Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is due to some plants reducing production due to the weak liquid chlorine market and downstream seasonal restocking, but the supply - side driver is unsustainable as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season, so the rebound lacks sustainability [3] - In July, the caustic soda maintenance capacity decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously shut - down plants in Shandong will restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [3] - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina caustic soda inventory is neutral, but the export direction provides good support with strong willingness to restock at low prices [3] - The caustic soda trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 15, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2532, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 820, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2563, and the basis was 31 [1] Spot News - On July 15, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa remained unchanged at - 250 yuan ex - factory [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is driven by supply - side production cuts and downstream restocking, but the supply - side driver is short - lived as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [3] - In July, maintenance capacity decreased, and new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, leading to high supply pressure [3] - Non - aluminum demand support is weak, alumina inventory is neutral, and the export market provides good support [3]

Group 1 - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders in the range of 180 million to 198 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 242.67 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a reduction in losses [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be a loss of 210 million to 230 million yuan, compared to a loss of 274.11 million yuan in the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of 23.39% to 16.09% [1] - The basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.0699 to 0.0769 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.0942 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The company has implemented cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, which have improved the profitability of the chlor-alkali segment year-on-year, while the textile segment has shown slight operational improvement [1] - Despite these efforts, the overall performance has not turned profitable, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has still decreased in losses compared to the previous year [1] - The performance forecast has not been audited by the accounting firm, and the specific financial data will be confirmed in the company's 2025 semi-annual report [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Although recently affected by rising oil prices and positive domestic commodity sentiment, its rebound is under pressure due to postponed domestic plant maintenance, recovering overseas supply, potential PTA plant maintenance, and weakening terminal demand. However, considering future PTA plant startups, its supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it has support at low levels. The PX09 is expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: In July, its supply - demand is expected to be weak due to general plant maintenance, expected new plant startups, strong downstream polyester plant production cuts, and weakening terminal demand. Its absolute price rebound is under pressure, and it is expected to trade in the range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: With the increase in supply from domestic and overseas plants, its supply is turning loose. Although the polyester and terminal loads are declining, the cost side is strong, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Its absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is expected to trade in the range of 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: Its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts of bottle - chip plants and downstream follow - up [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. In July, the supply pressure is not large, and the de - stocking situation has improved. There is a lack of strong driving forces for both, and they should be traded within a range. The LP spread can be taken profit at around 250 [7]. Urea Industry The core drivers from the fundamental and macro - news aspects are the market confidence boost brought by the Indian tender price. The short - term market has expectations for export benefits. With support from agricultural and industrial demand and partial alleviation of supply pressure by maintenance plans, the short - term market shows an upward - fluctuating trend. However, the sustainability of demand is to be observed, and long positions should not be over - chased [10]. Crude Oil Industry The main logic for the oil price increase is geopolitical risks and supply interruption expectations. Although the EIA inventory is still accumulating, the refined oil crack spread is strong, and refinery processing demand exists. The oil price is likely to run strongly in the short term, and the WTI is expected to trade in the range of [64, 70] dollars/barrel, Brent in [67, 72] dollars/barrel, and SC in [510, 535] yuan/barrel [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand contradiction is limited. High profits stimulate high production, and the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. However, the trading activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and sporadic premium transactions have occurred. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [40]. - PVC: The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, but the supply - demand pattern has entered the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is difficult to see a sharp price decline in the short term due to the positive macro - atmosphere, and it is recommended to wait and see [40]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Recently, it has rebounded significantly at low levels due to strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity market sentiment. In July, its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and high port inventory. The rebound space may be restricted, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side and conduct spread reverse arbitrage [42]. - Styrene: The industry profit is good, and the industry operating rate is high. However, due to the increasing losses of some downstream industries and high finished - product inventory, its supply - demand is expected to weaken. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity atmosphere, its increase is limited. Short - selling opportunities above 7500 yuan/ton for EB08 can be considered [42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price dropped by 2.5%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. [2] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, WTI crude oil (August) rose by 2.8%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [2] PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) dropped by 1.3%, etc. [2] PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East - China spot price dropped by 0.5%, TA futures 2509 dropped by 0.9%, etc. [2] MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations MEG port inventory increased by 6.4%, and the arrival expectation decreased by 36.0% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes The Asian PX operating rate dropped by 0.5%, the Chinese PX operating rate increased by 0.3%, etc. [2] Polyolefin Industry Futures Contract Prices L2601 closed at 7278 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; PP2601 closed at 7054 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, etc. [7] Spot Prices East - China PP拉丝 spot price dropped by 0.42%, North - China LDPE film material spot price remained unchanged, etc. [7] Inventory and Operating Rates PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48%, PP device operating rate dropped by 1.1%, etc. [7] Urea Industry Futures Contract Prices The methanol main contract dropped by 1.17%, 01 contract rose by 0.06%, etc. [10] Spot Prices Shandong (small - particle) urea spot price remained unchanged, etc. [10] Supply and Demand Data Domestic urea weekly production increased by 1.12%, domestic urea plant - level inventory decreased by 4.99%, etc. [10] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads Brent rose by 0.23%, WTI rose by 0.16%, Brent M1 - M3 rose by 1.45%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads NYM RBOB rose by 0.04%, NYM ULSD rose by 0.60%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Crack Spreads US gasoline crack spread dropped by 0.33%, European diesel crack spread rose by 5.77%, etc. [13] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - 100% price remained unchanged, East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained unchanged, etc. [36] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits FOB East - China port caustic soda price dropped by 3.8%, PVC export profit increased by 11.2%, etc. [36][37] Supply and Demand Data Caustic soda industry operating rate dropped by 0.4%, PVC total operating rate dropped by 1.9%, etc. [38] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [42] Styrene - related Prices and Spreads Styrene East - China spot price dropped by 1.3%, EB futures 2508 dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42] Styrene Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows EPS ordinary material (East - China) rose by 1.8%, PS (East - China) rose by 0.4%, etc. [42] Inventory and Operating Rates Pure benzene East - China port inventory increased by 6.7%, styrene operating rate dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42]

