国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 01 CONTENTS 2 02 短纤（PF） 03 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 01 本周短纤观点：矛盾仍未解决，震荡偏强 供应 工厂开工维持高位，平均开工97.4%，三房巷小幅提产外加新装置投产，短期实际负荷和开工提高。 需求 内需终端订单走弱，纱线、织造、坯布环节继续降负，后续需求预期较弱部分下游可能考虑1月中旬提前放假。原料大幅拉涨过程中终端补库 增加，但大多是在上周末附近低位促销时补库，周内面临持续大涨的价格，产销总体偏弱。越到下游跟涨越是艰难。短纤名义去库，实物库存 累库，静态库存压力不大，1 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Short Fiber, Bottle Chip Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Qian Jiayin, He Xiaoqin [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Short fiber: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. Currently, the upstream - downstream contradictions persist, and it is still volatile and strong. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year, and the game will continue [7]. - Bottle chip: It is volatile and weak. The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it is also volatile and strong. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year. There will be adjustments after over - rising, but the trend is still upward [9]. Summary by Directory Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - Spot plus fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton; the盘面 processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high [8]. - The盘面 processing fee is relatively low [104]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: Factory operation remains at a high level, with an average operation rate of 97.4%. Sanfangxiang slightly increased production, and new devices were put into production, increasing the short - term actual load and operation [7]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors continue to reduce their loads. The subsequent demand is expected to be weak, and some downstream enterprises may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. During the sharp rise of raw materials, terminal replenishment increased, but most of it was during the low - price promotion last weekend. The overall sales - to - production ratio is weak during the week, and it is more difficult to follow the price increase downstream [7]. - Inventory: Short fiber nominally reduces inventory, but physical inventory accumulates. The static inventory pressure is not significant, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 3.5 days and the physical inventory at 16.1 days [7]. Upstream Viewpoints - Not mentioned in the report Strategy - Unilateral: None [8] - Inter - period: Observe positive spreads on dips and intervene when the valuation is reasonable [8] - Inter - commodity: Hold long PX/TA and short PF [8] Bottle Chip (PR) Valuation and Profit - Spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, neutral; 02 - 03 processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, neutral [9] - Aggregation cost is around 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit calculated based on the domestic aggregation cost is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton [48] Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operation rate this week is 81.1%, and it is expected to reach 82.2% next week. Factory operations have increased again, with the load of Huafeng Zhuhai increasing, and the 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai producing products [9] - Demand: The off - season of demand continues, and the end - of - year stockpiling to increase the operation rate has not yet arrived. The average operation rate of beverage factories has decreased to around 60%, and the operation rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. The export volume in November - December is expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, mainly compensating for the export rhythm from September - October. With the price increase, the speculative demand of the middle and lower reaches has been released, and the factory has reduced inventory to about 13 days [9] Strategy - Unilateral: None [9] - Inter - period: Stop losses on reverse spreads and take long positions on positive spreads on dips (for contracts after March) [9] - Inter - commodity: None [9] Other Information Sino - US Negotiations and Tariffs - Fentanyl tariffs were reduced by 10%, and high - value reciprocal tariffs are no longer a potential weapon. The textile and clothing tax rate has decreased from 49.3% to 39.3%. The US may import a large amount in about one month, and there is still room for import in November - December, but it is expected to be mainly near - term orders. The positive impact is more reflected in the import expectations for the whole of next year, but competition from other countries should still be noted [10] New Capacity Planning in 2026 - Bottle chip: The domestic capacity to be put into operation (with relatively high certainty) is only the 400,000 - ton device of Kesheng and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2% [12] - Short fiber: The main domestic short - fiber devices are two sets: the 250,000 - ton device of Hengyi Yida and the 550,000 - ton device of Xin凤鸣, which are planned to be put into operation in the first half and mid - year respectively, with a relatively high capacity growth rate of 8.7%. In addition, since the 250,000 - ton device of Yida mainly produces sewing threads, it may also affect spunlace (through production conversion), and there is greater pressure on the non - standard price difference [15] Short - fiber Direct Export - It is expected to remain strong. The garment, weaving, and texturing sectors continue to shift overseas. The proportion of garment exports in Southeast Asia is high, and the production capacities of other countries such as Pakistan and Egypt have also increased, supporting the direct export of short fibers [16] - From the short - fiber export data from January - September 2025, the export growth rates of other regions except North America and Africa are relatively high, showing high resilience in the face of changes in trade conditions [17] Bottle Chip Market Conditions - Basis and monthly spread: In the second half of the week, raw materials rose sharply, the futures market followed, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread was generally weak [23] - Spot price and important spreads: Prices continued to rise, and the trading sentiment was fair. The factory's transaction price this week was 6050 - 6210 yuan/ton; the FOB price was 800 - 820 US dollars/ton [26] - Substitute spread comparison: The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a relatively low driving force for further substitution. The bottle chip maintains a relatively high level compared with general plastics such as PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues. Recently, the cost - effectiveness of bottle chips relative to PP is still relatively high [28][29] Production and Operation - Bottle chip: Since 2024, the