事件：公司发布2025年半年度报告，报告期内实现营收24.26亿元（YOY 14.44%）；实现归母净利润 2.61亿元（YoY+771.57%）；扣非归母净利润 1.92亿元（YoY+41.89%）；主营业务毛利率为69.56% （YoY-1.76pct）业绩仍受下游需求缩减影响，盈利能力受益于投资收益上涨+控费：报告期内，公司主 营业务实现营收24.25亿元（YoY-14.43%），主要受市场波动和公司战略调整影响：1）下游金融机构IT 预算整体收紧导致客户需求减少，由于市场竞争的加剧客户采购流程周期延长；2）公司战略性收缩部 分非核心业务以优化业务结构。报告期内，实现归母净利润2.61亿元（YoY+771.57%）大幅增长主要系 投资收益上涨，本期公司非经常性损益同比显著增长，其投资的赢时胜股票从去年同期的按非流动性金 融资产确认计量，转变为按照长期股权投资确认计量。面临下游需求不景气，公司灵活调整各项成本投 入，减少整体成本费用支出，本期主营业务的营业成本为7.39亿元（YoY-9.16%）。各项费用均缩减， 销售/管理/研发费用分别同比-26.03%/-20.71%/-10.77%；费用率方面，仅研 ...

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 2025年8月25日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 部 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 核心观点 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 最近，资本市场继续高歌猛进，风险偏好乐观亢奋，降息交易总体主导市场，风险资产多数收涨，波动率VIX指数大跌在 历史低位运行。海外，通胀的强韧与美联储官员的动荡，鲍威尔的言论不断扰动着降息预期，9月降息几乎板上钉钉，市场开 始关注后续降息的幅度和速度。全球主要股市多数收涨，美股再创历史新高，A股强劲上扬突破3800创出10年新高，BDI指数明 显下挫，美债收益率与美元指数联袂下挫，非美货币整体受益，大宗商品走势分化，油价反弹支撑能源板块并带动国际定价商 品表现相对偏强，CRB周度收涨，黄金与铜联袂走高；国内，"反内卷"行情有所降温，基 ...

韩国石化业或削减产能，化工板块上涨 市场要闻与数据 在石化产业反内卷消息以及对于韩国石化行业削减产能和重组的担忧下，周三下午化工板块大幅上涨。当前韩国 在产PX产能1033万吨，韩国也是我国最大的PX进口来源国，7月占比45.97%，若后续韩国石化产业重组或减停产 波及PX，则影响会比较大，目前影响集中在石脑油裂解，关注后续影响会不会扩大。 1、据环球网报道，在全球石化行业深陷低迷之际，韩国第三大乙烯生产商——丽川NCC株式会社（Yeochun NCC， 简称 YNCC）正站在破产边缘。多位业内人士透露，如果公司无法在8月21日前筹措3100亿韩元（约合2.23亿美元） 运营资金，将可能被迫违约，这意味着韩国石化产业链将面临一场冲击波。另外《朝鲜日报》称，韩国石化"四大 巨头"——乐天化学、LG化学、韩华解决方案、锦湖石化2021年合计盈利9万亿韩元，但去年亏损8784亿韩元，今 年上半年再亏近5000亿韩元，全年亏损或将扩大。受委托进行石油化工业务重组咨询服务的波士顿咨询公司代表 合伙人金志勋预测道："若当前萧条持续，3年后仅有50%的企业能够维持经营。" 2、韩国政府官员周三表示，十家韩国石化企业已同意重 ...

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]