1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

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Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight decline in "buying" sentiment last week, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices remaining strong, rising over 6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating concentrated capital allocation in sectors like new energy batteries, energy storage, and semiconductors [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Index and ChiNext Index increased by 1.06% and 1.96% respectively, reflecting stability in large-cap stocks supported by heavyweight stocks [2] Industry Performance - The average decline of Wind's first-level industry indices was 0.24%, with 60% of the Wind Top 100 concept indices showing positive returns. The power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed well, increasing by 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51% respectively [2][10] - Conversely, sectors such as retail, comprehensive services, and social services saw significant declines, with drops of 4.32%, 4.61%, and 5.92% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 56 funds were issued last week, including 30 equity funds, 13 mixed funds, 6 bond funds, 1 QDII fund, and 6 FOF funds, with a total issuance of 36.607 billion units [3][15] Global Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a pullback, with concerns over high valuations in tech stocks affecting US markets. European markets also weakened, influenced by policy investigations in the healthcare sector and increasing fiscal sustainability concerns [4] - In Asia, the Nikkei 225 and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index rose, while the Korean Composite Index and India's SENSEX30 fell due to geopolitical tensions and weak domestic economic data [4] Domestic Bond Market - The domestic bond market saw a slight decline in government bond futures, indicating a warming expectation for economic recovery. The convertible bond index rose by 0.94%, showing relative stability in the convertible bond market [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints On September 3, the overall liquidity was balanced and slightly loose; the stock market decline boosted the bond market; the convertible bond market stopped falling and closed higher, with most convertible bond issues rising; yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally declined, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1]. Section Summaries 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market. Since May, over 1.02 trillion yuan of science - innovation bonds have been issued. The 2nd private enterprise bond financing training class was held in Wuxi. As of June 30, 2025, the total management scale of 460 mother funds was 3484.5 billion yuan, a 23.7% decrease from the end of 2024 [3][4]. - **International News**: In July, U.S. JOLTS job openings dropped to a 10 - month low, with significant decreases in healthcare, retail, and leisure & hospitality sectors. The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed fell to 1, hovering at the lowest level since 2021. Recruitment increased by 41,000 to 5.308 million, and layoffs reached the highest level since September last year [6]. - **Commodities**: On September 3, WTI October crude oil futures fell 2.47% to $63.97 per barrel, Brent November crude oil futures fell 2.23% to $67.60 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3621.80 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 2.71% to $3.071 per ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On September 3, the central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 150.8 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On September 3, the overall liquidity was balanced and slightly loose. DR001 decreased by 0.01bp to 1.314%, and DR007 increased by 0.40bp to 1.442% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yields**: On September 3, the bond market strengthened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 decreased by 2.00bp to 1.7475%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 decreased by 2.15bp to 1.8460% [13]. - **Bond Tenders**: Details of the issuance scale, winning yields, and other information of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债54 were provided [14]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 3, 5 industrial bonds had a price deviation of over 10%, including "15 宏图 MTN001" down over 97% and "H9 龙控 01" up over 100% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies had events such as bank loan defaults, subsidiary bankruptcies, and cancellation of bond issuances [15]. - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: - **Equity Market**: On September 3, the A - share market showed divergence. The ChiNext Index rose 0.95%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16% and 0.65% respectively. The full - day trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan [16]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: On September 3, the convertible bond market stopped falling and closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.23%, and 0.28% respectively. The trading volume was 85.809 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.905 billion yuan from the previous trading day [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On September 3, "伟 22 转债" announced no downward revision of the conversion price, and "宏辉转债" announced early redemption, among other announcements [20]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: On September 3, yields on U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally declined. The 2 - year yield decreased by 5bp to 3.61%, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 6bp to 4.22%. The 2/10 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 61bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 121bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate decreased by 1bp to 2.40% [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On September 3, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally declined. For example, the German 10 - year yield decreased by 5bp to 2.74% [24]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on September 3 were presented, including the daily changes, credit entities, and other information of multiple bonds [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On September 2, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose; the bond market oscillated within a narrow range; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, and most convertible bond issues fell; yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The "Declaration of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Further Strengthening Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation" was released, with member states planning to strengthen cooperation in areas such as policy communication, AI research, and resource integration [3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued a notice on tax policies for the operation and management of state-owned equity and cash proceeds transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income [4]. - The central bank announced liquidity injection data for August, with net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, net PSL withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and net open - market repurchase injection of 300 billion yuan [4]. - The National Inter - bank Funding Center and the Shanghai Clearing House optimized the general repurchase trading and clearing mechanism in the inter - bank bond market, expanding the scope of eligible collateral [5]. (2) International News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. New orders expanded, while output