油料日报 | 2025-06-19 美豆优良率小幅下滑，大豆价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4258.00元/吨，较前日变化+11.00元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-78，较前日变化-11，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周二，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘温和上涨，其中基准期约收高0.4%，主要受到原油 价格上涨和未来几周中西部天气不确定性的支撑。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨4.25美分到8.75美分不等，其中7月期 约上涨4.25美分，报收1074美分/蒲;8月期约上涨4.50美分，报收1076.25美分/蒲;11月期约上涨7.25美分，报收1067.75 美分/蒲。6月18日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭 山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It presents data on various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic supply - demand situations and macroeconomic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes are presented for multiple commodities including palm oil, Brent crude, WTI crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, along with their closing prices, previous - day and overnight price changes [1]. - Quotes for multiple currencies are also provided, including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, Argentine peso, and Singapore dollar, along with their latest prices and price changes [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Weather Forecast - The temperature in most major soybean - producing states in the US from June 22 - 26 will be higher than normal, and precipitation will be close to or higher than the median [3]. - There will be sporadic showers in parts of the US Midwest, and field operations in the southern region may be hindered. The temperature will be close to or higher than normal [5]. International Supply - Demand - Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 5.05% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, and exports soared by 25.62% to 1.38 million tons. Short - term production may slow down, and June production is expected to decrease [7][8]. - A private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [8]. - Due to frequent spring rainfall, some soybean fields in Arkansas may not be planted, and re - planting of some soybeans is uncertain [8]. - Brazil's expected soybean exports in June are 14.37 million tons, soybean meal exports are 1.97 million tons, and corn exports are 913,316 tons [8]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from June 9 - 13 was 515.08 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - As of June 15, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/2025 season were 2.74 million tons, soybeans were 13.58 million tons, and rapeseed was 6.91 million tons [9]. - France's 2025 winter barley and rapeseed production is expected to rebound strongly, with rapeseed production reaching 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index declined due to lower freight rates for large vessels [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On June 17, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 17,560 tons, a 55% decrease from the previous trading day [12]. - On June 17, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 219,900 tons, and the operating rate of oil mills was 67.08%, up 5.25% from the previous day [12]. - As of June 17, the port inventory of soybean oil in China was 780,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and soybean meal in China decreased compared to the previous week and the same period last year [12]. - On June 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" remained unchanged, and the average pork price in the agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.7% [13]. 04 Macro News International News - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [15]. - The US NAHB Housing Market Index in June was 32, lower than the expected 36 [15]. - The US industrial production in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, and retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month [15]. - Other US economic indicators such as import price index, red - book retail sales, commercial inventory, API crude oil inventory, and the eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index are also provided [19]. Domestic News - On June 17, the USD/RMB exchange rate was lowered by 43 points [17]. - On June 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 197.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 183.3 billion yuan [17]. 05 Fund Flows - On June 17, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 3.222 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 4.602 billion yuan in the commodity futures market and a net inflow of 1.381 billion yuan in the stock index futures market [21]. - The fund flows of major futures varieties are presented, with positive flows in some commodities like CSI 1000 stock index futures and rapeseed oil, and negative flows in others like gold and copper [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of corn and soybean production in China, particularly focusing on the supply changes and market price trends due to trade disruptions and local agricultural conditions [2]. Research Background - The article emphasizes the need to understand the supply changes of corn and soybeans during their growing season, as they are staple crops in China. It highlights the importance of assessing planting areas, cost changes, and inventory levels among traders and processing enterprises to predict future market prices [2]. Survey Overview - A survey was conducted in Heilongjiang Province involving over 17 participants from various sectors, including spot trading and private equity, to gather insights on the planting and growth conditions of corn and soybeans [5]. Key Findings from the Survey - The processing capacity of a major soybean processing enterprise is 1,000 tons per day, with an annual processing volume of approximately 300,000 tons. The yield from one unit of soybeans is about 80%-80.5% soybean meal and 16%-16.5% soybean oil, with a loss of 3%-4% due to impurities [7]. - Current soybean prices are around 4,100 CNY