消息面上，滔搏发布公告称，于2025/26财政年度第三季度，集团零售及批发业务的总销售金额按年同 比取得高单位数下跌。截至2025年11月30日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少1.3%，较去年同期 减少13.4%。 滔搏(06110)跌近5%，截至发稿，跌4.81%，报2.97港元，成交额3777.31万港元。 中金研报指出，三季度以来运动鞋服市场表现相对较弱，3QFY26滔搏零售及批发业务总销售金额同比 下滑高单位数，与公司此前预期一致。考虑需求偏弱及主力品牌仍在调整期，下调滔搏FY26/27年EPS 预测4%/13%至0.20/0.23元。 ...

消息面上，滔搏发布公告称，于2025/26财政年度第三季度，集团零售及批发业务的总销售金额按年同 比取得高单位数下跌。截至2025年11月30日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少1.3%，较去年同期 减少13.4%。 中金研报指出，三季度以来运动鞋服市场表现相对较弱，3QFY26滔搏零售及批发业务总销售金额同比 下滑高单位数，与公司此前预期一致。考虑需求偏弱及主力品牌仍在调整期，下调滔搏FY26/27年EPS 预测4%/13%至0.20/0.23元。 智通财经APP获悉，滔搏(06110)跌近5%，截至发稿，跌4.81%，报2.97港元，成交额3777.31万港元。 ...

中金发布研报称，考虑需求偏弱及主力品牌仍在调整期，下调滔搏(06110)FY26/27年EPS预测4%/13%至 0.20/0.23元，当前股价对应14/12倍FY26/27年P/E，维持跑赢行业评级。相应下调目标价7%至3.88港 元，对应17/15倍FY26/27年P/E，较当前股价有24%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 分渠道看，季内零售渠道表现好于批发，其中线下渠道在低基数下环比1HFY26略有改善。公司持续关 注店铺运营效率，期内继续关闭低效门店，关店速度环比放缓，11月末直营门店毛销售面积同降 13.4%、较8月底减少1.3%。线上渠道受基数影响，同比增速较1HFY26有所放缓。 库存和折扣方面，公司动态把握新旧货品销售节奏，11月末库存总额同比下降并维持良好周转效率。受 线上渠道占比提升与促销环境影响，季内零售折扣继续同比加深，但加深幅度环比有所收窄。 12月以来需求仍有波动，管理层维持审慎判断 受天气波动及节日错期影响，12月以来终端表现继续走弱，但零售折扣受益于低基数支持同比基本持 平。管理层对短期环境保持审慎判断，更加重视折扣与健康运营管理，并预计全年业绩指引达成存在挑 战，但2HFY2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for FY26/27 down by 4% and 13% to HKD 0.20 and HKD 0.23 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating despite a 7% reduction in target price to HKD 3.88, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current stock price [1]. Group 1 - The company reported a high single-digit year-on-year decline in total sales for retail and wholesale businesses in Q3 FY26, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% compared to the end of August [2]. - The overall demand in the sports footwear and apparel market has been relatively weak, aligning with the company's expectations for Q3 FY26 [3]. - Retail channels performed better than wholesale during the quarter, with offline channels showing slight improvement compared to 1H FY26, while the company continued to focus on store operational efficiency by closing underperforming stores [3]. Group 2 - The company has managed to reduce total inventory year-on-year while maintaining good turnover efficiency, although retail discounts have deepened compared to the previous year due to the increased proportion of online channels and promotional environment [3]. - Since December, demand has continued to fluctuate, with management maintaining a cautious outlook due to weather variations and holiday timing, while retail discounts have remained stable year-on-year [4]. - Management emphasizes the importance of discount and healthy operational management, acknowledging challenges in achieving annual performance guidance, but expects cost optimization in 2H FY26 to yield positive results [4].

