Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded weakly. The weakening US dollar and the concentrated low inventory of LME zinc with signs of a squeeze contributed to the rebound of zinc prices both at home and abroad. However, due to the continued inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and insufficient downstream purchasing, the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was limited, and the rebound height is expected to be restricted [3][4][11] Summary by Directory Trading Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,320 yuan/ton to 22,515 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,729.5 dollars/ton to 2,834 dollars/ton, an increase of 104.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.18 to 7.94. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,193 tons to 65,917 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 19,325 tons to 81,500 tons, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 113,200 tons, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) rebounded weakly, with a weekly increase of 0.87%, closing at 22,515 yuan/ton. LME zinc also rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.83%, closing at 2,834 dollars/ton. In the spot market, after the zinc price rebounded, downstream purchasing weakened, and the market remained dull. As of August 8th, LME zinc inventory decreased, while SHFE and social inventories increased. In terms of the macro - environment, the US economic data was mixed, and domestic import and export data in July exceeded expectations with positive changes in inflation data [6][7][8] Industry News - As of August 8th, the average weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and that for imported zinc concentrates increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government. Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q2 2025 was 251,600 tons, 19% higher than in Q2 2024, and its 2025 self - owned zinc production guidance was adjusted to 940,000 - 980,000 tons [12] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, price ratios, spot and LME premium/discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, smelter profits, refined zinc production and import/export, and downstream enterprise开工率 [13][15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has approved the registration of three products, allowing them to be used for futures contract delivery starting from the date of the announcement [1] Group 1: Product Registrations - Jiangsu Binxin Steel Group Co., Ltd. has received approval for the registration of its "Xinyong Special Steel" brand wire rod products [1] - Henan Jinli Jinxin Co., Ltd. has been granted registration for its "Jijin" brand zinc ingots, with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, adhering to standard pricing [1] - Yunnan Xinyu Nonferrous Electrolytic Co., Ltd. has had its "Yunxiang" brand tin ingots registered, with a registered production capacity of 6,000 tons, also following standard pricing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and remain bearish in the medium term. The supply is increasing while the demand is in the traditional off - season. Although the short - term inventory accumulation is moderate and the macro - environment provides some support, the long - term excess supply will lead to price pressure. It is advisable to hold short positions in the medium - long term and maintain long - short positions within the quarter [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last week was 22,885, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. The closing price of last night's session was 22,715, with a night - session decline of 0.74%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,829, with a weekly increase of 0.18% [7] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 152,086, an increase of 1,020 compared to the previous week. The position was 129,228, an increase of 13,260. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,275, a decrease of 10,132 compared to the previous week, and the position was 190,675, an increase of 3,903 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,928 to 13,289; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 4,789 to 59,419; social inventory increased by 4,800 to 98,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 to 115,775; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,000 [7] - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Imported zinc ore processing fees remained at $55/ton; imported zinc ore smelting profit increased by 73 to - 1,765 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore processing fees remained at 3,800 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 154 to 462 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price increased by 120 to 4,050 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased but remains low [10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit is stable and at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; the refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level in the same period; among downstream industries, the galvanized operation rate has increased, while the die - cast zinc operation rate has decreased and is at a medium - low level in history [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premium has significantly declined, and overseas premium is relatively stable. The structure of LME CASH - 3M has changed significantly [18][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually shifting to a backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: Inventory at a low level shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [33][38] - **Futures**: The domestic position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [39] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [42][43] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [44] - **Import and Export**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The monthly operation rate of downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [56][59] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural incremental growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - There are fluctuations in European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, which may have an impact on the zinc market [74][75][76]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, the moderate rebound of inflation and the better - than - expected retail data in the US highlighted economic resilience. Domestically, the good performance of H1 GDP was offset by concerns about insufficient policy stimulus in H2. The statement of optimizing supply by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18th ignited market enthusiasm [3][4][11]. - Fundamentally, domestic refinery production increased, with stable operation of new projects, slowdown in processing fee growth, good refinery profits, and sufficient raw materials. The supply was on the rise. The zinc market remained stronger overseas than in China, and imports were difficult to increase. In the demand side, it was the off - season for consumption, and the actual demand was weak. The galvanized plate consumption confidence was boosted, but the actual order increment was limited. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide were weak. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the spot premium further declined, while the inventory accumulation slowed down [4]. - Overall, the domestic and foreign macro - environment was moderately positive, and the fundamentals were weak. The market hoped that the supply optimization could improve the surplus situation of the zinc market. In the short term, the zinc price was mainly influenced by macro and policy expectations, and the futures price was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, it was still unclear how the supply optimization policy would affect the zinc industry chain, so caution was needed when chasing up the price [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE zinc decreased from 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th to 22295 yuan/ton on July 18th, a decline of 85 yuan/ton. LME zinc increased from 2738 dollars/ton to 2824 dollars/ton, an increase of 86 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.17 to 7.89, a decline of 0.28. The SHFE inventory increased by 4649 tons to 54630 tons, the LME inventory increased by 13850 tons to 119100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 60 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2509 first declined and then rebounded. Supported by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the black - series prices rose, which was beneficial to the zinc price. It found support around 22000 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly, closing at 22295 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LME zinc price stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2824 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.14% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream procurement motivation weakened, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc prices and premiums varied in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangdong, and Tianjin [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of July 18th, the LME zinc inventory was 119100 tons, an increase of 13850 tons from last week. The SHFE inventory was 54630 tons, an increase of 4649 tons. As of July 17th, the social inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10th. The inventory in Guangdong and Tianjin increased significantly, while that in Shanghai decreased slightly [8]. - In the macro - aspect, in the US, the CPI in June increased moderately, the core CPI was lower than expected, the PPI reached a new low, and the retail sales exceeded expectations. There were also various international trade and policy news, such as Trump's tariff - related statements and trade negotiations among countries. In China, the H1 GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries were about to be introduced [8][9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 18th, the average weekly TC of domestic Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 7.27 dollars/dry ton to 73.75 