恒生科技 ETF， 2025 年 12 月复盘及 2026 年 1 月展望 [Table_Summary] ◼ 市场表现回顾： 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 金融产品深度报告 20260105 ◼ 事件驱动盘点： ◼ 指数后市展望： ◼ 风险提示： 1)行业政策或监管环境突变；2)宏观经济不及预期；3)发生重大预期外的宏 观事件。 2026 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《经济增长实现"开门红"的三条线 索》 2026-01-04 《"意料之外，情理之中"的委内瑞 拉事件》 2026-01-04 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 走势复盘：自 2025 年 12 月 1 日至 2026 年 1 月 2 日，恒生科技指数整 体呈"震荡下探，月中触底，2025 年末修复并在 2026 年初加速反弹" 的运行格局，区间累计上涨 1.62%，成交额约 1129 ...

从2009年第一家科技小院成立至今已有16年，该模式已经拓展至全国千余个村庄。中国工程院院士、科 技小院创始人张福锁在闭幕式上再次强调了科技小院为老百姓解决真问题的初心，肯定了学生们探索出 的从农田到餐桌全产业链运行新模式。 从2020年起，拼多多作为三届大赛的支持方，深度参与赛事策划、评审、考察全流程。2025年，在"千 亿扶持"计划的助力下，拼多多既通过平台资源助力入围项目技术落地与农产品产销对接，更在总决赛 阶段持续赋能，推动赛事成为展现农业科技成果、培育青年兴农人才、助力乡村振兴的重要平台。 01 小院创业卖面包 国产优质麦变身"增收法宝" 12月27日-28日，中国研究生乡村振兴科技强农+创新大赛"拼多多杯"第三届科技小院大赛（以下简 称"大赛"）总决赛在海南三亚顺利闭幕。 大赛以"解民生、治学问"为主题，引导广大研究生将课堂理论转化为解决农业农村实际问题的创新成 果，为乡村振兴和农业强国建设提供坚实的人才与科技支撑。 历经资格审查、初赛函评、五场组别赛的激烈角逐，以及全国赛阶段"院士飞行团"实地考察的严格考 评，从全国87个研究生培养单位247支参赛队伍中脱颖而出的22支优秀团队，成功晋级全国赛。 ...

Group 1 - The internet e-commerce sector increased by 1.91% on January 5, with Xin Xun Da leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up 2.24% [1] - Key stocks in the internet e-commerce sector showed significant price increases, with Xin Xun Da rising by 11.14% to a closing price of 19.45 [1] Group 2 - The internet e-commerce sector experienced a net outflow of 173 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 224 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for various stocks in the sector varied, with notable performances from stocks like Ji Hong Co. and Yi Wang Yi Chuang [2] - The data indicates a mixed sentiment among different types of investors, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors were more active [3]

"在国内舆论场看似'悄无声息'的背后，实则是中企扎根中东本土、默默深耕的上升期。" 蓝色光标沙特国家经理刘丹如，在与霞光社的交流中如是说道。 的确，相比较前两年，中企蜂拥而上、接踵而至的热度与盛况，刚刚过去的2025年，中东在出海赛道的声量有所回落。与此同时，拉美市场风头正劲 ——Keeta 强势进军巴西、Temu 访问量反超美客多等动态频出，持续吸引行业目光。 但中东在国内舆论场的日趋"低调"，不代表其发展按下暂停键 —— 相反，诸多实质性进展正在悄然发生。 普华永道 2025 年调研数据提供了有力佐证：近九成受访中资企业计划进入或继续深耕中东市场，其中 44% 已制定详细商业计划，这一比例较 2022 年提 高了 7 个百分点。从经营成果来看，40% 的受访企业实现盈利，较 2022 年大幅提升 9 个百分点，而亏损企业占比降至 15%；超三成企业的中东业务收入 占整体收入比例达 20% 以上，这一占比也较 2022 年提高 8 个百分点。 数据直观印证：中东市场已步入精耕细作的"静默增长期"。 对此，卡塔尔投资局大中华区总监司君桀在与霞光社的交流中谈到，中国企业在海湾地区的落地模式，正从早期的单点试水， ...

