Macro Strategy - The chemical sector has seen continuous catalysts on both supply and demand sides since 2024, with the current "anti-involution" trend enhancing the market outlook, driven by a favorable fundamental environment and potential valuation uplift from emerging industries [1][23] - More than half of the existing convertible bonds in the chemical sector are issued at the peak of the cycle, currently entering or about to enter the redemption period, coinciding with an upward cycle, leading to more proactive debt conversion measures [1][23] - The majority of chemical convertible bonds are small-cap, which, combined with their near-term characteristics, amplifies the asymmetry of returns [1][23] Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB central parity has shown a gradual appreciation trend, with the exchange rate expected to challenge the 7.15 range again, and the spot exchange rate may drop to the 7.10-7.15 range in August [1][25] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is supported by optimistic expectations from US-China trade negotiations and a robust domestic stock market [1][25] Anti-Involution Policy - The "anti-involution" price governance aims to address three main objectives: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction to promote supply-demand balance, and long-term price recovery, particularly in PPI [2][26] - The previous supply-side reforms led to a 10-month recovery in PPI, and under neutral assumptions, a similar recovery may take 11-12 months, potentially reaching around 1.9% by September next year [2][26] Industry Rotation - The market is expected to remain optimistic in the third quarter, with a focus on sectors that align with upcoming policies and key events, particularly those benefiting from the "anti-involution" strategy [3][5] - Suggested sectors for investment include those with potential short-term demand improvements, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors with recent catalysts [5][3] Company-Specific Insights - Xidi Microelectronics is positioned as a leading player in the analog chip sector, with a projected revenue growth of 32.10% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by significant contributions from its audio coil motor driver chip product line [11][12] - Minshida reported a 27.91% year-on-year revenue increase in its 2025 mid-year report, with expectations for continued growth in the transformer market driven by demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and wind power [13] - Gaomei's second-quarter performance is expected to turn profitable due to supply-side optimization driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising to 1.1 yuan per piece [14][15]

实际影响解读：1）受管主体方面：此管理办法针对向中国境内免税市场供应免税烟草制品和在中国境 内免税市场从事免税烟草制品批发零售业务两种场景，即为免税市场烟草制品中的零售和批发两种场 景，即免税商和烟草制品批发商两类经营主体。2）管理品类方面：覆盖卷烟、雪茄烟、烟丝等烟草制 品的日常经营管理、追溯管理和监督检查，且明确规定加热卷烟及电子烟等新兴烟草制品不得在境内免 税市场销售。3）经营管理要求：按照国营贸易方式对免税烟草制品进出口进行统一管理。由零售企业 提出采购需求，由批发企业向供货企业采购后，将免税烟草制品进出口至境内免税市场。每年销售计划 由主管部门向批发企业下达。并且明确规定了零售、批发、供货企业的条件。 卷烟进出口业务或将进一步发展：公告共识的落实取决于1）法规草案生效，中烟国际成为中国境内免 税市场唯一批发企业；2）本公司遵循适用法律法规。若法规生效，可能带来公司卷烟进出口业务进一 步发展。 过去5 年卷烟进出口毛利率从4.8%提升至17.6%，2024 年卷烟出口业务毛利额占总毛利额20%。 机构：东吴证券 研究员：吴劲草/石旖瑄/王琳婧 投资要点 公告概要：国家烟草专卖局7 月25 日发布《境内 ...

