1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Morning Meeting View Highlights of the Research Institute on July 30, 2025, covering macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products [2] Group 2: Macro - Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise due to market waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision, better - than - expected economic data, and good results of US trade negotiations. However, the June job - vacancy data was worse than expected, indicating some weakness in the US labor market, and the good performance of US Treasury auctions led to a decline in Treasury yields. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks may extend the 90 - day tariff truce, which is beneficial to domestic risk appetite [2] - For assets, stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate and correct in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy chemicals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Group 3: Stocks - Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, steel, and communication equipment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade talks and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - The precious - metals market continued to fluctuate narrowly. With the continuous conclusion of trade agreements, market risk appetite recovered, and precious metals were under pressure. The Sino - US negotiation results met market expectations. The market expects the Fed to keep the interest - rate range at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged this week and maintains the expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Precious metals may fluctuate in the short term, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, but the trading volume remained low. The market sentiment improved due to anti - involution policies and possible production restrictions in the north. The real demand has not improved significantly, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week, and the supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week. The coke price increase was implemented for the fourth time, and the cost support was strong. The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future [5][6] Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. The growth space of iron - ore demand is limited, and if production - restriction policies are implemented from August to September, iron - water production may decline. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory on a rigid - demand basis. The global iron - ore shipping volume increased by 91 tons week - on - week, but the arrival volume decreased by 130.7 tons. The port inventory increased slightly. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. The port manganese - ore quotation increased. The production attitude of Inner Mongolia factories is positive. The national utilization rate of silicon - manganese production capacity increased by 1.05% to 41.58%, and the daily output increased by 520 tons; the national utilization rate of silicon - iron production capacity increased by 0.88% to 33.33%, and the daily output increased by 330 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be strong in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The main soda - ash contract was strong. The supply decreased week - on - week, but there is still an oversupply situation. The downstream demand is weak, and the profit decreased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the loose supply - demand pattern. In the short term, the price center is rising due to policy trading, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8] Glass - The main glass contract was strong. The daily melting volume increased slightly, and the supply pressure increased due to the off - season. The terminal real - estate industry is weak, and the demand has not improved. The profit increased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy and relevant guidelines support the short - term price, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8][9] Group 6: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements. The short - term growth - stabilization plan is beneficial to copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, showing a slight recovery. Comex copper inventories continue to accumulate, reaching over 250,000 short tons, the highest level in recent years [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with domestic social inventories and LME inventories increasing. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document is limited. The expected increase in aluminum prices is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the sentiment to cool down instead of shorting for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled - aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season, and the manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined utilization rate of production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi continued to rise to 55.51%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply of tin ore tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [11] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium - carbonate contract 09 fell 5.9% on Tuesday, with the latest settlement price at 70,300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced positions by 79,000 lots, with a total position of 720,000 lots. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate both decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of Australian lithium ore decreased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities after the price stabilizes [12][13] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial - silicon contract 09 rose 2.35% on Tuesday, with the weighted contract increasing positions by 10,000 lots to 530,000 lots. The spot price of East - China oxygen - containing 553 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 450 yuan/ton. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,400 tons. It is advisable to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [13] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract 09 settled at 50,250 yuan/ton on Tuesday, a significant increase of 3.76%. The weighted contract increased positions by 26,000 lots to 360,000 lots. The SMM forecasts that the polysilicon output in July will be about 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10%. There are many disturbances in the news, and it is risky to short directly [14] Group 7: Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The US may impose economic sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine, which intensifies the market's concern about supply tightness. The market is closely watching the August 1 tariff deadline and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate in the near future [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract stabilized after a downward resonance. The inventory decreased slightly, the trading volume was low, and the overall demand was average. The basis was stable, and the social inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The market believes that this year's demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is necessary to focus on the inventory - reduction situation in the later stage. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil price, but the upside space is limited [15] PX - The tight supply of PX continued. The external price dropped to $851, and the price difference with naphtha remained at $293. The PTA processing fee dropped to a new low in the past six months, which may lead to production cuts of leading devices. There is a risk of downstream negative feedback. