Group 1 - The A-share market has shown differentiation this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5%, while the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Index fell by 1.2%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is currently at a medium level historically since 2010 [1][11][12] - In April, the market typically enters a consolidation phase due to factors such as earnings disclosures and adjustments in analysts' profit expectations. Recent data indicates an increase in market uncertainty, as reflected in the rising fear index in the US stock market and the implied volatility of Hong Kong stock options [2][18][19] Group 2 - Three investment directions are highlighted during the market consolidation: domestic consumption, defensive assets, and self-sufficient industrial chains. The focus on domestic consumption is driven by recent domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [3][23][24] - Defensive assets, such as high-dividend stocks and gold, are recommended as they provide stability during uncertain market conditions. High-dividend sectors like coal, banking, and oil have shown resilience and are expected to perform well in uncertain times [32][33][36] - The self-sufficient industrial chain is emphasized due to the dual drive of the "dual circulation" development pattern and global industrial chain restructuring. This presents opportunities for domestic substitution in previously imported products, although challenges remain in achieving substantial progress [38][39] Group 3 - The market is expected to be in a consolidation phase, with a focus on defensive and cyclical styles. Historical data shows that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in April is only 40%, with a median monthly increase of -0.4% [4][39][44] - The upcoming Politburo meeting in April is anticipated to be a significant observation window for future policies, as current macroeconomic policies are expected to work in tandem to stimulate the economy [40][45] - Specific sectors to watch include defensive industries such as coal mining, electricity, and white goods, while cyclical sectors like livestock farming and oil refining are also highlighted for potential investment [46][48]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, suggesting a gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the industry in 2025 [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The consumer sector has shown a steady recovery, with March retail sales increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by effective policies such as the trade-in program [4]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in boosting domestic consumption, especially in the context of ongoing trade tensions [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in various segments, including duty-free, emotional consumption, and tourism-related industries [4]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector experienced an overall increase, with textile and apparel, beauty care, food and beverage, retail, home appliances, and social services showing weekly gains of +1.57%, +0.43%, +0.24%, +0.24%, +0.18%, and +0.14% respectively [4]. - Notable stock performances included Anji Food (+50.00%), Haidar (+17.38%), and Guoguang Chain (+61.10%) [4]. - March retail sales reached a total of 5.9% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from essential consumer goods [4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released a work plan focusing on enhancing service consumption, proposing 48 specific measures to improve service quality and stimulate consumption [4][15]. - Companies like Juewei Foods and Encounter Small Noodles are expanding rapidly, with Encounter Small Noodles achieving a compound annual growth rate of 66.2% from 2022 to 2024 [15][16]. - The report notes that the trade-in policy has significantly boosted sales in home appliances, with over 35.7 million units sold, generating sales of approximately 124.7 billion yuan [4][17].

点击小程序查看报告原文 提振内需的必要性与政策实施的有效性正在提升 外部冲击之下，"扩内需"必要性进一步提升。 美国近期实施的关税政策力度远超预期，扰动全球贸易秩序，加剧全球经济放缓风险。中美贸易摩擦动态 演绎，截至4月16日，中国出口美国的个别商品累计各种名目的关税已达到245%[1]。在此背景下，我国政府迅速采取针对性措施，包括对等关税、出口管 制、反倾销调查、WTO诉讼等[2]，维护多边贸易。与此同时，在外部尤其贸易前景尚不明朗的背景下，更为积极地实施内需刺激政策必要性提升，以国 内增长确定性应对外部环境的不确定性。 当前时点"扩内需"的效果或优于以往。第一，从政策空间来看， 近期公布的物价数据显示，CPI同比2月起再次进入负增长区间，PPI同比持续低位运行， 通胀低位为货币宽松和财政刺激提供了更大操作空间。 第二，从政策目标来看， 扩大内需是去年底经济工作会议以及两会明确的首要任务[3]。特别地， 2024年地方政府债务置换计划落地后，地方偿债压力缓解，为新增投资及民生支出释放财政空间，地方政府配合中央逆周期调控的能力和意愿增强。 第 三，私人部门信心逐步企稳。 3月统计局公布的商品房销售面积、销售金 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the broader market index in the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 40,940 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, marking a 1.9 percentage point increase from the growth rate in January-February 2025 [11][12]. - The growth in retail sales is attributed to the recovery in both goods retail and catering income, with goods retail growing by 5.9% and catering income by 5.6% compared to the previous months [12][14]. - The online retail sales for the first three months of 2025 totaled 36,242 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, which is a significant recovery from a decline of 4.5% in the same period of 2024 [35][37]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales in March 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a notable recovery from the previous months [11][12]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, improving from a decline of 0.7% in February [11][15]. Segment Analysis - Most consumer goods experienced a rebound in growth, particularly in categories such as home appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, communication equipment, and sports entertainment products [2][20]. - Essential categories like grain and oil food saw a significant increase of 13.8%, while daily necessities grew by 8.8% [16][17]. - Among optional categories, home appliances surged by 35.1%, furniture by 29.5%, and communication equipment by 28.6%, indicating strong consumer demand [20][23]. Online Retail Performance - The online retail sales for the first quarter of 2025 reached 36,242 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, accounting for 29.07% of total retail sales [35][37]. - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 29,948 billion yuan, growing by 5.7%, with food items seeing a notable increase of 14.0% [35][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, particularly the white liquor industry, which is expected to recover due to economic stimulus policies and pent-up demand from events like weddings [39][42]. - The consumer services sector is highlighted as a key area for growth, with tourism and education benefiting from policy support [39][42]. - In the retail sector, gold and jewelry are recommended due to their appeal as safe-haven assets amid global trade uncertainties [39][42].

