本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整 体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百 分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9 位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅 为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 主要观点： 行业周观点 2025年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势，推荐关注合成生物学、农药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃 化工、COC聚合物、MDI等行业: （1）合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下，化石基材料或在局部面临颠覆性冲击，低耗 能的产品或产业有望获得更长成长窗口。对于传统化工企业而言，未来的竞争在于能耗和碳税的成本， 优秀的传统化工企业会利用绿色能源代替方案、一体化和规模化优势来降低能耗成本，亦或新增产能转 移至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [3] Core Views - The macroeconomic data indicates a decline in the PMI to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The main raw material purchasing price index also decreased by 0.7 percentage points [5][27] - The report highlights the need for the chemical industry to focus on high-end, green, intelligent, and circular development as emphasized in the recent policy recommendations from the Communist Party of China [5][51] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors such as coal chemical, fluorochemical, phosphate and phosphorus chemical, and potassium fertilizer [5][61] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Data - The October PMI is at 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month. The main raw material purchasing price index is at 52.5%, down 0.7 percentage points [27] - The PPI for September shows a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5][27] - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year decline of 5.6% in September, widening from the previous month [27] Downstream Industry Performance - In September, the export value of textile yarns and fabrics increased by 6.4% year-on-year, while the export value of household appliances decreased by 9.6% [42] - The production of new energy vehicles decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while automobile production increased by 3.2% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the SW coal chemical, SW fluorochemical, SW phosphate and phosphorus chemical, and SW potassium fertilizer sectors for potential investment opportunities [61][62] - Recommended ETF: Penghua CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF (159870.SZ) [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1][9]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.93 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 2.50% compared to a decrease of 0.43% for the CSI 300 [3][15]. - Key sub-industries showing significant gains include potassium fertilizer (10.66%), fluorochemicals (7.24%), phosphorus fertilizer and phosphorus chemicals (6.60%), organic silicon (5.85%), and non-metallic materials III (3.75%) [16][19]. - The report highlights a positive trend in the vitamin market, with prices for Vitamin A and E increasing due to proactive price hikes by major producers, leading to heightened market activity [6][9]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The basic chemical index increased by 2.50% over the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 index [15]. - The top-performing sub-industries included potassium fertilizer, fluorochemicals, and phosphorus chemicals [16]. Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (Shandong) at 57.14%, NYMEX natural gas at 24.85%, concentrated nitric acid at 9.68%, and domestic vitamins E and A at 8.70% and 6.67% respectively [24][28]. - The products with the largest weekly price declines included POM (injection) at -14.06%, international butadiene at -11.64%, and coal tar at -7.29% [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: refrigerants, chemical fibers, tire manufacturing, and agricultural chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [9][45]. - Notable companies to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., and Wanhu Chemical among others [9][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 28, the central bank increased net open - market injections, improving the capital situation to an overall balanced and stable state. After the positive news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was realized, the bond market was generally weak with a slight upward movement in the 10 - year treasury bond yield. The convertible bond market declined following the stock market, and most individual bonds fell. Overseas, yields of US Treasury bonds across various tenors generally decreased, while the 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The full text of the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released on October 28, setting major goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, such as maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and achieving breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas. It also proposed measures for fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes the role of active fiscal policies, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and promoting a more domestic - demand - led and consumption - driven economic development model [5] - China and ASEAN signed the 3.0 - version upgrade protocol of the free - trade area on October 28, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [7] 3.1.2 International News - ADP will start releasing weekly preliminary estimates of private - sector employment data on a weekly basis, providing a four - week moving average of private - sector employment changes. The existing monthly report will still be released as usual [8][9] 3.1.3 Commodities - On October 28, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI December crude futures down 1.89% and Brent December crude futures down 1.86%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.25%, and NYMEX natural gas prices dropped 4.30% [10] 3.2 Capital Situation 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On October 28, the central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 315.8 billion yuan [12] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On October 28, the central bank's increased net open - market injections improved the capital situation. DR001 rose 1.58bp to 1.469%, and DR007 fell 2.38bp to 1.558% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - After the news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was confirmed on October 28, the bond market was generally weak. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 1.80bp to 1.813%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 rose 1.75bp to 1.8805% [16] - There were several bond - issuing tenders on October 28, with details such as issuance scale, winning bid yields, and multiples provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On October 28, the trading price of "H0 Baolong 04" deviated by over 10%, rising over 37% [18] - Credit - related events include the suspension of trading of 6 corporate bonds of Rongxin Group, the ineffective convening of the "20 Xingfu 01" bondholder meeting of Huaxia Holdings, and the disclosure of overdue debts of Sunshine City [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On October 28, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.22%, 0.44%, and 0.15% respectively. The convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices down 0.24%, 0.30%, and 0.16% respectively [20] - There were rating - related events such as the withdrawal of Jiangsu Zhongxing's "BBB+" international long - term issuer rating and financial - strength rating events of other companies. Some companies also announced losses, overdue reports, and other events [22] - Upcoming events include the listing of Funeng Convertible Bonds, the possible trigger of the conversion - price downward - adjustment condition for Juxing Convertible Bonds, and announcements regarding early redemption of some convertible bonds [28] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On October 28, except for the 3 - year US Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of US Treasury bonds across other tenors generally decreased. The 2 - year yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 2bp to 3.99% [24] - The 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged on October 28 [27] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds as of the close on