★ 宏观动态 ★ IMF将今年世界经济增长预期上调至3.3% 据新华社，国际货币基金组织（IMF）19日发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，预计2026年世界经济将增长 3.3%，较去年10月预测值上调0.2个百分点；2027年将增长3.2%，与去年10月预测值持平。 我国成功发射卫星互联网低轨19组卫星 据新华社，1月19日15时48分，我国在海南商业航天发射场使用长征十二号运载火箭，成功将卫星互联网低轨 19组卫星发射升空，卫星顺利进入预定轨道，发射任务获得圆满成功。 2025年广东货物贸易进出口同比增长4.4%，创历史年度新高 据"南方+"消息，海关总署广东分署统计，2025年，广东货物贸易进出口9.49万亿元人民币，同比增长4.4%， 创历史年度新高，占全国外贸总值的20.9%，较上年提升0.1个百分点，连续40年居全国各省市首位，对全国外 贸增长的贡献率达24.1%。其中，出口6.03万亿元，增长2.5%；进口3.46万亿元，增长7.8%。 飞猪：春节假期入境游机票预订量大涨超4倍 1月19日，飞猪发布的《2026年春节假期出游风向标》显示，随着国内高校陆续放假，学生迎来返程和出游高 峰期，1月以来大 ...

高端引领：携手米其林指南对话全球餐饮圈层 2024年9月23日，法国巴黎，五粮液与米其林指南正式缔结全球合作伙伴关系，成为行业唯一米其林指 南全球合作伙伴，开启中国白酒品牌国际化全新探索。签约落地后，五粮液系统性嵌入"顶级美酒搭配 世界多元美食"的核心场景，实现了中国白酒与全球顶级餐饮资源的深度对接。 当长江之头的千年浓香邂逅全球餐桌的多元风味，中国白酒龙头企业五粮液正以"美酒+美食"的创新融 合模式，重塑中国白酒的全球叙事。 2025年，在行业消费结构与市场格局加速变革的背景下，五粮液深耕全球布局、拓展多元场景、传递东 方文化，开辟出一条兼具高度、深度与温度的国际化新路径，让"大国浓香"跨越国界，深度融入全球生 活方式。 除了携手米其林指南实现高端破圈外，五粮液还以"五粮液大酒家"与"五粮·炙造"新潮体验店的双轨布 局，让"大国浓香"从高端宴席下沉至日常场景，与米其林指南合作形成互补，构建从高端宴请到日常消 费、从经典传承到潮流表达的全场景覆盖体系，推动"大国浓香"融入多元生活场景。 在海外市场，五粮液大酒家成为文化传播与情感交流的重要窗口。2025年9月，继日本东京、中国香港 之后，新加坡五粮液大酒家正式 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the baijiu segment, is experiencing significant price declines and a shift from high growth to deep adjustment due to changing market demand structures and increased competition [1][2][3][4] - As of January 19, 2026, the retail prices of major baijiu brands have dropped significantly, with Feitian Moutai down 30.63% to 1540 yuan per bottle and Wuliangye down 10.53% to 850 yuan per bottle compared to early 2025 [1] - The overall revenue and net profit of 20 A-share listed baijiu companies fell by 5.90% and 6.93% respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, with cash flow from operating activities down 20.85% [2] - Inventory pressure is rising, with total inventory increasing by 11.32% year-on-year to 170.686 billion yuan, indicating a transition from high growth to deep adjustment in the baijiu industry [2] Group 2 - In response to market pressures, companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are actively lowering prices to reduce inventory, with Moutai's products seeing price cuts of over 1000 yuan [3] - The changing consumption patterns, particularly among younger consumers, are leading to a decline in traditional high-end consumption, making price reductions an irreversible trend in the industry [3][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the baijiu industry may find a bottom in the second half of 2026, driven by a recovery in high-end banquet and business demand, although financial pressures are expected to intensify in the first half of 2026 [4] - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards high-quality development, focusing on high cost-performance products, targeting emerging consumer groups, and leveraging digital technology for better channel management [4]

