11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。虽较1—9月回落1.3个百分点，但自8 月以来累计增速已连续三个月保持正向改善。其中，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业平均水平。 单月来看，10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁解读称，系受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快 等因素影响。前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙关注了需求端，他认为，10月份，社会消费品零售总额增速相比上月有所下降，内需不足是影响 工业企业增长的重要原因。 值得一提的是，近日，工业和信息化部会同五部门联合印发了《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方案》），将有 利于企业生产的产品适销对路、优质优价，并激发消费潜力，促进经济循环畅通。 展望下一阶段，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，在利润基数平稳、价格因素改善的共同作用下，预计工业利润累计增速仍将保 持正向改善，但受前期基数逐步抬升等因素制约，回升斜率可能趋于温和。 累计增速连增三个月 自今 ...

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 25, 2025, is 1.27, an increase of 0.02 from November 18 [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" rose by 0.05 to 1.29, while the "30-city commodity housing sales index" fluctuated between 0.44 and 0.46 [1][3] Industrial Sector Performance - From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the growth rate from January to September [19] - The revenue and cost growth rates for the same period were both 0.6 percentage points lower than those from January to September, at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively [19] - State-owned industrial enterprises' profits remained stable compared to the previous year, while joint-stock enterprises saw a profit increase of 1.5% to 44,328.3 billion yuan, foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan enterprises increased by 3.5% to 14,848.6 billion yuan, and private enterprises grew by 1.9% to 16,995.6 billion yuan [19] Profitability by Industry - Profitability varied across industries from January to October 2025, with the mining industry's profit margin rising from 16.68% to 16.76%, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin remained stable at 4.57% [2][19] - The profit margin for the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry decreased from 7.05% to 6.97% [2][19] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 25, 2025, the central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 337.5 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase amount of 1,626.3 billion yuan and a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 17 basis points to 1.41%, while the 7-day repurchase rate remained unchanged at 1.54% [8][9] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 10.84%, 23.06%, and 12.72% respectively, while second-hand housing transaction areas decreased by 5.84%, 2.64%, and 13.86% [30] - The average daily transaction area for all types of housing was below the level of the previous year [30] Consumer Behavior - The average daily box office revenue for movies was 64.23 million yuan, a decrease of 36.73 million yuan from the previous week [34] - The road logistics price index increased by 0.07% over the past month, up 0.48% year-on-year [34] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose by 0.22 points to 99.81, while the RMB to USD exchange rate increased by 187 basis points to 7.0938 [35][38] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX index decreased by 6.13 points to 18.56 [35][38]

Group 1 - The company reported a copper production of 44,024 tons for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, a decrease of approximately 67% compared to 47,183 tons in the same period of 2024 due to unstable power supply affecting the Ruashi mine [1] - Cobalt production fell to 71 tons during the period, a significant decline of about 90.3% from 735 tons in the same period of 2024, attributed to the temporary halt of the SX-EW system and an export ban implemented in February 2025 [1] - The company sold 41,971 tons of copper during the period, a slight increase of 1.5% from 41,368 tons in the same period of 2024, despite the challenges faced [1] Group 2 - The Musonoi project has recently commenced production, becoming the third operational mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with reported resources of 606,000 tons of copper and 174,000 tons of cobalt as of December 31, 2023 [2] - The scale of the Musonoi project exceeds the combined total of the existing Ruashi and Kinsenda mines [2] - The company's shares remain suspended from trading [3]

记者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨周上祺 11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。虽较1—9月回落1.3个百分点，但自8月以来累计增速已连续三 个月保持正向改善。其中， 传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业平均 水平。 单月来看，10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于 卫宁解读称，系受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。前海开源基金首 席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙关注了需求端，他认为，10月份，社会消费品零售总额增速相 比上月有所下降，内需不足是影响工业企业增长的重要原因。 10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。对于10月的数据，于卫宁指出，10月份，受 上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。温彬进一步指出，去年10月在费用成本下降带动下，利润当月同比降幅明显收窄，抬 高了今年10月的同比对比基数，对当月增速形成统计性压制。 值得一提的是，近日，工业和信息化部会同五部门联合印发了《关于增强消费品供需适配性 进一步促 ...

