Core Insights - Three stocks with strong growth characteristics and buy ranks are highlighted for investors to consider on December 17 [1][2][3] Company Summaries - **The Allstate Corporation (ALL)**: - Zacks Rank: 1 - Current year earnings estimate increased by 22.7% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio: 0.40 (industry average: 1.75) - Growth Score: B [1] - **Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (GLDD)**: - Zacks Rank: 1 - Current year earnings estimate increased by 7.8% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio: 1.06 (industry average: 3.11) - Growth Score: A [2] - **Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)**: - Zacks Rank: 1 - Current year earnings estimate increased by 5.5% over the last 60 days - PEG ratio: 1.62 (industry average: 2.83) - Growth Score: B [3]

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W repurchased 7.2 million shares at an average price of HKD 41.90 per share, totaling approximately HKD 302 million, with a cumulative repurchase of 119 million shares this year, accounting for 0.45% of total share capital [1] - Since September 2023, the company has repurchased over 150 million shares, costing around HKD 2 billion, with several single-day repurchase amounts reaching the daily limit [1] - The stock buyback occurs amid a 60% decline from historical highs in the tech sector, reflecting management's confidence in long-term value [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group-W, established in 2010, is a leading global smartphone and IoT platform company, reporting total revenue of CNY 126.8 billion and an adjusted net profit of CNY 8.37 billion in its mid-year report [2] - The company's business composition includes 58% from smartphones, 29% from IoT and consumer products, and 13% from internet services, maintaining a global smartphone market share of 12.9% [2] - The founder, Lei Jun, holds approximately 10% of shares, making him the largest individual shareholder, with major institutional investors including Blackstone and JPMorgan [2]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨港股公司点评丨小米集团-W（01810.HK） [Table_Title] 汽车业务实现扭亏，Q3 业绩再创新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年前三季度，小米集团实现营收 3403.70 亿元，同比增长 32.5%；经调整净利润 328.17 亿元，同比增长 73.5%。毛利率 22.75%，同比提升 1.69pct；净利率 9.64%，同比提升 2.28pct。 2025Q3 单季度实现营收 1131.21 亿元，同比增长 22.28%；经调整净利润再创新高，达到 113.11 亿元，同比增长 80.92%。毛利率 22.75%，同比提升 1.69pct；净利率 9.64%，同比提升 2.28pct。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 高伊楠 陈亮 张永乾 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490517070017 SAC：S0490524030002 SFC：BUW100 SFC：BUW101 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 % ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong and resilient growth in its Q3 2025 financial results, with total revenue reaching 113.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year, indicating robust performance across its business segments [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 113.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.4% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.9% year-on-year increase and a 4.4% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - Gross margin improved to 22.9%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Mobile Business - Q3 2025 mobile business revenue was 46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) slightly declined, with a gross margin of 11.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Global smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, maintaining a market share of 13.6% [2]. Group 3: Automotive Business - The automotive segment achieved revenue of 29 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 199% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [3]. - The segment recorded a gross margin of 25.5%, with a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company achieved its first quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan in this segment, indicating a positive trend for future profitability [3]. Group 4: IoT and Internet Business - Q3 2025 IoT business revenue was 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.8% [4]. - The gross margin for IoT was 23.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Internet business revenue reached a record high of 9.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1% [4]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The company is focused on high-end product strategies and international expansion in its mobile business, while the IoT segment is expected to benefit from enhanced self-research capabilities and overseas market opportunities [5]. - The automotive business aims to enter the top five global automakers by 2025-2027, supported by a robust product matrix and ecosystem synergies [5].