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space is limited [15] PTA - The basis remained at around - 5. The port - inventory accumulation slowed down slightly. After the downstream sales soared last week, the downstream inventory decreased significantly, but the profit did not increase substantially. In the later stage, the downstream may face inventory - accumulation pressure and production cuts. The PTA processing fee is low, and the leading devices are reducing production. There is bottom support, and it is necessary to wait for the change in the August stocking rhythm [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol port inventory decreased slightly to 521,000 tons, but the price declined due to sector resonance, especially for coal - based ethylene glycol. There is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance devices. The downstream start - up rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have no significant increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [17] Short - Fiber - Crude - oil prices fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the start - up rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, and more inventory reduction needs to wait for the peak - season stocking in August. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the polyester end and may be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [17] Methanol - The MA2509 contract closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 29, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The position decreased by 40,700 lots to 576,000 lots. The Taicang price fluctuated slightly, and the basis was stable. The methanol price in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly. The coal - price increase supports the methanol price, but the upward movement is restricted by device restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profit. Methanol prices are expected to return to the oscillation range. It is advisable for conservative investors to wait and see before the Politburo meeting [18] PP - The PP market price partially declined, and the mainstream price of East - China drawn wire was 7100 - 7180 yuan/ton. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 30,000 tons to 780,000 tons on July 29. Affected by multiple policies, there is still some price support, but the supply is loose, the downstream demand is weakened by high prices, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. PP prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19] LLDPE - The polyethylene market price was adjusted, and the standard - product transaction price was 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. The prices in North, East, and South China decreased by 20, 30, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The futures contract of polyethylene corrected, and the short - term fluctuation may be affected by policies. Before the Politburo meeting, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for a direction. In the long term, the oversupply pattern has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand weakens during the price increase, and the import profit increases significantly. The fundamentals may deteriorate more than expected. Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term [19] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1008.25, down 3.25 or 0.32% (settlement price 1009.50). Favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas puts pressure on soybean prices, while soybean oil provides some support. As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - and - excellent rate was 70%, better than the market expectation of 67% [20][21] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the sentiment of the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may lead to a short - selling market at the end of the crop - growing season in late August, which will drag down the domestic soybean - meal market. Domestic oil mills have a high and stable start - up rate, and the soybean - meal inventory is gradually accumulating, with a weak basis. The national full - sample oil - mill start - up rate was 64.74% on July 29, up 0.51% from the previous day. It is worth noting that the spot buying at low prices has increased in some areas, and the basis trading volume from May to July next year has increased [21] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil has a large pressure to realize profits at a high level, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has shrunk at a low level, and soybean oil has made up for the increase, but there is no fundamental support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, the terminal consumption is weak, the oil - mill crushing volume has decreased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the basis quotations in various regions continue to be at the bottom [21] Palm Oil - The strong international crude - oil price, the weakening ringgit, and the rise of US soybean oil may boost the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude - palm - oil futures. The palm - oil market is bullish without signs of correction, but the upward resistance has increased significantly. With the increase of domestic palm - oil imports, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The production of Malaysian palm oil is progressing smoothly, the export has declined month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. From July 1 - 25, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 8.53% month - on - month [22]

美国商务部长卢特尼克的最新表态显示，美欧贸易协议谈判尚未结束，在欧美达成初步的框架协议后， 在一些关键领域仍需大量协商。数字服务税、钢铝贸易等多个议题仍待解决。 卢特尼克在接受媒体采访时直言不讳地表示："还有很多讨价还价的工作要做。" 他预计，将继续与欧 盟贸易官员保持沟通，探讨数字服务税等问题。卢特尼克说： "我预计会继续与欧盟委员会的贸易官员沟通吗？是的，他们今天早上打电话给我，讨论还有什么其他 事情要谈，比如数字服务、税收以及针对我们（美国）科技公司的攻击——这些都会摆到桌面上来讨 论。" 此外，卢特尼克表示，欧盟方面希望将钢铁和铝纳入讨论范围。这些产品目前不在协议覆盖范围内。 本周二，另一媒体称，一位欧盟官员透露，欧盟正在推动建立针对出口金属产品的配额制度，从而降低 美国对特定进口特定数量欧盟金属产品的关税。目前欧盟金属出口面临50%的高关税。 制药与汽车产业是协议关键 卢特尼克在采访中指出，制药和汽车产业是与欧盟达成贸易协议的关键领域。"欧洲人之所以达成协 议，关键在于汽车和制药，"他解释道。 关于制药行业，卢特尼克表示，特朗普政府将在未来两周公布制药方面的关税政策，对非美国生产的药 品征收"巨额" ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price declined slightly due to the cooling of market sentiment. The spot - end downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the market was in a state of expected inventory accumulation during the off - season. Considering potential factory复产, short - term prices are under pressure. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [2]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy season, and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts supports a short - term price rebound. However, the subsequent high - capacity operation pattern is difficult to change, and the market remains slightly oversupplied. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price followed the decline of the aluminum price. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macroscopically, the market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut in the US, but the timing is uncertain. Domestically, the "anti - involution" policy may affect the copper smelting capacity. Fundamentally, copper is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The short - term price is boosted by positive macro - sentiment, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77000 - 80000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate of the global and domestic zinc mines in May and June fell short of expectations. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The zinc price has rebounded due to positive macro - policies, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. The tin price has fallen from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the supply of nickel ore has become relatively loose. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120000 - 128000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuated weakly. