下半年"十五五"演绎重点关注"新质"部分。里面的细分就比较多，新战机，新材料，AI+，数据链，无 人化等等，甚至可以更偏题材概念点。昨日大阳线就是第一天信号，昨日国防军工类个股中含"新"量明 显有所提升。这种切换下，买ETF也是比较好的选择，因为ETF中含主机厂量较高。 国防ETF紧密跟踪中证国防指数，中证国防指数选取隶属于十大军工集团公司旗下的上市公司证券，以 及为国家武装力量提供武器装备，或与军方有实际装备承制销售金额或签订合同的相关上市公司证券作 为指数样本，以反映国防产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证国防指数(399973)前十大权重股分别为中航沈飞(600760)、航发动 力(600893)、中航光电(002179)、中航西飞(000768)、中航机载(600372)、海格通信(002465)、航天电子 (600879)、中航成飞(302132)、睿创微纳(688002)、西部超导(688122)，前十大权重股合计占比43.29%。 截至2025年7月18日上午收盘，国防ETF(512670)上涨1.01%，最新价报0.802元，创年内新高。 规模方面，国防ETF ...

Group 1 - The market shows a structural opportunity with indices rising due to strong performance in select sectors, while over 3000 stocks are experiencing adjustments [1][4] - The rare earth sector is notably strong, with companies like Jiu Wu Gao Ke hitting the daily limit up, supported by supply-demand dynamics and policy focus, alongside increasing demand from the new energy and military sectors [3][4] - The lithium mining sector is also gaining traction, with companies like Fu Miao Technology reaching the daily limit up, driven by a recovery in the new energy supply chain and stable lithium prices [3][4] Group 2 - The military industry is active, with Tian Qin Equipment rising over 12%, reflecting its connection to geopolitical and policy factors, although it may experience volatility [3][4] - Some sectors, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and photovoltaics, are facing declines, indicating a normal market rotation as funds shift focus [3][4] - The overall market dynamics suggest that while some sectors are performing well, others are consolidating, and investors should assess the fundamental support of their holdings [4]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.30%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.26%. The North China 50 Index fell by 0.48%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,029.3 billion yuan, an increase of 118.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Over 3,000 stocks in the market declined [1]. Sector Performance - The rare earth, lithium mining, and military industry sectors saw gains, while the innovative drug and photovoltaic sectors underwent adjustments. The rare earth sector experienced a significant rise, with stocks like Jiuwu High-Tech (300631) hitting the daily limit, and North Rare Earth (600111) reaching a three-year high. The lithium mining sector remained strong, with stocks such as Fumiao Technology and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) also hitting the daily limit. The military sector saw Tianqin Equipment (300922) rise over 12%. In contrast, the innovative drug sector faced fluctuations, with stocks like Guangsheng Tang (300436) and Zhijiang Biology dropping over 5%. The photovoltaic sector adjusted, with stocks like Yamaton (002623) falling over 8% [2]. Hot Stocks - The strongest stocks included Upwind New Materials, which achieved an 8-day consecutive limit-up streak [3]. - Other notable stocks with consecutive limit-ups included Haixing Co., Ltd. (603115) with a 3-day streak, and several others with 2-day streaks [4]. Sector Trends - The energy-saving and environmental protection sector led with 8 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Upwind New Materials and Beihua Co., Ltd. [5]. - The robotics concept sector also had 8 stocks hitting the daily limit, with Upwind New Materials and Construction Industry leading [6]. - The "specialized, refined, and innovative" sector saw 8 stocks hitting the daily limit, with Haixing Co., Ltd. and Beihua Co., Ltd. being notable mentions [7]. Emerging Technologies - In the brain-computer interface sector, companies like Yuke Technology and Entropy Technology are involved, following a breakthrough in clinical trials that could benefit patients with speech impairments [10]. - The AI agent sector is gaining attention with companies like Century Tianhong and Yanhua Intelligent, following the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT Agent, which can perform complex tasks [11]. - The silicon energy sector is experiencing significant changes, with the main contract for polysilicon futures rising by 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton, marking a new high. The price increase is driven by rising upstream silicon material prices and changes in the profit distribution within the photovoltaic industry [12][13].

