Core Insights - Maoming, located in Guangdong Province, is recognized for its significant contributions to the lychee and petrochemical industries, with a projected lychee production of over 620,000 tons by 2025 and a total output value of the petrochemical sector stabilizing around 180 billion yuan [2][6][9]. Economic Development - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Maoming's economic total has surpassed 400 billion yuan, ranking first in the western part of Guangdong, with 290 new projects worth over 100 million yuan introduced [3]. - The urbanization rate of the permanent population has increased by 4.55 percentage points from 2020 to 2024, the highest in the province [3]. Agricultural Innovation - Maoming has developed a "frozen dormancy" technology for lychees, allowing for a stable supply of raw materials year-round and establishing the largest lychee puree processing base in the country [5]. - The local government has shifted from traditional selling methods to innovative models, increasing the value of lychees by over 30% and achieving a 15% higher price through e-commerce channels [5][6]. Tourism and Cultural Integration - The city is leveraging its agricultural resources to create tourism experiences, attracting over 5 million visitors annually through initiatives like the "520 I Love Lychee" cultural tourism IP [6]. - The integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism is seen as a core strategy for rural value enhancement, with various themed service areas and demonstration villages established [6]. Industrial Diversification - To address the dominance of the petrochemical industry, Maoming is promoting a "five-chain co-construction" strategy, focusing on upgrading petrochemical processes and developing new energy and materials sectors [7][9]. - Significant investments are being made in projects such as the 30 billion yuan petrochemical upgrade, which is expected to increase chemical product output by over 2 million tons annually [9]. Technological Advancements - The city has seen a 56.9% increase in the number of national high-tech enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with substantial growth in high-tech manufacturing and new energy sectors [10]. - Maoming is actively pursuing emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, with annual growth rates of 46.9% in high-tech manufacturing investments from 2021 to 2024 [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the establishment of a new company, Sinopec Shengli (Dongying) Petrochemical Co., Ltd., which is fully owned by Sinopec [1] - The registered capital of the new company is 10 million yuan, indicating a significant investment in the petrochemical sector [1] - The business scope of the company includes lubricating oil sales, petroleum product manufacturing and sales, chemical product production and sales, instrument repair, and metrology technical services [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to clear short-term support from the oil supply side [2][3]. Core Insights - OPEC+ continues to pause production increases, with a focus on compensating for overproduction since January 2024, which strengthens short-term supply support [2][3]. - The upstream sector is experiencing rising oil prices, while day rates for self-elevating drilling rigs are declining, indicating a mixed outlook for drilling services [2][13]. - The refining sector shows a decrease in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are increasing, suggesting a potential improvement in refining profitability [2][47]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a decline in PTA profitability but an increase in polyester filament profitability, indicating a need for close monitoring of demand changes [2][10]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.34 per barrel, up 4.26% week-on-week, while WTI futures rose 3.14% to $59.12 per barrel [13]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 3% lower than the five-year average [14]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 544, down 2 rigs from the previous week and down 40 rigs year-on-year [27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $11.04 per barrel, down $4.15 from the previous week [49]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread increased to $15.4 per barrel, up $1.3 from the previous week, but still below the historical average of $24.5 per barrel [52]. - The olefin sector shows a positive trend with an increase in the ethylene-crude oil spread, indicating potential profitability improvements [57]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 5069.25 CNY per ton, down 0.75% week-on-week [2]. - The polyester filament POY spread increased to 905 CNY per ton, up 17 CNY from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in profitability [2][10]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new capacity comes online [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and demand conditions [10]. - It suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which may benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. - The upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [10].

冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落2.0个百分点至25.4%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。 据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨， 减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌3个百分点至17%，受到资金和天 气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇停产，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少20.05%至21.03万吨，处于中 性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地 缘政治局势动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委 内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交 3000万至5000万桶石油，美国能源部长赖特宣称，美国将"无限期"地控制委内瑞拉石油销售，这将影响国内沥青 的生产和成本，关注国内炼厂原料短缺情况。本周华东主力炼厂间歇复产，但山东胜星石化、东明石化停产，沥青 开工维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Maohua Shihua (000637) has shown a decline in price and mixed capital flow trends, indicating potential challenges in its financial performance and market perception [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 12, 2026, Maohua Shihua's stock closed at 4.35 yuan, down 0.68% with a turnover rate of 4.34% and a trading volume of 158,400 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 68.7484 million yuan [1]. - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced fluctuations, with a peak closing price of 4.38 yuan on January 9, 2026, reflecting a 2.58% increase, followed by a decline to 4.20 yuan on January 7, 2026, which was a 3.23% decrease [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow Analysis - On January 12, 2026, the net outflow of main funds was 245,900 yuan, accounting for 0.36% of the total transaction amount, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 768,140 yuan, representing 11.17% of the total [1]. - The data from January 9, 2026, indicated a significant net outflow of main funds at 3.6067 million yuan, with retail funds showing a minor net inflow of 366,900 yuan [2]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Industry Comparison - Maohua Shihua's total market capitalization is 2.261 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 658 million yuan, and a net profit of -93.7306 million yuan, indicating a challenging financial position compared to the industry average [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stands at -18.1, while the industry average is 36.03, and the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 4.08 compared to the industry average of 2.58 [3]. - The gross margin for Maohua Shihua is 2.51%, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.66%, and the net margin is -4.55%, contrasting with the industry average of 4.47% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The primary investment opportunity identified is in resource commodities, particularly precious metals, which have shown strong performance in terms of returns and Sharpe ratios since November of last year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Precious metals like silver, copper, and gold have led global asset performance, with a significant acceleration in their market activity observed in the past few weeks [1]. - The market is currently pricing in a medium to long-term supply-demand imbalance and expectations of a weaker dollar, with short-term catalysts being the anticipated easing of monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. - The Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program introduced in December is believed to have a more substantial impact on liquidity than initially recognized, contributing to a new bullish trend in commodities [1]. Group 2: Comparative Asset Analysis - Other major asset classes face specific concerns: U.S. equities are at risk of over-investment due to AI capital expenditures diverging from returns on invested capital; European equities are hindered by economic weakness and slow fiscal policy implementation; Japanese equities struggle with conflicting monetary and fiscal policies; emerging markets are affected by tariff uncertainties and a slowing weak dollar narrative [2]. - In the bond market, increased government debt issuance due to fiscal expansion is expected to suppress bond prices, while oil prices lack upward momentum due to an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, liquidity improvements and expectations of monetary easing are driving commodity price increases, with an estimated $600 billion liquidity boost expected from RMP and TGA releases [3]. - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts and even a return to quantitative easing, although this is contingent on economic data trends [3]. - Mid-term demand for resources is expected to grow significantly, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, with copper demand projected to increase by over 20% by 2030 compared to 2024 levels [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - A prolonged weak dollar environment is anticipated, which will support commodity prices as the U.S. economic growth potential faces constraints [5]. - Geopolitical tensions are expected to exacerbate resource competition, leading to supply-side disruptions as countries increase their strategic reserves of various metals [5].

摘要：【图】2025年9月辽宁省原油产量数据分析 2025年9月原油产量统计： 2025年1-9月原油产量统计： 原油产量：715.1 万吨 同比增长：-0.3% 增速较上一年同期变化：高3.4个百分点 原油产量：77.7 万吨 同比增长：3.8% 增速较上一年同期变化：高10.0个百分点 据统计，2025年9月辽宁省规模以上工业企业原油产量与上年同期相比增长了3.8%，达77.7万吨，增速 较上一年同期高10.0个百分点，增速较同期全国低0.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业原油产量 1777.5万吨的比重为4.4%。 详见下图： 图2：辽宁省原油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：辽宁省原油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油市场调研与发展前景 化工发展现状及前景预测 日化市场调研及发展趋势 润滑油行业监测及发展趋势 汽油未来发展趋势预测 柴油现状及发展前景 橡胶发展前景趋势分析 塑料的现状和发展趋势 化妆品行业现状与发展趋势清洁护肤市场现状及前景分析 据统计，2 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, with 16 consecutive trading days of gains, surpassing the 4100-point mark, marking a ten-year high [1] - The current rise in A-shares is attributed to the systematic enhancement of the pricing power of RMB assets against the backdrop of a global liquidity restructuring [1][2] - The article analyzes the market dynamics from three dimensions: cross-border capital flow, recovery of the real economy, and asset valuation reconstruction [1] Group 2 - The change in global liquidity is driven by the anticipated personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a new cycle of global monetary policy [2] - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman and the criticism of current monetary policy processes suggest an increased influence of the White House