Core Viewpoint - The UK government has announced mandatory poultry housing measures across England starting from November 6 to combat the escalating avian influenza outbreak [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Government Measures - The new measures require all poultry keepers with more than 50 birds to house all poultry and birds, excluding certain special cases like zoo birds [1] - A bird flu control zone has been established, mandating stricter biosecurity measures for all poultry keepers to mitigate the risk of further outbreaks [1] Biosecurity Measures - The biosecurity measures include reporting changes in egg production, mandatory record-keeping, shoe disinfection, and ongoing cleaning and disinfection of poultry housing [1] Current Situation - There has been a continuous increase in avian influenza cases among both domestic and wild birds in England, leading to the decision to expand housing measures statewide [1] - Recent reports indicate that high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks have been rapidly spreading across various poultry farms and wild bird populations, posing a significant threat to bird populations [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [71]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 1.36% [13][14]. - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the industry currently facing losses, and anticipates further price declines in the short term [3][20]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, particularly for yellow-feathered chickens, while white-feathered chickens continue to face price pressures [4][34]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, despite ongoing losses in the dairy sector [5][39]. - The planting industry is experiencing short-term supply pressures, but there is potential for improvement if grain production decreases significantly [6][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing positive price trends for certain species [58]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2889.08 points, down 1.36% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - National pig prices are at 11.82 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.82%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.90 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [20][21]. - The industry is expected to continue facing losses, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, showing slight increases, while profits for parent stock chickens have improved [32][34]. - The report suggests that if consumer demand recovers, poultry prices may rebound [34]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.12 yuan/kg, with expectations for price increases as the consumption season approaches [5][39]. - The dairy sector is under pressure, but there are signs of potential recovery in raw milk prices next year [5][39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2174.29 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop releases and external uncertainties [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring grain prices and potential production declines [46]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with specific fish prices showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and certain fish species [58][63].

Group 1 - The agricultural and fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a price increase of 0.4% and a trading volume of 696,000 yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 207 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks included Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Yisheng Shares, and Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, with increases of 3.28%, 3.13%, and 1.66% respectively [1] - Conversely, stocks such as Xiaoming Shares, COFCO Technology, and Zhongshui Fishery experienced declines of 4.07%, 3.53%, and 1.8% respectively [1] Group 2 - The 14th World Pig Industry Expo will be held from October 18 to 20, 2025, in Changsha, showcasing over 800 global enterprises and focusing on new technologies in the pig farming industry [1] - New Hope Liuhe invested 20 million yuan in September to establish a biotechnology company, enhancing its feed production and aquaculture business [1] - The pig farming industry is facing supply pressure with ongoing price declines, while poultry farming is impacted by avian influenza, creating uncertainty in breeding stock [2] Group 3 - The pig industry is entering a regulatory phase, with authorities aiming to stabilize prices through capacity reduction, although short-term pressures remain due to increased market supply [2] - The animal health sector is seeing improved competition dynamics, with clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines enhancing market expectations [2] - The pet food market is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic brands gaining traction despite limited impacts from tariffs on exports [2]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The rapid decline in pig prices has created a resistance to price drops, with secondary fattening entering the market causing a slight rebound, but the overall trend remains downward, and the entire industry is currently in a state of loss [2][3] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter this week is 128.25 kg per head, which remains in a historically high range, indicating that inventory levels have not significantly decreased despite falling prices [2][3] - In the coming months, pig slaughter is expected to increase month-on-month, and with enhanced control over secondary fattening, the seasonal accumulation space is limited, suggesting further downward pressure on pig prices [2][3] Group 2: Poultry Industry - As temperatures rise, the consumption of animal protein has been relatively weak, leading to continuous price adjustments in the poultry sector, with the overall industry showing signs of bottoming out [3] - The recent weak pricing environment has increased losses for slaughter enterprises, while the enthusiasm of farmers to sell has further pressured prices [3] - Yellow feather chicken prices have remained relatively strong due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction, indicating potential for better profitability as consumer demand gradually improves [3] Group 3: Cattle Industry - As of October 10, the price of live cattle in Shandong Province is 27.17 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.11% month-on-month but an increase of 13.78% year-on-year, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption peak season approaches [4] - The average purchase price for milk cows in major production areas is 3.04 yuan/kg, remaining stable month-on-month but down 2.08% year-on-year, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize and recover in the coming year [4] - Recent increases in calf and live cattle prices suggest the potential for a new cattle cycle, with the industry outlook expected to improve steadily [4] Group 4: Planting Industry - The recent harvest of new