dollars/dry ton. Excellon Resources was preparing to restart the production of the Mallay silver - lead - zinc mine in Peru next year, which had produced 6 million ounces of silver, 45 million pounds of zinc, and 35 million pounds of lead from 2012 to 2018 [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, the spot premium, the LME premium, the inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, the processing fees of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the import profit and loss of zinc mines, the domestic refined zinc production, the smelter profit, the net import of refined zinc, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [14][16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - A trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. After the reaction of macro - bullish factors, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to changes in social inventory [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was -$21.64 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan per ton to 22,270 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 90 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan per ton to 20 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined by 140 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 20 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On July 7, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton and closed at 22,090 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 160,506 lots, an increase of 6,935 lots, and the open interest was 126,532 lots, a decrease of 1,468 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,040 - 22,360 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 89,100 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 110,600 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The absolute price declined, increasing downstream point - pricing enthusiasm and improving market transactions, but the spot premium did not improve significantly. After the absolute price rose, spot market transactions became more sluggish, and the spot premium dropped rapidly [4] - **Supply**: In June, supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The expected output in July remains as high as 590,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The impact of the smelting strike in Peru overseas has been resolved [4] - **Inventory**: The increase in social inventory has widened, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. The finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has started to decline, and a negative feedback from invisible inventory may occur [4] - **Cost**: The TC at the mine end has further increased, expanding smelting profits and further boosting smelting enthusiasm, resulting in continuous supply pressure [4]

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is experiencing slow inventory accumulation, with short - term price fluctuations and a mid - to long - term bearish outlook. The supply is increasing while the demand is entering the traditional off - season, leading to a potential surplus situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.00%, and the night - session closing price was 22,240 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%. LmeS - zinc3 last week closed at 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 1.55% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 153,571 lots, a decrease of 72,253 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 128,000 lots, a decrease of 14,428 lots. For LmeS - zinc3, the trading volume was 4,385 lots, a decrease of 8,080 lots, and the open interest was 205,849 lots, a decrease of 4,129 lots [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 874 tons to 7,246 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1,731 tons to 45,364 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,900 tons to 82,400 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 6,900 tons to 112,325 tons [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible zinc ingot inventory has increased but remains relatively low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are also stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level, refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level compared to the same period, and the operation rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have declined and are at a medium - to - low historical level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have recently rebounded from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][17] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [19] - **Inventory**: Inventories are showing a stable upward trend from a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a medium level compared to the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory [20][21][22] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down [29] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [31] - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [34] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [39] - **Downstream**: The monthly downstream operation rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history. The downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory show different trends [40][41] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [54] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [56]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low level. Geopolitical conflicts eased, the Fed's rate - cut expectation strengthened, and the market risk preference improved. Overseas refinery strikes and potential downward adjustment of domestic supply increments led to a short - term upward trend in zinc prices. However, it's currently the off - season for consumption, and there are still concerns about inventory build - up and technical pressure, so caution is needed when chasing the price increase [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - SHFE zinc rose from 21,845 yuan/ton on June 20th to 22,410 yuan/ton on June 27th, an increase of 565 yuan/ton. LME zinc rose from 2,649 dollars/ton to 2,778.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 129.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.25 to 8.07. The SHFE inventory increased by 769 tons to 43,633 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 119,225 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.17 million tons to 7.95 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from 140 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main ZN2508 contract of Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low level, closing at 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 2.59%. LME zinc broke through the 2,700 dollars/ton mark, closing at 2,778.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 4.89% [6] - **Spot Market**: The new long - term contracts were implemented, and traders increased their quotes. But due to the rising price and the off - season, downstream purchasing weakened, and the premium continued to decline [7] - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 119,225 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 769 tons to 43,633 tons. As of June 26th, the domestic social inventory increased, with a significant increase in Tianjin due to reduced consumption, while Shanghai and Guangdong had a slight decrease due to less incoming goods [8] - **Macro - economy**: The US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly decline was 0.5%, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was only 0.5%, the weakest since the COVID - 19 outbreak. The core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5%. The initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, and the previous week's continuing jobless claims reached 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021. The May durable goods orders increased by 16.4% month - on - month, far exceeding expectations [8][9] 3. Industry News - In July, the average processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased by 200 yuan/metal ton and 6.46 dollars/dry ton respectively [12] - Workers at Nexa's Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru went on strike on June 25th after wage negotiation failure, and the resumption time depends on further negotiations [12] - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain, with normal production but restricted transportation, and are gradually recovering [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot and LME premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc production, smelter profits, net imports of refined zinc, and downstream enterprise operating rates [13][21][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has led to generally strong commodity prices. A strike at a 344,000 - ton zinc smelter in Peru has affected production and boosted zinc prices. However, the spot market has become increasingly冷清, with a significant decline in spot premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped significantly, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. Although the upward space is limited, the zinc price still maintains a strong trend. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and if social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$17.39/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 65 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 22,220 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 35 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 75 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,090 yuan/ton and closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,030 - 22,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar and the strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter have pushed up zinc prices. However, the spot market is cold, with a significant decline in premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. TC remains stable, and overseas zinc ore shipments are increasing. Although the upward space is limited, the strong trend remains. There is still smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the increase in social inventory will bring downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]