政策面上，12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关，实施以"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"为基本特征的自由化便利化政策制度。 12月22日早盘，海南省国资、海南自贸港、三沙、海航系等概念板块集体走强，海南机场（600515）、中国中免（601888）、神农种业（300189）、海峡 股份（002320）等近20只个股涨停。 截至午间收盘，海南省国资、海南自贸港两大概念板块分别收涨10.01%、9.36%；海运、贸易等行业也涨幅居前，均收涨2.11%。下午开盘后相关板块继 续维持强势表现。 国泰海通证券交运首席分析师岳鑫也认为，"零关税、低税率、简税制"将加速区域经济与相关产业发展，有望拉动客货流动。 据三亚市商务局数据，封关首日全市免税销售额达1.18亿元；据海口海关统计，首日"一线"进口"零关税"享惠货物3.6亿元，主要为原油、航空器材 等，"二线"监管内销加工增值免关税货物1468.9万元，免征关税80.8万元，涉及医疗器械、药品、食品等品类。 "制度层面的降本增效将持续改善经营主体成本结构，提升货物贸易自由化与便利化水平，并增强市场活跃度。"开源证券分析师黄泽鹏表示，从消费端 看，政策红利将 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3915.20 points, up 0.64%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.36% to 13318.80 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 1.80%, and the STAR Market 50 Index gained 1.95% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3318 stocks rose, accounting for 64.33%, while 1652 stocks fell, and 188 stocks remained flat. There were 93 stocks that hit the daily limit up, and 8 stocks hit the limit down [1] Top Performing Stocks - The leading sectors for stocks hitting the daily limit up included basic chemicals, transportation, and construction decoration, with 9, 9, and 8 stocks respectively [1] - Notable stocks with the highest limit up included *ST Wanfang and ST Xifa, among 19 ST stocks. *ST Ningke achieved 8 consecutive limit up days, the highest among all [1] - HNA Holding was the most favored stock by funds, with a limit up order volume of 33,086,770 shares, followed by Shanzi Gaoke and Jiamei Packaging with 27,611,280 shares and 12,314,290 shares respectively [1] Limit Up Stocks Data - The top limit up stocks by order volume included: - Shengtong Energy: Closing price 28.75, turnover rate 0.26%, limit up order volume 3,710,940 shares, order amount 1,066.89 million [2] - Shanzi Gaoke: Closing price 3.65, turnover rate 6.85%, limit up order volume 27,611,280 shares, order amount 1,007.81 million [2] - China Duty Free: Closing price 91.09, turnover rate 4.38%, limit up order volume 998,040 shares, order amount 909.11 million [2] - Jiamei Packaging: Closing price 6.68, turnover rate 0.11%, limit up order volume 12,314,290 shares, order amount 822.59 million [2] Industry Insights - The basic chemicals sector had a strong showing with multiple stocks hitting the limit up, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The transportation sector also performed well, with significant order volumes in stocks like HNA Holding and Shanzi Gaoke, suggesting positive market sentiment towards this industry [1][2]

-19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：商贸零售|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2458.79 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2458.79 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1877.67 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 近期研究报告 《新消费行业框架：星星之火，灿若 星辰》 - 2025.11.28 11 月社零数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 国家统计局发布最新社零数据，11 月份，社会消费品零售总额 43898 亿元，同比增长 1.3%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 39444 亿元，增长 2.5%。1—11 月份，社会消费品零售总额 456067 亿元， 增长 4.0%。其中，除汽车 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), treasury bonds (TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn; bearish on crude oil, methanol, apples, and container shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views - A - shares are expected to form a long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern with the resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive". The expected December interest rate cut by the Fed and capital market reforms will further strengthen this foundation [2][12] - The downward trend of CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, and weak employment data supports the Fed to continue cutting rates, boosting precious metal prices. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [3][20] - The short - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to continue consolidation, while a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained, considering supply and demand factors and the approaching holidays [4][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day 3.1.1. International News - The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles" requirements, seen as a concession to the traditional European automotive industry and a step back in climate policy [7] 3.1.2. Domestic News - State - owned enterprises will take on national science and technology tasks, aiming to make breakthroughs in "neck - choking" areas and supply "root technologies" and key common technologies [8] 3.1.3. Industry News - Three government departments jointly issued the "Internet Platform Price Behavior Rules" to promote the innovation and healthy development of the platform economy [9] 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.88%, ICE Brent crude oil increased 1.41%, London silver climbed 2.26%, and other varieties showed different degrees of price changes from December 18th to 19th [11] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - **Stock Indices**: The long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's expected December interest rate cut and positive policy signals will boost market risk appetite [2][12] - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of short - term treasury bond futures is supported by the expectation of loose policies, despite factors such as the rise in US and Japanese bond yields [13][14] 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse, with