大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 28 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,788.3 | 13.3 | 0.75% | 26,019.0 | -6.23% | 28,900.0 | 3.23% | | EC2602 | 1,548.7 | -22.9 | -1.46% | 6,213.0 | 0.63% | 13,910.0 | 5.88% | | EC2604 | 1,162.7 | -16.1 | -1.37% | 2,279.0 | 11.44% | 14,279. ...

每经AI快讯，10月28日，中远海能(600026.SH)公告称，全资子公司大连中远海运能源供应链有限公司 计划以现金约5.98亿元收购中远海运大连投资有限公司持有的上海中远海运液化气运输有限公司100% 股权。此次交易旨在减少关联交易和同业竞争，实现液化石油气（LPG）业务统一经营与发展。交易价 格以评估机构出具的资产评估报告中确认的截至2025年6月30日的上海液化气股东全部权益价值的评估 值为依据，并最终以国资有权部门备案的评估值为准。 ...

格隆汇10月28日｜宁波远洋：第三季度营收为15.81亿元，同比增长19.23%；净利润为1.55亿元，同比 增长21.15%。前三季度营收为45.09亿元，同比增长19.64%；净利润为5.33亿元，同比增长31.61%。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In early November, the planned capacity on European and American routes declined from a high level. The container volume of cargo - carrying containers sent from China to the US decreased again, while that from Vietnam rebounded. The arrival volume at US ports continued to decline, and the throughput at domestic ports rebounded and remained higher than the same period last year. There was a rebound in US bookings in mid - October [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Content High - frequency Capacity - In the 45th week (November 2 - 9 planned capacity), the capacity on the US - West route was 273,000 TEU, a significant decline of 30% year - on - year and 19% week - on - week. The capacity on the US - East route was 164,000 TEU, down 9.5% year - on - year and 23.9% week - on - week. The capacity on the China - Southeast Asia route was at a high level, reaching 583,000 TEU, with a year - on - year positive growth of 40.6% and a week - on - week decline of 8.5% [1]. - In the 45th week, the planned capacity on the China - North Europe route increased both year - on - year and week - on - week, reaching 325,000 TEU, with a week - on - week decline of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. The capacity on the Mediterranean route was 230,000 TEU, up 36.8% year - on - year and down 14.8% week - on - week [2]. Container Volume of Cargo - carrying Containers Sent to the US - As of October 27, the container volume of cargo - carrying containers sent from China to the US was 342,000 TEU, a 6.5% decline from the previous week, and the number of ships was 43, also a 6.5% decline from the previous week. The container volume of cargo - carrying containers sent from Vietnam to the US rebounded, reaching 140,000 TEU, a 47.3% increase from the previous week [2]. Arrival Volume at US Ports - As of October 28, the weekly total arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 465,000 TEU, a 15.7% decline from the previous week. The arrival volume of imported goods from China was 160,000 TEU, with a slight increase of 0.5% from the previous week. The arrival volume of imported goods from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a 41.7% increase from the previous week [2]. Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of October 26, the container throughput at domestic ports decreased by 8.5% week - on - week, was basically flat year - on - year, and reached 5.903 million TEU [2]. Booking Data - From October 13 - 20, the total US bookings reached 353,000 TEU, a 11.4% increase from the previous week and a 0.8% increase year - on - year. Bookings from China were 141,000 TEU, a 27% increase from the previous week and a 0.1% decrease year - on - year [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jinmao Marine Inc., an indirect subsidiary of Jin Hui Group, has entered into an agreement to sell a bulk carrier for $13.2 million (approximately HKD 103 million) to Jiangsu Xinglian Shipping Co., Ltd. The delivery of the vessel is scheduled for on or before December 10, 2025 [1]. Group 1 - The vessel "JIN MAO" has a deadweight tonnage of 56,469 metric tons and is registered in Hong Kong [1]. - Jin Hui Group currently operates a fleet of 29 vessels, which includes 21 owned vessels and 8 leased vessels, with a total carrying capacity of approximately 2.2 million metric tons [1]. - Among the owned vessels, two are arranged under sale and leaseback agreements, and one has been sold and reclassified as an asset held for sale [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" issued by multiple national ministries will create multiple strategic opportunities for the company, including increased transportation demand and expansion of high-end product transportation and international business [1][2] - The company anticipates that the implementation of the plan, along with related policies, will gradually release new production capacity in the domestic petrochemical industry, which is expected to boost the domestic chemical transportation market [1][2] - The company is positioned as a leading player in liquid chemical shipping in China and aims to establish long-term partnerships with new capacity projects to secure more transportation business [1][2] Group 2 - The emphasis on increasing the supply of high-end chemical products in the plan is viewed as a development opportunity for the company, which has a fleet characterized by "large-scale, youthfulness, greenness, and high-end" features [2] - The company has seen an increase in its foreign trade revenue, which rose to 42% in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in international freight rates [2] - The company plans to have 11 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 209,100 tons operational by the end of 2027, representing a 171% increase in capacity to meet the needs of Chinese enterprises going global and international chemical trade [2] Group 3 - The company follows a "1+2+1" development strategy focused on expanding domestic coastal liquid hazardous goods transportation while also exploring new energy transportation and deepening international shipping [3] - The company locks in basic revenue through a high proportion of COA contracts and time-charter models in the domestic market, while flexibly adjusting capacity based on global freight trends and regional demand in the international market [3] - The company has implemented a data-driven and AI-smart transformation in its operations, enhancing operational efficiency and safety management through the deployment of an AI-based shipping model [3]