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：訾猛/刘佳昆/李美仪 本报告导读： 据国家烟草专卖局近期文件，中烟国际为具备烟草进出口国营贸易资格的唯一企业，经公司沟通，双方 已就保持中烟香港独家经营中国境内免税卷烟出口业务达成共识。 投资要点： 投资建议：公 司公告回应上级部门相关管理办法，经积极沟通境内卷烟出口免税业务有望仍由中烟香 港经营，暂无实质变化，维持2025-2027 年EPS 预测值1.40、1.58、1.75 港元，维持增持评级。 公司发布公告回应上级单位有关文件。2025 年7 月25 日国家烟草专卖局发布《境内免税市场烟草制品 管理办法（征求意见稿）》，其中提到，根据法规草案及中国现行法律法规，具备烟草进出口国营贸易 资格的唯一企业为中国烟草国际有限公司（中烟国际）。此前根据中烟香港招股书及年报，中烟国际是 中国唯一具备进口烟叶类产品资格的实体，中烟香港从事烟叶进口时需先销售给中烟国际（加价比例 6%、小部分3%），再由中烟国际销售给烟叶公司，因此这并非中烟国际首次出现相关业务的"唯一 性"表述。 征求意见稿旨在强化免税市场监管。根据征求意见稿，当前境内免税市场烟草制品经营仍存在诸多问 题，国家烟草专卖局按 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][17]. Core Views - The report indicates that China Tobacco Hong Kong has reached a consensus with the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration to maintain its exclusive operation of duty-free cigarette exports within China, suggesting limited impact from recent policy changes [2][10]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with total revenue projected to increase from HKD 11.836 billion in 2023 to HKD 16.690 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [4][11]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from HKD 599 million in 2023 to HKD 1.208 billion in 2027, with a notable increase of 59.7% in 2023 and a steady growth trajectory thereafter [4][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: HKD 11,836 million - 2024: HKD 13,074 million (+10.5%) - 2025: HKD 14,378 million (+10.0%) - 2026: HKD 15,545 million (+8.1%) - 2027: HKD 16,690 million (+7.4%) [4]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023: HKD 599 million - 2024: HKD 854 million (+42.6%) - 2025: HKD 969 million (+13.5%) - 2026: HKD 1,092 million (+12.7%) - 2027: HKD 1,208 million (+10.6%) [4]. - The report maintains EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at HKD 1.40, HKD 1.58, and HKD 1.75 respectively [10]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of HKD 22,583 million and a total share count of 692 million [6][7]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of HKD 13.82 to HKD 37.30 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the release of the draft management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products, indicating a regulatory shift aimed at improving market order and protecting tax revenues [8] - The company is positioned as the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a significant portion of revenue expected from the domestic duty-free market [8] - The report anticipates a steady growth in revenue and profit, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively [1][8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections (in million HKD) are as follows: 2023A: 11,836, 2024A: 13,074, 2025E: 13,432, 2026E: 14,656, 2027E: 15,718, with year-on-year growth rates of 42.19%, 10.46%, 2.74%, 9.11%, and 7.25% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS forecasts are: 2023A: 0.87, 2024A: 1.23, 2025E: 1.26, 2026E: 1.46, 2027E: 1.63, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37.72, 26.45, 25.95, 22.32, and 20.07 [1] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 11.00% by 2027 [9] Market Context - The report discusses the regulatory environment affecting the duty-free tobacco market, emphasizing the need for compliance with new management measures to enhance operational integrity [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the consolidation of resources within the international tobacco supply chain, which may lead to increased market share and profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a stable growth outlook for its main business [8] - The newly proposed management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products are expected to enhance regulatory oversight and could lead to further development of the company's cigarette import and export business [8] - The company's revenue from domestic duty-free cigarette business is projected to contribute 10% in 2024, indicating a significant market opportunity [8] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 22, and 20 [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 11,836 million in 2023 to HKD 15,718 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.25% [1] - The net profit is expected to increase from HKD 598.77 million in 2023 to HKD 1,125.43 million in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 0.87 in 2023 to HKD 1.63 in 2027, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 22,583.35 million [5] - The price-to-book ratio is reported at 7.51, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its book value [5] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.53%, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [6]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - New China Life Insurance (01336) rose over 5%, reaching a historical high, while China Life (2628.HK) increased by 4.4%, AIA (1299.HK) by 3.5%, and China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) by nearly 2% following the release of the 2Q25 predetermined interest rate of 1.99% by the insurance industry association [1] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (1276.HK) opened up 10.65% after announcing a global exclusive licensing agreement with GSK for the HRS-9821 project, excluding mainland China and certain regions [1] - Guangshen Railway (00525.HK) saw a peak increase of over 9% after signing a cooperation agreement for the Guangzhou East Station renovation project, with a total investment of approximately 16.66 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Other