a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories [15] - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as the decline in CTO/MTO开工率 and the change in coastal inventory [16] - **Rubber**: Short - term rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to supply and demand factors [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to the cost trend and the digestion rhythm of supply and demand [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The focus of market trading is shifting to the May contract [19] 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3][20] - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply - demand gap due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to factors such as the US dollar and downstream demand [21] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Market sentiment and related factors need to be monitored [22] - **Aluminum**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate, and a long - term optimistic view is maintained, considering supply, demand, and holiday factors [4][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction, the overall trend is still upward, and attention should be paid to factors such as production resumption and demand verification [24][25] 3.3.4. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a significant decline, the double - coking market is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to factors such as iron - water production and downstream inventory [26] - **Steel**: The short - term steel price has the potential to rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak, affected by supply, demand, and macro - expectations [27] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term iron ore prices are expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, considering factors such as shipping, inventory, and steel - mill demand [28] 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meals**: Domestic soybean meal is expected to continue range - bound due to factors such as the slow US soybean exports and sufficient future supply [29] - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as palm oil export policies and inventory pressure [30][31] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar shows signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply and cost factors on market sentiment [32] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [33] 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure as the Spring Festival approaches and the shipping schedule changes [34]

编者荐语： 转载自申万宏源证券上海分公司，仅供参考。近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资 金净流出额前三的行业为电子、电力设备和计算机。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1.主力资金： 近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资金净流出额前三的行业为电子、 电力设备和计算机。 2.融资融券数据 ：当前市场融资融券余额为24993.66亿元，较上期上升0.62%，其中融资余额24825.56亿元，融券余额168.09亿元。本期两融日均交易额为 1888.46亿元，较上期上升9.41%，其中融资日均净买入1881.21亿元，较两周前上升9.48%，融券日均净卖出7.24亿元，较上期下降5.15%。近两周融资净买 入前三的行业分别为电子、国防军工和通信；融券净卖出前三的行业分别为食品饮料、医药生物和基础化工。 3.涨跌情况： 近两 ...

Core Insights - As of December 19, the total market financing balance reached 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.577 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 1: Financing Activities - A total of 22 stocks had a net financing inflow exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - China Ping An (601318) topped the list with a net financing inflow of 587 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net financing inflows include: - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) with 576 million yuan - C Yujing with 521 million yuan - Yonghui Supermarket (601933) with 478 million yuan - Aerospace Development (000547) with 461 million yuan - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) with 375 million yuan [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The financing balance for China Ping An (601318) was 27.421 billion yuan, accounting for 3.74% of its market capitalization [2] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) had a financing balance of 5.977 billion yuan, representing 4.26% of its market capitalization [2] - C Yujing's financing balance was 521 million yuan, which is 15.03% of its market capitalization [2] - Yonghui Supermarket (601933) had a financing balance of 2.304 billion yuan, making up 4.41% of its market capitalization [2] - Aerospace Development (000547) had a financing balance of 2.062 billion yuan, representing 5.82% of its market capitalization [2] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) had a financing balance of 4.441 billion yuan, accounting for 5.73% of its market capitalization [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that factors driving the appreciation of the RMB are increasing, leading to a growing market focus on asset allocation in a continuously appreciating RMB environment [1] Group 1: Industry Configuration - In the context of ongoing RMB appreciation, three driving factors for industry configuration are identified: short-term muscle memory, profit margin changes, and policy changes [2] - Approximately 19% of industries are expected to see profit margin improvements due to RMB appreciation, which will attract investor attention [1] Group 2: Beneficial Industries - Beneficial industries from RMB appreciation can be categorized into four main groups: 1. Upstream resources and raw materials, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, basic chemicals, building materials, and semiconductor materials [2] 2. Domestic consumer goods, primarily in