Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown outstanding performance in 2025, leading the market with a 75% increase year-to-date as of October 10, 2025, driven by various factors including the impact of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - The strong performance of the non-ferrous sector is attributed to the rise in commodity prices across various sub-sectors, significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with expectations for further cuts [6]. - The anticipated continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further boost commodity prices in the non-ferrous sector, particularly for precious and industrial metals, which are sensitive to global interest rate environments [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There remains potential for investment in the non-ferrous sector, primarily due to the expected further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to additional price increases in the sector [6]. - Beyond the non-ferrous sector, other industries such as transportation (aviation, oil shipping), chemicals (pesticides, chlor-alkali), and construction materials (glass fiber, cement) are also approaching cyclical lows and turning points worth monitoring [10]. Group 3: Sector Comparisons - The non-ferrous sectors in Hong Kong and A-shares are fundamentally similar, with differences mainly in market conditions and investor types; currently, the valuation of the Hong Kong non-ferrous sector is relatively cheaper compared to A-shares [8]. Group 4: Investment Logic and Risks - The investment logic for the non-ferrous sector involves an initial phase driven by trading expectations based on macroeconomic conditions, followed by a second phase where actual commodity price increases may lead to stock price volatility [10]. - Key risks to monitor include potential price peaks, the pace of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, domestic macroeconomic conditions, and central bank gold purchasing activities [10].

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-16 烧碱山东去库，江苏累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4677元/吨（-15）；华东基差-77元/吨（+15）;华南基差-17元/吨（+15）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4660元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-12元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-622元/吨（+153）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-538元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润6.8美元/吨（-12.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.4万吨（+8.4）；PVC社会库存55.7万吨（+1.9）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量58.3万吨（-19.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2438元/吨（+10）；山东32%液碱基差156元/吨（-10）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - The post - holiday inventory pressure of polyolefins remains significant. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is prominent, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [2]. Methanol - The 01 contract is swinging between real - world pressure and future expectations. Supply has a resumption expectation, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are under pressure in the short term but have demand support in the long - term. PVC has a short - term inventory build - up pressure and the external macro - environment may affect the market [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PTA may oscillate weakly in the short term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be weak, short - fiber has a weak supply - demand expectation, and bottle - chip may enter a seasonal inventory build - up channel [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene is expected to be loose in October, and its price drive is weak. Styrene supply is expected to remain high, and its price is under pressure [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601, PP2601, etc. showed small declines on October 15 compared to October 14 [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories increased [2]. - **开工率**: PE and PP device and downstream weighted opening rates increased to varying degrees [2]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, while some spot prices decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased, while port and social inventories decreased [5]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream opening rates increased, while some decreased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Some prices remained stable, while some showed small changes [7]. - **Inventory**: PVC upstream factory and total social inventories increased [7]. - **开工率**: Some opening rates were not available, and some PVC downstream product opening rates decreased [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Most upstream and downstream product prices decreased slightly [8]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation also increased [8]. - **开工率**: Some opening rates increased, while some decreased [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Some upstream and downstream product prices decreased slightly [9]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased [9]. - **开工率**: Some opening rates increased, while some decreased [9].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced the list of 2025 Excellent Smart Factory projects, with two companies from Wuda District, Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd. and Inner Mongolia Dongjing Biological Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., being recognized for the first time, indicating a significant advancement towards high-end and intelligent industrial development in the region [1][6]. Group 1: Company Achievements - Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd. has developed a smart factory featuring advanced inspection robots and a fully digitalized production process, achieving real-time monitoring with an accuracy of ±0.2 [3][5]. - The company’s project is the first in the domestic chlor-alkali industry to implement a "three-no" smart factory model, which includes no manual inspections, no manual operations, and no manual records [5]. - In 2023, Xingfa's silicon-based smart manufacturing demonstration factory was recognized as a national-level smart manufacturing demonstration factory, marking a breakthrough for Wuhai City [6]. Group 2: Regional Development Strategy - Wuda District has implemented a comprehensive strategy to promote digital transformation in enterprises, transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader" in smart manufacturing [6][8]. - The district has established a supportive policy framework, including funding and targeted policies, to facilitate the digital transformation of enterprises and help them achieve national-level certifications [8][9]. - From 2022 to 2025, the district has allocated special funds for technological advancement, increasing from 10 million yuan to 18.61 million yuan annually, which has stimulated significant investment in various projects [9]. Group 3: Talent and Innovation - Wuda District has focused on attracting high-level technology and digital skills talent through various initiatives, enhancing the innovation capabilities of local enterprises [9]. - Collaborative efforts with universities have been established to tackle key technological challenges, further supporting the region's industrial transformation [9]. - As a result, the number of enterprises recognized as leading technology companies and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises has increased significantly, reflecting a boost in research and development activities [9].

