1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of container shipping index futures for European routes fluctuates. The recommended strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7]. - The August contract price of container shipping is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The December contract follows the pattern of peak and off - seasons, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's price for WEEK31 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1855/3110, while HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are 2035/3335 and 2235/3535 respectively [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a military operation with three drones against two locations in Israel on the 15th, and they will continue military actions until Israel stops the aggression against Gaza and lifts the blockade [2]. - Shipping capacity: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of July is 303,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. Maersk will add two extra - sailing vessels in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points. Historically, the freight rate from Shanghai to European base ports generally peaks around WEEK34 [3]. - October contract: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - December contract: The peak - off - season pattern still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: As of July 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index futures for European routes is 85,457 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 159,135 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1516.40, EC2604 at 1319.00, etc. [5]. - Spot prices: On July 11, the SCFI for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, for the Shanghai - US West route was 2194.00 US dollars/FEU, and for the Shanghai - US East route was 4172.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2421.94 points, and for the Shanghai - US West route was 1266.59 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7].

Report Investment Rating - Hold the reverse spreads of 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 in the container shipping index (European Line) lightly [1] Core View - Yesterday, multiple contracts of the container shipping index rose. The 2510 and 2512 contracts increased in positions and prices, with the 10 - 12 spread widening. The 2508 contract rose to repair the subsidy space. For the 2508 contract, the current situation is neutral, and for the 2510 contract, the market is bearish in the long - term but has short - term capital game factors. The strategy is to hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [1][11][14] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - EC2508 contract closed at 2,126.0 points, up 4.77% with a trading volume of 30,362 and a position of 21,555, a decrease of 6,336 in position [1] - EC2510 contract closed at 1,655.6 points, up 15.38% with a trading volume of 107,782 and a position of 46,629, an increase of 13,685 in position [1] - EC2512 contract closed at 1,836.0 points, up 16.06% with a trading volume of 13,026 and a position of 7,434, an increase of 1,056 in position [1] - The 10 - 12 spread widened from - 130 points to - 180 points [11] 2. Freight Index - The SCFIS European route index was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% week - on - week [1] - The SCFI European route index was $2,099/TEU, down 0.1% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,194/FEU, up 5.0% bi - weekly [1] 3. Spot Freight - Maersk's 31 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was reported at $3,070/FEU (up $70/FEU week - on - week), and the latest quote was updated to $3,110/FEU. Other shipping companies' quotes in late July remained unchanged, and the FAK average in late July was maintained at $3,350/FEU [11] 4. Market Fundamentals - In August, the weekly average capacity was revised up to 321,000 TEU/week. Maersk added 2 additional ships in August, increasing the probability of a lower opening price in the 32nd week [12] - For the 2508 contract, in the neutral scenario, the spot FAK from wk31 to wk34 may be revised down by about $200/FEU, and the 2508 neutral valuation is in the range of 2,050 - 2,100 points [13] - For the 2510 contract, October is the traditional off - season for the European route. The market's fundamental trading logic is to go short on rallies, but short - term capital games are the core driver [14] 5. Macro News - The US and its allies set the end of August as the deadline for reaching an Iran nuclear deal. If not reached, three European powers plan to activate the "snapback" mechanism [10]

Group 1 - The low interest rate environment highlights the value of dividend asset allocation, with the transportation industry showing high dividend yields above current government bond yields [1] - As of July 9, 2025, the dividend yields for various sectors are approximately 1.5% for highways, 1% for ports, and 5% for shipping [1] - The scale of dividend products has accelerated since 2024, exceeding 200 billion yuan by Q1 2025, with dividend ETFs contributing significantly to this growth [1] Group 2 - The Redundant State-Owned Enterprise ETF tracks the Shanghaizhengqun Dividend Index, which selects high-quality companies with stable dividend records listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - These companies typically exhibit strong financial health and profitability, covering multiple industries but leaning towards mature and stable sectors [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of quality listed companies that can provide investors with stable returns [1]

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/7/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਝ ਦੇ ਲੋ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓星 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2508 | | 2126.0 | 4.87 | 295.9 | | 30362 | 21552 | -6336 | | | EC2510 | | 1655.6 | 14.92 | 766.3 | 107782 | | 46629 | 13685 | | | EC2512 | | 1836.0 | 16.17 | ਦੋਂ ਨੇ ਰੇ | | 13026 | 7434 | 1056 | | | EC2602 | | 1516.4 | 9.40 | ે છે તે ર | | 2983 | 3759 | -140 | | 期景 | EC2604 | | 1319.0 | 8.24 | 1102.9 | | 4507 | 5447 | -300 | | | EC2606 | | ...