production capacity base has been continuously expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber). After the Fuhai device was put into production this week, the subsequent production capacity base increased to 21.98 million tons. The bottle chip load this week is 81.1% [32] - Raw materials: PTA device increased its load, and the processing fee is at a low level; the MEG load has risen back to a high level, and the port inventory has accumulated [40][46] Cost and Profit - Aggregation cost is around 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit calculated based on the domestic aggregation cost is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton [48] Inventory - Bottle chip: The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has reached around 13 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons, and the estimated inventory in December is 3.44 million tons [53] - Short fiber: The polyester product follows the raw material price increase, and the inventory reduction is the main trend [114] Device Changes - Bottle chip: The 600,000 - ton device of Zhuhai Huafeng restarted. In late January 2026, it is expected that a 1.2 - million - ton device in Jiangyin will be shut down for maintenance (i.e., the total production reduction of Huafeng is expected to increase to 1.2 - 1.3 million tons, and the load will be reduced to around 60%), and it is expected to restart at the end of March. The 250,000 - ton device of Tenglong slightly reduced production to around 85% in mid - November, and it was originally planned to operate at full capacity around December 10, but it is now expected to operate at full capacity around late December. The 350,000 - ton device of Yisheng Dahua is expected to restart at the end of January, and Hainan Yisheng is expected to have additional corresponding maintenance. The new 300,000 - ton device of Fuhai was put into production and produced products on December 16 [59][60] Demand - Bottle chip: The downstream operation rate has increased month - on - month. The operation rate of beverage companies has increased slightly to between 70 - 90%, and there are some local areas with slightly higher or lower rates. In the sheet material sector, the operation rate in East China is 50 - 70%, and the operation rate in South China is around 40%. The average operation rate of edible oil companies is between 60 - 80%, and there are some local areas with slightly higher or lower rates [64][65] - Short fiber: The downstream operation of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [130] Global Trade Flow - Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and a small amount of growth is basically concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In addition, the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET substitution of virgin bottle chips in Europe and America also has bottlenecks in cost and supply. The overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle chip exports are: (1) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; (2) China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; (3) China - South Korea, Mexico, and the Middle East for re - export to North America; (4) China - Africa and South America [80] Export Situation - Bottle chip: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 658,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Among them, the tax code 39076910 was 125,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.5%, and 39076110 was 533,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The import volume of polyester slices was 25,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. From January - November 2025, the total domestic export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 7.088 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. Among them, the tax code 39076910 was 1.223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.0%, and 39076110 was 5.865 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.2% [87] - Polyester: In November, the export volume increased year - on - year, but there were differences month - on - month [119]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Dongfang Shenghong (SZ 000301) held its 35th meeting of the 9th Board of Directors on December 26, 2025, via telecommunication voting, where it reviewed the proposal for the 2026 first extraordinary shareholders' meeting [1] - For the first half of 2025, Dongfang Shenghong's revenue composition was as follows: petrochemical and chemical new materials accounted for 79.86%, chemical fibers for 18.43%, and other industries for 1.71% [1] - As of the report date, Dongfang Shenghong's market capitalization was 70.9 billion yuan [1]

| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2025-12-26 | 000420 | 吉林化纤 | 4.09 | 367.00 | | 1,501.03中国中金财富证券 | 西南证券股份有限 | | | | | | | | 英语奥三回上海英语 | 公司岳阳通海南路 | | | | | | | | 区湖滨路证券营业 | 证券营业部 | | | | | | | ਸੀ | | | 12月26日，吉林化纤大宗交易成交367万股，成交额1501.03万元，占当日总成交额的2.23%，成交价4.09元，较市场收盘价 4.23元折价3.31%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the polyester bottle chip market is experiencing a slight recovery in production with specific plants expected to restart operations by late December, while new capacity is set to come online in January 2026 [1] - The domestic production of polyester bottle chips stands at 333,600 tons, with a stable month-on-month performance, and the capacity utilization rate is at 73.05%, also unchanged from the previous period [1] - The production cost of polyester bottle chips is reported at 5,184 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 31 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, while the weekly production gross profit is at -118 yuan per ton, showing an increase of 11 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - According to Yide Futures, the supply side has seen a reduction in production, maintaining low operational levels, while the demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, indicating a potential for continued low processing margins [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that the demand for bottle chips is declining, with market prices following raw material trends, and overall market conditions remain unsatisfactory due to long-term overcapacity pressures [4]

E GET PERS 81+ 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/26 P 不 As 占 商品 POY 1 石脑油日 PX CFR PTA内盘现 PTA加 PTA平衡 仓单+有 PTA负 石脑油裂 50D/4 聚酯毛利 TA基美 日期 PX加工美 产销 原油 工差 台湾 न्ह 解价差 效预报 K 荷 负荷 8F alt 2025/1 2.35 60.5 531 867 4750 6210 87.63 336.0 106 -218 78.6 73.2 129107 -60 2/19 2025/1 62.1 540 893 4885 6345 84.91 353.0 105 -192 78.6 73.2 127869 -70 0.45 2/22 图H 2025/1 62.4 -185 -75 542 896 4955 6395 85.00 164 78.6 73.2 123951 0.45 354.0 2/23 2025/1 62.2 901 6395 361.0 120464 540 2015 84.03 206 -240 78.6 73.2 -75 0.40 2/24 2025/1 l RiH 62.2 54 ...

