上市企业：镇洋发展（603213）,鄂尔多斯（600295）,北元集团（601568）,华塑股份（600935）,氯碱化 工（600618）,新疆天业（600075）,中泰化学（002092）,君正集团（601216）,嘉化能源（600273）,滨 化股份（601678） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国烧碱行业市场调查研究及未来趋势预测报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国烧碱(折100％)产量为387万吨，同比增长5.2%；2025年1-9月 中国烧碱(折100％)累计产量为3432.4万吨，累计增长5%。 2020-2025年1-9月中国烧碱(折100％)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-02 烧碱下游下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4553元/吨（+4）；华东基差-63元/吨（-4）;华南基差-53元/吨（-24）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4500元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+50）；电石利润-50元/吨（+50）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-9.2美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2212元/吨（-12）；山东32%液碱基差69元/吨（-51）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（-20）；山东50%液碱报价120 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The fundamentals of LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with both cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream demand has a slight increase, and the winter fuel demand provides support. In ports, the reduction of imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the de - stocking expectation and supports prices [6]. Natural Rubber - The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The terminal demand improvement is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [9]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but the continuous increase in OPEC+ production and the record - high US crude oil production put pressure on the supply - demand pattern. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with Brent crude oil likely to trade between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is good, but the short - term valuation drive is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to tighten in December but be relatively loose in Q1. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in December. - Short - fiber: The short - term price support is strong, but the absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is likely to be compressed. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price is under upward pressure. - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, but the upward drive is insufficient [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. - Glass: The short - term spot market is strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure later [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - range fluctuation [17]. LPG No overall view was provided in the LPG report, but price, inventory, and开工率 data were presented [18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 had different price changes on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some products also changed, with the price of华东PP拉丝现货 increasing by 0.32% and华北LLDPE现货 increasing by 0.30% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE企业库存 decreasing by 9.80% and PP企业库存 decreasing by 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 2.17%, while PP装置开工率 decreased by 0.18% [2]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices changed slightly on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some regions also had minor changes [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 4.19%, while甲醇港口库存 decreased by 7.83% [5]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with the上游 - domestic企业开工率 decreasing by 0.67% and the下游 -外采MTO装置开工率 decreasing by 0.78% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The price of云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.33%, and the price of泰标混合胶 increased by 0.34% [9]. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of some countries in September changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45%. The domestic tire production and export in October decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: The保税区库存 increased by 2.74% [9]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased on December 1st compared to November 28th [11]. - **Spreads**: Some price spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products also had different changes [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and CFR日本石脑油 changed. Downstream polyester product prices also had various changes, with POY150/48价格 decreasing by 0.1% [14]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads changed, such as PX -原油 increasing by 1.9% [14]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the亚洲PX开工率 decreasing by 1.3% [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, with纯苯华东现货 decreasing by 0.6% and苯乙烯华东现货 decreasing by 0.2% [15]. - **Spreads**: Related spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased by 1.6% [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and开工率 changed, with纯苯江苏港口库存 increasing by 36.6% and苯乙烯开工率 decreasing by 2.4% [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, with the华东报价 of glass increasing by 0.84% and the纯碱2605 increasing by 0.68% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 and production of soda ash decreased, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased, with the玻璃厂库 decreasing by 1.49% and the纯碱厂库 decreasing by 3.47% [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, with山东32%液碱折自价 decreasing by 2.7% [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, with the烧碱行业开工率 decreasing by 0.7% [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PVC and caustic soda changed, with the液碱华东厂库库存 increasing by 6.0% [17]. LPG - **Prices**: LPG futures and spot prices changed, with the主力 PG2601 decreasing by 1.59% and the华南现货(民用气) increasing by 1.81% [18]. - **Inventory**: LPG inventories decreased, with theLPG炼厂库容比 decreasing by 7.70% [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed, with the上游 -主营炼厂开工率 decreasing by 1.26% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The current supply - demand situation of caustic soda is loose. The supply has increased due to the end of production and maintenance of upstream enterprises this year, while the demand has been weak and difficult to bear the supply. With the arrival of winter, the active destocking pressure of upstream enterprises may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities on the disk [3]. - The current caustic soda pattern remains weak, and the futures price mainly follows the decline of the spot price. In the short term, it is difficult to change the current loose supply - demand pattern. If enterprises face active destocking pressure in the future, they may lower prices to digest inventory. However, since the current price is close to the loss of comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the disk has limited momentum to further release pessimistic sentiment and only operates at a discount to the spot price. It is recommended to focus on whether the active destocking behavior of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises is fulfilled before the Spring Festival [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In November, the domestic caustic soda futures showed oscillations in the first half of the month and further declined in the second half. Near the end of the month, the price slightly stabilized. The decline was mainly due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic expectations. The current situation is high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The inventory level is about 50% higher than that of last year. The industry characteristics lead to the need for upstream enterprises to actively destock before the Spring Festival, which may further suppress the spot price and guide the disk to weaken [10][11]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The report presents the spot prices of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Inner Mongolia on November 27, 2025 [12][16][18]. 