Report Summary for Polyolefins 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The post - holiday inventory pressure of polyolefins remains significant. The supply side has long - term supply pressure, and the demand side lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited. PE's supply pressure is prominent due to increased domestic production and overseas destocking. PP's valuation has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of devices and new device production pressure in October [2]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined, with L2601 down 0.93%, L2509 down 1.05%, PP2601 down 1.36%, and PP2509 down 0.98%. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 10.23%, while the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 47.17%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as the 0.31% increase in East China PP fiber spot and the 0.86% decrease in North China LDPE film material spot [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit not clearly stated), and social inventory increased by 4.02% to 54.6 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 (unit not clearly stated) [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.26% to 83.9%, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.52% to 44.4%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.5% to 77.7%, and powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3% [2]. Report Summary for Benzene - Styrene 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene is expected to be loose in October, and the price driver is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to remain high, and the price is still under pressure. For pure benzene, BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. For styrene, the rebound of EB11 price should be treated as short - selling [5]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.5%, and CFR China benzene decreased by 2.1%. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 30.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.1% to 9.00 million tons, and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7% to 19.65 million tons [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 80.1%, and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 73.2% [5]. Report Summary for Methanol 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The methanol market has a mixed situation of long and short factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - time pressure and future expectations. Attention should be paid to the supply reduction expectation caused by overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as the operation of overseas devices and the situation of Iranian ship sanctions [6]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, MA2601 decreased by 2.90%, and MA2605 decreased by 2.29%. The MA15 spread increased by 116.67%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 72.22% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94 (unit not clearly stated), port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3 (unit not clearly stated) [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.01% to 78%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 4.63% to 86.28% [6]. Report Summary for Polyester Industry Chain 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the polyester industry chain, PX is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and short - term PX is in weak shock. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and the price is weak. Short - fiber prices are under pressure, and bottle chips are likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel [8]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the polyester industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 1.5%, and POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The coal - based MEG operating rate increased from 74.4% to 78.8%, and the Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.4% to 79.9% [8]. - **Inventory and Forecast**: MEG port inventory increased by 6.7% to 54.1 million tons, and the expected arrival of MEG increased by 27.5% to 10.2 million tons [8]. Report Summary for PVC and Caustic Soda 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in the short - term but has long - term demand support. PVC production pressure has slightly eased, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term disk is expected to continue to be under pressure [9]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of some PVC and caustic soda products declined. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.7%, and the 50% liquid caustic soda converted price in Shandong decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.6% to 88.2%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 6.2% to 80.8%. The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased, such as the 18.8% decrease in the开工 rate of Longzhong sample profiles [9]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 20.5% to 38.4 million tons, and the total PVC social inventory increased by 4.2% to 55.7 million tons [9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of caustic soda has declined significantly since September, driven by an exacerbation of supply-demand imbalances, with supply growth outpacing demand growth [1][3]. Supply Side - Caustic soda prices fell from 2738 CNY/ton at the beginning of September to 2400 CNY/ton after the National Day holiday, marking a cumulative decline of 12.34% [1]. - The average price of 32% ion membrane caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 870 CNY/ton to 800 CNY/ton during the same period [1]. - Domestic caustic soda production capacity is expanding significantly, with production at historical highs and inventories above last year's levels [1]. - By 2025, new domestic caustic soda capacity may exceed 2 million tons, with over 1 million tons of new installations already operational in the first three quarters of 2023 [1]. - Current caustic soda inventories stand at 421,200 tons, with most periods of the year seeing inventories above 400,000 tons, indicating persistent supply pressure [1]. Demand Side - The operating rate of alumina, the largest downstream consumer (28% share), increased from 75% to 85%, providing some support to caustic soda prices [3][6]. - However, the pace of increase in operating rates has slowed, and uncertainties regarding future installations may limit expected support [3]. - Non-alumina demand, particularly from the viscose staple fiber sector, has seen an increase in operating rates to 89.82%, but further increases are unlikely [3][6]. - The paper industry’s operating rate rose from 61% to 72%, but this increase may have peaked, limiting additional demand for caustic soda [6]. Export and Cost Factors - Caustic soda exports increased significantly, with 21,350 tons exported in August and a total of 224,660 tons from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 73,000 tons [7]. - However, international conditions may hinder further export growth due to Southeast Asia's capacity expansion and rising shipping costs [7]. - The price of raw salt remains stable, but coal prices have risen, increasing production costs for caustic soda [9]. - The profit margin for the "chlor-alkali + PVC" sector remains negative at around -70 CNY/ton, which may continue to compress profits and provide some cost support for caustic soda prices [9]. Overall Market Outlook - The downward trend in caustic soda prices is likely to continue, primarily due to high supply levels [9]. - The operating rates of alumina and other non-alumina sectors are expected to stabilize or decline, maintaining the oversupply situation [9]. - Potential positive variables include environmental restrictions, seasonal maintenance, and pre-production stockpiling in the alumina sector [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SH2601 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2501. The high warehouse receipts still suppress the futures price, and the market sentiment is weak due to the continuous Sino - US trade disputes [3]. - The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories is relatively high during the holiday, but the planned maintenance of North and East China devices this week may partially relieve the supply pressure. The demand for caustic soda from alumina enterprises is expected to remain stable in the short - term, while non - aluminum downstream industries lack demand improvement signals and are expected to maintain rigid procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may ease. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, which gives an improvement expectation for the long - term supply and demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2428 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2428 yuan/ton and 2533 yuan/ton respectively, down 36 yuan and 30 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4532 hands, down 3175 hands. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 329012 hands, an increase of 39319 hands, and the position is 111010 hands, an increase of 1784 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan, and the basis is 166 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 175 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 0 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali is 341 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories in China was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% week - on - week to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% week - on - week to 66.63% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory state [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price continues to decline. Supply is affected by increased maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in production. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. Inventory has increased, and the overall market situation is complex, with the short - term market expected to oscillate [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance increased, and production decreased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production decreased by 0.2 million tons to 83 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In some regions, such as the Northwest and North China, the load decreased [3] - **Demand**: It is in the seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased slightly, and the overall production of lithium hydroxide was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3] - **Inventory**: The shipment pressure has increased recently, and caustic soda inventory has accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more has increased [3] - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: The futures price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined significantly after the holiday. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The profit of chlor - alkali is at a high level, and the factory's operating load is maintained at a high level. With the increase in new maintenance this week, production has decreased. Post - holiday demand has improved slightly, and the supply pressure of caustic soda is expected to ease [9] - **Spot**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. The subsidy for liquid chlorine is low, and the price has dropped to - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali is good [9] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price has stabilized [34] - **Upstream Production**: Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [37] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China has increased, and production has decreased [40] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased [41] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [44] - **Alumina**: The start - up rate of alumina has recovered, and inventory has accumulated. The start - up rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices [56][57] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: The start - up of non - aluminum industries is stable but lower than the same period last year. It has entered the seasonal off - peak, and the start - up rate has begun to decline [66][67] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate has rebounded [74] - **Maintenance Plan**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in September and October, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The methanol market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between current pressure and future expectations. Supply - some inland plants are expected to resume production, but the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland area supports prices. Demand - traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected commissioning of new polyolefin plants suppresses MTO demand. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, PE's operating rate is rising, with few planned maintenance, and long - term supply pressure is prominent due to domestic production growth and overseas year - end inventory clearance. For PP, its valuation has been repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, and the restart rhythm of plants needs attention. In October, new plant commissioning pressure is high, and demand lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, domestic load remains high, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees, delayed commissioning of new PTA plants, and multiple PTA plants' maintenance plans. In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on PX1 following crude oil price rebounds and reverse calendar spreads. For PTA, supply is expected to shrink, but the basis repair is limited due to loose spot circulation and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations. Absolute prices are dragged down by weak oil prices and tariff policy uncertainties. Strategies include bearish trading on TA following crude oil price rebounds and rolling reverse calendar spreads for TA1 - 5. For ethylene glycol, port arrivals are high, new plant production is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with a weak supply - demand structure in the far - month. Strategies include shorting EG01, selling out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 - C - 4350, and reverse calendar spreads for EG1 - 5. For short - fiber, supply is high, and demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and weak oil prices. However, low inventory provides some support. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PF11, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. For bottle - chips, demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter the inventory accumulation period. PR follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to improve slightly. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PR, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, supply is expected to remain high due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity commissioning. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream plants plan to reduce production. However, port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Strategies include trading BZ2603 in line with styrene and crude oil price fluctuations. For styrene, supply is expected to increase due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of some plants. Although some plants may shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to offset the new supply. Demand decreased during the holiday but is expected to recover gradually. However, downstream profit pressure and high inventory may limit demand support. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on EB11 price rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, post - holiday inventory has increased significantly, and spot trading is light. Downstream non - aluminum inventory is being digested, and there may be some purchasing demand at low prices. The main alumina downstream has high inventory and low restocking willingness, and the future purchase price may be lowered. In the short term, caustic soda demand lacks support and is weak, but there is medium - to - long - term demand support from alumina's future commissioning. Short - term trading can be bearish, and downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season, with a continuous contraction in profile demand. However, exports relieve some of the oversupply pressure. Cost provides some bottom - line support. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2307 on October 10, up 17 (0.74%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2351, up 5 (0.21%). The MA15 spread was - 44, up 12 (- 21.43%). The Taicang basis was - 136, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the Inner Mongolia northern line was 2068 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.72%); Henan Luoyang was 2195, down 5 (- 0.23%); Taicang port was 2215, up 5 (0.23%). The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 148, up 20 (15.69%); between Taicang and Luoyang was 20, up 10 (100%) [1]. Inventory - Mid - sized methanol enterprises' inventory was 33.94 (6.08% increase); methanol port inventory was 154.3 million tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. Operating Rates - Upstream: domestic enterprises' operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); overseas enterprises in Shanghai was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); northwest enterprises' sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%). Downstream: the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); formaldehyde was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); acetic acid was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); MIBE + was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Polyolefin Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7037 on October 10, down 40 (- 0.57%); L2509 closed at 7124, down 34 (- 0.47%); PP2601 closed at 6722, down 23 (- 0.34%); PP2509 closed at 6782, down 25 (- 0.37%). The L2509 - 2601 spread was 87, up 6 (7.41%); PP2509 - 2601 was 60, down 2 (- 3.23%). Spot prices: East China PP fiber was 6630, down 20 (- 0.75%); North China LLDPE film was 6980, down 50 (- 0.71%) [5]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 48.9 million tons (27.67% increase), and social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%). PP enterprise inventory was 68.1 million tons (30.96% increase), and trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. Operating Rates - PE: the operating rate of plants was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%). PP: the operating rate of plants was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); powder plants was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Prices and Spreads - Crude oil and related products: Brent crude oil (December) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%). PX - related: CFR China PX was $809/ton, down $11 (- 1.4%); PX spot price (in RMB) was 6504 yuan/ton, down 82 (- 1.2%). Polyester products: POY150/48 price was 6770 yuan/ton, unchanged; DTY150/48 was 7850 yuan/ton, down 20 (- 0.3%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 23 (- 0.4%) [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 50.7 million tons, up 24.0% from September 22; the expected arrival was 8.0 million tons, down 15.4 (- 65.8%). Operating rates: Asian PX was 79.9%, up 1.9%; PTA was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG was 75.1%, up 2.7%; polyester comprehensive was 91.5%, up 1.2% [6]. Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads - Upstream: Brent crude oil (November) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was $577/ton, down $7 (- 1.2%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785/ton, down $20 (- 2.5%). Benzene - styrene: styrene East China spot was 6750 yuan/ton, down 80 (- 1.2%); EB2510 was 6670 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.8%); EB2511 was 6743 yuan/ton, down 75 (- 1.1%) [7]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Inventory: pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.10 million tons, down 1.50 (- 14.2%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 20.19 million tons, up 0.44 (2.2%). Operating rates: Asian pure benzene was 80.1%, up 1.1%; domestic pure benzene was 79.3%, up 0.6%; domestic hydrogenated benzene was 78.0%, unchanged; styrene was 73.2%, down 0.1% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - Caustic soda: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2546.9 yuan/ton, up 46.9 (1.9%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. PVC: East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 (- 1.0%) [8]. Supply and Demand - Supply (operating rates): caustic soda industry was 88.2%, up 1.4 (1.6%); PVC total was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%). Demand: caustic soda downstream - alumina industry was 83.4%, down 0.3 (- 0.3%); PVC downstream - Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 15.9%, down 23.0 (- 59.2%) [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited changes, and the spot market is weakly stable, waiting for a driving force. There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. The spot price is currently relatively strong, but as it enters the off - season later, the spot price may decline again [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in China has strengthened slightly. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda before the holiday was 813 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.625 yuan/dry ton), and after the holiday, it was 315 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.675 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali and the spread between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali vary in different regions and show different trends over time [27][31]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32 - alkali, 50 - alkali, and 99 - flake caustic soda between different regions also have different trends over time [34][35]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 85.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 86.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35% [40]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - There are long - term shutdown, this - week maintenance, and future - planned maintenance situations for chlor - alkali plants. For example, Yangmei in North China - Shanxi has been shut down since 2016, and Jiangsu Xinpu in East China - Jiangsu has resumed operation after maintenance from August 25th to September 14th [45]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The operation status of flake caustic soda plants varies among different manufacturers. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai's flake caustic soda plant in Shengxiong Factory has been under semi - load maintenance from September 6th to 26th, and there are also plans for future maintenance [47]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The alumina market has different price trends, spreads, production profits, operating rates, and inventory situations. For example, the average price of alumina in different regions shows different trends over time, and the production profit also fluctuates [54]. 3.4.2 Other Downstream Industries - In the viscose staple fiber industry, the capacity utilization rate this week is 89.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. In the printing and dyeing industry, as of October 9th, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 66.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47% [53]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 3, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 24.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, and the inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories is 2.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.59% [69]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market is stable this week, and the price of domestic thermal coal is rising. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali at the spot end this week is basically the same as last week [75]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - For chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC, the benchmark spot price shows a certain trend over time. The production capacity utilization rate and production profit of other chlorine - consuming products such as epoxy propane and epoxy chloropropane also have different performance [87][93]. 3.8 Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participants in the industrial chain have different operation suggestions. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can consider building inventory by selling put options and buying call options [4][5].