Xiaomi (1810 HK) Equity Research Summary Industry Overview - **Industry**: Electronic Equipment & Instruments - **Company**: Xiaomi Corporation Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Non-IFRS Net Profit**: RMB 11.3 billion, up 81% year-on-year, exceeding consensus by 13% due to higher than expected EV average selling price (ASP) which increased by 9% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter [3][29] - **EV Business**: Achieved its first quarterly operating profit of RMB 0.7 billion in 3Q25, with vehicle deliveries increasing by 34% quarter-on-quarter [3][11] - **Total Revenue**: RMB 113.1 billion in 3Q25, a 22.3% increase year-on-year [29] Segment Performance Smartphone Segment - **Revenue**: RMB 45.97 billion, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year [29] - **ASP Decline**: From RMB 1,073 in 2Q25 to RMB 1,063 in 3Q25, with gross margin dropping from 11.5% to 11.1% [3][29] - **Profitability Pressure**: Expected due to rising memory costs; prioritizing ASP improvement over shipment growth [4][11] IoT and Lifestyle Products - **Revenue Growth**: Slowed to 5.7% year-on-year, impacted by reduced shipments of smart large home appliances due to subsidy cuts and increased competition [3][4] - **Gross Margin Recovery**: Increased by 1.4 percentage points sequentially [3] EV Segment - **Revenue**: RMB 29.01 billion, a significant increase of 199.2% year-on-year [29] - **Delivery Goal**: On track to meet 2025 vehicle delivery target of 350,000 units, with monthly deliveries expected to rise from approximately 30,000 in July to over 40,000 by October 2025 [4][11] Strategic Insights - **Premiumisation Strategy**: Aimed at alleviating cost pressures in the smartphone segment [4][11] - **Product Mix Optimization**: To mitigate the impact of subsidy reductions in the IoT segment [4] Valuation and Estimates - **Target Price**: Decreased to HKD 62.80 from HKD 65.40, implying a 54% upside from the current share price of HKD 40.78 [5][11] - **Net Profit Estimates**: Lowered by 3%, 6%, and 3% for 2025-2027, respectively, due to reduced revenue estimates [5][30] - **Valuation Method**: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach; applying a 25x target PE for legacy businesses and DCF for the EV business [5][32] Risks and Challenges - **Component Shortages**: Potential revenue caps due to shortages in key semiconductor components [40] - **Competition**: Increased competition in IoT and internet services from established players like Huawei and Lenovo [40] - **FX Volatility**: Risks associated with foreign exchange fluctuations as Xiaomi expands in overseas markets [40] Conclusion - Xiaomi is positioned for growth in its EV segment while facing challenges in its smartphone and IoT businesses. The company’s strategic focus on premiumisation and product mix optimization is crucial for navigating current market pressures. The revised target price reflects a cautious outlook amid anticipated cost pressures and competitive dynamics.

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 113.1 billion yuan (up 22.3% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit at 11.3 billion yuan (up 80.9% year-on-year) [1] Automotive Business - The automotive segment achieved profitability in Q3, with vehicle deliveries reaching 108,796 units (up 173.4% year-on-year) [1] - Revenue from automotive and AI-related innovative businesses in Q3 was 29 billion yuan (up 199.2% year-on-year), with automotive revenue at 28.3 billion yuan (up 197.9% year-on-year) [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 260,000 yuan (up 9.0% year-on-year), driven by higher ASP from models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [1] - The gross margin for automotive-related businesses reached 25.5% in Q3, and the segment achieved a quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan for the first time [1] Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment faced challenges due to rising storage costs, with Q3 shipments exceeding 43 million units (up 0.5% year-on-year) [2] - Revenue from the smartphone business was 46 billion yuan (down 3.1% year-on-year), primarily due to a decline in ASP, which was 1,062.8 yuan (down 3.6% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for the smartphone business was 11.1%, a decrease of approximately 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates cost pressures in 2026 for smartphones, tablets, and laptops due to ongoing increases in the global memory market [2] IoT and Consumer Products - Revenue growth for IoT and consumer products slowed, with Q3 revenue at 27.6 billion yuan (up 5.6% year-on-year) [3] - Revenue from certain consumer products increased by 20.4%, while wearable products saw a 22.5% increase; however, revenue from smart home appliances decreased by 15.7% due to reduced shipments from subsidy cuts and increased competition [3] - The company’s smart appliance factory has commenced operations, with a planned peak annual capacity of 7 million units [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 44.1 billion yuan, 52.4 billion yuan, and 65.3 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 43.1 billion yuan, 57.4 billion yuan, and 68.7 billion yuan [3] - Despite pressures on consumer electronics profitability from rising memory costs, the automotive segment's profitability is expected to offset some of these challenges, and the company maintains a "recommended" rating following recent valuation adjustments [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a 3Q25 adjusted net profit of 11.31 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 7.1%, driven by better-than-expected gross margins in IoT, internet services, and automotive sectors [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - 3Q25 revenue reached 113.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, slightly above the forecast by 0.7% [1] - The adjusted net profit for 3Q25 was 11.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 80.9% [1] - IoT revenue grew by 5.6% to 27.6 billion yuan, with notable growth in wearable and lifestyle products [2] - Internet business revenue increased by 11% to 9.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 76.9% [2] Smartphone and Market Performance - Global smartphone shipments in 3Q25 totaled 43.25 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - The company's global smartphone market share rose to 13.6%, with increases in various regions including Latin America and Southeast Asia [1] - The average selling price (ASP) for smartphones decreased by 3.6% to 1,063 yuan, primarily due to lower ASPs overseas, although ASP in mainland China increased due to a shift towards high-end models [1] Automotive Sector - The company delivered 109,000 vehicles in 3Q25, achieving an ASP of 260,000 yuan, driven by increased deliveries of the SU7 Ultra and YU7 models [2] - The automotive and innovation business segment achieved a gross margin of 25.5% and recorded a quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan for the first time [2] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations for continued growth in vehicle deliveries and profit acceleration [2] Adjustments and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 7.5% and 9.8% to 40.49 billion yuan and 57.77 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24x for 2025 and 17x for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 10.9% to 53 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by innovative business segments like smart cars and AI [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 113.1 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.3% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.4% [4]. - Non-IFRS net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-over-quarter, with a corresponding net profit margin of 10% [4]. Group 2: Smartphone Business - Revenue from smartphone sales in Q3 2025 was 46 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-over-year but up 1% quarter-over-quarter [5]. - The company shipped 43.3 million smartphones, achieving a slight year-over-year increase of 0.5%, maintaining a top-three global market share for 21 consecutive quarters [5]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones decreased to 1,062.8 yuan, down 3.6% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to declining ASP in overseas markets [5]. - Smartphone gross margin was 11.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, impacted by rising core component prices and intensified competition in mainland China [5]. Group 3: IoT Business - IoT revenue for Q3 2025 was 27.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.6% but a significant quarter-over-quarter decline of 28.8% [6]. - The gross margin for IoT improved to 23.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher sales of high-margin products [6]. - The company faces challenges in the IoT segment due to seasonal fluctuations and increased competition, with future strategies focusing on international expansion and product positioning [6]. Group 4: Internet Advertising - Internet revenue reached 9.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 10.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.1%, marking a historical high [7]. - The number of global monthly active users reached 742 million, up 8.2% year-over-year [7]. - Advertising revenue grew by 17.4% year-over-year to 7.2 billion yuan, with overseas internet revenue also increasing by 19.1% to 3.3 billion yuan, both achieving historical highs [8]. Group 5: Automotive Business - Revenue from automotive and innovative businesses was 29 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 199.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 36.4% [9]. - The company delivered 109,000 vehicles, with an ASP of 260,000 yuan, benefiting from high ASP models like Xiaomi YU7 and SU7 Ultra [9]. - The automotive segment achieved a gross margin of 25.5% and recorded a positive operating profit of 700 million yuan for the first time in a single quarter [9].