3.3 Price Spreads - It shows the price spreads between different types of caustic soda (such as 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, 99% flake caustic soda - 32% caustic soda) and different regions (such as 32% caustic soda in Zhejiang - Shandong, 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu - Shandong) on November 27, 2025 [28]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production and Capacity Distribution**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. In November, the expected domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.755 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.07%. The domestic caustic soda production in October was 3.7577 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%. The operating rate of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises in November was 87.60%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.22% compared to October [44]. - **Maintenance**: The report lists the long - term shutdown, current maintenance, and planned future maintenance of chlor - alkali plants of various enterprises in different regions. The total impact on the 100% equivalent production this month is expected to be 93,600 tons [52]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Unit Operation**: It shows the operation status of flake caustic soda units of different manufacturers, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned startup [55]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - In October 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 41,860 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.77% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.78%. The exports were 33,251.06 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.39% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. The imports of solid caustic soda were 882.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.76%. The exports were 56,575.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 45.59% [59][60]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Alumina**: In November, the wait - and - see sentiment in the alumina market increased. Although the spot price of alumina had a phased rebound, the market still showed oversupply. The short - term production reduction of alumina plants had limited impact on monthly production, and the inventory was at a high level [75]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: In November, the domestic viscose staple fiber market declined. The monthly average price was 18,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decline of 0.75%. The cost side increased, the supply decreased slightly, but the inventory increased slightly. The market entered the off - season, and the demand decreased [75]. 3.7 Inventory - In November, the inventory of liquid and flake caustic soda plants increased month - on - month. The domestic liquid caustic soda plant inventory was 275,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.48% compared to October 31. The domestic flake caustic soda plant inventory was 33,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.94% [93]. 3.8 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. In November, the cost side strengthened month - on - month. The industrial salt market was weak, while the coal price increased. The national average price of industrial salt for large - scale industries decreased in November. The price of动力煤 in the main producing areas mainly increased [95][96][97]. 3.9 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report presents the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based northwest integrated chlor - alkali, and the market prices, capacity utilization rates, and production gross profits of products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane [104][110][118]. 3.10 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of caustic soda from 2024 to 2025, including data on total production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, consumption, and inventory changes, as well as their year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [125].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. If the raw material output is smooth, the rubber price is expected to weaken; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to trade in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased from 14,800 to 15,000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 200 yuan and a growth rate of 1.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14,600 to 14,650 yuan/ton, with a rise of 50 yuan and a growth rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of natural rubber futures increased from - 50 to - 35 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 30.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 5.45% to 451.50 thousand tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 1.71% to 195.00 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 8.60 thousand tons [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The geopolitical situation still supports oil prices in the short term, but under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On November 28, Brent crude oil was at 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49 US dollars or 0.78% from the previous day; WTI crude oil was at 58.55 US dollars/barrel; SC crude oil was at 450.90 yuan/barrel, up 5.80 yuan or 1.30% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: ICE Gasoil was at 669.75 US dollars/ton on November 28, up 5.75 US dollars or 0.87% from the previous day [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The European gasoline crack spread decreased by 12.98% to 17.82 US dollars/barrel on November 28 [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with limited upward and downward space. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term but may face pressure later, especially the 01 contract in December [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The North China glass quotation increased from 1070 to 1090 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.87% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production decreased due to some device overhauls, with the production rate dropping by 3.14% to 80.08% and the weekly output decreasing by 3.15% to 69.81 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.49% to 6236.20 ten - thousand weight boxes, and the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 3.47% to 158.74 million tons [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The increase in inland methanol supply is offset by weak coal - and gas - based profits. The reduction in port imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the port de - stocking expectation, providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The MA2601 closing price increased from 2114 to 2135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99% [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19% to 37.3712 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.67% to 75.74%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.78% to 82.31% [6]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Both polypropylene and polyethylene present a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary by Directory - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The L2601 closing price increased from 6789 to 6857 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.34% [9]. - **Polyolefin Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% to 45.4 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% to 54.6 million tons [9]. - **Polyolefin Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.17% to 84.5%, and the PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93% to 46.6% [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance, but its upward driving force is insufficient [11]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased from 665 to 669 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 0.6% [11]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The styrene East China spot price increased from 6560 to 6630 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.1% [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.6% to 16.40 million tons, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 76.6% [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PX is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. PTA is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in December. Short - fiber has limited price - driving force, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [12]. Summary by Directory - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The POY150/48 price decreased from 6490 to 6465 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan or 0.4% [12]. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price increased from 826 to 836 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2% [12]. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: The PTA East China spot price increased from 4610 to 4635 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.5% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Caustic soda prices are expected to run weakly, and PVC is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with weak demand and an oversupply pattern [13]. Summary by Directory - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price increased from 4450 to 4470 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4% [13]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6% to 90.3%, and the PVC overall operating rate increased by 1.0% to 77.5% [13]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 1.0% to 80.4% [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View No relevant information provided. Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: The main PG2512 contract price increased from 4259 to 4412 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.59% [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 7.70% to 23.7% [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.26% to 74.74%, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.26% to 69.8% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for caustic soda is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are declining and the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to reduced maintenance, while the demand side has a decline in alumina production and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory has been accumulating, and profits are under pressure, resulting in an overall market with no clear short - term driving force, expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of sample enterprises with a caustic soda capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. Loads in North China, Central China, and East China all increased [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production decreased, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20%. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [3] - **Inventory**: Recently, downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was poor, leading to an accumulation of caustic soda inventory. Factory inventory was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01% [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the current main contract was around 57, and the futures price was at a discount [3] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The price of liquid chlorine was stable, while the price of caustic soda decreased, resulting in a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price was neutral, and the absolute futures price was low. The near - month contract was near par [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there was no clear driving force for the futures market, which was expected to mainly oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There were no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies recommended for the time being [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The Shandong spot market was weak this week, and the bottom support of the futures market was weak. In the short term, with less future maintenance and the impact of new production capacity, supply pressure increased. Alumina production continued to decline, and the procurement rhythm of caustic soda slowed down, leading to an increase in factory inventory pressure. Spot prices were expected to decline in an oscillating manner [6] - **Position**: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [24] 3.3 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Caustic Soda - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, leading to an increase in electricity prices [32] - **Device Loss and Production**: The loss of devices decreased, and production in North China increased due to reduced maintenance [35][37] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali decreased [38] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - **Alumina**: The production of alumina recovered, but inventory accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profits were good and stable year - on - year [53][64] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [65][66] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate of the liquid chlorine downstream industry rebounded [73] - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in East China, Central China, and Southwest China had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026 [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The caustic soda industry faces supply - demand pressure, with high - level开工率 in Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises, high inventory, and weak demand support. The price is expected to run weakly [2]. - The PVC market is in an oversupply situation. The supply pressure remains high, the demand is sluggish, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply changes, and demand trends. The spot price has also shown instability, and the market is concerned about the future supply and demand balance [8]. - **Supply**: The industry开工率 is at a high level, and the inventory pressure of caustic soda plants is continuously increasing. As of Thursday, the national weighted average开工负荷 rate was 89.69%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week, while Shandong's开工率 was 91.66%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory in East China and Shandong has increased [21][27]. - **Demand**: The main downstream alumina industry is expected to have more production capacity put into operation in the first quarter of next year and may start stockpiling in the fourth quarter. The new production capacity is estimated to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year [29][32]. - **Export**: The export of caustic soda weakened in October, and the estimated export profit declined [58]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC futures price has been in a bottom - shock pattern, and the spot price has continued to weaken. The core contradiction is the lack of substantial improvement in supply and demand [65][66]. - **Profit**: The industry profit of PVC has been continuously deteriorating, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method [71]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the PVC industry has rebounded as some maintenance enterprises have resumed production. This week, the overall开工 load rate of PVC powder was 78.85%, a 1.37 - percentage - point increase from last week [81][87]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [95][96]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has decreased slightly, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [103]. - **Export**: In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons. The import volume in October was 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton, and the cumulative import from January to October was 186,400 tons [121].