1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting set the policy direction after the change in the external environment. In the short - term, the focus is on accelerating the implementation of previously established policies, with sufficient policy reserves for potential additional hedging in the future. High - frequency data shows that foreign trade impact is increasing, and domestic real - estate sales are under pressure. It is expected that the macro data in April will weaken moderately. Near - term policies will focus on the implementation of structural policy tools emphasized in the Politburo meeting. Later, when the real impact of trade frictions on the economy and the direction of tariffs are clearer, domestic policies may be further strengthened, including the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [8]. - Gold's current adjustment is tactical, and its strategic upward trend is unlikely to end easily. The short - term performance of gold is highly affected by the US tariff negotiation process. Even if gold prices fall due to the US loosening on tariffs, it may indicate that the US economy has been affected by tariffs, and the recession - interest rate cut chain may fuel gold's rebound in the second quarter [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Risk preference is rising. The adjustment is tactical, and the strategic upward trend is difficult to end. The short - term performance is affected by US tariff negotiations. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04, with a daily decline of 0.91%, and the night - session closing price was 793.68, with a night - session increase of 1.57%. The trend strength is 0 [9][13][17]. - **Silver**: It is stabilizing and rebounding. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2506 was 8168, with a daily decline of 1.35%, and the night - session closing price was 8244.00, with a night - session increase of 0.48%. The trend strength is 0 [13][17]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports prices. Yesterday, the closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,580, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trend strength is 0 [13][21]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The沪铝主力合约 closed at 19935, down 95. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - **Alumina**: It is still searching for a bottom. The沪氧化铝主力合约 closed at 2862. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound consolidation. The沪锌主力 closed at 22520, down 1.01%. The trend strength is 0 [13][27]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The沪铅主力 closed at 17005, up 0.35%. The trend strength is 0 [13][30]. - **Nickel**: The upward and downward spaces are converging, and the nickel price may oscillate in a narrow range. The沪镍主力 closed at 124,690, down 1,110. The trend strength is 0 [13][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, and there is a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk. The不锈钢主力 closed at 12,765, up 85. The trend strength is 0 [13][33]. - **Tin**: It is slightly recovering. The沪锡主力 closed at 262,840, up 1.26%. The trend strength is 0 [13][36][37]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and the disk is weakly oscillating. The Si2506 closed at 8,800, up 20. The trend strength is - 1 [13][43][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The news is fermenting, and the disk is also weakly oscillating. The PS2506 closed at 37,780, down 610. The trend strength is - 1 [13][44]. 3.4 Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand under the high basis. The 2507 contract closed at 66,960, down 1,220. The trend strength is 0 [13][47][48]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The futures closed at 710.5, up 1.5. The trend strength is 0 [13][51][52]. - **Rebar**: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The RB2510 closed at 3,129, up 19. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The HC2510 closed at 3,237, up 27. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is oscillating at a low level. The硅铁2506 closed at 5648, up 8. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: It is oscillating at a low level. The锰硅2506 closed at 5746, up 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - **Coke**: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The J2509 closed at 1562, down 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - **Coking Coal**: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The JM2509 closed at 947, down 9. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it is weakly oscillating. The动力煤ZC2505 had no trading yesterday. The trend strength is 0 [13][66][67]. 3.6 Building Materials - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG509 closed at 1122, down 0.53%. The trend strength is 0 [13][70][71]. 3.7 Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The processing fee is expanding. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. The 28 - day PX valuation was 758 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][80]. - **PTA**: It is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][81]. - **MEG**: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the month - spread. The trend strength is 0 [13][76][81]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating. The trend strength is not provided in the text [13][82].