corn has caused some short-term price impacts, while ongoing negotiations regarding soybean imports between China and the U.S. create uncertainty in soybean prices [5] - The planting sector is expected to stabilize at the bottom, with the potential for improved conditions if there is a substantial reduction in grain production due to global weather disturbances [5] - The country continues to promote agricultural revitalization by increasing grain yields, which may enhance the planting industry's outlook [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in livestock and feed industries, with a focus on identifying quality companies for investment opportunities [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock segment, is experiencing significant price fluctuations and profitability challenges, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the beef and dairy markets as seasonal demand increases, while also noting the ongoing pressures in the pig farming sector due to price declines [3][4][5][6]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if crop yields decrease significantly [6][49]. Summary by Sections Swine Farming - Current pig prices are in a downward trend, with the average weight of pigs at 128.25 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price drops [3][22]. - The report anticipates continued increases in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space, suggesting further price declines [3][22]. - Long-term prospects remain positive for leading companies in the sector, with recommendations to focus on low-cost producers like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is stabilizing, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing resilience due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction [4][36]. - The report notes that while white feathered chicken prices are under pressure, overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve with a recovery in consumer demand [4][38]. Livestock - Beef prices are expected to rise as the consumption season approaches, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [5][42]. - The report indicates that the beef and dairy sectors are currently facing losses, but a recovery is anticipated as demand increases and supply contracts [5][43]. Planting Industry - The planting sector is experiencing price volatility due to new corn harvests and ongoing uncertainties regarding soybean imports [6][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and suggests that a significant reduction in crop production could enhance the sector's outlook [6][49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various feed types [6][62]. - The aquaculture sector is showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing, indicating a potential recovery in this segment [6][62].

Core Insights - The report indicates a downward trend in pig prices due to increased supply and policy guidance, leading to accelerated capacity reduction in the industry [1][7][18] - The overall agricultural sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.18% increase week-on-week, while the pig farming segment is experiencing significant losses [11][36] Pig Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a 0.33% month-on-month decline in September [19] - Pig prices have dropped significantly, with the average price on October 9 being 11.89 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.16% [28][29] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 152.15 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 301.04 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 10 [36] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to outbreaks of avian influenza, but there are investment opportunities in the white-feathered chicken market [37] - The average price for white-feathered meat chickens was 6.88 CNY/kg on October 10, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.15% [40] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by an increase in livestock numbers and new product launches [47] - Significant growth in vaccine approvals has been noted, with various companies making advancements in vaccine development [47] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and soybean meal have increased, indicating a positive trend in the seed industry [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening food security and promoting the commercialization of biological breeding [50] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports have decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, amounting to 834 million CNY in August 2025 [56] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [57]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with a focus on selecting low-cost quality enterprises [2][22]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [12][13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to falling prices, with an average price of 10.91 yuan/kg, leading to a potential reduction in production capacity [21][22]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining resilient due to improved downstream demand [3][37]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [4][42]. - The planting industry is experiencing pressure from supply and demand, but potential price increases could occur if there are significant reductions in grain production [5][49]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, and the aquaculture sector is showing upward trends in pricing [62][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The national average pig price has dropped below 11 yuan/kg, with the industry currently in a loss-making state. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.48 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [2][21]. - Short-term expectations indicate further price declines, but medium to long-term prospects remain positive for quality enterprises [22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chicken is 6.88 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The profitability of parent breeding chickens has improved, while broiler profitability remains under pressure [3][36]. - The sector is expected to stabilize as consumer demand gradually recovers [37]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.20 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption season approaches. The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in inventory due to ongoing financial pressures [4][42]. - The beef cycle is anticipated to begin anew, with a focus on the synergy between meat and dairy production [43]. Planting Industry - Recent fluctuations in grain prices are noted, with corn prices at 2215.71 yuan/ton and soybean prices at 3987.37 yuan/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in crop yields occur [5][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in seed technology and production efficiency [49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry remain stable, while aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [62][68].