Profit Trends - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of 21.6%[6] - The decline in profit growth is attributed to a combination of falling production volumes and rising prices, alongside a decrease in profit margins[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in October was approximately 5.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from September, deviating from the typical seasonal increase observed in previous years[12] Sector Analysis - The mining sector experienced a revenue decline, with coal mining and non-metallic mineral extraction showing monthly revenue growth rates of -13.9% and -23.9%, respectively[20] - The beverage and alcohol manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 3.0%, up 27.8 percentage points from the previous value, but the profit margin fell to 13.5%, down 4.8 percentage points[20] - Equipment manufacturing continues to lead in revenue growth and maintains a relatively high profit margin, benefiting from overseas expansion and supply chain restructuring[20] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, a slight improvement from September's decline of 2.3%[8] - Seasonal factors related to winter heating demand contributed to price increases in coal mining and processing, with prices rising by 1.6% and 0.8% respectively in October[20] - The overall industrial profit total for October was 577.1 billion yuan, marking a 103.1 billion yuan decrease from September, the lowest level for the same period since 2020[12] Future Outlook - Excluding base effects, there may be a marginal recovery in industrial enterprise profits in November and December, although the base effect could continue to exert downward pressure[21] - Factors such as prolonged holidays and trade tensions have impacted October's industrial profits, but these disturbances are expected to dissipate[21] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not achieve the desired effects, and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations could arise[25]

21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 报道11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业 企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。虽较1—9月回落1.3个百分点，但自8月以来累计增速 已连续三个月保持正向改善。其中，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明显高于行业平均水 平。 单月来看，10月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁解读 称，系受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经 理杨德龙关注了需求端，他认为，10月份，社会消费品零售总额增速相比上月有所下降，内需不足是影 响工业企业增长的重要原因。 值得一提的是，近日，工业和信息化部会同五部门联合印发了《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进 消费的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方案》），将有利于企业生产的产品适销对路、优质优价，并激发 消费潜力，促进经济循环畅通。 "也就是说，老百姓想要什么、喜欢什么，政策就引导鼓励企业琢磨什么、生产什么，以便广大消费者 能买到称心如意的东西、享受到无微不至的服务，有利于企业生产的产品适销对路、优质优价。推动供 需总体适 ...