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable. The supply of stainless steel is under pressure, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price fluctuated sharply. The supply side has increased uncertainties, mainly around mine - related issues in Qinghai and Jiangxi. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable but not significantly boosted. The overall inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20660 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1665 yuan/ton, up 12.4 yuan/ton from the previous value [2]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina output was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79075 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference was 960 yuan/ton, up 14.17% from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22650 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1711 yuan/ton, down 123.74 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc output was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 268800 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 65.00 US dollars/ton, down 55.17% from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous value; the SMM refined tin output was 13810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous value [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 123200 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value; the 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price was 912 yuan/nickel point, up 0.22% from the previous value [13]. Supply and Inventory - The output of Chinese refined nickel products was 31800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12850 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value [15]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73900 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous value; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 805 US dollars/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the demand was 93815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - **Important Information**: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - **Important Information**: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - **Important Information**: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - **Important Information**: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - **Important Information**: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - **Important Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has been forced to accept a 15% tariff agreement with the United States, highlighting its regret for not forming a united front with China to counteract U.S. trade policies [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - On July 27, U.S. President Trump announced that the EU would increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1]. - The EU accepted a 15% "base" tariff, which includes key sectors like the automotive industry, while steel will be subject to a quota system [2][3]. - The EU's initial plan aimed to reduce a €200 billion trade deficit through increased purchases of liquefied natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, but was undermined by Trump's rapid actions [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Strategic Missteps - The EU's response to Trump's trade aggression began with a strategic misstep on April 10, when it chose to suspend retaliatory tariffs and accept negotiations under pressure [2][4]. - Internal divisions among EU member states weakened its negotiating position, with some countries advocating for a stronger response while others preferred a more cautious approach [3][4]. - The EU's reliance on U.S. security guarantees, particularly among Eastern and Northern member states, contributed to its reluctance to engage in a trade confrontation [4]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The EU's experience in this trade conflict underscores the importance of unity and decisive strategy in the face of trade bullying, as a lack of these elements led to unfavorable outcomes [5]. - Analysts suggest that the EU's failure to act decisively against U.S. tariffs reflects a broader lesson about the risks of not presenting a united front in international trade disputes [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high overseas, and the pattern of stronger domestic prices may continue. With the domestic downstream in the off - season and slower inventory depletion, and continuously improving macro - expectations, the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices also rose and then fell, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. In the industrial aspect, it is the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has declined, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Against the backdrop of favorable domestic and overseas macro - conditions and high market risk appetite, the macro - environment strongly supports non - ferrous metals. With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will also show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Overseas: Gold prices continued to fall in the second half of the week, and silver and copper may have also been significantly affected and declined. - Domestic: The domestic market atmosphere was good last week, with commodities generally rising. In the first half of the week, the non - ferrous metal sector rose across the board, but in the second half, the long - short game intensified, the market showed obvious differentiation, and the non - ferrous metal sector showed a downward trend with reduced positions [7]. 3.2 Copper - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. SHFE copper once touched the 80,000 RMB mark, and LME copper once approached the 10,000 US - dollar mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions, and the futures prices may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2]. - **Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end, and the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [21]. - **Slower Depletion of Electrolytic Copper Inventory**: The depletion of domestic electrolytic copper inventory has slowed down, and the inventory is low in China and high overseas [2]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is provided in the report, but no specific analysis is given [29]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Quantity and Price Trends**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell last week, and the main contract price of SHFE aluminum once touched the 21,000 RMB mark. There was a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions after the price approached 21,000 RMB [3]. - **Upstream Industrial Chain**: Information on the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina is provided, but no specific analysis is given [39]. - **Accumulation of Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, and the overseas inventory is also shown in the report [3]. - **Downstream Initial Stage**: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods and the processing fees and inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are provided, but no specific analysis is given [47]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: In the short term, focus on the long - short game at the 79,000 RMB mark of SHFE copper. In the third quarter, with reduced uncertainty in US trade policies and continuously rising global macro - expectations, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. - Aluminum: With positive macro - factors and negative industrial factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices will show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [54].

