01 大咖论道：洞察经济趋势，把脉投资财富方略 当前，全球宏观经济处于深刻的结构性调整之中。中国经济高质量发展的核心动力已转向创新驱动， "新质生产力"正成为引领未来发展的核心引 擎。"十五五"作为转型攻坚的关键阶段，需在巩固传统产业优势的同时，积极在科技创新、绿色低碳、数字融合等新赛道上构建系统性竞争力。 当顶尖智慧与远见卓识相遇，当产业机遇与资本洞察交融，一场旨在赋能区域商业的深度思享，于江淮大地启幕。 解析资本市场动态，助力企业财富增值与战略布局；挖掘区域产业升级机遇，明晰投资方向。 12月29日，由凤凰网与 中国名酒 剑南春联合主办的 "万里同春·徽聚未来——2025安徽企业家思享荟"在安徽合肥成功举办。 本次思享荟汇聚重磅嘉宾与行业精英，特邀知名经济学家付鹏、复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵宇、四川剑南春（集团）有限责任公司 副总经理田锋、凤凰网副总编辑张涛莅临现场。活动亦吸引了合肥本地科技、消费、金融、教育等多领域的领军企业高管共同参与。大家通过深度 分享与智慧对话，前瞻趋势、洞见机遇，为企业的财富管理与长远发展注入思想动力。 正如 复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家 邵宇所强调，当前经济 ...

编者按 2025年，中国酒水行业在挑战与机遇中持续变革。渠道库存高企、终端动销乏力等长期问题尚未缓解，政策、消 费与场景的多重变化推动行业步入深度调整。 与此同时，新机遇不断显现：年轻化趋势助推产品创新，低度酒、果露酒、气泡黄酒等成为连接Z世代的重要载 体；渠道去库存催生变革，即时零售、打酒铺等新模式助力动销提升；国内增长放缓，促使酒企加快出海步伐， 白酒正从商品出口迈向文化输出，积极拓展全球布局。 在此背景下，今年酒行业涌现出哪些重要趋势、变化与现象？南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组对此进行总结与 盘点。 "散酒"这种老模式，成为今年的"新事物"。 今年7月，上海一家阳春面馆在卖3元一碗阳春面的同时，还搭配出售48元/杯茅台酒（10毫升小瓶装）、24元五粮 液以及12元剑南春等，这种价格反差引起了社会的强烈关注，也让行业重新发现了散酒这种老模式的新价值。 南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到，今年下半年开始，各种新式"打酒铺"加速"上马"，从部分商超设 置了独立吧台按杯卖酒，再到酒企亲自下场布局"打酒铺"，散酒这门酒行业曾经赖以生存的老生意，在深度调整 期中焕发了新的生机，同时也受到了包括年轻人在内的 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant transformation in 2025, facing challenges such as high channel inventory and weak terminal sales, while also experiencing new opportunities driven by changing policies, consumption patterns, and scenarios [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The trend of "loose liquor" has resurfaced as a new phenomenon, with various new-style "liquor shops" emerging, allowing consumers to purchase liquor by the cup, which has gained recognition among younger consumers [2][3] - The "liquor shop" model has become popular, particularly in urban areas, with high demand observed in places like Guangzhou, where consumers are eager to try premium brands at lower prices [3][4] - The market for loose liquor is projected to exceed 800 billion yuan in 2024 and reach a trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a strong potential for growth [6] Group 2: Company Strategies - Major liquor companies are entering the "liquor shop" space, with brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Kuozi Jiu actively opening their own liquor shops to cater to community needs and alleviate inventory pressure [5][6] - The new liquor shops are designed to appeal to younger consumers, offering a social space that combines quality and affordability, thus addressing the evolving consumer preferences [6][7] Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - Despite the potential of the "liquor shop" model, there are concerns regarding profitability, cost pressures, and the balance of interests with traditional distributors [8] - Food safety issues related to loose liquor have raised public concerns, with incidents of contamination affecting consumer trust and potentially hindering the expansion of this model [9]

