Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and it's difficult for overseas inventories to grow. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - environment remains favorable. [4] Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $212.89/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,400 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 128,753 lots, and the open interest was 120,693 lots. The highest price was 22,440 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 1,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, down 1,800 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 966 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 96.29 million yuan [1] - The non-recurring net profit also showed a loss of 74.55 million yuan, with basic earnings per share at -0.30 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. reported a mixed performance in its Q3 2025 financial results, showing revenue growth but a net loss in the quarter [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 4.776 billion yuan, an increase of 11.26% year-on-year [1] - Q3 2025 net loss was 11.233 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 27.2242 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 13.689 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.19% [1] - Net profit for the first three quarters was 514.207 million yuan, a significant increase of 1110.26% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Insights - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (000751.SZ) reported a revenue of 13.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached 51.4207 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 1110.26% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 42.1509 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 572.43% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters: 13.689 billion yuan, up 19.19% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 51.4207 million yuan, up 1110.26% year-on-year [1] - Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses: 42.1509 million yuan, up 572.43% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of approximately 13.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately 51.42 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 1110.26% [1] - The basic earnings per share reached 0.0318 yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 1123.08% [1] Group 2 - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. is 6.4 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Title: "Zinc: Export Window Opens, Ratio May Return" [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] Group 2: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Industrial Supply and Demand - **Mine End**: This week, the loss of imported zinc ore continued to widen compared to last week. Smelters mainly purchased domestic zinc ore, and the import trading volume remained light. The processing fee for imported zinc ore remained high, but with the decline of domestic processing fees, some offers for imported zinc ore have been reduced. If the price ratio is repaired later, it may suppress the processing fee of imported zinc ore. The average weekly TC of SMM Zn50 domestic zinc ore decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The total inventory of major domestic ports increased by 4.13 tons to 38.06 tons this week [4]. - **Smelting End**: Recently, the zinc price has declined and the domestic TC has decreased, narrowing the smelting profit. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and the smelter's profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, with high enthusiasm for production. In October, although some smelters in China carried out maintenance, the overall refined zinc production in China may increase significantly due to the resumption of production of previously maintained smelters. Recently, the price ratio has worsened, the loss of refined zinc imports has widened, and the spot export window has opened, but there is still a loss for warehouse delivery. If the export warehouse - delivery window opens, attention should be paid to the volume and frequency of exports [4]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption still needs to be monitored [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of October 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 16.27 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from October 12 and an increase of 1.25 tons from October 9. The LME zinc inventory on October 16 was 3.8 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from October 10 [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In October, domestic smelters resumed and increased production, with a significant increase in supply. However, the consumption side did not improve significantly, and the domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the Shanghai zinc price. Overseas, due to low inventory, the Back structure continued, and affected by the capital side, the LME zinc price was relatively strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the opening time of the export window. If the price ratio continues to worsen, an arbitrage strategy of selling LME zinc and buying Shanghai zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Part of the profitable short positions can be liquidated, and short positions can be re - established at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: According to the export situation, a strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc can be pre - arranged [4]. Group 3: Market Data - The report mentions information such as spot premiums, basis of mainstream consumption bases, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [6][12][15][16] Group 4: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to July 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 7.1918 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4649 million tons or 6.91%. Among them, overseas production was 4.8518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3559 million tons or 7.92%, and China's production was 2.231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.109 million tons or 4.89%. In July, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1003 million tons or 10.28%. In September, the domestic zinc concentrate production was 0.3145 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, the expected production is 0.3009 million metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32% [29]. - **Zinc Ore Imports**: From January to August, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.06%. In October, the price ratio worsened, and the loss of imported zinc concentrate continued to widen. Although some previously locked - price zinc concentrates and long - term contract goods arrived at ports, the import volume may decrease due to losses [38]. - **Total Domestic Ore Supply**: Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and the imported zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. In October, the domestic zinc concentrate supply may decrease. Attention should be paid to the change of imported TC. Considering that domestic smelters are about to start winter storage, the demand for ore increases significantly. If the imported TC is further adjusted upwards, the inflow of imported ore may increase [41]. - **Zinc Ore Processing Fees**: In October, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3650 yuan/ton. On October 17, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate decreased by 100 yuan to 3400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton [45]. Global and Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Global Refined Zinc**: From January to July 2025, the global refined zinc production was 7.9109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.0923 million tons or 1.15%; the global refined zinc consumption was 7.7945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.0206 million tons or 0.26%. The global refined zinc had a cumulative surplus of 0.1164 million tons. In July, the global refined zinc production was 1.1993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the demand was 1.1691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.87%, with a surplus of 0.0302 million tons [50]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply**: In September, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. The production of SMM China's refined zinc in September was 0.6001 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0261 million tons or 4.