declined, and employment remained weak [6]. (3) Commodities - International crude oil and natural gas prices rose. WTI October crude futures rose 2.47% to $65.59/barrel, Brent November crude futures rose 1.45% to $69.14/barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 2.42% to $3601/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.27% to $2.990/ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations On September 2, the central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate. With 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal of funds was 150.1 billion yuan [9]. (2) Funding Rates Despite two consecutive days of net withdrawal by the central bank, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose. DR001 rose 0.19bp to 1.314%, and DR007 fell 0.79bp to 1.438% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - Yields on 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 0.10bp to 1.7675%, and yields on 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 fell 0.25bp to 1.8675% [13]. - There were no Treasury or CDB bond issuances on that day [14]. (2) Credit Bonds - Three industrial bonds and one urban investment bond had trading price deviations of over 10%. "H1 碧地 02" fell over 80%, "H1 碧地 01" fell over 75%, "H1 龙控 01" fell over 34%, and "20 永兴债 01" fell over 19% [15][16]. - Multiple credit events occurred, including debt restructuring of Kaisa Group, legal disputes of Rongqiao Group, cancellation of bond issuances by some companies, rating adjustments of some companies, and bankruptcy reorganization of some subsidiaries [18]. 4. Equity and Convertible Bond Market (1) Equity and Convertible Bond Indices - The three major A - share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.45%, 2.14%, and 2.85% respectively, and the total trading volume was 2.91 trillion yuan. Most Shenwan primary industries declined [19]. - The main convertible bond indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.88%, 0.71%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 105.714 billion yuan, an increase of 14.611 billion yuan from the previous trading day [19]. (2) Convertible Bond Tracking - Some convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, including Huayang Convertible Bond's downward adjustment, Baichang Convertible Bond's decision not to adjust, and Zhekuang Convertible Bond's expected trigger of downward adjustment conditions. Some convertible bonds were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [23]. 5. Overseas Bond Market (1) US Bond Market - Yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, with the 2 - year yield up 7bp to 3.69% and the 10 - year yield up 5bp to 4.28%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 62bp, and the spread between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 123bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.41% [24][25][26]. (2) European Bond Market - Yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose, with Germany's up 4bp to 2.79%, France's up 5bp, Italy's up 7bp, Spain's up 5bp, and the UK's up 4bp [27]. (3) Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Some Chinese - issued US dollar bonds had price increases, such as those of the Chinese government, Sunac China, and Country Garden. Some had price decreases, such as those of Agile Group, Lenovo Group, and Pinduoduo [29].

Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 1.11% from August 23 to August 29, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.71%, indicating that the basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 1.60 percentage points, ranking 11th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included nylon (5.68%), rubber additives (5.44%), potassium fertilizer (4.65%), food and feed additives (2.99%), and fluorochemicals (2.99%) [1][2] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were NYMEX natural gas (11.11%), crude phenol (7.12%), niacinamide (5.78%), phenol oil (5.16%), and hydrofluoric acid (5.00%) [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines included liquid chlorine (-75.00%), sodium (-6.78%), coal tar (-4.17%), anthracene oil (-4.11%), and lithium carbonate (industrial grade) (-4.09%) [3] Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the basic chemical sector achieved operating revenue of 1,123.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.72 billion yuan, up 4.43% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2025, the sector reported operating revenue of 587.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.80% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.38%, with a net profit of 35.72 billion yuan, down 2.66% year-on-year but up 5.03% quarter-on-quarter, indicating an improving trend in quarterly profitability [4] Company Performance Highlights - In the refrigerant sector, Juhua Co. reported H1 2025 operating revenue of 13.33 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.05 billion yuan, up 145.84% year-on-year [6] - Sanmei Co. achieved H1 2025 operating revenue of 2.83 billion yuan, a 38.58% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 999.5 million yuan, up 159.22% year-on-year [6] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, Yara International reported H1 2025 operating revenue of 2.52 billion yuan, a 48.54% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, up 216.64% year-on-year [7] - Salt Lake Co. reported H1 2025 operating revenue of 6.78 billion yuan, down 6.30% year-on-year, but a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, up 13.69% year-on-year [7] Investment Recommendations - Current investment focus includes the refrigerant sector, with recommendations for companies like Jingshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [9] - The chemical fiber sector is also highlighted, with recommendations for Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [9] - Other recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [9] - The tire sector includes recommendations for Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [9] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, recommended companies include Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [9] - High-quality growth stocks to watch include Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [9] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the phosphate fertilizer export window has opened, and high demand for phosphate fertilizers is expected to continue [1][2] - Phosphate fertilizer exports in 2025 may occur in phases, with the first batch concentrated in the peak period from May to September, and the second batch adjusted based on domestic supply and demand dynamics [1][2] - The total export quota for phosphate fertilizers in 2025 is expected to decrease compared to last year, which may help alleviate domestic overcapacity issues [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, recommending attention to Shengquan Group and Hailide [2] - Shengquan Group benefits from the AI capital investment in the new materials industry, being a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, with expected performance improvements as server shipments increase [2] - Hailide, a leading enterprise in the polyester industrial yarn sector, is expected to benefit from the US tariff conflict due to its overseas factories [2] Group 3 - Frequent chemical safety accidents have raised concerns, with a recent explosion at Youdao Chemical prompting national attention [3] - The incident involved a hazardous chemical process, leading to expectations of nationwide safety inspections in the pesticide industry, which may help improve the industry's overall outlook [3] - Non-compliant production capacity involving dangerous processes may be accelerated for elimination, contributing to a recovery in the pesticide sector [3]