Market Overview - The market opened lower but showed a recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening down 3 points at 3937 and closing up 11 points at 3952, while the ChiNext Index opened up 3 points at 3232 and closed down 12 points at 3217 [1] Stock Performance - A total of 2296 stocks rose while 2179 stocks fell, indicating a slight advantage for the bulls, with 3270 stocks rising and 1927 stocks declining in the morning session [1] - Among the rising stocks, 88 had gains exceeding 9%, and 462 had gains over 3%. Conversely, no stocks fell more than 9%, and 101 stocks fell over 3% [1] Sector Analysis - The commercial aerospace sector led the gains, while sectors such as insurance, paper, chemical fiber, and automotive performed well. The metals sector began to adjust, and sectors like semiconductors, coal, and pharmaceuticals showed relative weakness [1] Technical Analysis - The market rebounded after hitting a support level at 3815 points, with a potential for further gains in the 3950-3980 range before year-end [1] - The current market dynamics suggest a strategy of controlling positions in high-performing stocks and holding onto quality stocks that have not yet rebounded [1] Investor Sentiment - The market is characterized by a "patience game," where investors may feel compelled to act as the market shows incremental gains, but caution is advised as the market may be artificially inflated [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations and rose during the morning session, with the North Star 50 Index showing strength while the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices were weak, resulting in over 3,200 stocks in the A-share market turning positive [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.29% to 3,952.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.37%. The North Star 50 Index rose by over 1%, with total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reaching 12,121 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - Strong performances were noted in sectors such as insurance, automotive, chemical fiber, and steel. The commercial aerospace concept saw a resurgence, with active participation in humanoid robots, military trade concepts, and flying car concepts [3] Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - According to Caixin Securities, the technical rebound trend of the market has not yet ended. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index achieved six consecutive gains, a certain level of profit-taking has accumulated. For the index to continue strengthening, a significant increase in trading volume is necessary; otherwise, short-term fluctuations may occur [3] - The current market shows active participation in various thematic sectors, indicating numerous short-term opportunities. Investors are advised to engage in structural opportunities while managing the rhythm of rotation. Looking ahead, with the release of economic data in November and the decisions from the three major overseas central banks, the impact of macroeconomic data on the market is expected to diminish. Liquidity and risk appetite will become more influential, coupled with positive domestic policy expectations, suggesting that the A-share market may gradually enter a "spring surge" phase. A breakout of the index with increased volume will be a key signal to observe the initiation of this "spring surge" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company Xin Feng Ming has reported a decrease in the number of shareholders and a significant change in stock performance, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [2] Group 1: Shareholder and Stock Performance - As of December 20, the number of shareholders for Xin Feng Ming was 18,137, a decrease of 1,620 from the previous period, representing a decline of 8.20% [2] - The closing price of Xin Feng Ming on December 23 was 18.29 yuan, reflecting an increase of 3.63%, with a cumulative increase of 13.11% since the concentration of shares began [2] - The stock experienced 8 days of increases and 2 days of decreases during this period [2] Group 2: Financing and Margin Data - The latest margin trading balance for Xin Feng Ming as of December 23 was 181 million yuan, with a financing balance of 174 million yuan [2] - The financing balance has decreased by 29.38 million yuan, a decline of 14.43% since the concentration of shares began [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Xin Feng Ming achieved a total operating revenue of 51.542 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.77% [2] - The net profit for the same period was 869 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.56% [2] - The basic earnings per share were 0.5800 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 4.92% [2] Group 4: Institutional Ratings - In the past month, Xin Feng Ming received buy ratings from two institutions [2] - The highest target price forecasted is 17.80 yuan, as reported by China International Capital Corporation on December 15 [2]