2025年12月25日，有媒体报道称"某酒企拟收购水井坊"，当天交易白酒股异动，水井坊股价直线拉升封 涨停，收报39.8元，总市值达到194亿元。 其次，深化调整、优化市场结构。水井坊年度内实施停货、优化买赠政策、提升市场秩序管理力度等系 列调整措施，强化渠道信心与价格体系稳定性。水井坊表示，在短期内，公司销售收入与发货量减少， 但渠道库存质量、价格稳定性和分销结构均得到改善，为后续稳步恢复打下良好基础。 第三，夯实发展、保持长期投入。水井坊保持对品牌建设、终端拓展、产品创新与组织能力的持续投 入，优化费用使用效率以及改善各项生产力措施，体现上市公司坚持长期发展的战略导向，为行业周期 调整结束后的竞争力提升创造条件。 从总体来看，水井坊认为，2025年度业绩变化主要为行业周期与公司主动调整叠加的结果，现阶段结构 优化与渠道维护符合行业回归价值逻辑，并为未来稳健发展奠定更坚实基础。 目前，水井坊拥有"水井坊"和"第一坊"两大品牌，"水井坊"品牌包括水井坊井台系列、水井坊井台珍藏 (龙凤)、水井坊臻酿八号等产品；"第一坊"品牌包括元明清、第一坊等产品；同时推出天号陈、小水 井、水井赋等产品，以精准满足不同消费群体 ...

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 392 million yuan in 2025, a dramatic decline of 71% compared to 1.341 billion yuan in 2024, with revenue dropping from 5.217 billion yuan to 3.038 billion yuan, a decrease of 42% [1][2] - The non-recurring net profit is also projected to be 381 million yuan, reflecting a 71% decline, indicating that the performance drop is due to core business challenges rather than one-off losses [2] Industry Context - The company attributes its performance decline to a deep adjustment in the liquor industry, influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, with traditional business dining scenarios recovering slowly and high inventory levels persisting [2][3] - The high inventory levels suggest significant pressure on channels, as distributors face excess stock, which limits the company's ability to ship products, explaining why revenue decline (42%) is greater than net profit decline (71%) due to the dual pressure on gross margins and expense ratios [2] Inventory and Channel Management - The company has implemented a series of inventory control measures, including moderating shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel financial safety, prioritizing channel health [3] - While these measures may improve channel inventory quality and stabilize pricing, there are concerns about whether they can restore channel confidence during an industry downturn [3][4] Strategic Investments - Despite the significant drop in performance, the company emphasizes maintaining investments in brand building, terminal expansion, product innovation, and organizational capabilities while also optimizing expense efficiency [5] - The rising expense ratio is inevitable given the 42% revenue decline, suggesting that the effectiveness of the company's expense optimization efforts may be limited [5] Future Outlook - The company stresses the importance of laying a healthy foundation for future growth, but investors are concerned about the timeline for recovery [6] - Key uncertainties include when the industry cycle will bottom out, how long it will take to digest channel inventory, the stability of the pricing system, and the challenges of regaining lost market share [6][7][8] Investor Considerations - Investors should monitor the company's first-quarter performance, channel inventory data, pricing stability, changes in competitive dynamics, and trends in expense ratios to gauge the effectiveness of the company's adjustments [9]

今日聚焦 1、易点天下：停牌核查结束 明起复牌 易点天下公告，公司股票于2025年12月31日至2026年1月14日连续9个交易日收盘价涨幅偏离值累计超过 100%，公司就股票交易波动情况进行核查。停牌期间，公司就股价波动的相关事项进行了核查。鉴于 相关自查工作已完成，经公司申请，公司股票将于2026年1月20日（星期二）开市起复牌。 注：据统计，今年以来，易点天下的股价仅用了8个交易就已完成翻倍。1月5日至1月14日公司股价累计 涨幅达100.79%。 2、平治信息：预中标约4.89亿元智算服务项目 平治信息公告称，近日，浙江移动数智科技有限公司供应商门户网站发布了《浙江凌艾未来科技有限公 司智算服务项目标段1:设备租赁服务和维保服务成交候选人公示》，公司为上述项目的中标候选人。中 标含税金额约为4.89亿元。上述公示的相关项目属于平治信息的算力服务业务，后续平治信息若能顺利 签订合同，将对公司未来经营业绩产生积极作用。 3、江西铜业与兵工物资签订三年合作框架协议，预计每年向其销售97亿元铜杆等产品；拟注册发行不 超过250亿元债务融资工具 江西铜业公告称，公司已与中国兵工物资集团有限公司签订《合作框架协议 ...

