Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The core conclusion indicates that the bull market initiated in 2024 is not over, transitioning into its second phase, with the driving force shifting from sentiment to fundamentals [6] - Technology is identified as the main theme, with a focus on AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [6][7] - The bull market is characterized by structural features, with "small assets" outperforming "old assets," and the market is currently in the explosive phase of the bull market [6][7] Group 2: Industry and Company Analysis - The restaurant industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to stable growth, with online channels becoming increasingly important [8][9] - Different restaurant formats have varying adaptability to delivery services, with beverages and fast food showing the highest adaptability [8][9] - A balanced approach between dine-in and delivery is crucial for restaurant brands to maintain brand recognition and profitability [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the restaurant industry, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to consumer trends and optimize their cost-benefit ratios [11] - Specific recommendations include companies like Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, and Haidilao, while also suggesting attention to Meituan-W as a platform leader [11] Group 4: Company Financial Performance - Beike-W reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion RMB [15] - The adjusted net profit for Beike-W decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [15][16] - Yonyou Network's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.584 billion RMB, a 2.7% decline year-on-year, but showed a positive growth trend in Q3 [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 performance, showing a slight revenue increase but significant declines in net profit and Non-GAAP net profit compared to the previous year [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue/net profit/Non-GAAP net profit of 23.1/0.75/1.29 billion yuan, representing year-on-year changes of +2.1%/-36.1%/-27.8% [4]. - The company's revenue growth has been declining quarter by quarter throughout the year [5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 21.4%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share of the higher-margin new home business [7]. Group 2: Real Estate Segment - The second-hand housing segment saw GTV/revenue of 505.6/6.0 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year changes of +5.8%/-3.6% [5]. - The new housing segment reported GTV/revenue of 196.3/6.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of -13.8%/-14.1% [5]. - The monetization rates for second-hand and new homes were 2.53% and 3.38%, respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [5]. Group 3: Home Decoration and Rental Business - The home decoration and rental businesses generated revenues of 4.3/5.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth of +2.1%/+45.3% [6]. - The profit margin for home decoration was 32.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved procurement costs and efficiency [6]. - The rental business achieved a profit margin of 8.7%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased gross margins in the "worry-free rental" service [6]. Group 4: Cost Management - The sales/management/R&D expense ratios were 7.5%/8.1%/2.8%, showing year-on-year changes of -1.1/-0.3/+0.3 percentage points [7]. - The decrease in sales expense ratio was driven by reduced labor costs and lower marketing expenses due to operational efficiency strategies [7]. - The company continued to enhance shareholder returns, with Q3 share buybacks reaching 280 million USD, the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [7].

Group 1: Financial Data Analysis - In October 2025, M1 balance increased by 6.2% year-on-year, remaining at a relatively high level over the past three years. New loans added in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, while the incremental social financing scale was 815 billion yuan. M2 balance grew by 8.2% year-on-year, which may seem slightly low at first glance. However, considering the relationships of "past vs. present" and "surface vs. internal," the growth in credit, social financing, and M2 should not be viewed as insufficient [4]. Group 2: Energy Sector Insights - The gradual improvement of the capacity electricity price mechanism is a continuous benefit for the energy storage industry. Inner Mongolia maintains a high level of energy storage subsidies, ensuring a considerable increase in energy storage installations next year. The market currently has high expectations for domestic energy storage installations in the coming year, with a focus on monitoring the production of energy storage cells in December and January, as well as upcoming bidding and installation situations. The overall industry remains in a state of sustained prosperity [5]. Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Trends - The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) has increased recently, with the ILI percentage reported at 4.6% for the 44th week of 2025, higher than the previous week's 4.1% and above the levels of 3.1% and 3.3% in 2022 and 2024, respectively, but lower than the 5.9% in 2023. This trend suggests a need to pay attention to sectors related to influenza vaccines, virus testing, and pharmaceuticals [6]. Group 4: Company Performance Reviews - Beike (2423.HK) reported a revenue decline in Q3 2025, achieving revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but net profit decreased by 36.1% [6]. - Tencent Music (TME.N) achieved total revenue of 8.46 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, driven by better-than-expected growth in non-subscription business revenue. Adjusted net profit reached 2.405 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year [6]. - Hong Teng Precision (6088.HK) reported a revenue of 1.324 billion USD in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with net profit rising by 9%. The company maintains a net profit forecast of 171 million USD for 2025, driven by significant progress in the high-speed interconnection field [7].

