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油脂油料周度策略:油脂累库,上行动力不足-20250725
Hua An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 08:24
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The outlook for US soybean oil consumption is positive due to bio - diesel policies, leading to a relatively strong performance in US soybean oil. However, the price of CBOT soybeans is under pressure because of favorable growing conditions for US soybeans. In China, high oil - mill operating rates have increased soybean oil supply, causing continuous inventory accumulation and limiting the upside potential of soybean oil prices [2]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month in May, driven by increased demand from India and China. But ASA data indicates that the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 15.2% month - on - month in the first half of July, suggesting a recent weakening in exports. In China, the rapid recovery of import profits for near - term shipments has led to active purchasing and an increase in domestic palm oil inventory. The supply - demand pattern of Malaysian palm oil is widening, which may limit the upside of palm oil prices [2]. - Due to the improvement in China - Australia trade relations, future imports of Australian rapeseed will increase domestic rapeseed supply, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. However, domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue de - stocking. Current demand for rapeseed oil is low, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand and mainly following the trends of other oils [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The growing conditions for US soybeans are good, putting pressure on the price of CBOT soybeans. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month in May due to strong export demand, but the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 15.2% month - on - month in the first 25 days of July [5]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71% and the previous week's 70%, but the same as the same period last year. Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased to 2.9 million tons, a 4.27% month - on - month decrease. Its export volume of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase. The production of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% increase from last year. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from July 1 - 25, 2025, was 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June [6]. Soybean Oil - According to Steel Union research, last week, the actual soybean oil production of sample oil mills was 438,000 tons, with an operating rate of 64.81%. The operating rate is expected to decline this week. As of July 18, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 1.0918 million tons, a 4.04% week - on - week increase. Terminal consumption is weak, and the basis is weak. The supply pressure limits the upside of soybean oil prices [9]. Palm Oil - As of July 18, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 591,400 tons, a 5.04% month - on - month increase and a 23.49% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption has reached 7.42 million kiloliters this year, completing 47.5% of the 2025 quota. The new industrial consumption expectation has made palm oil prices run strongly. However, the supply - demand pattern of Malaysian palm oil is widening, which may limit the upside of palm oil prices [12]. Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous period. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 92,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week. Due to tight raw material supply, oil mills are expected to maintain a low operating rate. The improvement in China - Australia trade relations will increase the supply of imported rapeseed, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices [15]. Vegetable Oil Price Spread - The improvement in China - Australia trade relations and the expected increase in Australian rapeseed imports will lead to an increase in rapeseed supply. Rapeseed oil is relatively weak in the oil and fat sector [18]. 4. Next Week's Focus - USDA weekly crop growth report; Malaysian palm oil export report and production report [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250725
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons in 2025 [2] - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) anticipates that India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year, with total edible oil imports remaining at 16 million tons in the 2024/25 season ending in October [2] - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year [2] - Night - time trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a decline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than the expected 71%. With possible high - temperature stress in the southwest and improved export prospects, US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, due to the push for soybean meal substitution and a loose supply, Dalian soybean meal futures are weak in the short term [2] - Night - time trading of rapeseed and palm oil showed a slight decline, while soybean oil fluctuated strongly. Positive fundamentals in Indonesia and expected growth in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will support palm oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, with biofuel policies, the central price of edible oils is expected to rise slowly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8166 for soybean oil, 9104 for palm oil, 9492 for rapeseed oil, 3025 for soybean meal, 2671 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 92, 110, 36, - 70, - 78, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 1.22%, - 3.15%, - 2.26%, - 2.84%, and 0.29% [1] - For spreads, the current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 were 52, 44, 53, - 938, 1326, and 388 respectively, compared to previous values of 44, 20, 53, - 920, 1382, and 462 [1] - For ratio - spreads, the current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 were - 34, 270, 343, 1.13, 2.70, and 5141 respectively, compared to previous values of - 21, 314, 337, 1.12, 2.61, and 4979 [1] International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4244 (Malaysian ringgit/ton) for BMD palm oil, 1025 (cents/bushel) for CBOT soybeans, 56 (cents/pound) for CBOT US soybean oil, and 283 (US dollars/ton) for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were 48, 3, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 0.24%, 0.86%, and - 0.84% [1] Domestic Spot Market - The current spot prices of domestic products were 8280 and 8330 for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, 9150 and 9050 for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, 9540 and 9460 for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, with percentage changes of 0.61%, 0.85%, 0.55%, 0.56%, - 