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that gold prices remain within a fluctuating range while silver prices have seen further increases [2][3] - The report highlights the impact of rumors regarding reduced tariffs between the US and EU, which has led to decreased safe-haven demand for precious metals [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts within the year, with a 61.9% probability for a cut in September [2] Precious Metals - Gold price for the week was $3343.50 per ounce, down $11.60 from July 18, reflecting a decrease of 0.35% [2] - Silver price for the week was $38.74 per ounce, up $0.46 from July 18, reflecting an increase of 1.22% [2] - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.5, below expectations of 52.7 [2] - US durable goods orders for June showed a preliminary value of -9.3%, better than the expected -10.7% [2] Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9839 per ton, up $119 from July 18, an increase of 1.22% [5] - SHFE copper closed at 79170 yuan per ton, up 760 yuan from July 18, an increase of 0.97% [5] - Domestic aluminum price was 20800 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from July 18 [6] - LME aluminum inventory was 450825 tons, up 20125 tons from July 18 [6] Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 271360 yuan per ton, up 5460 yuan from July 18, an increase of 2.05% [8] - Antimony ingot price remained stable at 184500 yuan per ton, with weak demand affecting transactions [10] Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the ongoing rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [11] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" despite short-term demand weakness, with expectations of tightening supply-demand dynamics in the medium to long term [12] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating, anticipating similar supply-demand conditions [13] - The tin industry is rated "recommended" due to supply tightness potentially supporting prices [13] - The antimony industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of long-term supply tightness supporting prices [13] Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shanjin International [14] - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, and Cangge Mining [14] - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [14] - Antimony industry recommendations include Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous [14] - Tin industry recommendations include Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mainstream transaction price of bauxite in Guinea decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in bauxite shipments, which supports the ore price. However, market rumors of the resumption of a large mine in Guinea may reverse the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter, so the upward range of the ore price is expected to be limited [3][10]. - The operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.1 million tons week - on - week to 94.95 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 3.207 million tons. With the gradual resumption of production of reduced - capacity and the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of alumina is gradually recovering. Bullish sentiment has cooled, and alumina may face an adjustment [3][14]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.214 million tons. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, and the technical renovation project of Baise Yinhai is gradually resuming production. The downstream demand of aluminum is weakening, with the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreasing by 0.1% to 58.8%. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased [3]. - In the case of recycled cast aluminum alloy, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises will continue the downward trend [3]. - The short - term risk of aluminum prices is still high, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to market changes. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and the China - US London talks are about to take place, and attention should be paid to the meeting results and negotiation outcomes [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Strategy Suggestions - Alumina: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels when the price rebounds [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the price is temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan have restricted bauxite mining activities, and some mines have suspended production. Frequent rainfall in major domestic producing areas has also restricted ore mining [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.4 per dry ton to $72.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. The expected tightening of spot supply supports the upward movement of the ore price, but the expected structural shortage of imported ore supply in the third quarter may be reversed, so the upward range of the ore price is limited [3][10]. 3.3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 113.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.01%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,257 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 37.9 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory was 3.207 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons [14]. - Newly invested capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions is gradually contributing to alumina production. A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong has expanded and upgraded its capacity, and it is expected to reach full production this week. Although a red mud reservoir in a south - western alumina enterprise has a landslide risk due to heavy rain, the current production has not been affected [14]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [23]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily. Some remaining capacity in Guizhou Anshun is being resumed, the replacement capacity of Yunlv Yixin is being put into production, contributing a net increase of 35,000 tons of capacity, and the 120,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project will be gradually powered on and resumed production in the third quarter [3][23]. 3.5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 53.1%. Downstream enterprises are gradually entering the high - temperature holiday, with insufficient new orders. High scrap aluminum prices and a sharp increase in industrial silicon prices have led to great loss pressure on enterprises, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend. However, recent concentrated shipments from delivery brand enterprises to spot - futures traders support the operating rate to remain relatively high in the off - season [34]. 3.6. Downstream开工率 - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained stable at 50.5% week - on - week. In the industrial profile segment, the operating rate remained unchanged. In the building profile segment, affected by the downturn in the real estate industry and seasonal factors, sample enterprises reported average existing orders and weak new orders, and the operating rate remained unchanged [43]. - Aluminum plates and strips: The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 63.2% week - on - week. With high aluminum prices, downstream customers are waiting and watching, and the finished product inventory of each aluminum plate and strip enterprise is high. Enterprises reported that it is the off - season for exports, and there is little hope for the recovery of export orders. In addition, aluminum plate and strip enterprises in various regions have not reduced production due to high - temperature power rationing [43]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 61.6%. Although the operating rate of some enterprises has improved marginally due to order scheduling and the delivery of UHV and power transmission and transformation orders, some enterprises' strategy of reducing raw material and finished product inventories has led to a weakening of the overall operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the matching of power grid orders in August can reopen the industry's concentrated delivery cycle [46]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 54% week - on - week. Although the task of aluminum - water alloying and the strategy of aluminum rod conversion continue to provide marginal support, most sample enterprises are restricted by weak terminal demand, insufficient new orders, thin profit margins, and high - temperature holidays, and the operating rate is weakly stable [46].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]