October 28 are presented, including the top 10 daily gainers and losers [30]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the third-quarter earnings season, undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the increasing significance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][15] - It highlights the potential for sustained high oil prices, the ongoing recovery in the oil and gas exploration sector, and the growth opportunities in new materials, particularly in semiconductor and OLED materials [15][20] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of October 20-26, 2025, 24 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 43 experienced declines, and 33 remained stable. The average price of 28% of products increased month-on-month, while 56% decreased [10][15] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $61.50 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.88%, and Brent crude at $65.94 per barrel, up 7.59% [10][15] - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate for battery-grade reached 75,700.00 CNY/ton, a 3.46% increase from October 1 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the third-quarter earnings, undervalued industry leaders, and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries. It also emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [15] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy initiatives [15][20] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the new materials and electronic materials sectors [15][20]

Group 1: Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and the focus on new materials and autonomous industrial chains, highlighting high-quality development as a priority [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace, potentially creating several trillion-level markets [2] - The report indicates that the chemical new materials industry is entering a period of accelerated domestic substitution, with opportunities in semiconductor materials and high-end engineering plastics [2] Group 2: Market Performance - During the week of October 20-24, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 3.24%, while the Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index increased by 4.33%, outperforming the market by 1.09 percentage points [3] - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index rose by 2.14%, underperforming the market by 1.10 percentage points, with the oilfield services and other petrochemical sectors showing the highest gains [3] Group 3: Price Movements - Key price increases for the week included hydrochloric acid (19.05%), NYMEX natural gas (7.42%), and sulfur (6.57%), while significant price drops were seen in R22 (-21.69%) and propylene (-6.62%) [4][5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on sectors with elastic and advantageous products, such as organic silicon and membrane materials [5] - The report suggests that domestic chemical enterprises are rapidly filling gaps in the international supply chain, driven by cost advantages and technological advancements [5] Group 5: Consumer Trends and Technological Development - New consumer trends are driving demand for health additives and sugar substitutes, with the food additive industry expected to expand due to supportive regulations [6] - The overall self-sufficiency rate of China's chemical new materials is about 56%, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic substitution in sectors like semiconductor materials and high-end additives [6]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 5.83% from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking 26th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.36 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.12 percentage points [2][3] Key Trends and Recommendations - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2] - Synthetic biology is anticipated to reach a pivotal moment, driven by energy structure adjustments, with traditional chemical companies needing to adapt to energy consumption and carbon tax costs [2] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from markets like Southeast Asia [3] - Electronic specialty gases are critical for the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies poised to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end production capacity [4] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane, which are more cost-effective and environmentally friendly [5] - The industrialization of COC/COP materials is accelerating in China, driven by domestic production capabilities and the need for supply chain security [6] - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major suppliers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [7][8] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers, making it a resilient chemical product [9] Price Tracking - Significant price increases were noted for liquid chlorine (553.33%), sulfur (8.80%), and acrylic acid (3.68%), while notable declines were seen in nitrile rubber (-33.13%) and NYMEX natural gas futures (-7.98%) [10] - A total of 165 chemical enterprises reported production capacity impacts, with 8 new maintenance activities and 4 restarts recorded [11]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed price movements, with 17 products increasing in price, 52 decreasing, and 31 remaining stable during the week of October 13-19. The report highlights the need to focus on quarterly earnings, undervalued industry leaders, and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [1][2][3]. Industry Dynamics - During the week of October 13-19, among 100 tracked chemical products, 17 saw price increases, 52 saw decreases, and 31 remained stable. Specifically, 29% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 56% experienced a decrease, and 15% remained unchanged [3]. - The products with the highest weekly price increases included sulfur (Zhejiang Juhua 98%), vinyl acetate (East China), propylene oxide (East China), hydrochloric acid (Yangtze River Delta 31%), and pure MDI (East China). Conversely, the largest price decreases were seen in WTI crude oil, acetone (East China), NYMEX natural gas, naphtha (Singapore), and vitamin E [3]. Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell during the week, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.54 per barrel, a weekly decline of 2.31%, and Brent crude oil futures at $61.29 per barrel, also down 2.30%. The report notes geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and India's commitment to halt oil purchases from Russia [4]. - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.636 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.7 thousand barrels from the previous week and up 13.6% year-on-year. However, U.S. oil demand decreased to an average of 19.726 million barrels per day, down 226.4 thousand barrels from the previous week [4]. - EIA forecasts indicate that Brent crude prices may drop from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025 to $52 per barrel in 2026 due to oversupply [4]. Specific Chemical Products - Methionine prices decreased, with an average price of 21.15 yuan/kg on October 17, down 0.94% week-on-week and 2.76% month-on-month. Production remained stable at 14,700 tons, with a utilization rate of 71.46% [6]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices increased, with an average price of 75,000 yuan/ton on October 19, up 7.14% week-on-week and 33.93% month-on-month. Production levels are high, and demand from electrolyte manufacturers is strong [7]. Investment Recommendations - As of October 17, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.76, at the 73.39% historical percentile, while the P/B ratio is 2.16, at the 49.29% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 11.53, at the 24.01% historical percentile, and the P/B ratio is 1.14, at the 19.57% historical percentile [8]. - Investment focus for October includes quarterly earnings, undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [2][8]. - Long-term investment themes include sustained high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and the growth potential in new materials [9]. Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and various technology and chemical firms [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]