on monetary decisions [2] - If aggressive rate cuts or new quantitative easing measures are implemented, it could create strategic opportunities for RMB assets [2] Group 3 - The reversal of cross-border capital flows is indicated by the RMB entering a positive appreciation cycle, driven by expectations of currency strengthening [3] - The current capital outflow has reached approximately 10 trillion yuan, but there remains about 16 trillion yuan in unconverted funds that could return to the market [3] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as a natural outcome of China's industrial maturity, reflecting an increase in pricing power in global trade [4] Group 4 - The recovery of cash flow statements and balance sheets in the real economy is underway, aided by the appreciation of the RMB [5] - The easing of capital outflow pressures and improved profitability in the real sector are contributing to a positive shift in cash flow dynamics [5][6] - The central bank is expected to introduce localized quantitative easing policies to support debt resolution processes by 2026 [6] Group 5 - The macroeconomic indicators show signs of mild recovery, with GDP growth reaching 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, supporting the A-share market's valuation [8] - The inventory cycle has shifted from passive destocking to active restocking, indicating improved corporate profit expectations [8] - The overall economic environment is conducive to a solid foundation for A-share valuation, with rising consumer demand and easing cost pressures for industrial enterprises [8] Group 6 - The influx of incremental funds into the A-share market is evident, with insurance capital increasing its direct investment in stocks to 3.6 trillion yuan by Q3 2025 [9] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to further enhance liquidity in the market, leading to increased capital inflows [9] - The value of Chinese manufacturing assets is being reassessed globally, as the country transitions towards high-end manufacturing and gains recognition in various sectors [10] Group 7 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as import-dependent industries and those with high dollar liabilities [11] - Key areas for investment include advanced manufacturing sectors like brain-machine interfaces and commercial aerospace, which represent the future direction of China's economy [12] - Stable income-generating assets, such as banks and insurance companies, are expected to play a crucial role in the economic recovery process [12] Group 8 - The current market conditions suggest that the A-share market's rise above 4100 points is not a temporary peak but a new starting point for the revaluation of RMB assets [13] - The year 2026 is anticipated to see stronger fiscal policies and coordinated monetary measures that will support the stock market [13] - The consensus on the revaluation of Chinese assets is forming, driven by global supply chain restructuring and energy transitions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.09%, and the total trading volume exceeding 3.64 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1]. Market Performance - The three major indices opened strong and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.82% [1]. - Over 4,100 stocks in the market saw an increase in value [1]. Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed robust performance, with companies like China Satellite and Aerospace Electronics hitting the daily limit [1]. - Brain-computer interface concept stocks surged, with Nanjing Panda achieving five consecutive daily limits [1]. - Controlled nuclear fusion concept stocks were active, with Falunsheng hitting the daily limit and Haheng Huaton rising over 11% [1]. - Sectors such as digital media, military electronics, software services, and cloud services had significant gains [1]. - Conversely, sectors like insurance, petrochemicals, and coal experienced declines [1].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The forecast for the US GDP growth in 2026 has been raised to 2.6%, up from a previous estimate of 2.3%, driven by factors including the upcoming midterm elections and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [2][3] - The report highlights a potential rebound in inflation in the second half of 2026, despite a slight downward adjustment in inflation predictions due to various economic factors [2][3] - Structural issues in the US economy, such as asset price inflation and income inequality, are expected to worsen, indicating a "K-shaped" recovery [2][3] Group 2: Real Estate Policies - The Trump administration has announced a series of real estate policies aimed at stimulating demand, including a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities purchase plan and restrictions on large institutional investors in the single-family housing market [3][4] - These measures are expected to provide marginal support to the real estate market but may not effectively address housing affordability issues [3][4] Group 3: Employment Data - In December, the US added 50,000 non-farm jobs, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 70,000, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.4% [5] - The labor participation rate declined to 62.4%, while hourly wage growth showed a slight increase, indicating a mixed employment landscape [5] Group 4: Sector Performance - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a "spring rally," with a focus on sectors such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals for potential investment opportunities [7] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a combination of factors, including improved liquidity and upward revisions in profit expectations [8] Group 5: REITs Market - Recent policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and stock exchanges are expected to enhance the REITs market, promoting high-quality development amid OCI disturbances [22] - The report indicates that the REITs market may experience improved sentiment and quality as it enters a new phase of development [22] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry - The report emphasizes the growing demand for cleanroom facilities in the semiconductor industry, driven by increased capital expenditure from global tech giants [23] - The cleanroom engineering services sector is expected to see a rise in order rates, benefiting from the demand for advanced manufacturing processes [23]