Group 1: Market Performance - From August 1 to 10, the national passenger car retail market sold 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, but a month-on-month increase of 6%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 13.198 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1][4] - During the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 403,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, but a month-on-month decrease of 3%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 15.927 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13% [1][8] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - In the first ten days of August, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 262,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a retail penetration rate of 57.9%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 6.717 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28% [1][4] - Wholesale sales of new energy vehicles during the same period were 229,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 56.8%. Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 7.862 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35% [1][4] Group 3: Market Trends and Policies - Recent promotional policies in various regions have been steadily advancing, with the third batch of subsidy funds distributed, and the "trade-in" program gradually restarting, which is expected to improve sales growth in August [4] - The automotive industry is experiencing a dual push from both domestic and international demand, with a notable improvement in industry order due to the rapid implementation of macro policies [8] - The second-hand car market is also showing signs of improvement, with a total transaction volume of 9.57 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [9]

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601238 广汽集团 | | 1952.64万 | 10.11% | -1973.97万 | -10.22% | 21.33万 | 0.11% | | 601633 长城汽车 | | 173.01万 | 0.23% | 1749.18万 | 2.29% | -1922.19万 | -2.51% | | 000572 海马汽车 | | -5964.92万 | -26.61% | 1677.73万 | 7.48% | 4287.19万 | 19.13% | | 002594 比亚迪 | | -9969.77万 | -2.03% | 1.34亿 | 2.73% | -3411.07万 | -0.69% | | 000625 长安汽车 | | -1.347 | -10.59% | 2568.24万 | 2.02% | 1.09亿 | 8.56% | | 600733 北汽蓝 ...

Group 1 - The market showed a strong upward trend with an overall increase of 1.94% during the week of August 4-8, with micro-cap stocks, CSI 1000, and CSI Dividend leading the gains, while the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index had narrower increases [2][10] - The defense and military, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment sectors led the gains among 31 Shenwan industries, while retail, computing, and pharmaceutical sectors lagged [2][10] - The stock-bond yield spread decreased to 1.1%, indicating a divergence in valuations, with the valuation dispersion index rising by 2.7% [3][25] Group 2 - The film box office in 2025 is projected to exceed 35 billion, with new films scheduled for release, contributing to market enthusiasm [4][47] - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games will take place in Beijing from August 15-17, which is expected to catalyze interest in the robotics sector [4][48] - The successful launch of the low-orbit satellite internet group by China is accelerating the pace of satellite deployment, which is crucial for the development of 6G networks [4][49] Group 3 - The report highlights the expansion of growth sectors, including defense and military (aerospace equipment, military electronics), pharmaceuticals (medical devices), AI (semiconductors, IT services), and automotive (auto parts, passenger vehicles) [4][51] - There is a focus on dividend stocks and precious metals, with attention to potential opportunities following corrections in dividend sectors and the impact of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations on precious metals [4][51]

Core Viewpoint - The retail growth rate of the passenger car market slowed down in July, with automakers actively reducing inventory, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles remained stable at a high level of 53.2% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1][2]. - Wholesale sales were 2.221 million units, down 10.8% month-on-month and up 13.0% year-on-year [1][2]. - The production of narrow passenger cars was 2.229 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Insights - New energy vehicle exports surged by 120% year-on-year to 213,000 units, accounting for 44.7% of total exports, marking a significant growth driver [1][3]. - The wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars in July was 1.181 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 24% and a year-on-year decrease of 5% [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased by 5 percentage points month-on-month to 53.2% [4]. Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - The third batch of 69 billion yuan for the old-for-new policy is expected to alleviate sales pressure in the third quarter [1][5]. - The market is experiencing a reduction in price competition and promotional activities, which may stabilize the industry [5]. - New models have been launched, contributing to market dynamics, with notable sales from brands like Li Auto and XPeng [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on automakers such as Li Auto, Geely, Leap Motor, and Great Wall Motors, as well as parts suppliers like Fuyao Glass and New Spring [6].

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601127 | 赛力斯 | 4.49 Z | 15.01% | -2.28 Z | -7.60% | -2.22 Z | -7.41% | | 601633 长城汽车 | | 6211.98万 | 6.96% | -1400.61万 | -1.57% | -4811.37万 | -5.39% | | 002594 比亚迪 | | 4587.15万 | 1.39% | -8018.50万 | -2.43% | 3431.35万 | 1.04% | | 601238 广汽集团 | | -453.74万 | -2.31% | -431.67万 | -2.19% | 885.42万 | 4.50% | | 000572 海马汽车 | | -547.71万 | -3.08% | -469.52万 | -2.64% | 1017.23万 | 5.72% | | 600104 上 ...

新京报贝壳财经记者 张冰 制图 他提到，当前市场保持相对稳定，乘用车行业促销与降价均回归理性，市场秩序明显改善。 基于"两新"政策补贴的加力扩围拉动以及市场实际表现，乘联分会对车市2025年销量预期进行上调，预计全年乘用车零售有望 达2435万辆，同比增长6%。 反内卷推动车市降价现象明显减弱 数据显示，全国乘用车市场累计零售1272.8万辆，同比增长10.1%，其中7月乘用车零售182.6万辆，同比增长6.3%。7月份，新 能源乘用车批发销量达118.1万辆，同比增长24.4%；零售量达98.7万辆，同比增长12%。销量的提升使新能源乘用车7月零售渗 透率进一步增至54%，较去年同期提升了2.7个百分点。这也是新能源乘用车渗透率今年连续第5个月超50%。 "反内卷"正推动车市降价减少、促销平缓，车市运行日益平稳。 中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会（简称"乘联分会"）秘书长崔东树8月10日发文表示，今年国内车市零售呈现"前低 中高后稳"的走势，相比于2023年7月乘用车市场零售176.8万辆的历史最高点，今年7月乘用车市场零售量进一步增长，新能源 乘用车零售渗透率升至54%，呈现出由报废更新、以旧换新叠 ...

