Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Date: December 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Data - SRO9: Closing price 5,262, increase of 0.17%, volume 6,374, increase of 1,257, open interest 28,876, increase of 1,892 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,337, increase of 34, increase rate of 0.64%, volume 173,785, increase of 20,741, open interest 289,716, decrease of 27,587 [3] - SROE: Closing price 5,244, increase of 11, increase rate of 0.21%, volume 118,780, increase of 25,273, open interest 309,725, increase of 14,181 [3] Spot Price Data - Sugar spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,505 (no change), Kunming 5,345 (decrease of 25), Wuhan 5,810 (no change), Nanning 5,430 (no change), Yingkou 0 (no data), Rizhao 5,700 (no change), Xi'an 5,960 (decrease of 20) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 168, Kunming (data missing), Wuhan 473, Nanning 93, Rizhao 363, Xi'an 623 [3] Inter - month Spread Data - SR05 - SR01: Spread - 23, change - 33; SR09 - SR05: Spread 18, change - 2; SR09 - SR01: Spread - 75, change - 25 [3] Import Profit Data - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium (0.19), freight 37.75, in - quota price 4,049, out - of - quota price 5,144, spread with Liuzhou 361, spread with Rizhao 556.00, spread with the market 193 [3] - Thai imports: ICE主力 14.82, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4,082, out - of - quota price 5,192, spread with Liuzhou 313, spread with Rizhao 508.00, spread with the market 145 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - As of December 8, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 11 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, 112,500 tons less than the same period last year. 16 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 6 more than the same period last year, with a planned daily crushing capacity of 59,900 tons, 23,500 tons more than the same period last year [5] - In November 2025, the actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar was 114,500 tons, and the forecasted arrival was 363,500 tons [6] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest stage, the sugar - making ratio has decreased, and the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil is 39.179 million tons, 800,000 tons more than the same period last year. International sugar prices show signs of bottom - building and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [8] - Domestically, sugar mills are starting to crush, and the supply and sales pressure will gradually increase. However, due to tightened imports of syrups and premixes and high previous pricing costs, domestic sugar production costs are relatively high, supporting the futures price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, international sugar prices are showing signs of bottom - building, and are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Domestically, although there are sales pressure, considering the high production cost and low futures price, it is recommended to build long positions at low prices [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options at low prices [10] Group 4: Related Diagrams - Diagrams include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, sugar basis for different months, and inter - month spreads for different contracts [11][14][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The sugar market is expected to remain weak under multiple supply pressures, and the main contract may continue to test the support around 5,200 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core contradiction lies in the imbalance between the supply increase caused by the concentrated listing of new domestic and foreign sugar and the weak downstream demand. The accelerated domestic crushing progress and the optimistic production expectations of major international producers have jointly pressured the market, leading to a simultaneous weakening of futures and spot prices, with funds leaving the market to wait and see, and the market struggling to find effective support in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Review**: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 14.8, down 2.70% from last Friday; the main Zhengzhou sugar contract closed at 5,303 yuan/ton, down 1.80%. Spot prices in major domestic producing areas generally declined, with Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming down 1.65%, 1.65%, and 1.84% respectively. The basis of Liuzhou sugar and the main contract increased by 17.50% to 47 yuan/ton. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183. Market sentiment showed that the proportion of those bullish, bearish, and neutral on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 10%, 55%, and 35% respectively [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugarcane Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Beet Sugar Production and Sales in Major Producing Areas**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory**: The data has not been updated, and the market is concerned about the inventory accumulation progress after the listing of new sugar [3]. - **China's Sugar Import and Export**: The import profit margin has expanded. The processing profits of Thai and Brazilian sugar within the quota increased by 1.66% and 2.14% week - on - week respectively, and the profits outside the quota increased even more (7.47% and 8.68%) [3]. - **China's Major Sugar Importing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit**: The import processing cost decreased by 1% - 2% week - on - week. For Brazil, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.58% to 3,987 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.63% to 5,085 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 2.14% to 1,812 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 8.68% to 714 yuan/ton. For Thailand, the quota - within processing cost decreased by 1.37% to 4,027 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside decreased by 1.40% to 5,137 yuan/ton; the quota - within import profit increased by 1.66% to 1,772 yuan/ton, and the quota - outside increased by 7.47% to 662 yuan/ton [29]. 3.3. International Market Fundamentals - **Brazil's Available Sugar Quantity**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugarcane Crushing Volume**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Ethanol Production**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **Brazil's Sugar Import and Export**: Not elaborated in the provided content. - **International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs**: Not elaborated in the provided content.