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities. In the financial sector, factors such as inflation data, trade agreements, and central bank policies influence the performance of assets like gold, the US dollar, and stocks. In the commodity sector, supply - demand dynamics, production data, and policy changes impact prices of metals, energy, and agricultural products. Overall, different assets are expected to have diverse trends such as some being in a short - term upward movement, some in a downward trend, and others in a state of oscillation [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Nvidia is applying to resell H20 GPUs, and the US government assures to grant the license. US CPI rebounded in June, with inflation data influencing gold prices. Gold is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump reached a trade deal with Indonesia, lowering the tariff rate to 19%. US CPI data in June was in line with expectations, with inflation rising and the US dollar index expected to continue rising in the short term [15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia, and US core CPI in June rose 2.9% year - on - year. The impact of tariffs is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to control positions carefully [21][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, higher than expected. The bond market is expected to turn stronger gradually in the coming months [25][27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 15, the price difference between imported and domestic steam coal was presented. Due to high - temperature weather, coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Q2 iron ore production and shipment data were released. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate as the market sentiment eases [31]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA's June soybean crushing was higher than expected. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US relations [33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export in the first two weeks of July decreased. Pakistan canceled a large - scale sugar import tender. The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the processing sugar quotation [35][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The oil market is expected to decline slightly, and a YP spread widening strategy can be considered [41]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment in H1 increased by 4.6%. Steel prices are expected to have limited upward space, and a rebound hedging strategy is recommended for the spot market [42][44]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - New Hope's expected H1 2025 net profit increased. The hog price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended for the 09 contract [46][47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had different profit situations. The starch price is expected to be stable, and the CS - C spread has high uncertainty [48]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the corn auction on July 15 decreased. Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short positions on new - crop corn can be considered [49][51]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was presented. The lead price is expected to have support at the moving average, and long positions can be considered on dips [52]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc smelter in central China plans to conduct maintenance in August. The zinc price is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [54][55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Lockheed Martin plans to restart seabed mining. China's copper production increased. The copper price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][59]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia and the EU have no disputes over nickel mining policies. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [61][63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona's lithium project drilling results were positive. Lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions on dips can be considered [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU plans to expand the CBAM scope. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On July 15, the PX price declined. The PX price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [68]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the basis was stable. The PTA price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [70][72]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in Shandong resumed production. The styrene price is expected to oscillate downward, and potential layout opportunities should be observed [73]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The bottle chip price is expected to have a short - term relief in supply pressure, and opportunities to expand the processing margin can be considered [74][77]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased sporadically. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further after the basis has been adjusted [77][78]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp price was stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space as the supply - demand situation remains unchanged [79][80]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market was slightly weaker. The PVC price is expected to have limited upward space as the fundamentals are weakening [81][82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price is expected to have a trading range of [900, 1100] yuan/ton, and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy is recommended [83][84]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China was stable. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's June production increased, and China's June crude oil processing volume rebounded. The crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the short term [87][88]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted their US - East routes. The container freight rate is expected to have short - selling opportunities for the EC2510 contract and 10 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [90][92].

期货热点追踪 相关链接 交易氛围偏暖，集运欧线领涨期市，机构分析表示，7月下半月运价仍在缓慢推涨中，欧线见顶预期持 续修复，市场继续博弈欧线旺季空间。 ...