2025年以来，新京报记者持续调查曝光线上平台隐蔽售卖开盖酒等产品包装不完整的酒类产品，如名酒旗下单品 圆习酒、剑南春、郎牌郎酒等。 "3·15"期间曝光白酒开盖酒乱象后，相关店铺显示关店，一些发布此类视频的账号更名并清空相关内容。尽管此 类现象已有明显减少，但新京报记者注意到，仍有店铺售卖开盖酒等产品。多地市场监管部门、消费者协会提示 购买开盖酒存食品安全风险。近期，多家酒企也发布声明称，不对此类违规产品提供任何检验服务和售后服务。 开盖酒乱象减少 "开了盖、扫了瓶盖上的二维码领红包"的同款名酒，价格是正常包装产品市场价的一半，这类低价酒一度在多个 电商平台、二手交易平台以及直播间售卖。而这类酒往往被卖家解释成"套过酒厂的品鉴酒费""套过酒厂的扫码红 包活动"等。 今年"3·15"期间，新京报记者调查曝光线上平台隐蔽售卖开盖酒、换盖酒、换瓶酒、拆盒光瓶酒等产品包装不完 整的酒类产品，有的线上店铺直接标明"无损开瓶，扫过红包，刮码酒"。 "无损开瓶"并非不破坏原包装，通常是盖子被暴力拔下来，扫码后再将盖子装回去复原。一些商家用"无损"误导 消费者的同时，也因破坏了商品原包装，绕开验真溯源系统，真假难辨，侵犯消 ...

Core Points - The Xuzhou market supervision department aims to enhance consumer protection by focusing on issues that significantly impact public welfare and safety, emphasizing strict enforcement against various illegal activities in the consumer sector [2] Group 1: Case Summaries - Case 1: A dental clinic in Xuzhou was fined 30,000 yuan for false advertising, including misleading qualifications of doctors not practicing at the clinic [3] - Case 2: A seller in Suining was penalized for selling 531 bottles of counterfeit liquor, with a total illegal revenue of 83,724.04 yuan and illegal gains of 30,807.36 yuan, resulting in a fine of 10,000 yuan [4] - Case 3: A cosmetics store in Jiawang was fined 20,000 yuan for selling prohibited food products, specifically capsules containing banned substances, with a total sales amount of 400 yuan [5] - Case 4: A trading company in Gulou was fined 40,000 yuan for misleading consumers by using the Li Ning brand logo without authorization, creating confusion about its relationship with the brand [6] - Case 5: A food store in Yunlong was fined 30,000 yuan for false advertising targeting elderly consumers, lacking scientific evidence for its claims about the benefits of its products [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][34]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with October CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [4][5]. - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 2.82% compared to a decrease of 0.18% for the index [5][6]. - The industry is characterized by a significant decline in overall performance for the liquor sector, but there are signs of demand recovery as policy pressures ease and consumption policies are implemented [4][5]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor companies reported a significant decline in third-quarter performance, entering a rapid clearing phase, but demand is expected to show weak recovery due to easing policy pressures [4]. - The top liquor companies are increasing dividend payouts, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4]. - The e-commerce channel for liquor sales has shown strong growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with notable increases in sales for major brands [5]. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods segment is focusing on high-growth areas, with some categories still benefiting from new products and channels, leading to potential valuation premiums for scarce growth targets [4]. - Companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong growth trends [4]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's sub-segments have shown varied performance, with pre-processed foods leading gains at +6.93%, while soft drinks lagged at -0.23% [5][10]. - The top-performing stocks in the food and beverage sector include Huanlejia (+43.19%) and Sanyuan Shares (+31.79%) [5][12]. Economic Indicators - October's macroeconomic data supports a trend of marginal improvement in consumer spending, with retail sales growing by 2.9% year-on-year and dining revenue increasing by 3.8% [5]. - The overall consumer goods market is showing positive signs, supported by a stable service sector PMI [5].