2025 年 11 月 27 日 总量研究 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 利润率改善驱动企业利润加速修复——2025 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-10-27） 8 月工业企业利润缘何高增？——2025 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-09-27） "反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-08-27） 企业利润继续承压，亟待"反内卷"政策提 振——2025 年 6 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-07-27） 10 月盈利增速再次转负，需要担心吗？ ——2025 年 10 月工业企业盈利数据点评 工业企业利润增速缘何回落？——2025 年 5 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-06-27） 中游制造业支撑利润增长——2025年4月工 业企业盈利数据点评（2025-05-27） 工业企业盈利恢复向好——2025年3月工业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.13%. During the roll - over period, trading volume remained stable while open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are fair, inventory continues to decline, but demand weakens seasonally, and the actual situation is still weak, putting pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.27%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, and demand has weakened, with weak fundamentals, putting pressure on the coil price. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly with a daily increase of 0.44%. Both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to rise, but ore demand is weakening, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Among them, the profit of state - holding enterprises was 1849.02 billion yuan, remaining flat year - on - year; that of joint - stock enterprises was 4432.83 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1484.86 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5%; and that of private enterprises was 1699.56 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9%. The mining industry's profit was 712.33 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 4505.03 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%; and the power, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 732.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition. It pointed out that the problem of disorderly price competition in some industries is still prominent, and some enterprises fail to implement the requirements for standardizing price competition, and there are still behaviors disrupting the market price order. The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work to manage disorderly price competition and maintain a good market price order [8]. - In October, the procurement costs of coking coal and iron ore varieties increased month - on - month, with a relatively large increase in coking coal; the costs of pig iron, scrap steel and alloy varieties decreased month - on - month. From January to October, the procurement costs of various varieties decreased significantly year - on - year, and the decline of major varieties narrowed compared with January - September. The weighted average procurement cost converted to dry basis in October was 1321.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 54.12 yuan/ton or 4.27%; the cumulative average procurement cost from January to October was 1257.28 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 573.84 yuan/ton or 31.34% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3210 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3289 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3290 yuan/ton and 3230 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3320 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively, and the national average decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2980 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2080 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The coil - rebar price difference was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap price difference was 1130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 799 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 808 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.73 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/ton; from Brazil was 24.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/ton. The SGX swap price (current month) was 104.90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.10 US dollars/ton; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.75 US dollars/ton [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3093 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The trading volume was 753,252 lots, an increase of 83 lots; the open interest was 1,069,617 lots, a decrease of 131,083 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The trading volume was 379,233 lots, an increase of 76,467 lots; the open interest was 876,319 lots, a decrease of 58,870 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 199,651 lots, a decrease of 2,318 lots; the open interest was 414,346 lots, a decrease of 5,496 lots [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][29] 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 1.88 tons month - on - month, with a slight contraction in supply. However, the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency daily trading has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry is weak, and demand is expected to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory reduction is limited. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.00 tons month - on - month, with supply rising at a high level and high inventory pressure. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 4.20 tons month - on - month, but it is still at a relatively high level. The contradictions in the downstream cold - rolling industry remain unresolved, and external demand improvement is limited, so demand resilience is likely to weaken. It is expected to continue the bottom - seeking through fluctuations, and attention should be paid to steel - mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and terminal ore consumption has declined. The average daily pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month last week. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and combined with production - restriction disturbances, iron ore demand continues to be weak. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipment of overseas miners has decreased, but both are at high levels this year. External ore supply is positive, and domestic ore production is stable, with ore supply remaining at a high level. Short - term positive factors support the ore price to rise, but demand is weakening, and supply remains high. The fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].

Core Insights - In the first ten months, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][2] - In October, profits decreased by 5.5% year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year and rising financial costs [2] - The traditional industries are showing initial signs of improved productivity, with profits significantly above the industry average [3] Summary by Categories Profit Performance - From January to October, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] - In October alone, profits fell by 5.5% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and increased financial expenses [2] - Cumulative profit growth has been positive since August, with mining profits down by 27.8%, manufacturing up by 7.7%, and utilities up by 9.5% [2] Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries have shown significant profit growth, with specific sectors like graphite and carbon products, biochemical pesticides, and cultural chemical products seeing profits rise by 77.7%, 73.4%, and 19.1% respectively, all exceeding their industry averages [3] - In the chemical fiber, rubber, and plastic sectors, profits in bio-based chemical fiber and recycled rubber manufacturing grew by 61.2% and 15.4%, respectively, also surpassing industry averages [3] Structural Optimization - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors have maintained rapid growth, with equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 7.8%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [4] - High-tech manufacturing profits rose by 8.0%, outpacing the overall industrial average by 6.1 percentage points [4] - Notable growth was observed in the smart unmanned aerial vehicle and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing sectors, with profits increasing by 116.1% and 114.9%, respectively [4]

前10个月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长1.9%，连增三个月。 11月27日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。10月当月受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费 用增长较快等因素影响，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。值得一提的是，国家统计局表示，前10个月累计，传统产业新质生产力发展成效初步显现，利润明 显高于行业平均水平。 上年同期基数有所抬高等拖累利润表现 10月当月，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%。国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁分析，受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。 不过，8月份以来，工业企业利润累计增速连续三个月保持增长。从三大门类看，1—10月份，采矿业下降27.8%，降幅较1—9月份收窄1.5个百分点；制造业增长 7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.5%。 于卫宁表示，1—10月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长1.8%，营业收入持续保持增长，为工业企业盈利恢复创造有利条件。此外，营业收入利润率为 5.25%，同比提高0.01个百分点。 传统产业提质升级成效显现 据介绍，1—10月份， ...