Market Overview - On November 13, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 1% at one point, although the decline narrowed by the time of reporting [1] - Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index rising over 1% [1] Key Stock Movements - Disney's stock fell over 8% after the company reported Q4 FY2025 earnings that exceeded profit expectations but slightly missed revenue forecasts. Q3 revenue was $22.46 billion, below the expected $22.75 billion, while net profit was $1.44 billion, up from $564 million year-over-year [3][4] - Nvidia's stock dropped over 3% following news that Michael Burry's Scion fund disclosed short positions against Nvidia and Palantir [5][6] - Cisco's stock rose over 4% after reporting Q1 revenue of $14.88 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.00, exceeding Wall Street expectations. Cisco raised its full-year revenue guidance to $60.2 billion to $61 billion [7] - Chinese solar company Canadian Solar saw its stock rise over 6% after reporting Q3 2025 revenue of $1.5 billion, surpassing market expectations, with Q4 revenue projected between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion [8][9] - Alibaba's stock increased over 2% as the company secretly launched the "Qianwen" project, an AI assistant app aimed at competing with ChatGPT [10] - Beike's stock rose over 2% after reporting a total transaction volume (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan and a net income increase of 2.1% year-over-year to 23.1 billion yuan [11]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 1% at one point, but the decline narrowed by the time of reporting [1] - Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index rising over 1% [1] Key Company Performances - **Disney**: The company saw its stock drop over 8% despite reporting Q3 revenue of $22.46 billion, which was below analyst expectations of $22.75 billion. However, net profit increased to $1.44 billion, or $0.73 per share, up from $564 million ($0.25 per share) year-over-year. Adjusted EPS was $1.11, exceeding the market expectation of $1.05 [3][4] - **NVIDIA**: The stock fell over 3% following news that Michael Burry's Scion fund disclosed short positions against NVIDIA and Palantir [5][6] - **Cisco**: The company reported Q1 revenue of $14.88 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.00, up 10% and exceeding Wall Street expectations. Cisco raised its full-year revenue guidance to $60.2 billion to $61 billion [7] - **Canadian Solar (CSIQ)**: The stock rose over 6% after reporting Q3 revenue of $1.5 billion, surpassing market expectations. Q4 revenue is projected to be between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion [8][9] - **Alibaba**: The stock increased over 2% as the company secretly launched the "Qianwen" project, an AI assistant app aimed at competing with ChatGPT [10] - **Beike (BEKE)**: The company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan for Q3, with net revenue growing 2.1% year-over-year to 23.1 billion yuan [11]

Core Insights - The domestic real estate market is undergoing a silent yet profound transformation, shifting focus from scale expansion to quality improvement and model innovation as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][9] - Two notable phenomena are emerging: banks are accelerating the disposal of real estate assets, and platforms like Hand-in-Hand Real Estate Network are enhancing second-hand property transaction efficiency through direct connections and technology [1][9] Group 1: Bank Asset Disposal - Banks are increasingly selling properties in bulk to optimize their balance sheets and improve capital turnover, driven by rising default rates among real estate companies and individual loans [3][4] - This trend reflects a gradual release of financial risks in the real estate sector, aligning with regulatory requirements and a market shift from high leverage to a focus on credit stability and quality [3][4] - The direct sale of properties by banks, while offering price advantages, shows varied transaction rates, indicating a market preference for property location, quality, and transaction security over mere low prices [3][4] Group 2: Efficiency Revolution in Second-Hand Market - Hand-in-Hand Real Estate Network is pioneering a "direct connection" model that breaks down information asymmetry and streamlines the transaction process, enhancing transparency and reducing costs [4][6] - The platform's approach allows for real-time tracking of transactions, transforming the role of intermediaries from information monopolizers to service enablers, which aligns with banks' goals of clear property rights and risk control [4][7] - The integration of new media with physical services, such as live streaming and short videos, creates a closed-loop from online engagement to offline transactions, appealing to a new generation of homebuyers [6][11] Group 3: Future Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the transition of real estate from incremental development to high-quality development, with a focus on safety, comfort, and sustainability [9] - Both the bulk selling by banks and the rapid transactions facilitated by Hand-in-Hand Real Estate Network represent two practices aimed at enhancing asset liquidity and transaction credibility through information symmetry and process optimization [9] - The real estate industry is moving from a resource-driven model to a service-driven one, transitioning from opaque operations to transparent transactions, with a focus on user-centric platforms that leverage technology and service [9][11]