per ton, with expectations that prices will remain stable in the third quarter. The planting area for soybeans is expected to increase slightly due to supportive policies, despite low profitability [8][10]. - In the Suifenhe area, the average yield for soybeans last year was 360-370 jin per mu, while corn was 1,600-1,700 jin per mu. This year, planting costs have decreased due to lower land rents, with a significant drop in rental prices observed [9]. Market Outlook - The processing enterprise anticipates that soybean prices will fluctuate around 4,100 CNY per ton in the third quarter, with cautious operational plans due to uncertain demand [8]. - The expected opening price for new season soybeans is around 2.05 CNY per jin, but demand may not be sufficient to sustain high prices [10]. - The survey indicates that corn prices may rise due to supply tightening, while soybean prices may follow a high-open, low-close trend similar to last year [10]. Regional Insights - In the Beidahuang area, the planting area for soybeans remains stable, with a focus on high-protein varieties. The average yield for soybeans is reported at 450 jin per mu, with corn yields at 1,800 jin per mu [14][15]. - The planting area for soybeans has increased by 10% in some regions, while corn has decreased by 10%. The overall planting conditions are favorable, with expectations of good yields if weather conditions improve [25][27]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while there are uncertainties regarding soybean prices due to high planting areas and low demand, corn prices are expected to rise due to reduced planting areas and tight inventories. The opening prices for new season soybeans are projected to be around 1.8-1.9 CNY per jin, while corn may reach 0.8-0.85 CNY per jin [27].

农产品日报 | 2025-06-17 苹果产区交易分化，红枣启动环割工作 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7610元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+590，较前一日变动-25；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1990，较前一日变动-25。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场整体交投淡稳，冷库出货氛围一般，询价客户不多，产区新季苹果套袋工作进入后期。 西部产区客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大 果及好果走货一般，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库 内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果 农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5][10][11] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a positive cycle, particularly in beef and dairy markets, with potential upward price movements in 2025 [5][8][10] - The report highlights a generally neutral outlook for soybean supply and demand, with expectations of price stability in the near term [2][28] - The overall supply of corn is tightening, leading to a forecast of moderate price increases [1][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA June report estimates a global corn production increase of 1 million tons (approximately +0.08%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.4 million tons (approximately +0.11%) [1][18] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.94% to 275.24 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.23 percentage points to 21.57% [18][19] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, supported by a tightening supply-demand balance [21][22] Soybeans - The USDA June report indicates that global soybean production for the 25/26 season remains unchanged from May estimates, with a slight increase in total usage by 100,000 tons (approximately +0.02%) [2][28] - The final global ending stocks are projected to increase by 970,000 tons (approximately +0.78%) to 125.3 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [2][29] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain stable at the bottom of the market in the first half of 2025 [30][37] Wheat - The USDA June report forecasts a global wheat production increase of 70,000 tons (approximately +0.01%) for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 1.8 million tons (approximately +0.22%) [3][45] - The final global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 2.97 million tons (approximately -1.12%) to 26.276 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio down by 0.44 percentage points to 32.45% [3][45] - The wheat market is expected to remain in a loose supply-demand balance, with prices likely to stabilize at the bottom [3][45] Sugar - Short-term sugar imports are expected to increase, with market prices likely to remain weak due to ample supply [4][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Brazilian weather and sugar production progress, as well as potential geopolitical risks affecting supply [4][16] Cotton - The report indicates that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes, with a projected decrease in global production and demand [4][18] - The final stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease by 1.16 percentage points to 65.22%, indicating a loose supply-demand balance [4][18] Beef - The report predicts an upward trend in U.S. beef prices for 2026, with a significant reduction in supply expected [5][20] - Domestic beef prices are expected to remain strong despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [5][23] Dairy - The report suggests that the dairy market may experience a reversal in 2025, driven by reduced production and increased overseas consumption [8][25] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to supply constraints and reduced imports [8][27] Pork - The U.S. pork market is expected to see a slight increase in demand, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply growth [8][29] - Domestic breeding stock levels are expected to remain stable, supporting profitability in the pork sector [8][30] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is projected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand expected to improve [9][32] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are expected to weaken, allowing for a gradual recovery in supply [9][32] Eggs - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in egg supply starting in the second half of 2025, with overall supply expected to remain ample [9][36] - Domestic egg prices are projected to face downward pressure due to high supply levels [9][37]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of electricity supply in supporting agricultural development in Jiuquan, Gansu Province, emphasizing the role of the State Grid in ensuring safe and reliable power for agricultural enterprises [1][3][5] - Jiuquan's agricultural enterprises, such as the Gansu Cold Drought Group, have successfully leveraged their geographical advantages and rich agricultural resources to expand their market reach, particularly in cherry tomato production [3][4] - The State Grid Jiuquan Power Supply Company has implemented infrastructure upgrades and provided technical support to enhance power supply capabilities for agricultural parks, thereby facilitating the growth of local agricultural industries [4][5] Group 2 - The company has established a flexible support team to assist in the planning and development of county and township industrial parks, ensuring timely and efficient electricity supply [4][5] - The power supply company aims to enhance service quality and reliability to boost the agricultural product supply chain, contributing to the high-quality development of local economies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "insurance + futures" model has effectively provided risk management solutions for farmers, particularly in the context of price volatility in agricultural products, contributing to sustainable development in the agricultural sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Development and Impact of "Insurance + Futures" - The "insurance + futures" initiative began ten years ago, initially focusing on major agricultural products like cotton and sugar, and has since expanded significantly across various regions [1]. - In Shaanxi's Fuxian County, the program has insured 138,500 acres of apple orchards, covering a production volume of 207,000 tons and benefiting 9,171 households, with an average compensation of nearly 6,000 yuan per household [1][2]. - The program has provided a total insurance amount of 485 million yuan for 30,92 households, effectively mitigating market risks and supporting the high-quality development of the local apple industry [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Growth - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has supported 211 pilot projects across six agricultural products, with a total premium of 1.5 billion yuan and a coverage amount of 34.6 billion yuan [3]. - The average compensation rate stands at approximately 69%, with nearly 1.1 billion yuan paid out in claims, benefiting 760,000 households [3]. - Increased financial support from national and local governments has made the "insurance + futures" model more accessible to small and medium-sized farmers, enhancing agricultural risk management capabilities [5]. Group 3: Future Directions - To further enhance the effectiveness of the "insurance + futures" model, continuous efforts are needed to expand its coverage and improve collaboration among relevant departments [5]. - There is a call for local governments to increase policy support and work in conjunction with futures and insurance institutions to elevate the program's impact [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Insurance + Futures" project for peanuts in Lankao County serves as a strong compensation mechanism for peanut growers facing market price fluctuations, enhancing their confidence in planting [1][2][3] Group 1: Project Overview - The project was initiated in 2021 with the launch of peanut futures, aiming to provide dual protection against price and yield risks for farmers [1] - Since its pilot in 2022, the project has accumulated a total guarantee amount of 1.42 billion yuan and paid out nearly 20 million yuan in claims, covering 140,000 tons of peanuts and benefiting 48,000 farming households [1][2] Group 2: Financial Mechanism - In 2022, the project covered 90,400 acres of peanut planting, providing 160 million yuan in risk protection, with total claims reaching 7.2283 million yuan, benefiting 6,044 households [2] - The project employs a "trigger lock enhanced Asian option" model to improve payout probabilities while reducing option costs, maximizing risk hedging efficiency [2] Group 3: Government Support and Impact - The funding mechanism involves a cost-sharing model with 25% from provincial finance, 22.14% from county finance, and 10% from farmers, lowering the threshold for participation [2] - The project has effectively compensated farmers for losses, especially in the context of adverse weather conditions in 2024 [2] Group 4: Agricultural Development and Innovation - The project promotes the integration of "five good" practices (good land, good seeds, good opportunities, good methods, good systems) to enhance yield and extend the industrial chain into food processing and logistics [2] - The experience from Lankao County has been replicated in other peanut-producing areas in Henan, showcasing a model for financial innovation in rural revitalization [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA's downward revision of the US corn ending stocks estimates for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons is generally positive, but concerns about long - term import pressure remain due to good US corn good - to - excellent ratings and improved Sino - US trade relations. In the domestic market, the corn price is supported by factors such as slow sales in the Northeast, strong restocking demand from some processing enterprises, reduced market grain supply in the North China and Huanghuai regions, and the start of wheat procurement at the minimum purchase price in Henan [8]. - Corn starch prices are relatively strong due to reduced supply pressure from lower industry operating rates and support from firm corn prices, and the industry inventory has slightly declined [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - **Market Review**: This week, the corn futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2378 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA's downward revision of ending stocks estimates is positive, but there are concerns about import pressure. In the domestic market, the Northeast sales slow down, some processing enterprises restock, and the North China and Huanghuai regions see reduced grain supply. The start of wheat procurement at the minimum purchase price in Henan supports the corn market. The recent upward trend has slowed down [10]. Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term participation is recommended [13]. - **Market Review**: Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2703 yuan/ton, an increase of 47 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to tight raw material supply in North China and continuous losses in production, the industry operating rate has dropped to a new low this year. With reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively good, and the inventory has slightly declined [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures July contract fluctuated upward this week, with a total position of 702,413 lots, a decrease of 261,592 lots from last week. The corn starch futures July contract also fluctuated upward, with a total position of 163,117 lots, a decrease of 49,450 lots from last week [20]. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - This week, the net position of the top twenty in corn futures was - 112,968, compared with - 86,788 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions. The net position of the top twenty in starch futures was - 8,482, compared with - 12,459 last week, indicating a decrease in net short positions [27]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 216,285 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 24,237 lots [34]. Spot Price and Basis - As of June 12, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,406.27 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active July contract and the spot average price was 28 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,820 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,940 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable this week. The basis between the July contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 117 yuan/ton [39][43]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 26 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 79 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [49]. Futures Spread - The spread between the July contract of starch and corn was 325 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from last week [58]. Substitute Spread - As of June 12, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,430.39 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,406.27 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 24.12 yuan/ton. In the 24th week of 2025, the spread between cassava starch and corn starch changed little, with an average spread of 206 yuan/ton, a reduction of 33 yuan/ton from last week [64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply - Port Inventory**: As of June 6, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 101.6 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.3 tons, unchanged from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 305.9 tons, a decrease of 25.2 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 58 tons, a decrease of 7.7 tons week - on - week [53]. - **Supply - Spring Corn Growth**: No detailed information provided other than the topic about the growth and development of spring corn [66]. - **Supply - Monthly Import**: In April 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 180,000 tons, a decrease of 1 million tons or 84.75% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous month [72]. - **Supply - Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of June 12, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 33.48 days, a decrease of 1.87 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.79% [76]. - **Demand - Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of April, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [80]. - **Demand - Breeding Profit**: As of June 6, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 33.83 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 120.8 yuan/head [84]. - **Demand - Processing Profit**: As of June 12, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 96 yuan/ton, and the processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 827 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 596 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 168 yuan/ton [89]. Corn Starch - **Supply - Enterprise Inventory**: As of June 11, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.651 million tons, a decrease of 0.06% [93]. - **Supply - Operating Rate and Inventory**: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 14,800 tons from last week. The national corn starch output was 252,000 tons, a decrease of 15,800 tons from last week. The weekly operating rate was 48.71%, a decrease of 3.06% from last week. As of June 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.18% [97]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of June 13, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2507 contract of corn was 8.9%, an increase of 0.66% from 8.24% last week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [100].

Core Insights - The USDA drought report indicates a reduction in the proportion of U.S. soybeans affected by drought conditions, although the soybean planting rate remains below market expectations [1] Group 1 - The area of U.S. soybeans impacted by drought has decreased [1] - Previous soybean planting rates were lower than market expectations [1]