Core Points - The Netherlands has reported an outbreak of avian influenza at a farm in the northeastern region, leading to the culling of approximately 71,000 poultry, marking the return of the virus after a six-month hiatus [1] - The affected farm is located in Aa en Hunze, Drenthe province, with additional farms within a 3-kilometer radius undergoing screening [1] - The Netherlands, a major exporter of poultry products in Europe, has faced multiple outbreaks since 2021, resulting in the culling of over 7 million birds [1] Summary by Sections - **Outbreak Details** - An avian influenza outbreak occurred at a farm in northeastern Netherlands, resulting in the culling of about 71,000 birds [1] - This is the first outbreak in six months, with the last incident reported in March at a farm in Putten, where approximately 27,000 birds were culled [1] - **Preventive Measures** - Authorities are conducting screenings of six additional farms within a 3-kilometer radius and have imposed restrictions on the transport of poultry and related products within a 10-kilometer radius [1] - **Impact on Poultry Industry** - The Netherlands has over 2,000 poultry farms, exporting more than 6 billion eggs annually [1] - From 2021 to 2023, the country has experienced numerous outbreaks, leading to significant culling of poultry [1] - **Future Vaccination Plans** - In response to the resurgence of avian influenza, the Netherlands initiated a pilot vaccination program in March, which will gradually expand to more farms until early 2027 [2]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pig farming industry, recommending continued investment in pig farming despite recent price declines due to supply pressures [1][7][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices, with the average price for market pigs at 12.67 yuan/kg, down 3.65% week-on-week [7][32][33] - The report indicates ongoing losses in pig farming, with self-breeding and purchased pig farming yielding losses of 74.11 yuan/head and 236.57 yuan/head respectively [7][37] Industry Overview - The agricultural sector index has decreased by 1.97% week-on-week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07% [11] - Since January 2, 2025, the agricultural sector has seen a total increase of 16.95%, compared to a 15.63% increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [12][11] - The report notes that the pig farming sector is currently in a downward cycle, with supply pressures gradually being released [21] Pig Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased by 0.80% month-on-month in August, indicating a potential reduction in future supply [22][7] - The average weight of market pigs at the time of sale is reported at 128.55 kg [22][8] - The report emphasizes that the current breeding and purchasing sentiment is declining due to stricter environmental regulations and market conditions [17][21] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price for white feathered chickens is reported at 6.90 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.29% week-on-week [38][41] - The report notes that the poultry industry is facing uncertainties due to ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza in overseas markets [38][39] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant growth in vaccine approvals and product launches [46] - The report highlights that the industry is seeing a recovery in sales, with some vaccines showing substantial year-on-year growth [46] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight increases, indicating a potential upward trend in agricultural input costs [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the need for advancements in agricultural biotechnology [50] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports have decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, with a total export value of 834 million yuan in August 2025 [55][56] - Domestic sales of pet food continue to grow, with significant increases reported on e-commerce platforms [57] - The report suggests that companies with strong domestic sales and innovative product offerings are likely to gain market share [59]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with a focus on potential opportunities in specific sub-sectors like pig farming and beef production [2][19]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight decline of 1.97% this week, while the overall market indices have performed better, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [13][14]. - In pig farming, there is an expectation of continued price pressure due to supply-demand imbalances and policy-driven capacity reductions, suggesting a cautious outlook in the short term but potential for recovery in the medium to long term [3][20]. - Poultry farming is experiencing weak prices, but there is optimism for recovery as consumer demand improves, particularly for yellow feathered chickens [4][28]. - The beef market is entering a consumption peak, with expectations for price increases, while dairy farming is facing ongoing capacity reductions due to financial pressures [5][36]. - The planting sector is under pressure from fluctuating commodity prices, but there is potential for improvement if significant crop reductions occur [6][42]. - Feed and aquaculture prices are stabilizing, with some positive trends in aquatic product prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for these segments [56][61]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is currently at 12.45 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [19]. - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.55 kg, showing a slight increase from the previous week [19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises in the sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][20]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chickens is 6.90 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.29% from last week [28]. - The profitability for parent stock chicken farming has improved, while broiler chicken farming remains under pressure [28]. Beef and Dairy - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.24 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.69% [36]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in beef prices as the consumption season approaches, while dairy prices are expected to stabilize in the coming year [5][36]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2288.57 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.06% [42]. - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance grain yields and the potential for improved sector performance if crop yields decline significantly [6][43]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are at 3.34 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.30% [56]. - Aquaculture prices are showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in shrimp prices [56][61].