Core Insights - The real estate service sector experienced a 0.48% increase on November 13, with Shijian leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78% [1] Stock Performance - Shijian (002285) closed at 2.51, up 2.03%, with a trading volume of 523,400 shares and a turnover of 130 million yuan [1] - Zhongtian Service (002188) closed at 6.63, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 51,300 shares and a turnover of 33.67 million yuan [1] - Huangting International (000056) closed at 2.48, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 458,300 shares and a turnover of 112 million yuan [1] - ST Mingcheng (600136) closed at 1.92, up 1.05%, with a trading volume of 222,500 shares and a turnover of 42.34 million yuan [1] - Wo Ai Wo Jia (000560) closed at 2.94, up 0.68%, with a trading volume of 1,177,400 shares and a turnover of 346 million yuan [1] - Zhujiang Co. (600684) closed at 4.71, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 153,400 shares and a turnover of 72.04 million yuan [1] - Ningbo Fuda (600724) closed at 5.67, up 0.53%, with a trading volume of 81,800 shares and a turnover of 46.18 million yuan [1] - China Merchants Jiyu (001914) closed at 11.94, up 0.42%, with a trading volume of 131,000 shares and a turnover of 155 million yuan [1] - Nandu Property (603506) closed at 12.96, up 0.23%, with a trading volume of 24,500 shares and a turnover of 3.16 million yuan [1] - Xinda Zheng (002968) closed at 12.59, down 0.55%, with a trading volume of 53,000 shares and a turnover of 66.50 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The real estate service sector saw a net outflow of 13.73 million yuan from institutional investors and 7.09 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 20.82 million yuan [2] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows varying trends, with some stocks experiencing significant net inflows from retail investors despite overall outflows from institutional and speculative funds [3]

Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI, VR, and AR technologies to enhance customer decision-making and operational efficiency in the real estate sector [1][2] - Significant investments in R&D have been made, with a total of 18.65 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year increase in Q3 [1] - The company has implemented AI-driven solutions across its core business areas, particularly in rental services, leading to substantial efficiency gains [1][6] R&D Investment - Since its IPO in 2020, the company has invested over 14 billion RMB in R&D, with continuous positive growth in R&D spending for eight consecutive quarters from Q4 2023 to Q3 2025 [2] - The focus on technology innovation stems from a deep understanding of the industry, emphasizing trust in residential services and the enhancement of service providers' capabilities through AI [2] Rental Business Innovations - The rental business has achieved full-process intelligent operations, with AI optimizing various stages such as pricing, negotiation, and auditing, resulting in a 13% increase in efficiency and a 96% reduction in audit time [1][6] - The company has introduced the "Lai Ke" assistant for agents, which has reached 414,000 agents, improving customer engagement and conversion rates [4] Home Decoration Strategy - In the home decoration sector, the company has launched a comprehensive service strategy focusing on quality products, services, and technology, with a 50% higher customer conversion rate in newly established showrooms compared to traditional stores [5] - The company has developed a digital platform, HomeSaaS, and various tech applications to enhance the home decoration process [5] Market Positioning - The company is positioning itself in a buyer's market by utilizing data-driven models to analyze market dynamics and customer preferences, aiming to provide tailored housing solutions [6] - The rental market in China is projected to grow from approximately 1.7 trillion RMB to 1.8 trillion RMB by 2026, indicating ongoing market expansion [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai remains optimistic about Beike-W (02423, BEKE.US) due to its robust development in the "one body" business model and the improvement in industry penetration, as well as the resilience of its "three wings" business in navigating the post-real estate cycle [1] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 5.76 billion, 7.68 billion, and 9.67 billion yuan over the next three years, respectively [1] - A target price of 60.0 HKD / 22.8 USD is set for 2026, based on a 16x PE ratio and the company's broad cash holdings [1] Share Buyback and Cash Reserves - The company has increased its share buyback efforts, spending approximately 280 million USD in Q3 2025, which is a 38.3% year-on-year increase [1] - Since September 2022, the total amount spent on share buybacks has reached about 2.3 billion USD, with the repurchased shares accounting for approximately 11.5% of the total [1] - The company's broad cash balance remains solid at around 70 billion yuan, indicating strong cash reserves [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai expresses a positive outlook on Beike-W (02423, BEKE.US) due to its robust development in the "one body" business model and the increase in industry penetration, as well as the resilience of its "three wings" business in navigating the post-real estate cycle [1] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 5.76 billion, 7.68 billion, and 9.67 billion yuan over the next three years, respectively [1] - A target price of 60.0 HKD / 22.8 USD is set for 2026, based on a 16x PE ratio and the company's broad cash holdings [1] Share Buyback and Cash Reserves - In Q3 2025, the company increased its share buyback efforts, spending approximately 280 million USD, which is a 38.3% year-on-year increase [1] - Since September 2022, the total amount spent on share buybacks has reached about 2.3 billion USD, with the repurchased shares accounting for approximately 11.5% of the total [1] - The company's broad cash balance remains solid at around 70 billion yuan, indicating strong cash reserves [1]