Macro Strategy - The "Innovation Bull" market is entering a consolidation phase, driven by a positive cycle of capital pricing and industrial implementation under policy guidance [1][13] - Current macro policies are still being implemented, and the "KOT" valuation system is gradually improving, with medium to long-term funds expected to enter the market annually [1][13] - Market liquidity and valuations have improved, with public fund net values exceeding 1, indicating potential for accelerated fund issuance [1][13] - The market is likely to extend towards technology sectors such as computing power, chips, robotics, and energy storage as the "Innovation Bull" evolves into a comprehensive bull market [1][13] Fixed Income - The report discusses how to identify arbitrage opportunities in the Sci-Tech Bond ETF component bonds, focusing on bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or higher and smaller issuance sizes [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity and credit quality in selecting bonds for inclusion in the ETF, with a preference for bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises [2][14] - The report highlights the potential for price appreciation of bonds that are included in the ETF due to passive fund inflows [2][15] Industry Analysis - The report identifies the "brain" as a key component in the development of embodied intelligence, with various companies exploring different technological paths [4][16] - The embodied intelligence market is expected to grow rapidly, with significant investment in brain technology, which is seen as the most critical and challenging aspect of the market [4][16] - Key players in the market include companies like 品茗科技, 银河通用, and Tesla, among others, with a recommendation to focus on these related stocks [4][16] Company Recommendations - 派能科技 (688063) is projected to recover from impairment and exchange rate impacts, with expected net profits of 1.0/5.0/7.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [5][17] - 巨子生物 (02367.HK) has received approval for its first type I recombinant collagen product, which is expected to drive growth in the medical beauty sector, with projected net profits of 25.66/32.14/40.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6][18] - 联合动力 (301656) reported a slight decline in net profit but maintains a positive long-term outlook, with expected net profits of 11.3/16.8/25.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [7][21] - 杰瑞股份 (002353) continues to show growth potential with projected net profits of 30/35/40 billion yuan for 2025-2027, despite short-term delivery challenges [8][22]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Taobo (06110), a leading domestic sports footwear and apparel retailer, has advanced digital capabilities and improved operational efficiency, although short-term sales are impacted by consumer environment and foot traffic fluctuations. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.301 billion, 1.483 billion, and 1.648 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE of 15 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Financial Performance - For FY2026H1, the company's revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year to 12.3 billion yuan, with a slight decline in gross margin by 0.1 percentage points to 41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 9.7% to 790 million yuan, with a net profit margin down by 0.3 percentage points to 6.4%. The company declared an interim dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 102.2%, emphasizing shareholder returns [2]. Brand Performance - The main brand Nike is expected to improve, while the company continues to expand brand partnerships for long-term growth. In FY2026H1, revenue from the main brand and other brands decreased by 4.8% and 12.2% to 10.8 billion and 1.4 billion yuan, respectively. Adidas showed a 7.8% revenue growth in the Greater China region, while Nike's revenue declined by 10% [3]. Business Model Analysis - Retail business outperformed wholesale, with e-commerce showing better performance than offline sales. Retail revenue in FY2026H1 fell by 3% to 10.6 billion yuan, while wholesale revenue dropped by 20.3% to 1.6 billion yuan. The company closed 332 stores, optimizing its channel structure, and the total sales area decreased by 14.1% [4]. E-commerce and User Engagement - The company's e-commerce sales grew rapidly, with a double-digit increase in FY2026H1. The company is enhancing its e-commerce capabilities by leveraging offline stores and expanding into various online channels. The total number of members reached 89.1 million, with member contributions accounting for 92.9% of retail sales from offline stores and WeChat mini-programs [5]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of August 2025, the company's inventory stood at 5.83 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days at 150 days, an increase of 1.7 days. The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.35 billion yuan, 1.7 times the net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating strong cash flow management [6]. Future Outlook - For FY2026, the company is expected to see a slight decline in revenue, with net profit remaining stable year-on-year. The ongoing fluctuations in offline foot traffic and faster online growth are considered in this outlook [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Taobo (06110), a leading domestic sports footwear and apparel retailer, has advanced digital capabilities and improved operational efficiency. However, short-term impacts