文 | 霞光社 李小天 "在国内舆论场看似'悄无声息'的背后，实则是中企扎根中东本土、默默深耕的上升期。" 蓝色光标沙特国家经理刘丹如，在与霞光社的交流中如是说道。 的确，相比较前两年，中企蜂拥而上、接踵而至的热度与盛况，刚刚过去的2025年，中东在出海赛道的声量有所回落。与此同时，拉美市场风头正劲 —— Keeta 强势进军巴西、Temu 访问量反超美客多等动态频出，持续吸引行业目光。 但中东在国内舆论场的日趋"低调"，不代表其发展按下暂停键 —— 相反，诸多实质性进展正在悄然发生。 普华永道 2025 年调研数据提供了有力佐证：近九成受访中资企业计划进入或继续深耕中东市场，其中 44% 已制定详细商业计划，这一比例较 2022 年提高 了 7 个百分点。从经营成果来看，40% 的受访企业实现盈利，较 2022 年大幅提升 9 个百分点，而亏损企业占比降至 15%；超三成企业的中东业务收入占整 体收入比例达 20% 以上，这一占比也较 2022 年提高 8 个百分点。 数据直观印证：中东市场已步入精耕细作的"静默增长期"。 对此，卡塔尔投资局大中华区总监司君桀在与霞光社的交流中谈到，中国企业在海湾地区的落地 ...

文 | 明晰野望 2025年以来亚马逊的日子着实不好过，股价的年度涨幅凑不出一个涨停板。也就是说，在AI疯涨的大 背景下，投资者压根没把亚马逊算在"AI阵营"里。一系列雷霆手段与其说是亚马逊在AI棋局上的主动出 击，不如说是一次紧迫的"战略补救"。 明明手握AWS、自研芯片和全球电商平台等王牌，亚马逊为何会将一手天胡好牌打得如此被动？ 昔日位面之子，沦为版本弃子？ 在"后百模大战"时期，头部玩家的打法已然清晰：以一个强大的、具备持续进化能力的自研基础大模型 为"大脑"，以自家的云平台为"躯干"提供算力与服务，再通过丰富的应用场景和开发者生态将AI能力注 入"四肢百骸"，形成正向循环、自我强化的闭环。 OpenAI以GPT系列模型为核心，通过与微软Azure的深度绑定，构建了强大的"模型+云"双引擎；字节 跳动则依托豆包大模型迅速赋能抖音、剪映等亿级用户产品，实现技术与场景的快速融合。 当谷歌、Meta、英伟达都在积极推进AI布局时，亚马逊也出招了。 12月17日，亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西亲自宣布，旗下负责大语言模型的AGI团队、自研芯片的Annapurna Labs，乃至前沿的量子计算团队将进行创造性"缝合"， ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi International has formed a strategic partnership with AliExpress, a cross-border e-commerce platform under Alibaba, to join the "Super Brand Going Global Program" [1][2] - The collaboration will focus on localized user operations and brand awareness building in key overseas markets, particularly for core product categories like smartphones and televisions [1][2] - Xiaomi's Senior Vice President and President of International Business, Zeng Xuezhong, stated that AliExpress has become the primary platform for Xiaomi's international expansion, with plans to increase investment in 2026 [1][2] Sales Performance - During the recent Black Friday sales, Xiaomi's POCO F8 series achieved sales of $2 million, becoming the top new product on AliExpress [1][2] - Xiaomi televisions ranked first in the television category in the European market on AliExpress [1][2] Program Impact - The "Super Brand Going Global Program" was officially launched by AliExpress in September 2025 [1][2] - During the overseas Double 11 and Black Friday events in 2025, over 300 brands on AliExpress achieved daily sales that were more than double those on Amazon, with the number of million-dollar brands increasing by 80% year-on-year [1][2]