Market Overview - The main indices showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.27% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry sectors, telecommunications, real estate, and banking performed well, while agriculture, commerce, and food and beverage sectors lagged behind [1] Concept Sector Performance - Overall, cobalt mining, 5G, and satellite internet concepts performed relatively well, whereas dairy, biotechnology, and food processing concepts showed weaker performance [1]

周四指数窄幅波动，沪指尾盘收红。周四 A 股全天窄幅波动，波幅仅 27 个指数点，虽然经历了连续 8 个交易日的上涨，市场观望情绪开始加大，追 涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐 点。尽管"对等关税"的后续影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场 情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范 围加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务 依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和消费主线，预计会受益于未来的对冲政策。 热点板块：出口占比较高的行业，以及在东南亚大规模建厂的公司适度回避。但科技自主可控中 ...

商贸零售 2025 年 04 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《关税冲击持续，关注内需优质渠道 和产品龙头—行业周报》-2025.4.13 《关注老铺黄金、毛戈平等高端消费 国潮品牌—行业周报》-2025.4.6 《业绩密集披露，关注高增持续兑现 及 结 构 优 化 的 标 的 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.3.30 2025 年 3 月社零同比+5.9%，期待后续消费潜力释放 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070031 3 月社零同比+5.9%，一季度社会消费开局良好 国家统计局发布 2025 年一季度社会消费品零售总额（下简称 ...

一季度净利润增幅排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告日 | 业绩预告类 | 预计净利润增幅中值 | 今年以来涨跌 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期 | 型 | （%） | （%） | | | 600206 | 有研新 材 | 2025.04.15 | 预增 | 14723.00 | 1.79 | 电子 | | 301165 | 锐捷网 | 2025.04.09 | 预增 | 4726.53 | -4.58 | 通信 | | | 络 | | | | | | | 688582 | 芯动联 | 2025.04.09 | 预盈 | 2815.01 | 28.86 | 电子 | | | 科 | | | | | | | 688186 | 广大特 | 2025.03.31 | 预增 | 1504.79 | 60.33 | 钢铁 | | | 材 | | | | | | | 002734 | 利民股 | 2025.04.08 | 预盈 | 1395.38 | 45.67 | 基础化 | | | 份 | | | | | 工 | | 600969 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，公司今日公布了2024年报，共实现营业收入276.75亿元，同比下降9.32%， 实现净利润15.67亿元，同比增长292.73%，基本每股收益为0.88元，加权平均净资产收益率为8.38%。 资金面上看，该股今日主力资金净流入3468.47万元，近5日主力资金净流入2035.14万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为5.96亿元，近5日增加721.67万元，增幅为1.23%。 按申万行业统计，百联股份所属的商贸零售行业共有30家公司公布了2024年度分配方案，派现金额最多 的是中国中免，派现金额为21.72亿元，其次是小商品城、中信金属，派现金额分别为18.10亿元、8.23 亿元。（数据宝） | 2024年度商贸零售行业分红排名 | | --- | | 简称 | | 每10股送转 | 每10股派现 | 派现金额（万 | 派现占净利润比例 | | 股息率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （股） | （元） | 元） | （%） | | （%） | | 中国中 | 免 | 0.00 | 10.5 | ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a broad decline, with consumption and stability sectors performing relatively better [3][10] - The major indices showed a general decline in valuation, with the stable sector performing the best and the ChiNext index performing the weakest [3][10] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, retail, and national defense industries had the highest gains, while power equipment, telecommunications, and machinery equipment performed the weakest [13][35] Group 2 - The overall valuation of the broad market indices has declined, with the current valuations of major indices at around the 50% historical percentile [26][27] - The valuation of various sectors is differentiated, with non-bank financials, coal, oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, transportation, and agriculture at near one-year lows [35][38] - The consumer sector is noted to have relatively cheap valuations based on PE and PB deviation metrics [38][43] Group 3 - The earnings expectations across industries have been generally revised downwards, with the steel sector seeing the largest upward adjustment and the real estate sector experiencing the largest downward adjustment [49]