Notable Stock Movements - MicroPort Medical (00853.HK) surged over 8% as major shareholders agreed to sell a total of 291 million shares to various buyers, including funds under Shanghai Industrial Capital [2] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) rose over 5% following the release of a draft management regulation for domestic duty-free tobacco products by the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration [2] - Shenghua Land (08106) saw its stock price soar over 200% after a share acquisition agreement was reached [2] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings (09636) increased over 10% after announcing a profit forecast for the first half of the year, expecting a net profit of 830 to 870 million yuan, a turnaround from a net loss of 174 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - Lianlian Digital (02598) rose over 7% as a report highlighted the significant role of third-party payment institutions in cross-border and multi-currency settlement services [2] Group 3: Macau Gaming Sector Performance - Gaming stocks saw a general increase, with Amax Holdings (00880) up 10.39%, Melco International Development (00200) up 5.64%, and Sands China (01928) up 3.25%. UBS reported that the average daily gaming revenue in Macau for the past week was 657 million patacas, a slight decline due to typhoon impacts, but still showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 14% [3] Group 4: US Stock Market Highlights - AMD (AMD.US) rose 2.68% as it achieved a 50% market share in the server CPU market, matching Intel for the first time [4] - Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) increased by 6.89%, reporting a second-quarter earnings per share of $1.85, up from 73 cents year-on-year [5] - Berkshire Hathaway's holding Verisign (VRSN.US) rose 6.67% despite Q2 revenue falling short of market expectations, as the company raised its full-year revenue guidance [5] - Tesla (TSLA.US) increased by 3.52% with plans to launch Robotaxi services in San Francisco [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration regarding the management of tobacco products in the domestic duty-free market has positively impacted the stock price of China Tobacco Hong Kong, which rose over 13% [1] Company Summary - China Tobacco Hong Kong stated that its exclusive cigarette export business will not be affected by the draft regulations released by the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Policy - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with ten other departments, has released an implementation plan to promote agricultural product consumption, aiming to effectively expand consumption in this sector [1] Group 2: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index ADR fell by 0.21%, closing at 25,334.64 points, down 53.71 points from the Hong Kong market [2] - The Dow Jones increased by 208.01 points, or 0.47%, closing at 44,901.92 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also saw gains of 50.36 points (0.24%) and 25.30 points (0.40%) respectively [2] Group 3: Financial Data - The Ministry of Finance reported that the stamp duty on securities transactions reached 78.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 54.1% [3] - National public budget revenue for the first half of the year was 115,566 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [3] Group 4: AI and Technology Developments - The "AI Investment Alliance" was officially established during the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, with members including major companies and institutions like China Telecom and Tsinghua University [4] - Tesla's third-generation robot is set to enter the Chinese consumer market by 2025, with plans for mass production of 1 million units within five years [6] - Kuaishou's AI has launched a new feature called "Ling Animation Canvas," enhancing creative collaboration and visualization for creators [7] Group 5: Corporate Actions - Fushi Financial's subsidiary has applied for a license to conduct regulated activities related to virtual asset trading in Hong Kong [8] - Giant Star Legend plans to raise approximately 324 million HKD through a share placement at a discount of about 19.91% [9] - First Capital Securities is planning to list in Hong Kong, potentially becoming the 14th "A+H" stock brokerage [10] Group 6: Earnings Forecasts - Laoshu Gold anticipates a net profit of approximately 2.23 to 2.28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 279% to 288% [13]

Core Viewpoint - 中烟香港's exclusive cigarette export business will not be affected by the draft regulations released by the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration [1] Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The draft regulations titled "Management Measures for Tobacco Products in the Duty-Free Market" were published on July 25, 2025 [1] - The only enterprise qualified for tobacco import and export state-owned trade is China Tobacco International Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Business Operations - 中烟香港 engages in the procurement of cigarettes from China National Tobacco Corporation and exclusively sells them in duty-free markets in Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Macau [1] - Approximately 10% of 中烟香港's revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is derived from the domestic duty-free cigarette business in China [1] - The draft regulations do not impact 中烟香港's exclusive cigarette export business outside of the domestic duty-free market [1]