Group 1 - The article highlights the traditional method of producing brown sugar in Laowu Village, Longhui County, Shaoyang City, Hunan Province, showcasing local craftsmanship and agricultural practices [2][5][6] - Workers are actively involved in the harvesting of sugarcane, indicating a strong agricultural base in the region that supports the sugar production industry [3] - The process of cooling and packaging the brown sugar is emphasized, reflecting the steps taken to ensure product readiness for market distribution [5][6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, influenced by currency fluctuations and production levels in major producing countries [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.08 (-0.54%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +0.40 (+0.09%) [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows due to increased sugar production in India, with a reported 43% year-on-year increase in production to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - Sugar prices rallied to 6-week highs last Friday amid concerns about tighter global supplies [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [3] - India's sugar mills are currently crushing cane at a higher rate, with 428 mills operational as of November 30, compared to 376 a year ago [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [6] Group 3: Policy and Export Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering raising the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills may divert more cane to ethanol production [4] - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season, which is lower than previous estimates [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a decline in the Brazilian real, which has fallen to a 7-week low against the dollar, promoting export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - India's sugar production has surged, with a reported increase of +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the October-November period, contributing to lower sugar prices [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook remains bearish, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, and a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] Price Movements - Sugar prices reached 6-week highs last Friday due to concerns over tighter global supplies, but recent adjustments in production estimates have contributed to price volatility [4] - India's food ministry's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, provides some support for sugar prices [5] Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [6] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26, indicating a significant increase in supply [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, it is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not show significant improvement. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction remains bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, increasing the difficulty of long - short games and reducing the probability of a trending market. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the international raw sugar price rebounded. As of November 28, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.21 cents per pound, up 0.79 cents per pound from the previous month, a 5.48% increase. The raw sugar 3 - 5 month spread was 0.51 cents per pound, up 0.12 cents per pound from the previous month; the London white sugar 3 - 5 month spread was $5.2 per ton, up $2.8 per ton from the previous month; the raw - white spread of the March contract was $100 per ton, up $8 per ton from the previous month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined slightly in November. As of November 28, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5400 yuan per ton, down 83 yuan per ton from the previous month, a 1.51% decrease. The spot price in Guangxi was 5450 yuan per ton, down 230 yuan per ton from the previous month; the basis was 50 yuan per ton, down 147 yuan per ton from the previous month; the 1 - 5 spread was 73 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous month; the out - of - quota spot import profit was 420 yuan per ton, down 439 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry News**: As of December 4, 2025/26, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 21 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 346,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 175,500 tons. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. Sugar production was 983,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: As mentioned above, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios. These charts cover various time periods and contracts from 2021 to 2025, providing a comprehensive view of the spread trends in the sugar market [17][20][25]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [41]. - **Sugar Imports**: Charts display the monthly and annual cumulative imports of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 2025 [44]. - **National Sales**: Charts present the monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [49]. - **National Industrial Inventory**: Charts show the monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses [52]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, the cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 [57]. - **Indian Production**: Charts present the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 [62]. - **Thai Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 [65]. - **Brazilian Shipment Volume**: Charts display the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil from 2022 to 2025 and the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [68].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - **Thai Sugar Situation**: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - **Indian Sugar Situation**: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]

Core Viewpoint - Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911.SZ) plans to increase capital for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangxi Nantung Market Development Co., Ltd., to meet operational needs and optimize its asset-liability structure [1] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The company will inject 20 million RMB in cash into the market company [1] - Following the capital increase, the registered capital of the market company will change from 10 million RMB to 30 million RMB [1] - The ownership structure remains unchanged, with the market company still being a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar hit a new low this week, testing the support around 5,300 yuan/ton. Spot prices are dropping rapidly, and the overall supply pressure is high. With the increase in new sugar on the market, spot pressure rises. The market supply is abundant, and sugar prices are unlikely to rise. Internationally, ICE sugar futures are digesting supply pressure, with prices fluctuating around 15 cents/pound and finding support around 14 cents/pound. Although current supply pressure is hard to resolve, there are some hidden long - term positives, and international sugar prices may maintain low - level oscillations. The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [57][58] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis 1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed weak performance, with a weekly decline of 1.8%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.97% [11] 1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - No summary information provided 1.3 Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No summary information provided 1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In October, imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar futures March contract price of 14.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,019 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,090 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand is 4,078 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 5,166 yuan/ton [23] 1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in October was about 321,800 tons, an increase of 45,900 tons compared to the same period last year [29] 1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 183, a decrease of 75 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the valid forecasts were 183 [34] 1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of November, the cumulative crushing volume was 576 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.26%, and the sugar production was 39.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.09% [38] 1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.54%, compared to 48.45% in the same period last year [43] 1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In October, Brazil's sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [47] 1.10 International Main - producing Region Weather Conditions - Brazil's main producing areas have abundant rainfall, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth. India has little precipitation, which is beneficial to sugarcane crushing [53] 2. Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar hit a new low, spot prices are falling, and supply pressure is high. With new sugar on the market, pressure increases, and sugar prices are unlikely to rise. Internationally, ICE sugar futures are digesting supply pressure, and although current pressure is high, there are long - term positives, and prices may maintain low - level oscillations. The operation suggestion is short - term trading [57][58]

Core Viewpoint - The sugar prices in Guangxi are experiencing a downward trend due to increasing new sugar supply, leading to a shift from profit to loss for sugar factories [1][2][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In mid-November, the sugar price in Guangxi peaked at 5725 yuan/ton due to low inventory levels, but as new sugar supply increased, prices fell below 5000 yuan/ton by December 2, averaging 5475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.86% month-on-month and 10.32% year-on-year [2]. - The overall sugar production in Guangxi for the 2024/25 season is projected at 6.465 million tons, accounting for approximately 57.92% of the national total, with a slight increase expected in the following season despite adverse weather conditions [4]. - The number of sugar factories operating in Guangxi has decreased by 22 year-on-year, impacting the supply dynamics [4]. Cost and Profitability - The theoretical sugar production cost remains high, with an average cost of 5624 yuan/ton against a selling price of 5465 yuan/ton, resulting in an average theoretical loss of 158.6 yuan/ton for sugar factories [6]. - The expected sugarcane purchase price is 510 yuan/ton, with a sugar production rate of 12.85%, indicating a challenging profitability environment for sugar producers [6]. Seasonal Trends - Historically, December has shown a high probability of price declines, and despite an increase in both supply and demand, the supply growth is anticipated to outpace demand growth, leading to a potential price drop [8]. - The expected price range for white sugar in Guangxi for December is between 5380-5550 yuan/ton, influenced by increased supply from local sugar factories and other regions [8].