导播的行为均构成对国贸朝货的侵权,我可将视情况追究法 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF fød 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 技资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/8/26 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/25 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4870 | 4850 | (20. 00) | | | | | 4542 | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4518 | | 24. 00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌18至6596。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4868 | 4862 | (6.00) | 短纤生产工厂价格稳定,贸易商价格有稳有跌, | | MEG收盘价 | 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Although there is no inventory accumulation pressure in August due to some device overhauls and increased polyester load, the cost side lacks support as oil prices are under pressure [5]. - For MEG, the short - term price center is expected to adjust within a range. With the recovery of polyester load and active point - pricing by polyester factories, the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September [7]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include planned PTA device overhauls in August and the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negative factors are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was stable, mainly traded among traders, and polyester factories replenished stocks. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The August goods were negotiated and traded around 09 - 10~15, with some lower prices, and a small amount was negotiated around 01 - 56~58, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4690. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 12 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4665, the 01 contract basis is - 81, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, and the short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: In the near term, the processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. There is no inventory accumulation pressure for PTA in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and the changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the basis strengthened moderately. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures were adjusted at a low level, and the market negotiation was fair. Polyester factories were actively pricing at low levels. The mainstream negotiation price of spot goods was around 4434 - 4448 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was running at a low level. The negotiation price of recent shipments was around 519 - 522 US dollars/ton. The market was mainly for inquiries from traders and some suppliers, and the daily transaction price was at the level of 520 - 522 US dollars/ton [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4439, the 09 contract basis is 93, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: The main net short position, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - Expectation: Last week, the polyester load recovered to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased. The demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price center adjustment of ethylene glycol, polyester factories actively participated in point - pricing. The port shipment will improve in the future, and the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, inventory, etc. [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, new production capacity, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, etc. [11] - **Price Data**: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on August 18 and August 15, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and profits of related products [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, under continuous low processing margins, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term and the spot basis will stabilize, with attention to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the increase is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is neutral to positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong, with attention to plant changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Reminders - Not provided in the content 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - **Price**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with individual polyester factories replenishing goods. The spot basis was stable. The price negotiation range of August goods was around 4,675 - 4,710, and today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 13. The processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 154.49 yuan/ton [5][12]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with fluctuations in supply and demand and inventory [10]. MEG - **Price**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The price of ethylene glycol in the night session fluctuated narrowly. The internal - market price index of ethylene glycol decreased from 4,202 yuan/ton to 4,482 yuan/ton [7][12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with changes in supply and demand and inventory [11]. 3.5. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday, with average spot market negotiation and stable basis [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,692, and the 09 contract basis is 0, indicating the spot price is at par with the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory decreased, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize [5]. 3.6. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened on Wednesday, with average market negotiation [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,488, and the 09 contract basis is 82, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory increased, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the supply - demand structure will be basically balanced from August to September. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. 3.7. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: At the demand end, with the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand, the terminal demand is definitely weakening [8]. 3.8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol (MEG) prices are expected to fluctuate within a range as the supply - demand balance remains stable with no obvious drivers. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost - end, and the processing fee on the disk should be operated within a range [3][4]. - For PX - TA, the near - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, mainly following cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic games. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee at low prices as the PX profit has recovered from a low level while the TA processing fee continues to decline [6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory decreased to 51.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 2 tons [3]. - **Device**: Some domestic and overseas devices have undergone maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment operations. The total load has dropped to 68.4% (- 0.6%), with coal - based MEG load rising to 75.14% (+ 0.14%) [3]. - **Profit**: The raw material cost changes have led to a significant compression of coal - based MEG profits, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has strengthened slightly and remained at a low level [3]. - **Demand**: The load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, but downstream demand is still weak. The subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season, and the load of some products is expected to increase [4]. PX - TA - **PX**: Some PX devices have increased their loads, and the supply is expected to increase in August. The PX profit has been significantly repaired [6]. - **PTA**: PTA devices have reduced their loads and carried out maintenance, and the processing fee has continued to decline. The social inventory has slightly increased [7]. - **Demand**: Similar to MEG, the load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, downstream demand is weak, and subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season [7]. Polyester - **Price and Profit**: The prices of polyester products have generally declined, and the profits of some products have changed. The processing fee of bottle chips has been repaired [13]. - **Load and Production**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 88.8% (+ 0.7%), and the production of some products has changed [13]. - **Inventory and Sales**: The inventory of some polyester products has increased, and the sales volume has decreased [13]. Device Information - **MEG Device**: Multiple domestic and overseas MEG devices are in various states such as maintenance, startup, and shutdown [19]. - **PX Device**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance or shutdown, and some are expected to restart soon [21]. - **PTA Device**: Some PTA devices are in the process of maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment [22]. Production and Supply Plan - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: There are production and supply plans for different periods from 2024 to 2027, with expected increases in production capacity [23]. - **Polyester**: There are also production plans for different polyester products in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 485 tons [24]. Market Data Charts - **PX**: Multiple charts show the price, inventory, load, and other data of PX, reflecting its market trends and seasonal characteristics [25][28][30][32]. - **PTA**: Various charts display the price, inventory, load, and other data of PTA, showing its market trends and seasonal patterns [74][77][79]. - **Polyester**: Charts present the price, load, production, sales, inventory, and other data of polyester products, reflecting the market situation and seasonal characteristics [107][108][110][113][115]. - **MEG**: Charts show the price, profit, load, inventory, and other data of MEG, demonstrating its market trends and seasonal features [168][169][171].