（原标题：高盛分析师警告：美国经济可能重新加速 小心美联储货币政策转向） 智通财经APP获悉，9月28日，高盛分析师 Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli 和 Rikin Shah 在最新报告中称，美 国经济面临重新加速的可能性正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融 环境等多重利好因素基础之上。 报告称，这一经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策路径产生重要影响，特别是在美联储选出新主席 人选的背景下。高盛指出，关键问题在于美联储是否会在经济健康运行时仍将利率降至中性水平以下， 以及是否能够在特朗普任期内实施加息政策。 Part.01 多重顺风助推经济 "重新加速" 高盛的分析显示，美国经济在多项关键指标上展现出强劲表现。 据高盛称,其美国宏观经济意外指数 (US MAP surprise index) 近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数也令 人鼓舞。该行全球投资研究部 (GIR) 预计，美国第三季度 GDP 环比年化增长率将达到 2.6%的健康水 平。 风险资产的良好表现、美联储未来的降息预期以及美元走弱，共同营造了宽松的金融环境。 财政与投资 报告列举了推动这一风险的关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the gradual internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) since the 2015 exchange rate reform, emphasizing that the current level of RMB internationalization does not match China's economic and trade scale. It identifies four new trends in the international monetary system and proposes four main lines of action to accelerate RMB internationalization [2][48]. Group 1: New Trends in the International Monetary System - The article identifies four new trends: cracks in the credibility of the US dollar, the rise of Chinese manufacturing, the restructuring of global trade and monetary systems, and the emergence of digital and tokenized financial ecosystems [3][4][26]. - The credibility of the US dollar is weakening due to persistent fiscal deficits and high inflation, as well as the weaponization of its reserve currency status [9][10]. - Chinese manufacturing has maintained a leading position globally, with a significant share of global output and exports, and is moving up the value chain [16][17]. - The restructuring of global trade relationships is evident as the US imposes tariffs, leading to a decrease in its role as the final consumer and an increase in trade among non-US countries [27][28]. Group 2: Four Main Lines to Promote RMB Internationalization - The article suggests four main lines to promote RMB internationalization: expanding the supply of RMB-denominated safe assets, enhancing the settlement and pricing functions of RMB in commodity trade, coordinating onshore and offshore RMB markets, and utilizing digital RMB and tokenized RMB assets [5][48]. - Expanding the supply of RMB safe assets is crucial, as foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds are currently below 6%, and there is a need for more offshore RMB sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt [50][51]. - Enhancing the settlement and pricing functions of RMB in key commodities, such as lithium and LNG, is essential to increase the share of RMB in trade settlements [54][55]. - Coordinating onshore and offshore RMB markets can improve market stability and liquidity, while expanding the application scenarios for digital RMB can enhance its usage in cross-border transactions [6][63][71]. Group 3: Digital and Tokenized Financial Ecosystem - The rise of digital currencies, particularly central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), is reshaping the financial landscape, providing a bridge between traditional fiat currencies and digital assets [4][43]. - The digital RMB has seen significant adoption, with over 1.8 billion wallets opened and transactions exceeding 7.3 trillion RMB, indicating a growing acceptance of digital currencies [43][72]. - Tokenization of traditional financial assets is on the rise, with initiatives to issue tokenized government bonds and other assets, creating a comprehensive digital financial ecosystem [46][72].

Our next guest says we have arrived at an important cyclical turning point and he sees the market broadening though perhaps not booming from here. Joining us now Michael Canowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler. Good to see you.Welcome. Um so broadening in what respect. I mean are we going to finally see uh sort of the earnings growth catch up from you know the average stock or is it just going to be kind of a rotation of flows.How do you see this playing out. I I think it's more about a a bre ...

9月28日，高盛分析师 Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli 和 Rikin Shah 在最新报告中称，美国经济面临重新加速 的可能性正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素 基础之上。 02 财政与投资 报告称，这一经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策路径产生重要影响，特别是在美联储选出新主席 人选的背景下。高盛指出，关键问题在于美联储是否会在经济健康运行时仍将利率降至中性水平以下， 以及是否能够在特朗普任期内实施加息政策。 Part.01 多重顺风助推经济 "重新加速" 高盛的分析显示，美国经济在多项关键指标上展现出强劲表现。 据高盛称,其美国宏观经济意外指数 (US MAP surprise index) 近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数也令 人鼓舞。该行全球投资研究部 (GIR) 预计，美国第三季度 GDP 环比年化增长率将达到 2.6%的健康水 平。 报告列举了推动这一风险的关键因素： 01 宽松的金融条件 风险资产的良好表现、美联储未来的降息预期以及美元走弱，共同营造了宽松的金融环境。 预计明年上半年将迎来积极的财政政策脉冲，同时人工智能领域 ...