Core Insights - The city of Deyang is actively promoting its brand and products in Beijing through a series of events, showcasing its diverse offerings from traditional cuisine to high-end manufacturing [6][7][8] - The "Deyang Good Goods" market attracted many visitors, featuring over 700 products from 67 local enterprises, emphasizing cultural experiences and local flavors [7][8] - Deyang aims to leverage its promotional activities to foster long-term cooperation with Beijing, focusing on product development, brand management, and channel construction [8] Group 1: Cultural and Economic Promotion - The "Deyang Good Goods" market included nine exhibition areas, highlighting local specialties and cultural heritage, such as the Sanxingdui cultural exhibition [7][8] - The market's strategy involved sensory engagement, allowing visitors to taste and experience Deyang's culinary offerings, thereby bridging cultural gaps [7] - Deyang products are increasingly entering the Beijing market, with local brands gaining popularity among younger consumers [7] Group 2: Industrial Collaboration - The Deyang Aerospace and Drone Industry Chain Collaborative Development Conference marked the establishment of the Beijing-Jin-Cheng-Deyang Aviation Industry Alliance, focusing on low-altitude economy collaboration [9][10] - The alliance aims to enhance cooperation in information technology and software development, building on previous successful initiatives in the aviation sector [9][10] - Deyang has seen significant growth in its aerospace sector, with 23 representative enterprises generating over 5 billion yuan in output value [10] Group 3: Investment and Strategic Development - Deyang's promotional activities in Beijing included the signing of 18 investment projects and 39 projects with a total investment scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, targeting key industries such as energy equipment and oil extraction [11][12] - The city is strategically positioning itself to attract investment from advanced regions like Beijing, aiming to integrate into national development strategies [12] - Deyang's collaboration with Beijing has led to successful technology transfers and the establishment of a technology industry base, enhancing its industrial capabilities [12]

Core Insights - The event "Farmhouse Fun for All" aims to promote rural revitalization and urban-rural integration in the Chengdu metropolitan area by showcasing quality rural projects and tourism routes [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the Sichuan Provincial Office for Promoting the Chengdu-Deyang-Meishan-Ziyang Urban Integration Development and took place in Beijing [1] - It featured rural property transactions, culinary competitions, and cultural tourism promotions, presenting 676 quality rural projects and 20 boutique tourism routes [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The event highlighted 388 key rural projects in the Chengdu metropolitan area with a transaction scale of 49.84 billion, while the national rural property project opportunity list included 676 projects totaling 86.08 billion [3] - The projects cover various sectors, including rural tourism, ecological agriculture, and diverse asset resources [3] Group 3: Culinary and Cultural Exchange - The culinary competition showcased the essence of Sichuan cuisine, with 12 teams competing in three rounds, emphasizing the cultural integration aspect of the event [4] - The competition not only highlighted culinary skills but also served as a platform for cultural exchange, allowing attendees to experience local customs [4] Group 4: Tourism Development - The release of 20 seasonal tourism routes connected 132 attractions and 258 farmhouses, catering to diverse seasonal travel needs [5] - The initiative aims to boost consumption and support rural revitalization through coordinated development of regional cultural tourism [5] Group 5: Product Showcase - The event featured a display of local agricultural products and wines from the Chengdu metropolitan area, showcasing geographical indicators and intangible cultural heritage items [6] - This initiative aims to enhance the visibility of local products and create a bridge for rural products to reach broader markets [6] Group 6: Future Prospects - The event is seen as a step towards deepening urban integration and attracting talent, capital, and technology to rural areas, promoting sustainable rural revitalization [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market atmosphere during the "Double Festival" is relatively flat, with a significant reduction in the traditional "peak season effect" [1][2] Sales and Pricing - Overall sales of liquor are expected to decline by 20%-30% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, aligning with pre-festival expectations [2] - Terminal sales showed a mild month-on-month recovery in September, but remain under pressure; wholesale prices have decreased year-on-year, leading to a contraction in channel profits [1][2] - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing signs of recovery in pricing [5][7] Inventory and Channel Dynamics - Distributors are facing increased inventory levels due to sluggish sales in Q2 2025, with pre-festival stocking leading to a temporary rise in inventory [1][2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory during the festival season, it is expected that real estate liquor distributors will still hold high inventory levels [1][2] Regional Performance - There is a notable regional differentiation in sales performance, with high-end brands and regional leaders showing resilience, while mass-market products face challenges [3][4] - In Jiangsu, urban banquet sales are stable, while rural markets show weakness; in Henan, the mass-market price segment is becoming the main sales driver [3] - In Sichuan, demand for mid-range products is under pressure in urban areas, while county markets show stable performance for products priced between 300-500 yuan [3] Consumer Behavior - The consumption trend is shifting towards rationality, with stable performance in essential consumption scenarios like banquets and family gatherings, while business and government consumption remains weak [4] - The 100-yuan price segment is becoming the main sales driver, with high-cost performance products gaining popularity in regions like Henan and Shandong [6] Investment Recommendations - The company suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sentiment in the liquor sector may see a recovery [7] - Specific stocks to watch include those with strong elasticity in policy expectations and consumer recovery, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].