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", with an expectation of being mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the polyester market has significantly weakened, and the fundamentals of PTA have slightly deteriorated. There are mixed factors in supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies, leading to an oscillating market outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Polyester load has declined, reducing PTA demand. PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $240, while the profit margins of alkylation transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains around $100 [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at 88%. The main polyester production cuts are concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties, which will affect polyester load. As PTA prices recover, the load of the weaving end has declined [3]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 35,000 tons this week, entering a destocking cycle [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device profits recover, the number of devices has increased rapidly, and market liquidity is slightly tight [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $240, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fees are maintained at around 250 yuan and have contracted [3]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices are at a moderately low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatics supply has increased, and the expansion of gasoline profits has boosted demand [3]. - **Macro - policy**: There is uncertainty in India's oil import policy from Russia due to Trump's threat of punishment, but Indian officials say the policy remains unchanged [3][9]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate, mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: The US is sanctioning Russian crude oil. Trump threatened to punish India if it does not cut off Russian oil imports, but Indian officials will continue to import [5][9]. - **Gasoline**: Demand is strong during the peak season. North American refinery loads remain high. Diesel price increases drive up crude oil prices, and crude oil inventory has increased continuously. Refinery operating rates are high, gasoline production exceeds 9.9 million barrels, but imports have decreased. Finished gasoline inventory decline supports crude oil and gasoline prices. The spread between European gasoline and naphtha remains at $150 [10][16][24]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Domestic Reforming Devices**: Loads are gradually recovering. North American reforming device profit margins remain unchanged, while reforming octane profit margins have slightly increased, and BTX extraction profit margins have slightly declined. Aromatics extraction demand can be met internally [27][43]. - **Selective Disproportionation**: Profits have shrunk. The economic viability of North American TDP and STDP is weak, and MX supply may decrease, but STDP profit margins have been positive for about two months [44][50]. - **Polyester Load**: It has started to decline. PX pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. PTA processing intervals are long - term below 500 yuan, and option - based income - enhancement schemes are more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are in the capacity - expansion cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable, with new export opportunities along the "Belt and Road" [51][55]. - **Reforming Device Maintenance**: It is gradually returning. Asian naphtha markets have strengthened slightly, and the cracking spread of naphtha - Brent crude oil has improved. Asian gasoline remains strong, but gasoline reforming profit margins have declined. Asian spot MX supply is still sufficient [56][57]. - **Gasoline and Aromatics Reforming**: Both have strengthened. Domestic commodity sentiment has weakened, polyester downstream load has decreased to 88%. PTA spot has become slightly more abundant, and port inventory has decreased. PTA basis has dropped from 0 to - 20. Some reforming device overhauls have been postponed, and bottle - chip manufacturers have started production - cut plans [63]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices have rebounded due to rising coal prices and improved macro - sentiment. Overseas device overhauls, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been postponed, and future arrivals are expected to decrease. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and the industry has entered an overhaul cycle, which has a negative impact on the market [70][77]. - **Gasoline**: Profits have recovered, and the load of major refineries has increased [79]. - **Polyester**: Downstream demand has weakened, and bottle - chip and short - fiber production facilities are undergoing maintenance. Raw material prices have risen, while terminal demand has weakened [87][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the expected port inventory of ethylene glycol is likely to remain stable or slightly decrease early next week, with the supply - demand structure remaining favorable this month. However, the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot, and the load of syngas - based ethylene glycol may increase from the middle of the month. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be adjusted within a range, facing upward pressure due to increased liquidity and weak demand. Attention should be paid to polyester sales and the restart progress of major ethylene glycol plants. The PTA market shows a neutral fundamental situation, with a positive bias in terms of basis, inventory, disk performance, and main - contract holdings [6][7]. - For MEG, on Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level. It is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June will still be tight, with the spot basis remaining strong. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure is favorable, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load. The fundamental situation is neutral, with a positive bias in basis and disk performance, and a negative bias in inventory and main - contract holdings [8][9]. - The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%, and domestic polyester has issues such as low average operating rates in some small and medium - sized enterprises, over - capacity of low - end products, and high inventory levels of filaments and staple fibers [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **PTA Daily Viewpoint** - Fundamental: On Friday, the main port transactions in mid - and late June were at 09 + 220~230, with prices around 4850 - 4940. The mainstream spot basis was 09 + 225 [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4897, and the 09 - contract basis was 245, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.02 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net long positions increased [7]. - **MEG Daily Viewpoint** - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level, with some traders participating in buying at night [8]. - Basis: The spot price was 4400, and the 09 - contract basis was 139, with the futures price at a discount [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 597,000 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons compared to the previous period [9]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net short positions increased [8] 3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Likely to be Bullish**: The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound [10]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. Domestic polyester has an average operating rate of 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises having an operating rate of less than 70%. Low - end over - capacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the disk rebounds [12] 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, demand, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the total operating rate, production, new capacity, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, demand, port inventory, and inventory change of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other price - related data from 2019 to 2025 [16][19][23][26][32][39] - **Inventory Analysis**: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, FDY, POY), and other products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][47] - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][57] - **Profit Data**: It includes the processing fee of PTA, production profit of MEG (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][67]