Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. Considering the strong support from the raw material side, it is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro - factors on the lead price [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,925 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 1.27% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.94% to 2,017 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific summary was made in the content, only historical basis data trends were presented [13][14][15]. 2. Raw Materials and Primary Lead - **Raw Materials**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 550 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrates is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 4, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 82.7 yuan/ton [29]. - **Primary Lead Production**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.88%. A refinery in Henan reduced its weekly output due to equipment failure and is expected to resume normal production this week. A refinery in North China is expected to end maintenance and resume production in mid - to - late July. Another smelter in East China plans a long - term maintenance in the fourth quarter [30][34]. - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total annual production capacity is 3.29 million tons, the monthly production capacity is 260,000 tons, and the weekly production capacity is 63,300 tons. The total output in the week of July 4 was 49,065 tons, in the week of July 11 was 47,815 tons, and this week's expected output is 49,065 tons [35]. 3. Recycled Lead - **Waste Battery Price**: As of July 11, the average price of waste batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The tight supply of waste batteries has not improved, and the purchase price has not changed significantly [43]. - **Recycled Lead Smelter Profit**: As of July 11, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 408 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 636 yuan/ton [49]. - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: As of July 10, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The raw material inventory was 126,500 tons, and the finished product inventory was 22,400 tons [53]. - **Recycled Lead Operating Rate**: The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.70 percentage points to 35.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of recycled lead was 37,000 tons, showing a decline. A refinery in Anhui that was under maintenance has recently restarted the furnace but has not yet produced lead. A refinery in Inner Mongolia has no plan to resume production in the near future, and the operating rate fluctuates slightly [54]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 70.76%. The domestic electric bicycle and battery markets have not improved significantly. Dealers are mainly consuming inventory, and enterprise orders are weak. The export pressure of lead batteries is increasing as the US tariff suspension period is about to end [59]. 5. Import and Export - As of July 4, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of July 11, the import profit was - 741.56 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [64]. 6. Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 63,400 tons, showing an increase. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, and inventory has accumulated due to the large spot - futures price difference [75]. - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of July 11, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 55,100 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 249,400 tons, showing a decrease [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from January 2024 to May 2025 [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream enterprises are gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with spot procurement starting to pick up. It is recommended to mainly use buying hedging on dips for lead products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - **Spot**: On July 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.04/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose by 100 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells rose by 50 yuan/ton to 10,575 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,005 lots, down 2,644 lots from the previous trading day, and the holding volume was 52,261 lots, up 644 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,280 yuan/ton and a low of 17,125 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex - factory; in Hunan, smelters' quotes remained at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract; in Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory had difficulty in closing deals; in Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory. The lead price was in a volatile consolidation, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, with regional transactions in the electrolytic lead market being fair [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of July 9, the LME lead inventory was 255,100 tons, a decrease of 2,975 tons from the previous trading day [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - As the lead - acid battery consumption season approaches, the rising price has stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm with a significant "buy - on - rising" feature. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit the lead price. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On July 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 26.77 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 75 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium rose 75 yuan/ton to 17100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 3, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17235 yuan/ton and closed at 17245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34446 lots, an increase of 6922 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52878 lots, an increase of 1624 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17315 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17195 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17220 yuan/ton and closed at 17305 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The lead price is oscillating strongly. Downstream enterprises' operations are in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. Some enterprises are making necessary inventory preparations, and the spot trading in the primary lead market is fair [2] Inventory - On July 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons from the same period last week. As of July 3, the LME lead inventory was 265900 tons, a decrease of 2250 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoint - As the traditional consumption peak season for lead batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the probability of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low, and there may be a possibility of a short squeeze. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.26/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,403 lots, an increase of 8,197 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 19,560 lots, a decrease of 8,713 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,005 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex-factory sales, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507/2508 contracts for ex-factory sales. In the Hunan region, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, but the trading volume was weak. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui regions offered premiums of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Individual traders in Guangdong and Tianjin regions had firm quotes and were waiting and seeing. The lead futures price rose slightly during the day, and downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading volume was light [2] Inventory - On June 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 24, the LME lead inventory was 277,375 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3]

Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demands from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price should be treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -31.32 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,967 lots, an increase of 1,410 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,907 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,965 yuan/ton and the lowest point at 16,760 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On June 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of June 19, the LME lead inventory was 287,425 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Treat the lead price with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ore. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The current lead price should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract range is between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$18.06/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead or at a discount of 180 - 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for rigid demand transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi tried to hold prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were traded at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. As the lead price continued to weaken, apart from a small number of downstream enterprises making purchases at low prices, most enterprises still made purchases mainly for rigid demand. The spot market improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Futures - On May 20, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 24,386 lots, a decrease of 2,507 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 22,798 lots, a decrease of 4,590 lots compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a maximum of 16,880 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On May 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, a change of 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 20, the LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]