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, MMG's copper production reached just over 118,000 tonnes, a 76% increase compared to the same quarter last year [20] - The total recordable injury frequency was 2.4 per million hours worked, with a significant events frequency of 1.08 per million hours worked, both metrics increased from the last quarter [18][19] - The company reported a record high ore mined volume of over 20 million tonnes for the quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Las Bambas produced over 95,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, a 71% increase compared to the same period last year [20] - Kinsevere produced almost 12,000 tonnes of copper cathode, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year [22] - Khoemakau produced close to 11,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, a 4% increase from the previous quarter despite severe rainfall [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing favorable market conditions, including declining TCRC rates for copper and zinc concentrates and rising precious metal prices [25] - The operations at Las Bambas are stable and in good order, with expectations to meet the upper limit of production guidance for the year [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - MMG aims to become one of the top 10 global copper producers, focusing on safety performance, project delivery, and the integration of the Nickel Brazil acquisition [25][26] - The company is conducting a comprehensive review of its 2025 production and cost guidance [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about production meeting guidance levels, contingent on no nationwide incidents affecting operations [32] - The company is focused on improving community relations and has successfully established contracts with local community companies for transportation [30] Other Important Information - The company is progressing with the feasibility study for expanding capacity at Las Bambas, with production expected to reach 60,000 tonnes by 2026 and 130,000 tonnes by 2028 [42] - The company is actively working with the tax authority in Peru to resolve ongoing tax disputes, with no significant impact expected on cash flow or corporate income tax rates [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for production at Las Bambas - Management indicated that production is expected to meet the upper limit of guidance if no nationwide incidents occur [30] Question: Inventory adjustments at Las Bambas - Sales in Q1 increased due to inventory sold from Q4 last year, and production is sticking to guidance [33] Question: Power outages at Kinsevere - Management confirmed that production is on track with guidance, and diesel power generation is used as a backup [35] Question: C1 cost expectations - C1 costs are expected to decrease as production increases, with improvements linked to precious metal prices [55] Question: Capital allocation and dividend policy - The company is focused on debt repayment, CapEx, and cautious M&A, with a strong capacity to generate cash [57] Question: Tax issues in Las Bambas - Management is optimistic about resolving tax disputes with minimal impact on cash flow or tax rates [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are weakly influenced by the Sino-US trade tension, but the short - term selling sentiment has slightly eased. The potential upside of the US copper tariff still has room for imagination. It is expected that the short - term copper price will fluctuate greatly, and it is advisable to be cautious about bottom - fishing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased with increasing positions, hitting a new low since last September. The Shanghai - London ratio has dropped to 8.38, and the import window has closed. The internal - external price difference caused by the daily limit has returned to normal. The downstream transactions were active, and it is expected that the inventory will be reduced at an accelerated pace. The COMEX - LME premium has dropped to 690. Under the dual influence of the Sino - US trade conflict and the potential upside of the US copper tariff, the short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate greatly [8] 3.2. Industry News - Ontario will provide about CAD 11 billion (USD 77 billion) in relief to workers and enterprises, including a six - month deferral of corporate taxes (including mining taxes) and a USD 2 billion tax refund for safety employers [9] - Ivanhoe Mines announced that due to a significant increase in imported hydropower supply, the Kamoa - Kakula project has reached a major turning point, and the on - site copper smelter has been launched. The copper production in the first quarter was close to a record of 133,120 tons, and the quarterly output is expected to continue to increase [9] - Codelco's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was slightly higher than the same period last year. Despite the power outage in February, it still maintained its annual production target of 1.37 - 1.4 million tons, aiming for a second consecutive year of production growth [10]

铜材"大挪移"放大供需矛盾 产业链上下游"几家欢喜几家愁" 新华财经上海3月25日电（葛佳明） 美国关税政策不确定性引发的"抢铜"潮仍未见平息，美国铜进口激增或改变全球铜市场的供需格局，推动铜价走 强。 今年以来，纽约、伦敦、上海三地铜价持续攀升。其中，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）主力铜期货合约持续攀升，截至发稿报价约5.1470美元／磅，刷 新历史高位，3月来市场累计涨幅接近13%，今年来累计涨幅则达28%，远超黄金同期约14%的涨幅。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价近期上破10000美元／吨后展开震荡盘整，截至发稿，伦铜回落至每吨9995美元附近，仍逼近年内高位，年初至今涨幅达 到12%。上海市场铜期货主力合约则持续高位震荡，25日收盘报81910元／吨，年初迄今涨幅达11%。 分析师普遍认为，本轮铜价上行已不再是简单的"商品行情"，而是全球地缘政治、供需错配以及产业链传导多因素叠加所致。由于新能源汽车、光伏、 储能、电网改造等行业未来对铜的需求大幅上升，铜的"关键金属"角色短期仍难改。 美国"抢铜"造成短期供应混乱 美国关税政策的不确定性，导致市场对美国国内铜供应短缺的担忧加剧。全球铜供应商、交易商争相在 ...