这一看涨立场呼应了当前的市场乐观情绪。得益于市场对美联储及时降息以避免经济衰退的预期，以及人工智能热潮对科技巨头的提振，全球股 市此前已攀升至历史新高。 与此同时，高盛将信贷评级从中性下调至减持，但保持对股票12个月的看涨建议。该机构认为，虽然股票估值可能超出当前水平，但这对信贷构 成约束。 宽松政策支撑看涨前景 高盛策略师团队基于美国经济韧性、支撑性估值水平以及美联储鸽派转向，预计全球股市有望在年末前延续涨势，并建议投资者对股票采取"逢跌 买入"策略。 在最新发布的报告中，策略师将美股评级在三个月期限内上调至增持，理由包括良好的盈利增长、美联储在无衰退情况下的宽松政策以及全球财 政政策放松。高盛策略师认为，在政策支持强劲的后周期经济放缓阶段，股票资产通常表现良好。 此外，该团队还维持了对股票未来12个月的看涨建议。对于信贷资产，高盛则认为，尽管短期承压，但从12个月的维度看，由于衰退风险相对较 低以及有利的供需格局，其悲观程度有所降低。 风险犹存，强调多元化配置 尽管发布了看涨的短期建议，但高盛团队也警告称，市场并非没有风险。他们指出，短期内经济增长或利率出现意外冲击的风险依然存在，投资 者需保持警惕。 高 ...

目前，市场对美联储已及时启动降息以规避衰退的乐观预期，推动全球股市创下历史新高。同时，人工 智能领域重燃的热情也为科技巨头注入了增长动力，促使众多美国机构上调对标普500指数的预期。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团策略师指出，得益于美国经济展现韧性、估值具备支撑力，以及美联储释 放鸽派转向信号，全球股市有望将涨势延续至年底。以克里斯蒂安·穆勒-格利斯曼(Christian Mueller- Glissmann)为首的策略团队，将未来三个月的股票配置评级上调至"增持"。他们表示，在政策支持力度 较强的经济周期后期放缓阶段，股票这类资产通常会有良好表现。 本月早些时候，高盛美国策略师也上调了标普500指数的目标点位，预计该指数未来三个月将再涨2%， 达到6800点。 该团队在报告中写道："强劲的盈利增长、无衰退背景下的美联储宽松政策，以及全球财政政策宽松， 将持续为股市提供支撑。鉴于衰退风险处于稳定可控水平，我们建议在年底前逢股市回调时买入。" 短期来看，他们将信贷资产配置评级从"中性"下调至"减持";但中长期(12个月维度)仍维持对股票的"看 涨"建议。尽管股票估值可能突破当前水平，但这一因素对信贷资产构成制约。 ...

格隆汇9月29日｜高盛将全球股市三个月前景的评级从"中性"上调至"增持"，理由是美国经济强劲、估 值具有支撑作用，以及美联储立场更为鸽派。高盛分析师在一份报告中表示："我们认为，良好的企业 盈利增长、美联储在不出现衰退的情况下放松货币政策以及全球财政政策宽松将继续支撑股市。" ...

来源：滚动播报 高盛将未来三个月全球股票评级从中性上调至增持。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issues a rare acceleration warning, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to re-accelerate next year rather than experience a soft landing, which could complicate monetary policy by 2026 [2] - The report highlights three key factors contributing to the upward risk for GDP: resilient labor market, fiscal stimulus, and loose financial conditions, with the GDP growth forecast for Q3 raised to an annualized rate of 2.6% [2] - If these favorable conditions materialize, GDP growth could exceed 3.5% in the first half of next year, significantly above the market consensus of 1.8% [2] Group 2 - Two scenarios are presented for trading strategies: Scenario A involves a dovish new chair with slow action on tightening, suggesting long positions in inflation-linked assets and short positions in the dollar [3] - Scenario B anticipates independent rate hikes starting in Q2 2026, recommending steepening the yield curve and investing in financial stocks while shorting long-duration bonds [3] - The report warns that volatility is likely underestimated, with the current MOVE index at 90, well below the historical average of 120, indicating potential for a sell-off in the bond market if data continues to exceed expectations [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to prepare for tools that benefit from a steepening yield curve and to closely monitor the political dynamics between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as the 2026 interest rate path may hinge on personnel decisions rather than inflation data [4]

【高盛报告：美国重新加速可能性上升，影响美联储货币政策】9月29日，高盛最新报告显示，美国重 新加速可能性上升。劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期和宽松金融环境等多重利好因素是主因。最新首次 申请失业救济人数数据向好，高盛全球投资研究部门预测，第三季度美国GDP增长率将达2.6%，为明 年上半年增长提供支撑。重新加速前景将影响美联储货币政策，尤其在新任主席人选将出炉之际。高盛 指出，2025年与2026年美联储货币政策路径或差异较大。高盛预测，今年剩余时间政策利率将逐步正常 化至3 - 3.5%，预计10月与12月各降息25个基点，避免过度限制劳动力市场。明年货币政策则高度依赖 新主席政策倾向。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 hexun.con 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 ...