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月11日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月11日 | 7月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | Brent | 68.64 | 70.19 | -1.55 | -2.21% | | | WTI | 66.81 | 66.57 | 0.24 | 0.36% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 512.80 | 520.30 | -7.50 | -1.44% | 元/相 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.87 | 2.14 | -0.27 | -12.62% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 2.43 | 2.33 | 0.10 | 4.29% | 美元/桶 | | SC MI-M3 | 15.90 | 16.90 | -1.00 | -5.92% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 1.83 | 2.07 | -0.24 | -11.59% | | | EFS | 1.78 | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and烧碱 are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, influenced by the macro - environment, the short - term futures price is strong, but the supply pressure is difficult to ease, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weak [4] - For烧碱, the low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase. The supply is expected to tighten, driving the price up. The demand shows limited improvement, and the supply pressure may intensify later [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5040 yuan/ton (+77), the East China basis is - 160 yuan/ton (-7), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (+3) [2] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4880 yuan/ton (+70), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4930 yuan/ton (+80) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of calcium carbide is 100 yuan/ton (-5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 552 yuan/ton (-48), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 695 yuan/ton (-2), and the PVC export profit is - 5.2 dollars/ton (+1.7) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 38.6 tons (-0.9), the social inventory is 37.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based operation rate is 76.93% (-3.80%), the ethylene - based operation rate is 70.23% (+4.77%), and the overall operation rate is 75.07% (-1.43%) [2] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 65.8 tons (+2.8) [2] 烧碱 - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2507 yuan/ton (+53), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 56 yuan/ton (-22) [2] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 428.3 yuan/ton (+31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 328.28 yuan/ton (+88.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1273.53 yuan/ton (+30.00) [3] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.43 tons (-0.99), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.40% (-0.10%) [3] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 81.56% (+0.89%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.89% (-1.36%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 77.80% (+2.63%) [3] Market Analysis PVC - The short - term futures price is strong due to the macro - environment. The supply pressure is high with new capacity expected to be put into production. The demand is weak both domestically and internationally, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [4] 烧碱 - The low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase and supply tightening expectation. The demand from alumina is stable, but the overall demand improvement is limited. The supply pressure may increase later [4] Strategy - For PVC, maintain a neutral view, focus on macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [5] - For烧碱, maintain a neutral view, pay attention to the price trend of liquid chlorine and the inventory - building rhythm of the main downstream [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic liquid caustic soda market in China is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda rising in Shandong and Guangdong, while most regions remain stable [1] - In Shandong, increased downstream demand and limited inventory among chlor-alkali enterprises have contributed to price increases for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda [1] - The main market prices for 32% ion membrane caustic soda in Shandong are between 800-885 RMB/ton, and for 50% ion membrane caustic soda, they are between 1300-1320 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of July 10, the weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country is 85.19%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 187,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.06% from July 2, while in Shandong, the inventory increased by 1.93% to 58,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall spot market remains stable, with some regions experiencing price increases due to temporary demand support from key downstream sectors [3] - The supply-demand imbalance is limited, but high profits are encouraging increased production, while trading activity between alumina plants and traders is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, driven by macroeconomic sentiment and speculative demand [3]

