Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand and cost - side support need to be closely monitored [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, prices are expected to move closer to the real fundamentals, and the influence of demand - side changes on prices will gradually increase. Speculative funds are advised to be cautious, while hedging funds can take appropriate opportunities [11]. 3. Summary by Category Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%), also with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased, while hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai increased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market was weak. In terms of macro - factors, the Politburo meeting's stance on real estate remained unchanged, and export competitiveness weakened. Rebar speculative demand declined with price drops and inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production rose rapidly, and inventory slightly accumulated. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.96% (+7.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 94.81 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.92 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.88% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non - mainstream country shipments increased and arrivals increased. The average daily pig iron output decreased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased. The steel mill profitability rate is high, and there is still demand support, while the supply growth is limited, and port inventory is trending downward [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.17% to close at 5972 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) fell 0.14% to close at 5674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, market funds had significant differences, and prices fluctuated widely. In the long term, the fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are still in an oversupply situation, and future demand is expected to weaken [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.65% (-140), with an increase in weighted positions. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48980 yuan/ton, down 0.84% (-415), with a decrease in weighted positions [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, production in all major producing areas has increased, and cost support is limited. Although polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, the price may be weak in the short term. For polysilicon, prices are affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 55 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased. The spot price of soda ash remained stable, and the domestic soda ash manufacturer inventory increased. The downstream demand for soda ash was lukewarm, and the supply slightly increased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and in the long term, they will follow macro - sentiment. If real estate policies are introduced, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18]. Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: The prices of some coal and coke varieties increased, such as Shanxi Liulin low - sulfur coal up 50 yuan, and Ordos secondary coke up 50 yuan [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 重回基本面，价格大幅下行 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-08-04 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 玻璃:重回基本面，价格大幅向下 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量增加。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.96万吨，比24日+0.38%。行业开工率为75%，与24日持平；行业产能利用率为79.78%，比24日+0.3个 | | | | 百分点。本周一条前期点火的产线开始出玻璃，供应量增长，下周暂无产线存在冷修或者点火计划。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 淡季需求整体承压，短期保有韧性，且随着价格向上，部分需求被刺激，产销改善。 | | 库存 | 偏多 | 库存去化明显，企业库存5949.9万重箱，环比-239.7万重箱，环比-3.87%，同比 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 研究报告 纯碱周报 "反内卷"情绪持续降温，市场回归基本面 华龙期货投资咨询部 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存压力仍存，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 179.58 万吨，较上周一增加 1.22 万吨，涨幅 0.68%。 【综合分析】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1228-1432 元/吨之间运行， 价格回落。 截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 184 元/吨，周度跌涨-12.78%，报收 1256 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双降，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日， 上周国内纯碱产量 69.98 万吨，环比减少 2.40 万吨，跌幅 3.32%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 80 ...

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——交易回归现实 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月3日 一、玻璃核心观点 【供应】 目前玻璃日熔处于15.96万吨，整体稳定。暂无预期外变动，安徽冠盛 600 吨预计 7-8月点火，安全六线预计 7-8月点火，乌海中玻 800 吨一线预计 8-10 月前后冷修。 【库存】 玻璃厂内库存5949.9万重箱，环比-239.7万重箱，环比-3.87%，同比-13.88%。折库存天数25.5天，较上 期-1.1天。沙河中游库存快速增加；负反馈下，现货跟跌，产销疲弱。 【利润】 隆众数据，各工艺玻璃产线利润，天然气-150元，煤制气+138元，石油焦+138元。 【需求】 截至7月底，深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.55天，环比+2.7%，同比-1.55%；深加工持有原片库存13天，环 比+25%，同比+54.76%。本周各区平均产销84，上周123，环比上周明显走弱。 【策略观点】 交易回归产业现实，不过政策预期或在持续与降温中反复，市场情绪亦有反复。基本面看，供应端日熔小幅 回升，暂无预期外状况。当前玻璃累计表需下滑8 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is relatively large, and the market is starting to follow the delivery logic. There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is approaching delivery, causing trading to return to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price is forecasted to be between 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass inventory, sell FG2509 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs. For low glass inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1000 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash inventory, sell SA2509 futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For low soda ash inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the glass 05 contract was at 1295 (down 0.23% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1102 (down 1.34%), and the 01 contract was at 1224 (unchanged). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 193 (up 12), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 122 (down 15), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 71 (up 3) [6]. - **Glass Spot**: The average price of glass in the Shahe area on August 1, 2025, was 1248, down 19.4 from the previous day. Prices in most regions decreased slightly [7]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was at 1379 (up 0.07% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1256 (up 0.72%), and the 01 contract was at 1333 (up 0.6%). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 123 (down 8), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 77 (up 1), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 46 (up 7) [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 1, 2025. The heavy - alkali price in Shahe was 1246, down 1 from the previous day [9].