0.42%, and - 0.42% respectively [1] - The current spot prices of other products were 2870 and 2890 for Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, 2570 and 2560 for Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, 7600 and 7550 for Linyi and Anyang peanuts, with percentage changes of - 2.05%, - 1.70%, - 3.38%, - 3.40%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - The current spot spreads were - 670 for the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, 1350 for the difference between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and 240 for the difference between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal, compared to previous values of - 670, 1310, and 239 respectively [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month products were - 311 for Malaysian palm oil, - 235 for US Gulf soybeans, - 62 for Brazilian soybeans, 93 for US West soybeans, 696 for Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and 369 for Canadian rapeseeds, compared to previous values of - 297, - 207, - 13, 129, 657, and 402 respectively [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts were 21,695 for soybean oil, 334 for palm oil, 3,487 for rapeseed oil, 40,714 for soybean meal, 0 for rapeseed meal, and 0 for peanuts, compared to previous values of 21,695, 854, 3,487, 41,446, 0, and 0 respectively [1]
油脂油料早报-20250724
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 08:03
Report Core View - Due to a significant increase in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month-on-month to 2.9 million tons, with exports in May reaching 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% month-on-month increase and a 35.64% year-on-year increase [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period in June, with different production changes in different regions [1]. - AAFC adjusted its forecasts in the July supply - demand report, increasing the estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in the 2024/25 season, raising the export volume forecast of old - crop rapeseed, lowering the production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 200,000 tons, increasing the domestic usage forecast by 500,000 tons, and lowering the ending inventory forecast by 750,000 tons [1]. Key Data Palm Oil Data - Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May was 2.9 million tons, a 4.27% month - on - month decrease [1]. - Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil in May, a nearly 50% month - on - month increase and a 35.64% year - on - year increase [1]. - Indonesia's crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% year - on - year increase [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to June 1 - 20, with a 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [1]. Rapeseed Data - AAFC estimates the 2024/25 Canadian rapeseed production to be close to 19.19 million tons, previously forecasted as 17.85 million tons [1]. - AAFC raised the export volume forecast of old - crop Canadian rapeseed to 9.5 million tons [1]. - AAFC lowered the 2025/26 Canadian rapeseed production forecast by 200,000 tons to 17.8 million tons, based on a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare [1]. - AAFC increased the 2025/26 domestic usage forecast of Canadian rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 11.9 million tons and lowered the ending inventory forecast by 750,000 tons to 1.1 million tons [1]. Spot Price Data | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/07/17 | 2860 | 2600 | 8230 | 8820 | 9570 | | 2025/07/18 | 2880 | 2600 | 8290 | 8980 | 9670 | | 2025/07/21 | 2890 | 2610 | 8260 | 8920 | 9690 | | 2025/07/22 | 2890 | 2620 | 8230 | 8940 | 9600 | | 2025/07/23 | 2900 | 2630 | 8250 | 9000 | 9580 | [1]
油脂油料产业日报-20250723
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 10:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened low, then rose and maintained a high - level volatile consolidation. It's necessary to watch if it can effectively break through the 4,350 ringgit resistance. Given concerns about production growth and export slowdown, it may face a volatile adjustment after reaching a high. Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures market is strong, briefly returning to around 9,000 yuan. It's expected to consolidate between 9,000 - 9,100 yuan. If the Malaysian palm oil falls after reaching a high, the Dalian palm oil may also be pressured [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In late July, some oil mills are urging提货, and market sales are slow, pressuring the basis quotes. In some regions, there is still room for the basis quotes to decline in the short term. As demand gradually increases in August, it will support the basis quotes [4]. 2.2 Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: Supported by the strong rapeseed meal, rising US soybeans, and higher Brazilian premiums, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal briefly broke through the 3,100 - yuan mark. However, as the 2508 contract approaches delivery, beware of the impact of spot - futures convergence on the market. In the short term, focus on the support in the 3,000 - 3,050 - yuan range. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,100 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils 3.1.1 Price Differences - **Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data shows the price differences and their daily changes for various contracts such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 296 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 10 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 874 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 64 yuan [5]. - **Palm Oil Spot - Futures Prices and Basis**: The latest prices and price changes of palm oil contracts (01, 05, 09), BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou are provided. The basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 34 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [7]. - **Soybean Oil Spot - Futures Prices and Basis**: The latest prices and price changes of soybean oil contracts (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong are given. The basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 94 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [12]. 3.2 Oilseeds 3.2.1 Futures Prices - **Oilseed Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of contracts such as soybean meal 01, rapeseed meal 01, and CBOT soybeans are presented. For example, soybean meal 01 closed at 3,116 with a daily increase of 12 and a price change rate of 0.39% [17]. 3.2.2 Price Differences - **Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data includes the price differences and their daily changes for various contracts such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05. For instance, M01 - 05 is 344 with a daily increase of 9, and RM01 - 05 is 60 with a daily increase of 11 [20].