agriculture, light manufacturing, and consumer electronics [2] 3. Service-related sectors, such as utilities, transportation, retail (import-based cross-border e-commerce), and social services [2] 4. Manufacturing equipment, mainly in machinery and semiconductor equipment [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the Chinese stock market, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index and various industry sectors, including consumer, technology, and financial sectors [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: - The Shanghai Composite Index is facing resistance in the range of 3,920 to 3,950 points, with short-term rebounds limited and a mid-term direction still unclear [1][2]. - The market has been in a correction phase for 6-8 weeks, with expectations of continued consolidation in December and January, potentially leading to new opportunities in February [1][5]. 2. **Sector Performance**: - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly due to favorable news from Hainan, which has positively impacted retail and consumer services [1][3]. - Non-bank financials have also seen a rise of approximately 3% [3]. - Technology sectors, including battery cells, electronic machinery, communication, and computing, continue to exhibit weakness [1][3]. 3. **Technical Analysis**: - The Hang Seng Technology Index has retraced 55%-60% of its gains since April 2025 and is showing signs of a potential rebound near the 5,360-point mark [6]. - The STAR 50 Index has been in a correction for 11 weeks, with a potential buying opportunity if it approaches 1,269 points [6]. 4. **Brokerage Sector Outlook**: - The brokerage sector is in a preparatory phase, with expectations of a more stable upward trend following sufficient consolidation [7]. - A rapid increase of 5% in the brokerage sector, along with strong performance in the optical module sector, could signal the start of a spring rally, although the potential for significant gains may be limited [8]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - The brokerage sector remains a key focus due to its low position and potential to lead market direction [10]. - The home appliance sector is also highlighted as having a high short-term win rate [10]. - Long-term attention should be given to consumer, pharmaceutical, and AI application sectors, with specific interest in Hainan-related consumer concepts and innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong [10]. 6. **Market Style and Sector Allocation**: - The market is expected to trend towards balance, with opportunities in large-cap growth stocks, consumer, and financial sectors [11]. - A diversified approach is recommended, focusing on various sub-sectors such as tourism, general retail, aerospace, and communication equipment [11]. 7. **Short-term Trading Strategies**: - Short-term strategies should be flexible, with decisive action on stocks that are in a clear opportunity zone, while maintaining caution on those with unclear directions [12][13]. - Positions that have shown elasticity can be held for further expansion, while high-position stocks that have not adjusted should be reallocated in anticipation of year-end or spring rallies [13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market is still in a state of indecision, with the potential for both upward and downward movements depending on future developments [2][4]. - The importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio and being prepared for various market conditions is emphasized throughout the discussion [11].

智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条 件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化 或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓 解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期 待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 华西证券主要观点如下： 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨;成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨8.7%， 铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人民币对美 元则延续升值态势。 一、复盘历史，除2021和2022年外， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that most primary industry sectors have shown upward movement, but the growth is generally moderate, with retail, non-bank financials, beauty care, and social services leading the gains due to the increasing importance of domestic demand strategies and related policy expectations [1] - The retail, beauty care, and social service sectors have performed well as a result of the sustained emphasis on domestic demand, while the non-bank financial sector has been boosted by the recovery in brokerage and insurance sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, electrical equipment, and machinery have experienced the largest declines, attributed to profit-taking in the electric equipment sector and a lack of catalysts in the machinery sector [1] Group 2 - In terms of investment direction, defensive low-yield dividend sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals are recommended for short-term positioning, while non-bank financials should be considered for adjustments to capture market beta opportunities [2] - There is potential for a recovery in cyclical sectors related to domestic demand, such as consumer goods, driven by policy expectations [2] - Growth-oriented sectors, particularly those benefiting from AI and semiconductors, should focus on leading companies with strong earnings certainty, as well as sectors like embodied intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals that may see progress next year [2]