Summary of COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers Conference Call Company Overview - COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers plans to integrate nearly 50 new vessels over three years, increasing total deadweight tonnage to approximately 7.6 million, with targets of over 9 million by the end of 2025 and over 10 million by 2026, significantly enhancing capacity and market competitiveness [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Diverse Fleet Composition**: The company utilizes a diverse fleet including multipurpose heavy-lift vessels, pulp carriers, semi-submersible vessels, and roll-on/roll-off ships, along with innovative models like port-to-port loading and unloading to improve service quality and operational efficiency [2][4] - **Strategic Alliances**: COSCO has established strategic alliances with over 40 leading clients, achieving a direct customer ratio of nearly 80%, which positions the company to capitalize on opportunities in advanced manufacturing and new energy vehicle exports [2][6] - **Full-Chain Logistics Development**: The company aims to transition from a supply chain operator to a comprehensive solution provider, offering ground services to major clients like SANY Heavy Industry and launching innovative products such as the Zijiang Express [7][24] - **Revenue Growth**: The AC segment revenue has increased nearly 200% year-on-year, contributing approximately 10% to total revenue [7] Financial Performance - **2025 H1 Performance**: The company expects to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, with rapid growth in net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items, driven by capacity expansion and innovative business models [3][10] - **Vessel Rental Rates**: In H1 2025, rental rates for various vessel types are projected as follows: multipurpose vessels at $16,000/day, heavy-lift vessels at $21,000/day, pulp carriers at $23,000/day, asphalt carriers at $10,000/day, and specialized car carriers at $50,000/day, with pulp carrier rates declining by approximately 10% year-on-year [8][9] Market Dynamics - **Container Market Trends**: The container market in Q1 2025 experienced a decline of about 10% due to the end of a shipping rush related to Brazilian tariffs, while other vessel types like heavy-lift and semi-submersible vessels saw increases [9][12] - **Wind Power Sector Impact**: The wind power sector has positively influenced the company's performance, with heavy-lift vessels being crucial for transporting wind power equipment, contributing significantly to overall growth [14][15] Future Outlook - **Long-Term Strategy**: COSCO SHIPPING Specialized Carriers focuses on a counter-cyclical development strategy, emphasizing partnerships with advanced manufacturing sectors and aiming for steady market share and profit growth [16][21] - **Capital Expenditure Plans**: Future capital expenditures will focus on team structure optimization and new project advancements, while maintaining a dividend policy of at least 30% [20][19] - **Market Positioning**: The company anticipates that high-quality resources will dominate the market in the long term, with a focus on high-value, flexible small vessels to meet growing demand [21][22] Additional Insights - **Changes in Cargo Structure**: There has been a notable shift in cargo structure, with traditional categories like steel declining and high-end manufacturing categories such as engineering machinery and new energy vehicles rising [23] - **International Market Strategies**: COSCO aims to become a comprehensive solution provider for international projects, enhancing core capabilities through multimodal transport and digital integration [24][25] - **Optimistic Growth Prospects**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for Chinese equipment overseas, particularly in regions like South America and the Belt and Road Initiative [25][26]

Group 1: Policy Implementation and Infrastructure Development - The "Two Heavy" (national strategic implementation and key area security capability construction) and "Two New" (large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement) policies are crucial for expanding domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [1] - The Pinglu Canal project in Guangxi, a major national construction project, is expected to be operational by the end of 2026, significantly reducing logistics costs for the southwestern region [2] - Shanghai is focusing on key industries such as large aircraft and humanoid robots, organizing projects to accelerate progress in line with the "Two Heavy" policy [3] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Supply Optimization - The "Two New" policy aims to optimize supply, boost consumption, and enhance consumer confidence, with initiatives like the old-for-new subsidy for consumer electronics [4] - In 2024, Guangxi plans to allocate approximately 5.1 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, which is expected to directly stimulate sales of around 32.5 billion yuan [4] - The implementation of the "Two New" policy has led to significant improvements in production efficiency and order growth in companies like Nannan Aluminum [6] Group 3: Financial Support and New Business Models - Financial institutions in Guangxi are being guided to support projects focused on energy saving, carbon reduction, and industrial digital transformation [7] - Shanghai has introduced a special action plan to promote large-scale equipment updates in the industrial sector, with over 500 projects expected to receive support in 2024 [7] - The research team suggests exploring new business models and industries that align with evolving consumer demands to further stimulate domestic demand [8]

每经记者｜张韵 每经编辑｜杨夏 集运北美航线运价在连续下跌四周后，出现小幅反弹。7月11日，上海港出口至美西基本港市场运价为 2194美元/FEU（40英尺标准箱，即大柜），较上期上涨5.0%。而对比6月6日的峰值，美西航线海运费 仍跌去六成。 上海航运交易所表示，"关税战"近期再次成为市场关注的焦点，美国总统特朗普延长所谓"对等关税"的 暂缓期，将实施时间推迟至8月1日。此外，美国对多个国家设定了新的关税税率，并宣布将对铜征收高 达50%的行业关税。关税政策的持续反复，将继续对集运市场造成较大影响。 美线旺季运价整体反常下跌 市场趋势仍与中美贸易情况紧密相关。7月14日，海关总署副署长王令浚在新闻发布会上答记者问时表 示，上半年，我国对美国进出口总值2.08万亿元，同比下降9.3%。受所谓"对等关税"影响，中美贸易由 第一季度同比增长转为第二季度同比下降，降幅达到了20.8%。 随着日内瓦、伦敦经贸会谈取得积极进展，6月份进出口值有所回升，同比降幅也明显收窄。王令浚 称，据了解，目前中美双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。 从美国港口官方发布的数据来看，洛杉矶港在6月份创纪录的进口量较5月环比增长了32% ...