油脂油料产业周报:情绪偏强-20250722
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 13:18
油脂油料产业周报 ——情绪偏强 2025/07/22 南华研究院农产品研究团队 边舒扬(投资咨询证号:Z0012647 ) 靳晚冬(期货从业证号:F03118199 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 国际油料整体观点 对于全球大豆,美豆由于中美和谈预期影响以及美豆产区南部和中西部高温偏干天气影响而反弹,但目前看 产区未来两周略受到高温与降雨偏少影响,但从月度预估来看可能将在后续得到缓解,继续高频关注天气为 主。 对于美国大豆,新作种植方面,美中西部本周优良率超市场预期下调,美国大豆优良率为68%,低于市场预 期的71%,前一周为70%,上年同期为68%,主要由于西南部堪萨斯(从69%降到64%,下降了5个百分 点)、内布拉斯加持续高温,优良率提前下调至可能影响后期鼓粒;种植进度方面仍保持顺利进行,美国大 豆开花率为62%,上一周为47%,上年同期为63%,五年均值为63%。美国大豆结英率为26%,上一周为 15%,上年同期为27%,五年均值为26%。 NOPA公布6月美豆压榨绩效创同期新高,6月预估高于去年36万吨至536万吨,受国内豆油消费增长驱动, 美豆油库存进一步走低,低至62万吨。 ...
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250722
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:57
| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会(SPPOMA)数据显示,2025年7月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比 | | --- | --- | | | 上月同期增加6.19%。2、马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示,马来西亚7月1-20日的棕榈油出口量 | | 行业 | 环比减少7.31%。3、Saveraa International:截至2025年7月15日,印度港口植物油总库存量已 | | | 攀升至855679公吨,较6月30日的722918公吨,在短短半个月内激增18%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕:夜盘豆菜粕震荡下行,美国与印度尼西亚达成贸易协议,将大豆关税从32%降至19%,协 | | | 议中包含印尼采购45亿美元美国农产品(涵盖大豆、玉米和棉花)。作为美国大豆第五大进口 | | | 国,印尼此举有力提振了市场对未来美豆出口需求的信心。同时近期民间出口商向未知目的地销 | | | 售12万吨美国大豆,市场对于中美贸易关系改善预期增加。叠加美豆生柴政策下,需求仍将给美 | | | 豆价格提供支撑,美豆期价出现回升。国内供应宽松格局仍将施压上方空间,短期受进口成本支 | | | 撑预计连 ...
油脂油料产业日报-20250721
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:08
油脂核心观点 油脂油料产业日报 2025/07/21 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ...
棕榈油:基本面无有效利空,宏观情绪助推豆油:美豆天气良好,品种间偏弱运行豆粕:美豆基本面好转,豆粕期价重心上移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:18
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the agricultural products industry. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil shows a bullish trend due to the digestion of inventory highs, a lack of new negative factors, and positive macro - sentiment. Soybean oil is relatively weak due to good weather for US soybeans and a high inventory build - up rate [4][5][7]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The fundamentals of US soybeans have improved, and domestic soybean meal is affected by positive market sentiment and the rebound of US soybean prices. The fundamentals of domestic soybean No.1 remain stable, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment [19][20][24]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to continue its rebound. The supply - demand pattern of corn remains tight, and factors such as the rebound of spot prices in North China, a slight reduction in imported corn supply, and accelerated warrant cancellation are expected to improve market sentiment [46][47][51]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase with a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. Domestically, it shows an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [76][77][113]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton has rebounded due to improved market sentiment, while domestic cotton futures have risen significantly, mainly driven by concerns about tight old - crop inventories and strong market sentiment. Attention should be paid to downstream textile enterprises' operating conditions and policy trends [114][115][132]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is in a weak oscillation. In the off - season, the influence of large - scale farms on price adjustment is significant. With the arrival of the peak season, the release of social stocks will increase. Policy support such as state reserve purchases provides a price floor [135][136]. 3. Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25%, and soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18%. The price of palm oil was boosted by the digestion of inventory highs and positive macro - sentiment, while soybean oil was relatively weak due to good US soybean weather [4][10]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil is in a bullish pattern, but there is a risk of callback if inventory builds up in August - September. Soybean oil will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat sector and is expected to benefit from potential positive factors such as the shortage of soybean imports [5][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean prices rebounded, with the 11 - month contract rising 2.73%. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices also rose, with the soybean meal m2509 contract rising 2.69% and the soybean No.1 a2509 contract rising 2.15% [19][20]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The improvement of US soybean fundamentals and positive market sentiment will support the price of soybean meal, while the price of soybean No.1 is affected by market sentiment and technical factors [24]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices fell last week. In the futures market, the price rebounded, with the C2509 contract closing at 2314 yuan/ton. The basis weakened [46][47]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose due to concerns about high - temperature weather. Wheat prices fell, and the auction of imported corn cooled down. Corn starch inventory increased slightly. The corn market is expected to continue its rebound [48][49][51]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price rose 1.39%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose 16 yuan/ton. The net long position of funds increased slightly [76][77][92]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, the sugar market will be in a low - level consolidation phase. Domestically, it will maintain an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [78][113]. Cotton - **This Week's Review**: ICE cotton rebounded due to improved market sentiment, and domestic cotton futures rose significantly, with the 9 - 1 spread widening. The downstream yarn and grey fabric prices also followed the increase, and textile enterprises replenished raw materials [114][115]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: ICE cotton's upward momentum is limited by good growth conditions and weak consumption prospects. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline if market sentiment cools down [119][132]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: In the spot market, hog prices were weak. In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price was also weak, and the basis narrowed [135]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The state reserve purchase policy provides a price floor [136].