from the consumer environment and foot traffic fluctuations have affected terminal sales. The firm forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for FY2026-FY2028 to be 1.301 billion, 1.483 billion, and 1.648 billion yuan respectively, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE of 15 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Financial Performance - For FY2026H1, the company's revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year to 12.3 billion yuan, with a slight decline in gross margin by 0.1 percentage points to 41%. The deepening retail discounts negatively impacted gross margin, while the increase in retail business proportion and support from brand partners provided positive contributions. The net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 790 million yuan, with a net profit margin decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 6.4%, maintaining relative stability in profit margins. The board has declared an interim dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 102.2%, emphasizing shareholder returns [1]. Brand Performance - The main brand Nike's performance is expected to improve, while the company continues to expand brand partnerships for long-term stable growth. In FY2026H1, revenue from the main brand and other brands decreased by 4.8% and 12.2% to 10.8 billion and 1.4 billion yuan respectively. Adidas is expected to perform relatively well in the Greater China region, with a reported revenue growth of 7.8% for H1 2025 (currency neutral), while Nike's revenue in the same region declined by 10% for FY2026Q1 (currency neutral). The company is also focusing on deepening its brand layout in running and outdoor segments, collaborating with brands like Norda, Soar, Ciele, and Norr na to meet differentiated consumer demands [1]. Business Model Analysis - Retail business outperformed wholesale business, with e-commerce performing better than offline sales. In FY2026H1, retail revenue decreased by 3% to 10.6 billion yuan, with offline stores undergoing optimization and same-store traffic declining by double digits. Conversely, online retail sales grew by double digits. Wholesale revenue fell by 20.3% to 1.6 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced orders from offline channels caused by foot traffic fluctuations. The company closed 332 offline stores, optimizing its channel structure, resulting in a total of 4,688 stores as of the end of August 2025, with total sales area down by 14.1% but same-store sales area up by 6.5% [2]. E-commerce Growth - The company's e-commerce platform sales grew rapidly, demonstrating excellent omnichannel e-commerce operational capabilities. In FY2026H1, retail online sales, including both public and private domains, achieved double-digit growth. The company continues to strengthen its e-commerce system, leveraging offline stores to extend online boundaries and building channels such as Douyin live streaming, Xiaohongshu, WeChat mini-programs, and instant retail. Additionally, the company is enhancing its refined operational capabilities in platform e-commerce and content e-commerce [2]. Consumer Focus - The company is consumer-centric, focusing on user operations. As of the end of August 2025, the total number of members reached 89.1 million, with a continuous expansion of the membership base. During the same period, the retail total from offline stores and WeChat mini-programs contributed 92.9% of total sales, with repeat member sales accounting for 60% of overall sales, maintaining a high and stable sales contribution [3]. Inventory and Cash Flow - The inventory situation is stable, with a cash flow return that is excellent. As of the end of August 2025, the company's inventory amounted to 5.83 billion yuan, down by 4.7% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days at 150 days, an increase of 1.7 days year-on-year. The company has effectively controlled its total inventory. The net cash flow generated from operating activities during the period was 1.35 billion yuan, 1.7 times the net profit attributable to the parent company, indicating a healthy cash return capability in an uncertain market environment [4]. Future Outlook - For FY2026, the firm expects a slight decline in revenue, with net profit attributable to the parent company remaining roughly stable year-on-year. The company anticipates continued fluctuations in offline foot traffic, while online growth is expected to accelerate. Overall, considering the fluctuations in the consumer environment, the company forecasts a slight decline in revenue for FY2026, with net profit remaining stable year-on-year [5][6].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tmall Industry and Company Overview - Tmall is the largest Adidas distributor globally and the second-largest Nike distributor, holding a market share of nearly 16% in China's sports goods market, second only to Bao Sheng's 11% [3][4] - For the fiscal year 2024, Tmall's revenue is expected to approach 29 billion yuan, with a net profit exceeding 2.2 billion yuan, indicating its leading position in the industry [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Tmall has established a comprehensive sports ecosystem, offering sneaker maintenance, sports training, and social activities, which enhances member loyalty. The membership has reached 81 million, with a repurchase rate of 70% [2][4] - Recent management changes and strategic adjustments at Nike and Adidas have reduced inventory pressure, presenting an upward recovery opportunity for Tmall, particularly as Adidas sees revenue growth