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-10 液氯市场低迷，烧碱盘面延续反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4963元/吨（+69）；华东基差-153元/吨（-39）;华南基差-113元/吨（-49）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4810元/吨（+30）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润105元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-552元/吨（-48）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-695元/吨（-2）；PVC出口利润-6.9美元/吨（+0.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.6万吨（-0.9）；PVC社会库存37.3万吨（+1.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.73%（+0.30%）； PVC乙烯法开工率65.46%（-1.92%）；PVC开工率76.50%（-0.31%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量65.8万吨（+2.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2454元/吨（+46）；山东32%液碱基差77元/吨（-46）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价810元/吨（+0）；山东50% ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquid caustic soda (liquid alkali) industry in China is experiencing stable growth driven by government support, technological innovation, and changes in competition and environmental policies, with a projected production increase in the coming years [1][6][20]. Industry Definition and Classification - Liquid caustic soda, chemically known as sodium hydroxide solution (NaOH), is a colorless and transparent liquid produced by dissolving solid caustic soda in water. It can be categorized into different concentrations, primarily 32% and 50% [2][3]. Current Industry Status - The liquid caustic soda industry is a significant high-energy-consuming sector. Post-COVID-19, global demand for liquid caustic soda is increasing, with a projected global production of 7,662.6 million tons in 2024, up by 236.8 million tons from 2023 [6][8]. Production and Demand Forecast - In China, the liquid caustic soda production is expected to reach 3,415.85 million tons in 2024, an increase of 68.94 million tons from 2023, with demand projected at 3,348.85 million tons [8][10]. Market Size and Pricing - The market size for liquid caustic soda in China is estimated at 75.329 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 13.181 billion yuan from 2023, with an average price of 2,249.4 yuan per ton [10][20]. Industry Chain - The liquid caustic soda industry chain includes upstream raw materials such as salt (NaCl) and limestone, midstream production primarily through electrolysis, and downstream applications across various sectors including chemical, textile, and food industries [12]. Competitive Landscape - The liquid caustic soda industry is capital-intensive, with major players including Tangshan Sanyou Chemical, Binhai Chemical Group, Zhejiang Juhua, and Jiangsu Meilan Chemical. The industry is seeing increased concentration due to government reforms and environmental policies [14][16]. Key Enterprises - Major companies in the liquid caustic soda sector include: - Binhai Chemical Group, with a production capacity of 610,000 tons and a revenue of 2 billion yuan in 2024 [16]. - Ningxia Yinglite Chemical, producing 211,000 tons of caustic soda in 2024, with a revenue of 394 million yuan [18]. Development Trends - The liquid caustic soda industry is expected to maintain stable growth, influenced by chlorine-alkali balance, renewable energy demand, and environmental policies, indicating a promising future [20].

Group 1 - The chemical sector shows a warming trend, with caustic soda prices rising over 3% due to stable supply and seasonal demand support from key downstream industries [1] - Approximately 500,000 tons of caustic soda production capacity is expected to come online in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by the addition of 9.2 million tons of alumina production capacity [3] - The cost of caustic soda is decreasing, with a reduction of about 150 yuan per ton due to lower prices of raw salt, coal, and industrial electricity [3] Group 2 - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production decreased by 2.0% to 80.5% last week, influenced by increased maintenance of production facilities [5] - Liquid chlorine prices are under pressure due to supply-demand imbalances, affecting the profitability of chlor-alkali products [5][6] - Short-term market sentiment is improving, with expectations for price recovery in liquid caustic soda due to potential temporary production cuts from reduced profitability [7] Group 3 - Long-term supply pressures remain, with expectations that caustic soda prices will not see significant increases despite short-term strength in the market [8] - The inventory of liquid caustic soda decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 million tons, indicating a neutral to high level compared to the same period last year [5]

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-09 山东液氯继续下跌，支撑烧碱盘面 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4894元/吨（+2）；华东基差-114元/吨（-2）;华南基差-64元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4830元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（-20）；电石利润105元/吨（-20）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-552元/吨（-48）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-695元/吨（-2）；PVC出口利润-7.7美元/吨（+1.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.6万吨（-0.9）；PVC社会库存37.3万吨（+1.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.73%（+0.30%）； PVC乙烯法开工率65.46%（-1.92%）；PVC开工率76.50%（-0.31%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量65.8万吨（+2.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2408元/吨（+0）；山东32%液碱基差123元/吨（+63）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价810元/吨（+20）；山东50%液碱报 ...