Summary of Global Copper Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Copper** industry, highlighting a bullish outlook for 2025 with specific recommendations for various companies across different regions [2][5][34]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Copper Price Trends**: - LME Copper prices have increased by **15% YTD** to approximately **US$10,000/t** due to Chinese stimulus and supply disappointments [2][5]. - Comex Copper prices in the US are up **25% YTD** to over **US$5/lb** (~**US$11,200/t**) driven by US copper import tariff concerns [2][5]. 2. **Chinese Economic Activity**: - Chinese economic activity has exceeded expectations with **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)** growing **4.1% YoY** in January-February compared to **2.2% YoY** in December 2024 [5]. - Policymakers announced a **5% GDP growth target** and additional fiscal support of **RMB400-600 billion** (0.3-0.5% of GDP) to boost consumption [2][5]. 3. **Copper Demand Forecast**: - Near-term indicators show strong demand with visible copper inventories in China below the 5-year seasonal range and physical premia up **23% YTD** [2][5][10]. - Long-term forecasts predict a shift to a **3Mtpa deficit** in the global copper market by **2030E**, with prices expected to rise to **US$11,500/t** (~**US$5.20/lb**) by **Q2'26** [2][6][34]. 4. **Company Recommendations**: - **EMEA Region**: - **Antofagasta**: Rated **Overweight (OW)** due to **30% copper volume growth** to **2028E**, the highest among EMEA peers [2][7][34]. - **Lundin Mining**: Rated **OW** for its attractive valuation at **~5x** spot **2025/26E EV/EBITDA** compared to peers at **9-10x** [2][7][34]. - **Rio Tinto**: Rated **OW** with expected **30% copper growth** to **2028E** and inexpensive valuation [2][7][34]. - **Americas**: - **Freeport**: Upgraded to **OW** with a focus on defensive value and potential benefits from US-based premium pricing [2][7][34]. - **Teck Resources**: Rated **OW** for near-term copper growth and debt reduction strategies [2][7][34]. - **Asia Pacific**: - **Zijin Mining**: Rated **OW** for robust growth supported by copper and gold price cycles [2][7][34]. - **Capstone Copper**: Initiated at **OW** due to undemanding valuation and growth potential [2][7][34]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates that mine supply growth is expected to slow from **+3% in 2024** to **+1% in 2025E**, which will likely lag behind structural demand growth [6][34]. - The forecast includes a potential **1.9 million tonnes** substitution loss by **2030** under severe scenarios [8][20]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff risks and their impact on pricing dynamics, particularly for US-based operations [7][34]. - The analysis includes a detailed breakdown of expected EBITDA progression and valuation metrics for various companies, highlighting the potential for significant upside in selected stocks [34][36]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global copper market.

[Table_Main] 铜企五大要素变化趋势与股东回报 ——海外 16 家年报全扫描 事件描述 根据现有已披露年报的 16 家海外铜企（必和必拓、自由港、智利国家铜业、 南方铜业、嘉能可、英美资源、力拓、安托法加斯塔、俄镍、泰克资源、第一 量子、伦丁矿业、淡水河谷、顶石铜业、巴里克黄金、哈铜 KAZ等），我们 对其产量、资源量、储量、成本、战略规划等进行分析。 事件点评 2024 年海外样本企业并购/勘探在路上。根据 S&P，2024 年样本铜企合计资 源量同比+2%，合计储量同比+4%，实现的主要方式为并购或勘探。并购方 面，近 2 年，必和必拓和顶石铜业在并购市场上较为活跃。勘探方面，力拓 2024 年勘探投入同比+9%，其中铜的勘探占 36%，为最大勘探投入部分；安 托法加斯塔也在 2024 年通过棕地开发实现了增储。 2024 年海外头部铜企产量基本满足预期。2024 年矿产铜产量合计为 1204.3 万吨，同比+16.3 万吨，同比增速为 1.4%。从产量指引兑现度来看，2024 年 实际合计产量基本和 2024 年初的产量指引一致。 展望 2025 年样本铜企产量较为稳定，给予铜价基本面支撑。根 ...