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the caustic soda market is expected to show a pattern of synchronous growth in supply and demand, but there will be a phased mismatch in rhythm and structure. The PVC market will face the triple characteristics of "high supply, pressured demand, and improved exports". The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile with a wide range, and the PVC market is expected to be volatile with a narrow range and the price center may move up [2][9]. - For caustic soda, the supply - side new capacity will continue to be released, and the demand - side main downstream alumina industry has a complex situation of "new investment and production cut expectations coexisting". For PVC, although the new capacity release slows down, the existing capacity output is still at a high level, and the industry is generally under pressure in a low - profit environment [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Annual Trend Review - In 2025, the PVC market fluctuated downward in the first half of the year and first rose then fell in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as social inventory, policy expectations, and overseas macro - uncertainties. The caustic soda market showed the characteristics of "falling from a high level and fluctuating in a range", and its price was driven by factors such as alumina demand, non - aluminum industry procurement rhythm, and chlor - alkali comprehensive cost [17][18]. Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - In 2025, the planned new capacity of the domestic PVC industry was 220 tons, and all were fulfilled by September, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. In 2026, there is no clear new capacity plan. The new capacity of the domestic caustic soda industry in 2025 was significantly lower than expected, with only 90 tons added, and the planned new capacity in 2026 is about 256 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 5% [23][27]. Chlor - alkali Supply and Production Profit - **PVC**: As of October 2025, the cumulative PVC output was 2013 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. The production profit was in a deep - loss range for most of the time, and the industry supply pressure continued to exist [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: As of October 2025, the cumulative caustic soda output was 3514 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48%. The production profit was generally profitable, but it declined in November [48]. PVC and Caustic Soda Basis Trend and Future Judgment - **PVC**: In 2025, the PVC market maintained a negative basis structure. In the future, the negative basis structure will still be the norm, but the level may narrow slightly. - **Caustic Soda**: In 2025, the caustic soda basis fluctuated sharply. In 2026, the negative basis may appear more frequently, and the overall basis center level may face downward pressure [60][61]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis - **PVC**: From January to October 2025, the domestic PVC export volume was 323 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.85%. The export to India is expected to be further boosted, and the export to other regions is also increasing. PVC products export showed a pattern of mixed performance in 2025 [67][85]. - **Caustic Soda**: From January to October 2025, the domestic caustic soda cumulative export volume was 349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%. Indonesia and Australia are the main export destinations [90]. Chlor - alkali Demand Status and Outlook - **PVC**: In 2025, the PVC market showed a pattern of "increased supply, high - growth exports, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the demand will still be dragged down by the real - estate market and maintain a weak and stable state [103]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand for caustic soda is mainly concentrated in industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and papermaking. In 2026, the new alumina capacity may bring new demand for caustic soda, but there are uncertainties [121][122]. Chlor - alkali Inventory Status and Outlook - In 2025, the PVC social inventory showed a pattern of year - on - year accumulation. In 2026, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are expected to remain loose, and the marginal change in export demand will be the key variable affecting the social inventory destocking rhythm [142][145].

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PVC shows a narrow - range fluctuation and rebounds with the macro - sentiment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the follow - up device maintenance and macro - sentiment should be focused on. The export window is open, but PVC product exports may be affected later [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak in the non - aluminum sector. The new alumina plant's procurement in the next two months may support the price, with cost support still existing [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures prices and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4,517 yuan/ton (+28), East China basis - 57 yuan/ton (-18), South China basis - 27 yuan/ton (-28) [1] - Spot prices: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4,460 yuan/ton (+10), South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4,490 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profits: Semi - coke price 800 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide price 2,830 yuan/ton (+25), calcium carbide profit - 100 yuan/ton (+25), PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit - 848 yuan/ton (-28), PVC ethylene method production gross profit - 516 yuan/ton (-25), PVC export profit - 3.4 dollars/ton (-8.8) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory 31.5 tons (-0.7), PVC social inventory 52.8 tons (+0.1), PVC calcium carbide method operation rate 82.21% (+2.06%), PVC ethylene method operation rate 71.12% (-0.19%), PVC operation rate 78.85% (+1.37%) [1] - Downstream order situation: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 67.6 tons (-2.3) [1] Market Analysis - PVC fluctuates narrowly and rebounds with the macro - sentiment. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises consider production cut. New production capacity is gradually put into production. The supply is abundant, downstream operation decreases slightly, and the overall purchasing sentiment is average. The domestic export window is open, but PVC product exports may be affected [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Narrow - range fluctuation and rebound with the macro - sentiment [4] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures prices and basis: SH main contract closed at 2,238 yuan/ton (+9), Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 106 yuan/ton (-40) [1] - Spot prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 750 yuan/ton (-10), Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1,230 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profits: Shandong caustic soda single - variety profit 1,348 yuan/ton (-31), Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 682.3 yuan/ton (-71.3), Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) - 229.72 yuan/ton (-66.25), Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 540.52 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 46.98 tons (+4.22), flake caustic soda factory inventory 3.27 tons (+0.18), caustic soda operation rate 85.00% (+0.40%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: Alumina operation rate 85.46% (+0.09%), East China printing and dyeing operation rate 65.52% (-1.03%), viscose staple fiber operation rate 91.29% (+1.20%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases slightly, and the demand from alumina plants in Shandong weakens. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu accumulates. The non - aluminum sector has weak demand. The new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price, and there is cost support [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Range fluctuation [5] - Inter - period: Go long on SH12 - 01 when the price is low [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]