Core Insights - Xiaomi Auto has officially produced its 500,000th vehicle, marking a significant milestone in the company's automotive journey, achieved in just over 1 year and 7 months since the first vehicle was produced [1][4] - The achievement signifies the validation of Xiaomi Auto's capabilities across research, manufacturing, sales, delivery, and service, indicating a new phase of scalability for the company [4] Company Development - Xiaomi announced its entry into the automotive industry in March 2021, with CEO Lei Jun committing his reputation to the project, describing it as his last major entrepreneurial venture [4] - The company has launched two models: the Xiaomi SU7, set to debut on March 28, 2024, priced between 215,900 to 299,900 RMB, and the Xiaomi YU7, which was launched on June 26, 2023, priced between 253,500 to 329,900 RMB [6] Sales Performance - As of October 2023, Xiaomi Auto has sold a total of 315,400 vehicles, with the SU7 being the best-selling large vehicle of the year at 234,500 units, and the YU7 at 80,900 units [11] - The company aims to deliver 350,000 new vehicles by the end of 2023, a target that is expected to be met ahead of schedule [11] Future Strategy - Lei Jun emphasized that the production of the 500,000th vehicle is just a new starting point for Xiaomi Auto, with a focus on safety, delivery, technological innovation, and the integration of AI and smart manufacturing [12]

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, with adjusted net profit reaching 11.3 billion yuan, up 81%, marking a historical high [1][4] - The company successfully transitioned between old and new growth engines, with innovative businesses like smart electric vehicles and AI achieving profitability for the first time in a single quarter, while the traditional smartphone business faced pressure due to rising memory costs [1][4] Financial Performance - The automotive business delivered 108,796 vehicles in Q3, with a total of 265,967 vehicles delivered in the first three quarters, and a monthly delivery of over 40,000 units in October, achieving profitability with a net profit of 6,434 yuan per vehicle sold [4][6] - The smartphone business faced challenges, with global shipments of 43.3 million units and revenue of 45.969 billion yuan, leading to a decline in gross margin to 11.1% due to rising costs of core components [6][5] Business Segmentation - Internet services generated revenue of 9.4 billion yuan in Q3, a 10.8% increase, primarily driven by strong advertising performance [7] - IoT business revenue reached 27.6 billion yuan, maintaining year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, with a gross margin of 23.9% [9][8] R&D and Long-term Strategy - R&D expenditure in Q3 amounted to 9.1 billion yuan, a 52.1% increase, with total R&D investment for the first three quarters nearing last year's total, expected to exceed 30 billion yuan for the year [11][12] - The company is focusing on core technologies and frontier fields, with capital expenditure for the first three quarters at 13 billion yuan, reflecting long-term strategic investments [12][10] Market Outlook and Challenges - Despite achieving profitability in the automotive sector, the company anticipates challenges in 2026 due to reduced purchase tax subsidies and intensified competition [12] - The smartphone business continues to face long-term pressure from rising memory costs, while the IoT sector is experiencing a transitional phase in the domestic appliance market [12][6]