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. It is expected that the production in October will be 0.6227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0226 million tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 0.2355 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. In September and October, the import window remained closed, and if the export window opens later, domestic refined zinc may be exported. In October, the domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month [53][63] Downstream Demand - The report also mentions data related to the primary processing of zinc, including the operating rate and inventory of downstream enterprises, as well as data on real estate construction, land transaction premium rates, infrastructure investment, automobile production, and white - goods production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [66][72][83][87][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is facing downward price pressure across the entire supply chain, from mining to smelting, leading to compressed profit margins. This unusual "internal weakness and external strength" market structure is reshaping global zinc trade flows and presenting unprecedented challenges to the domestic zinc industry [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly up from around 100,000 tons earlier this year, indicating a clear supply-demand imbalance with increased supply and weak consumption [2]. - Since August, a rare divergence in domestic and international zinc markets has emerged, characterized by a strong rise in LME zinc prices from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices have fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton, showing weakness [2][6]. - The extreme price disparity has caused the Shanghai-LME ratio to drop to 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [2][7]. Processing Fees and Market Behavior - There is a notable divergence in processing fees, with imported zinc concentrate processing fees rising while domestic processing fees are declining. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [8][9]. - The decline in domestic processing fees is attributed to the worsening Shanghai-LME ratio, leading domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic ore, tightening its supply and allowing suppliers to increase prices [10]. Production and Consumption Trends - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year, with expectations of slight improvement in September as production normalizes post-summer [12]. - Domestic refined zinc production reached a record high of 620,000 tons in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [14][15]. - Zinc consumption remains weak, with actual consumption in August at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [18]. Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - Macro-economic data supports the view of weak zinc consumption, with significant declines in infrastructure and real estate investments, which are closely linked to zinc demand [19]. - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased significantly, reaching 160,000 tons by September 20, with projections suggesting it could rise to around 250,000 tons by year-end [20]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, which may prevent significant price drops in the near term [21]. Future Market Predictions - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply and weak consumption, yet the market has not shown a significant downward trend due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [23][24]. - Short-term predictions indicate that while global economic conditions may support metal prices, domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases in the domestic market [25].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly increasing from the year's low of around 100,000 tons, indicating a clear imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic zinc market, characterized by a surge in supply and weak consumption [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since August, a rare divergence has emerged in the domestic and international zinc markets, creating an "internal weakness and external strength" scenario, with LME zinc prices rising from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton [1][3]. - The extreme divergence in prices has led to a significant drop in the Shanghai-London ratio, reaching a low of 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [1][4]. Processing Fees - There has been a notable divergence in processing fees for zinc concentrates, with imported processing fees rising while domestic processing fees have declined. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [5][6]. - The primary reason for this divergence is the deteriorating Shanghai-London ratio, which has led domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic concentrates, tightening supply and reducing processing fees for domestic materials [7]. Production and Consumption - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, remaining stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year. The cumulative production from January to August reached 2.75 million tons, also a 3% increase year-on-year [9]. - Domestic refined zinc production in August reached 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [10]. - Zinc consumption in August was weak, with actual consumption at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [12][13]. Inventory Trends - As of September 20, domestic zinc ingot inventory reached 163,100 tons, an increase of nearly 90,000 tons from the year's low, with expectations that it may reach around 250,000 tons by year-end [14]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, indicating a potential for price pressure if the inventory trend reverses [15]. Market Outlook - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply, high processing fees, record domestic smelting output, and weak consumption. However, the market has not shown significant weakness due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [16][17]. - Short-term predictions suggest that the macroeconomic environment, with major economies entering a rate-cutting cycle, may provide support for metal prices, although domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases [18].