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/7/24 | | 2025/7/30 | | 2025/7/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/7/24 | 2025/7/30 | | 2025/7/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 | 1250.0 5mm大 板 | 1301.0 | 1284.0 | 34.0 | -17.0 | FG09合约 | 1307.0 | 1191.0 | 1117.0 | -190.0 | -74.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1258.0 5mm大板 | 1233.0 | 1233.0 | -25.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1402.0 | 1320.0 | 1224.0 | -178.0 | -96.0 | | 沙河5mm大 | 1241.0 板低价 | 1233.0 ...

近期，玻璃、纯碱期货价格波动加剧。在"反内卷"政策的影响下，玻璃、纯碱产业正经历着深刻的市场 变革。这轮由政策预期主导的市场波动，既让部分企业暂时缓解了经营压力，也暴露了行业供需格局中 的深层次问题，产业链各环节都在预期与现实中寻找新的平衡。针对供需调整、产业驱动因素、企业应 对策略等话题，期货日报记者通过对湖北、河北、山东等地的产业企业的电话调研，深入剖析"反内 卷"背景下玻璃、纯碱行业的真实生态与发展趋势。 把握"反内卷"政策机遇 从情绪驱动到现实检验 近期，在玻璃、纯碱市场，政策与供需预期的博弈，成为市场走势的核心驱动因素。从产能淘汰政策的 推进，到下游需求结构的动态变化，再到短期追涨行为与长期行业整合趋势的交织，市场参与者的情绪 在乐观与谨慎之间频繁切换。对玻璃、纯碱产业企业而言，如何在价格起伏中坚守理性，在诸多不确定 性里锚定经营决策的确定性，已成为当下亟待解决的问题。 "'反内卷'政策的核心，是解决违背经济运行规律的低质量、同质化竞争问题。"中信寰球商贸有限公司 玻璃、纯碱期现业务总经理范国圣表示，这一政策信号的释放，迅速在玻璃、纯碱市场掀起波澜。 2025年6月，玻璃与纯碱价格处于历史低位，玻璃 ...

近期，玻璃、纯碱期货价格波动加剧。在"反内卷"政策的影响下，玻璃、纯碱产业正经历着深刻的市场 变革。这轮由政策预期主导的市场波动，既让部分企业暂时缓解了经营压力，也暴露了行业供需格局中 的深层次问题，产业链各环节都在预期与现实中寻找新的平衡。针对供需调整、产业驱动因素、企业应 对策略等话题，记者通过对湖北、河北、山东等地的产业企业的电话调研，深入剖析"反内卷"背景下玻 璃、纯碱行业的真实生态与发展趋势。 从情绪驱动到现实检验 近期，在玻璃、纯碱市场，政策与供需预期的博弈，成为市场走势的核心驱动因素。从产能淘汰政策的 推进，到下游需求结构的动态变化，再到短期追涨行为与长期行业整合趋势的交织，市场参与者的情绪 在乐观与谨慎之间频繁切换。对玻璃、纯碱产业企业而言，如何在价格起伏中坚守理性，在诸多不确定 性里锚定经营决策的确定性，已成为当下亟待解决的问题。 "'反内卷'政策的核心，是解决违背经济运行规律的低质量、同质化竞争问题。"中信寰球商贸有限公司 玻璃、纯碱期现业务总经理范国圣表示，这一政策信号的释放，迅速在玻璃、纯碱市场掀起波澜。 2025年6月，玻璃与纯碱价格处于历史低位，玻璃行业亏损面持续扩大。 "从往年玻 ...

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/31 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/30 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/29 | | | | | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/29 | | 2025/7/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1240.0 | 1301.0 | 1301.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1211.0 | 1188.0 | 1191.0 | -20.0 | 3.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1248.0 | 1280.0 | 1233.0 | -15.0 | -47.0 | FG01合约 | 1309.0 | 1313.0 | 1320.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in soda ash spot prices has led to improved profitability for some production companies, although most remain in a loss position [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Downstream companies show low acceptance of the recent price increase, primarily focusing on depleting existing inventory with limited procurement intentions [1] - Supply expectations indicate a potential reduction in maintenance among companies in August, which may lead to a recovery in operational load for soda ash producers; however, if anti-involution policies are not implemented, supply is likely to remain ample in August [1] - Demand has seen a notable increase in pending orders due to significant price hikes and speculative trading activity, although profit improvements in float and photovoltaic glass remain limited, weakening the marginal support for soda ash demand [1] - The overall supply-demand balance suggests that the mid-term oversupply situation in the soda ash industry may not change, with ongoing supply pressure [1]