元旦的恭城瑶族自治县，文庙的红墙下，深圳游客张先生牵着孩子的手，仰头细看大殿檐角琉璃脊 上斑驳的戏剧人物。"孩子课本里读'庙堂'，今天总算见了真的。"他笑道。不远处，武庙古戏台依稀传 来锣鼓声，仿佛穿越百年。3天小长假，这两座静静矗立600余年的古建筑，迎来了近万名游客。 热闹不只属于田间地头。在位于恭城的桂林聚鑫农业有限公司车间里，自动化生产线昼夜不停，新 鲜月柿经过加工、烘烤，变为柿饼、果干，日均处理超20吨。"订单排到年后了。"负责人指着繁忙的流 水线说。而在电商直播间，恭城森璐贸易的助农主播正热情介绍，月柿产品一小时便卖出近万单，发往 天南海北，甚至远至俄罗斯。 传承百年的油茶，也飘香出新的产业。在新欧记食品的洁净车间，浓缩油茶膏、速溶油茶等新产品 从流水线上鱼贯而出，设计日产能达2吨，仍供不应求。 据统计，元旦假期，全县接待游客超3万人次，同比增长近1/4。月柿系列产品销售额达8600万元， 其中超过1/3经由电商销往全国；油茶及相关制品销售额突破3200万元。随着灌平高速公路通车，来自 广东、湖南的游客占比显著提升，约占客流总量的六成。（施洋洋 韦六彬） 与古建的静雅相映成趣的，是莲花镇红岩村的生 ...

Group 1 - Tmall's New Year Festival offers simplified discounts, with official reductions starting at 8.8% off and additional consumer coupons available at 7.7% off, targeting various sectors including beauty, apparel, and electronics [1] - The first wave of 88VIP consumer coupons includes three tiers: 25 off for 200, 60 off for 480, and 200 off for 2000, catering to different consumer needs for purchasing New Year goods [1] - A new round of national subsidies has begun, with major appliances like air conditioners, TVs, washing machines, and refrigerators available at discounts as low as 50%, exemplified by the Siemens refrigerator priced at 5,999.5 after discount [3] Group 2 - AI glasses have been included in the national subsidy program for the first time, with sales on Tmall increasing over 15 times year-on-year, indicating a significant market growth [3] - Limited edition products for the Year of the Horse include luxury items from brands like Breitling and Chopard, showcasing a blend of modern craftsmanship and traditional design [3] - The trend of "Fat Horse" products has emerged, featuring rounded, cartoonish designs that appeal to younger consumers, with various brands releasing themed items that convey positive messages [4] Group 3 - The dining preferences of the younger generation emphasize a mix of traditional and modern cuisines, with high-end ingredients sourced globally, reflecting a desire for both quality and cultural connection [4] - Local specialties from various regions are highlighted, showcasing a trend where traditional foods are gaining popularity alongside international gourmet items [4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The New Year's holiday saw a significant increase in travel and consumption, with daily cross-regional personnel flow up 19.5% year-on-year and average consumer spending rising over 30% compared to last year [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating a recovery in exports and manufacturing activity [2] - Real estate transactions remain low, but there is a call for stronger policy support to stabilize the market [2] Group 2: Oil and Energy Sector - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has shifted dramatically, with the U.S. taking control of the oil industry, which may have far-reaching implications for global geopolitics and trade [3] - The potential for market-driven investments in Venezuela's oil sector could reshape the energy landscape in the Americas [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by improved PMI data and favorable liquidity conditions [6][9] - The focus for investors should be on thematic investments in sectors like commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, and domestic computing power [6] - A balanced approach is recommended, with an emphasis on high-dividend stocks and cyclical sectors such as consumer goods and energy [6] Group 4: Transportation Sector - During the New Year's holiday, the number of cross-regional travelers reached 595 million, with a daily average increase of 19.62% year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year [16] - The railway sector experienced the highest growth rate at 52.6%, indicating strong demand for rail travel [16] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The New Year's holiday saw a steady increase in consumer spending, with total spending reaching 847.89 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase year-on-year [17] - The report highlights structural opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in domestic brands, AI-enabled technology consumption, and emotional spending [17] Group 6: Real Estate Sector - The emphasis on managing expectations in the real estate market has increased, with a focus on stabilizing market sentiment [18] - There is optimism for investment opportunities in well-managed real estate companies and high-dividend property management firms [18] Group 7: Chemical Industry - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is expected to enter a favorable cycle due to strong demand from the electric vehicle sector and limited new capacity additions [19] - The industry is projected to achieve high operating rates of 87% to 95% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a positive outlook for key players [19] Group 8: Technology Sector - The CES 2026 event is anticipated to shift focus towards AI-driven technologies, marking a significant transition in the consumer electronics landscape [20] - The report suggests that AI applications will be a key area to watch, with implications for various sectors including automotive and industrial applications [20] Group 9: Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to face mixed conditions, with short-term trading opportunities arising from new public fund sales regulations [13] - The report suggests a focus on short-term strategies and flexible operations in response to market dynamics [14]