在中国的社交场合中，有句老话广为流传："烟酒不分家"。在许多聚会和交际场合里，无论你是否吸 烟、是否喝酒，它们似乎总是如影随形，成为了一种文化符号。提到烟酒，很多国人对名烟名酒自然不 陌生，但你可曾知道，谁才是中国的烟王和酒王吗？ 今天，我们要为大家介绍的是，18年间为国家贡 献税收高达1400亿的"烟王"褚时健，以及48年喝掉超过2吨茅台的"酒王"季克良。 18年供税1400亿的烟 王——褚时健 褚时健，1928年1月出生于云南的一个普通农民家庭。15岁时，他的父亲去世，为了生 计，褚时健不得不辍学回家，跟随家人学起了酿酒。虽然他当时年纪尚小，但凭借着聪明才智，他自创 了一套独特的酿酒方法，既省料又使口感更为醇厚。 然而，21岁的褚时健并没有停留在家乡，他加入 了游击队，随即被分配到红光农场劳动。经过一段时间的辗转，36岁时，褚时健终于结束了艰苦的生 活，被调任到戛洒糖厂担任厂长。那时的戛洒糖厂，正处于亏损状态，前途黯淡，但褚时健却毫不畏 惧，迎难而上。在不到一年的时间里，他提出了多项改革措施，其中包括刮去熬糖大锅上厚重的锅垢， 从而减少热量损失、节省燃料，这些举措让糖厂逐渐恢复了生机，最终实现了盈利。 然 ...

证券日报网讯1月19日，水井坊（600779）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，为保证所有投资者平等 获悉公司信息，根据信息披露公平原则，公司将于定期报告中披露相应时点的股东人数，敬请关注公司 披露的定期报告相关内容。如需查询定期报告以外其他时间节点的股东人数，根据相关规定，应当向公 司提供证明持有公司股份类别以及持股数量等内容的书面文件，公司经核实股东身份后予以提供。同 时，查询的日期也应当符合中登公司的规定并签署保密等相关文件。如有任何问题，请致电公司投资者 热线028-86252847咨询。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the food and beverage industry experienced a downturn in performance and stock prices in 2025, with revenue growth slowing and net profit declining for the first time [2][16][23] - The food and beverage sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 831.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.14%, while net profit decreased by 4.57%, ranking 20th and 21st among 31 industries respectively [16][20] - The stock prices of the food and beverage sector fell by 4.72% from January to November 2025, placing it at the bottom of the performance rankings among the 31 industries [23][27] Group 2 - In the liquor industry, the report notes that channel destocking and low valuations combined with high dividend yields provide support for stock prices, despite a challenging environment due to policy impacts [3][36] - The report predicts that the white liquor industry will enter a "volume-price double kill" phase, characterized by intensified competition and market consolidation [3][36] - The report highlights that the beer sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026 due to cost advantages and a recovery in on-premise consumption [4][36] Group 3 - The dairy sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with low-temperature and deep-processed dairy products showing positive growth, while the overall profitability of dairy companies varies significantly [4][9] - The condiment industry is evolving towards customization driven by the rise of chain restaurants and strong retail channels, with a focus on companies that can meet tailored demands [4][9] - The frozen food sector is expected to return to positive growth as price wars ease, with companies like Anji actively exploring new sales channels [4][9] Group 4 - The soft drink market is primarily driven by functional beverages, which are seen as a high-growth segment, while the overall market growth is expected to rely on structural upgrades [4][9] - The snack industry is facing challenges with "revenue without profit," and companies with health-oriented products and strong channel advantages are recommended for attention [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The "iMoutai" product has been sold out in seconds for 19 consecutive days, leading to the emergence of reselling software and practices among scalpers, who claim to offer "early access" to purchases [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of "iMoutai" has a significant arbitrage opportunity, particularly with the new Year of the Horse Moutai, which has a premium exceeding 700 yuan per bottle [2]. - The retail price of Moutai is currently stable at around 1550 yuan per bottle, but the arbitrage potential for certain varieties like the Year of the Horse remains substantial [4]. - The wholesale price of the basic Year of the Horse Moutai is approximately 2600 yuan per bottle, while the premium version reaches 5400 yuan, doubling its initial price of 2499 yuan [4]. Group 2: Scalping Techniques - Scalpers utilize a combination of manual experience and automated software/scripts to increase their chances of successfully purchasing Moutai products [3]. - Some software claims to allow users to "enter early" into the purchasing process, enhancing their chances of securing a product before it sells out [3]. - Despite the use of these scripts, there is no guarantee of success, as users may still encounter messages indicating "insufficient stock" or "event has ended" [3].