][26]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/06/19 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油期货连续上涨，后续行情怎么看？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年6月18日，大连商品交易所豆油期货主力y2509合约上涨72元 ，最新价达8040元，表现颇为 亮眼。近期豆油期货价格上涨，背后有着多重因素。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，阿根廷2024/25年度大豆产量因干旱降至4900万吨，同比减少6% ，巴西大豆收割 进度滞后，全球大豆库存消费比降至28%，创五年新低，大豆供应紧张传导至豆油。 在需求端，随着全球经济复苏，食品加工行业对豆油需求稳定增长。同时，生物柴油需求的提升也 极大拉动了豆油消费，美国上调2025年生柴掺混目标，欧盟、美国等地区生物柴油政策鼓励使用植 物油 ，豆油作为生物柴油重要原料，需求大增。 此外，国际原油价格在6月17日显著上涨，截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货 价格涨幅为4. ...

龙岩卓越新能源股份有限公司（以下简称"卓越新能"）是一家专业利用废油脂从事生物柴油生产的上市 公司，投入资金重点解决了低品质废弃油脂杂质鉴别与分离、废弃油脂的高效转化技术难题。2025年第 一季度，卓越新能实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约5663万元，同比增长 135.16%。 浙江嘉澳环保科技股份有限公司重视生物柴油业务中的细分品种生物航煤，预计生物航煤的全球需求有 望快速增长。目前，该公司已取得ISCC及适航批准，产能逐步释放，生物航煤已成为公司转型关键方 向。 使用"地沟油""潲水油"等餐废油脂为原料制成生物柴油是国内企业的主流选择之一，也是国家鼓励的产 业发展方向之一。 "生物柴油作为一种清洁、可再生能源，不仅有助于减少温室气体排放，还能促进能源结构的多元化， 对推动国际航运燃料的绿色转型具有重要意义。"湖南大学经济与贸易学院副院长曹二保教授对《证券 日报》记者表示，"2025年，受国际油价上行等因素影响，生物柴油业务受到多方青睐，国内企业产供 销积极性明显增强，部分优质企业的经营业绩也有明显增长。" 国内餐废油脂规模几何？有多少可转化为生物柴油？对此，湖南惠农科技有限公司大数据分析 ...