国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数上涨 非金属建材涨幅居前
news flash· 2025-07-18 15:04
Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher during the night session, with non-metallic building materials leading the gains [1] - Glass prices increased by 4.93%, while PVC rose by 2.32% [1] - The black series commodities generally saw increases, with coking coal up by 3.38%, coke by 2.26%, hot-rolled coil by 1.75%, rebar by 1.30%, and iron ore by 0.95% [1] Group 2 - Energy products performed strongly, with fuel oil rising by 2.01% and low-sulfur fuel oil by 1.03% [1] - Most chemical products also saw gains, including styrene up by 2.20%, butadiene rubber by 1.32%, polypropylene by 0.83%, asphalt by 0.77%, plastic by 0.75%, ethylene glycol by 0.64%, and rubber by 0.27% [1] - Oilseeds and oils showed mixed results, with palm oil up by 1.69%, soybean meal by 0.79%, soybean two by 0.62%, and soybean oil by 0.39%, while soybean one fell by 0.52% [1] Group 3 - Agricultural and sideline products experienced slight fluctuations, with pulp up by 0.64%, corn starch by 0.64%, and corn by 0.61% [1]
油脂油料产业日报-20250718
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 12:28
Report Date - The report was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures broke through the annual line resistance of 4,250 ringgit after a brief consolidation and are expected to rise further to the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range. After a short - term resistance, it may retrace to 4,200 ringgit. If it effectively retraces and stabilizes at 4,200 ringgit, there is still a chance to strengthen again. The upward trend remains good, and the view is mainly bullish with fluctuations [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures continued to rise due to the boost from the Malaysian market. The price is approaching 9,000 yuan and may briefly break through 9,000 yuan and even reach 9,100 yuan. It will then fluctuate around 9,000 yuan. If it effectively stands above 9,000 yuan, there is still room for further upward movement. The current strong characteristics are obvious, with a bullish view but attention should be paid to the fluctuation rhythm and whether it can break through and stand above 9,000 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - The downstream demand for soybean oil is weak despite the rising futures price. Some traders offer fixed - price quotes, which drags down the basis quotes. In the short term, the futures still have some upward space, which will continue to affect the spot basis quotes. However, starting from August, market demand is expected to pick up, and with the expected reduction in soybean supply in the fourth quarter, the forward basis quotes will be supported [4]. Bean Meal - In addition to the influence of US soybeans, foreign capital seats such as Qiankun and Morgan significantly reduced short positions and increased long positions, with a net position shift from short to long and a daily position transfer of up to 52,000 lots. China's slow procurement progress in the fourth quarter also provides support. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure area of 3,050 - 3,080 yuan. The spot price of oil mills increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and some terminal buyers' wait - and - see attitude has loosened, with local transactions potentially increasing. However, due to the current ample supply, traders are mainly selling actively [16] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: The prices of palm oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,776 yuan/ton, 8,548 yuan/ton, and 8,796 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.83%, 0.68%, and 0.85%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,292 ringgit/ton, up 1.95%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,118 yuan/ton, 7,734 yuan/ton, and 8,160 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 56.15 cents/pound, up 2.71%. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8,190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [12]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, showing different price changes and percentage changes [5] Meal Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: The prices of bean meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3,078, 2,744, and 3,056 respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The prices of rapeseed meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2,394, 2,352, and 2,722 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 0.51%, and 0.11% [17]. - **Meal Spreads**: Information on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. is provided, along with the prices of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and their basis quotes [20] Other Information - The report provides price and spread data for various oil and meal products, including palm oil, soybean oil, bean meal, and rapeseed meal, as well as information on international soybean and rapeseed crushing profits sourced from Wind [5][7][12][17][20][28]