in Greater China [2][5][6] - Despite profit pressure in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, a revenue increase of 5-10% could lead to a significant profit rebound. The market's shift towards consumer sectors and the high dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks are favorable for Tmall [2][7] - Hillhouse Capital's privatization of Belle International has improved Tmall's operational efficiency through digital transformation, with Hillhouse currently holding about 35% of Tmall's shares [2][8] Operational Improvements - Tmall has implemented digital procurement, replenishment, and inventory management measures, significantly optimizing inventory management and achieving better turnover days than comparable companies like Bao Sheng International [2][9] - Post-pandemic, Tmall adjusted its channel strategy by closing smaller stores and focusing on larger ones, reducing the number of stores to approximately 5,800. This has led to increased single-store sales and profitability, with net profit expected to grow by at least 20% annually from 2025 to 2026 [2][10] Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in the third quarter of last year, primarily due to the consumer environment and Nike's management change. However, the new CEO is focusing on strengthening relationships with franchisees and supporting local product designs [2][11] - Tmall's dividend performance is strong, with an average payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past three years and a current dividend yield of 7.2%, significantly higher than other companies in the industry [2][12] - Future profit forecasts predict net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a net profit growth rate exceeding 20% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026. The current valuation is low at 11-12 times earnings, with a projected valuation of around 15 times in 2025, indicating a potential 30% growth in market value [2][14]

Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - The company has developed a product pipeline consisting of 16 oncology candidate drugs, including 10 in clinical stages, indicating strong innovation potential[2] - The licensing agreement with Merck grants exclusive commercialization rights for Pimicotinib and related products in China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, with a total agreement value of $605.5 million, including an upfront payment of $70 million[2] - The core product IMM01 is the first clinical-stage CD47-targeted molecule in China, showcasing the company's competitive edge in small molecule drugs[2] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Projections - The total market capitalization of 康哲药业 is HKD 337 million, with a projected revenue recovery to double-digit growth in 2025[2] - 阿里巴巴's market capitalization stands at HKD 25,576 million, with a projected PE ratio of 30.78 for 2024, indicating relative valuation advantages[2] - The company expects a significant increase in sales volume, with a target of 1 million units by 2026 for 零跑汽车, reflecting a growth rate of over 88% year-on-year in August deliveries[3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Market Trends - The company plans to acquire a 60.8% stake in 深圳众为创造科技有限公司 for approximately HKD 99.5 million, enhancing its product portfolio and operational capabilities[2] - 阿里巴巴's "One Taobao" strategy has led to a 20% year-on-year increase in DAU, with the flash sale business experiencing a 200% growth in order volume[2] - The education sector is witnessing policy improvements, with 卓越教育集团 benefiting from a strong demand outlook and a projected revenue increase of 188.9% year-on-year in H1 2025[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.9% for Q2 2025, driven by the collaboration between Ciele Athletics and Tabo [2][5]. - The overall retail sales in June 2025 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand in the market, although growth rates for major consumer categories have slowed down [2][44]. - The report highlights the resilience of the luxury goods sector, with Richemont's sales growing by 3% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the jewelry segment [63]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an unaudited revenue of $444 million, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with the footwear manufacturing segment contributing $433 million, also up by 2.5% [15]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $775 million, reflecting a 0.7% year-on-year growth [15]. Market Dynamics - The SW textile and apparel sector saw a slight increase of 0.24% in the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, while the SW light industry manufacturing sector rose by 0.08% [16]. - The textile manufacturing sub-sector increased by 2.43%, while the apparel and home textile sub-sector rose by 0.29% [16]. Industry Data Tracking - In the first half of 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $705.19 billion and $734.59 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and a slight decline of 0.2%, respectively [37]. - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry grew by 6.1% year-on-year in June 2025, indicating robust demand in the jewelry market [44]. Consumer Behavior - The report notes that online retail channels performed slightly better than the overall retail market, with a 6.0% year-on-year growth in online sales of physical goods in the first half of 2025 [43]. - The demand for sports and entertainment products remains strong, with a year-on-year growth of 22.2% in the first half of 2025 [44].