午评：沪指半日涨0.34% 稀土永磁概念股集体大涨 智通财经7月18日电，市场早盘冲高回落，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市半日成交额1.02万亿，较上个 交易日放量1163亿。盘面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3000只个股下跌。从板块来看，稀 土永磁概念股集体大涨，华宏科技涨停。锂矿股持续活跃，盛新锂能涨停。军工股震荡走强，天秦装备 涨超10%。下跌方面，光伏概念股展开调整，亚玛顿跌超5%。板块方面，稀土永磁、锂矿、煤炭、军 工等板块涨幅居前，游戏、光伏、美容护理、消费电子等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.34%，深 成指涨0.3%，创业板指涨0.26%。 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 18 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3516.83 | 0.37% | 13.05 | | | 深证成指 | 10873.62 | 1.43% | 152.81 | | | 沪深 300 | 4034.49 | 0.68% | 27.29 | | | 创业板 | 2269.33 | 1.75% | 39.13 | | | 科创 50 | 1005.65 | 0.80% | 8.02 | | | 北证 50 | 1428.11 | 0.86% | 12.13 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.74% ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share military industry sector has strengthened again, with Tianqin Equipment rising over 10%, following consecutive gains from Construction Industry, and other companies like Guankang Technology, High-Precision Infrared, Zhongwu Drone, 6912, and Aero Engine Power also experiencing increases [1] Group 1 - Tianqin Equipment's stock price increased by more than 10% [1] - Construction Industry has achieved consecutive gains [1] - Other companies in the military sector, including Guankang Technology, High-Precision Infrared, Zhongwu Drone, 6912, and Aero Engine Power, have also seen stock price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, with technology stocks playing a significant role in the rebound [1][2]. Market Outlook - The market is likely in a phase of consolidation before a breakout, with two potential paths: continuing the upward trend or consolidating before challenging previous highs [2]. - Three conditions are necessary for a direct challenge to the previous high of 3674 points: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global environment easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Sector Highlights - The A-share market in July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with a high likelihood of sector rotation [3]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3]. 2. Robotics, with a shift from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, presenting opportunities in sensors and controllers [3]. 3. Semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 4. Military industry, with expectations of order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports [3]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to see a fundamental turning point in 2025 after a period of adjustment [3]. Market Review - The A-share market showed signs of stabilization and resumed an upward trend, with the ChiNext index rising over 1.7% [4]. - More than 3500 stocks rose, indicating a positive earning effect, with leading sectors including defense, telecommunications, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4].

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing active trading, with the China Securities Military Industry Index showing positive performance, and specific stocks like Construction Industry and Yingliu Co. hitting their daily limit up [1] - The Defense and Military ETF (512810) has seen an increase of 0.76% in its market price, with a trading volume exceeding 55 million yuan [2] - According to Shenwan Securities, the defense and military industry is entering an upward cycle, driven by domestic demand from military modernization and an expanding global military trade due to geopolitical changes, which is expected to enhance industry valuation [4] Group 2 - The defense and military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool that covers various sectors including commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, military AI, low-altitude economy, and large aircraft, making it suitable for investors looking to engage in the defense sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Citigroup upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "Overweight," with a year - end target of 25,000 for the Hang Seng Index and 4,200 for the CSI 300 Index [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets: Driven by strong growth in US retail sales data in June and a continuous decline in the number of initial jobless claims, the three major US stock indexes closed higher [2] - Domestic markets: The A - share market continues its structural market characteristics. The national defense and military industry sector leads the gains, highlighting the performance - driven main line. Sectors with performance support such as rare earth permanent magnets, biomedicine, and consumer electronics are expected to regain upward momentum based on fundamental advantages after a short - term technical correction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68% to 4,034.49 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23% to 2,744.26 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% to 6,082.46 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% to 6,535.67 points [12] - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded to 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - **Charts**: Include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IH and IF contracts increased synchronously. The trading volume of IC and IM contracts decreased, while the open interest increased [1][16] - **Basis**: The basis of the current - month contracts basically converged. The report details the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [1][36][38] - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc., along with their changes [46][47] - **Charts**: Include charts of contract open interest, open - interest ratios, foreign - funded net open positions, basis, and inter - period spreads for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of discovering investment opportunities with a proactive attitude rather than merely relaying information [1] Macro News Summary - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the expansion of pilot programs in the telecommunications and healthcare sectors, while also cautiously expanding self-initiated openings in education and culture [4] - The central government has set new directions for urban development, focusing on urban renewal and real estate development [5] Industry Latest Developments - A record high for single order amounts has been achieved, indicating a potential acceleration in the commercialization of the low-altitude economy, with related stocks including Nanjing Julong (300644) and Yingboer (300681) [6] - The national maximum electricity load has reached a new historical high, suggesting continued positive performance for the electricity sector, with related stocks such as Shanghai Electric (600021) and Jinkong Electric (000767) [6] - A brain-computer interface technology developer conference is scheduled for August, which may catalyze related sectors, with stocks like Innovation Medical (002176) and Aipeng Medical (300753) being relevant [6] Company Focus - Chongda Technology (002815) is experiencing strong domestic and international order demand [7] - Guoxuan High-Tech (002074) has received EU battery regulation compliance certification for its 5MWh liquid-cooled energy storage system [7] - East Asia Machinery (301028) anticipates increased demand for air compressors and vacuum pumps due to accelerated domestic substitution processes [7] - Jinxin Technology (300252) has developed products compatible with Intel's next-generation platform Oak Stream (PCIE 6.0) [7] Market Review and Outlook - On July 17, the market experienced an overall upward trend, with the ChiNext Index leading gains. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion, an increase of 97.3 billion from the previous trading day [8] - The report highlights several investment opportunities, including: 1. Technology innovation sectors such as robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy (digital currency), with a caution to avoid purely speculative stocks with high valuations [8] 2. Anti-involution sectors including photovoltaics, batteries, energy storage, new energy vehicles, building materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals [8] 3. Areas benefiting from consumption upgrades and policies, including innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer healthcare, equipment upgrades, smart homes, cross-border e-commerce, and industrial upgrades [8]