金辉集团(00137)发布公告，Jinmao Marine Inc.(卖方)为公司拥有约55.69%权益的间接附属公司，于2025 年10月28日与江苏省兴联海运有限公司(买方)就有关以1320万美元(约1.03亿港元)的代价出售该船舶订 立该协议。该船舶将于2025年12月10日或以前由卖方交付予买方。 该船舶"JIN MAO"为一艘载重量56,469公吨及于香港註册之散装货船; 集团目前经营29艘船舶，包括21艘自置船舶及8艘租赁船舶，而总运载能力约为220万公吨。自置船舶中 有两艘已安排于售后回租协议下及一艘已出售及已重新分类为持作出售资产的船舶。 ...

Group 1 - The company primarily engages in domestic container logistics business, with international operations mainly conducted through chartering vessels [2] - An investor inquired whether the company has exported products to EU countries in the past two years [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 10 - month contract has completed delivery, and attention should be paid to Maersk's WEEK46 quotation. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on rhythm, with shipowners expected to adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to be oscillatingly strong, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [1][5][6][8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 27, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1571.60, EC2604 contract is 1178.80, EC2606 contract is 1387.10, EC2608 contract is 1480.30, EC2510 contract is 1130.90, and EC2512 contract is 1775.00. The total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 61,327.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 37,591.00 lots. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is 1161.63 points [4][6] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances are provided. For example, Gemini Cooperation: Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK45 quote is 1420/2370; HPL - SPOT's first - half of November price is 1335/2135, and the second - half of November shipping schedule quote is 1735/2835. The actual landing prices in the first half of November have been gradually revised down [1] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December, the average weekly capacity shows different trends. In November, there are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs (with expected conversion to blank sailings). In December, there are 5 TBNs. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [3][7] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: On October 27, local time, the Israeli military chief stated that the war against Hamas would not end until all Israeli hostages were returned. China's counter - measure against the US USTR port surcharge has relatively little impact on the European line [2][4] 5. Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EC market is in a downward trend mainly due to some airlines starting to lower quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage, with the first attempt in late October showing initial results in stopping the decline, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding attempts are expected in the next two months. The strategy is to wait and see, and future attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November [5][6] Summary by Relevant Information Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1403, a previous value of 1310, and a change of 7.11%. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a current value of 2153, a change of 11.21%; SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1107, a change of 28.42%; SCFI - US East has a current value of 3032, a change of 6.27%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1246, a change of 8.82%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1312, a change of 15.09%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 1746, a change of 8.25%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a previous value of 973, with a change of - 100.00% [3] - **Contracts**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most show a downward trend in price. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1387.1, a previous value of 1397.9, and a change of - 0.77% [3] - **Positions**: There are changes in positions for different contracts. For example, EC2606 position has a current value of 1371, a previous value of 1377, and a change of (6) [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of - 644.1, a previous value of - 693.2, and a change of 49.1; the 12 - 2 monthly spread has a current value of 203.4, a previous value of 230.0, and a change of (26.6); the 12 - 4 monthly spread has a current value of 596.2, a previous value of 651.4, and a change of (55.2) [3] Market News - The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he reached a "very substantial framework agreement" with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, which will avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. US President Donald Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with Chinese leaders after the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade consultations [4] - CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping have started to re - flag some ships to India. India's shipping policies attract shipping orders and ship registrations, while the US's shipping revitalization in 2025 has weaker results [4] - The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current about $4 billion as the regional situation stabilizes and ship traffic returns to pre - crisis levels [4] - The US and Vietnam have agreed to establish a "reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade framework agreement" to strengthen bilateral economic relations and provide market access for exporters [4] EC Market - **Spot Prices**: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL quoted 1900, 00CL quoted 2600, etc. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HPL quoted 2500, etc., with some prices showing changes [5] - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]