Bernstein分析师报告表示，预计2025年中国乘用车批发销量约为2,950万辆，增长8%，其中包括2,400万 辆的国内销量和550万辆的出口量。Bernstein称，尽管电动汽车渗透率接近50%，但该行仍对电动汽车 的持续普及持乐观态度，因为目前电动汽车的定价普遍低于传统汽车，对中国消费者来说是越来越有吸 引力的选择。比亚迪和小米集团仍是Bernstein在电动汽车板块里首选的"强于大盘"个股。比亚迪强劲的 海外表现正在抵消国内市场压力的影响，同时比亚迪面向小鹏汽车和小米集团等主要客户的电池销售也 表现强劲。Bernstein对小米集团在推出YU7车型后的长期电动汽车发展潜力持乐观态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant analysis framework indicates that industries with low valuation (P/E percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) (Quadrant II) exhibit significant excess returns, while high valuation and low dividend yield industries (Quadrant IV) face notable correction risks. The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a high valuation trap (Quadrant IV) in 2021 to a low valuation and high dividend yield zone (Quadrant II) after four years of valuation digestion, enhancing its investment attractiveness and safety margin due to a low valuation level (12.0% historical percentile) and a relatively high dividend yield (3.6%) [2][6]. Group 1: Valuation-Dividend Quadrant Model - The "valuation-dividend" quadrant model is constructed using valuation and dividend dimensions to assess industry allocation value. The horizontal axis represents the P/E percentile, calculated using dynamic historical percentiles from the past 20 years, while the vertical axis represents the rolling dividend yield from the past 12 months. Quadrant I includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant II includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and high dividend yield (> 3%) industries, Quadrant III includes low valuation (historical percentile < 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries, and Quadrant IV includes high valuation (historical percentile > 50%) and low dividend yield (< 3%) industries. Historically, industries in Quadrant II tend to have better risk-return ratios and allocation value, while Quadrant IV industries require caution [4][15]. Group 2: Historical Validation - As of the end of 2023, the banking industry was in Quadrant II, with a dividend yield of 6.0% and a P/E percentile of only 0.3%. This configuration highlighted the industry's allocation value, leading to a significant outperformance of the banking sector, which rose by 52.83% from early 2024 to August 8, 2025, outperforming the broader market by 30.64 percentage points [18]. - In contrast, during the market peak in Q3 2021, the food and beverage and power equipment industries were in Quadrant IV, with dividend yields of 1.1% and 0.4%, and P/E historical percentiles of 78.0% and 82.3%, respectively. These industries subsequently underperformed the market, with returns from Q4 2021 to August 8, 2025, being -34.82% and -34.75%, lagging the broader market by approximately 35 percentage points [19]. Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry Transition - The food and beverage industry has transitioned from a risk zone to a value zone, entering Quadrant II as of August 8, 2025, with a P/E percentile of 12.0% and a dividend yield of 3.6%. This shift signifies a qualitative change, as the current low valuation level and relatively high dividend yield enhance the industry's allocation cost-effectiveness and safety margin [22]. Group 4: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to over 7%, reaching 7.28% as of August 3, 2025, up from 6.35% on July 27, 2025. The increase is primarily driven by infrastructure (asphalt operating rate) and durable goods consumption (passenger car sales) [7][25]. - In real estate, the decline in residential sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of -17% in the first week of August across 67 cities, compared to -22% in July [8][29]. - The operating rate of asphalt facilities was 31.7% as of August 6, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, while cement dispatch rates were at 39.2%, slightly down from the previous week but better than the same period last year [33].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of intelligent driving technology. The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments in the second half of 2025 [6][12]. Group 1: Weekly Review Summary - In the fifth week of July, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 462,000 units, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2% [11]. - The performance ranking of segmented automotive sectors this week is as follows: SW motorcycles and others (+9.6%) > SW automotive parts (+4.5%) > SW automobiles (+2.7%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (+2.6%) > SW passenger vehicles (-0.7%) > SW commercial freight vehicles (-4.2%) [11][19]. - The top five stocks covered this week include Chunfeng Power, Xinquan Co., Xiaopeng Motors-W, Mingyang Technology, and Hengshuai Co. [11][25]. Group 2: Industry Core Changes - Xiaopeng's new P7 will debut on August 6, featuring design, intelligent cockpit, control range, and intelligent driving assistance, with an expected launch in August [5][11]. - The Li Auto i8 has undergone SKU adjustments and price reductions, standardizing to the max version and reducing prices by 10,000 yuan for max and 20,000 yuan for ultra [5][11]. - The new Wanjie M7 has been announced, adopting the latest family design language with a wheelbase of 3030mm, offering five/six-seat versions and EV/EREV energy types [5][11]. Group 3: Market Focus and Configuration - The A-share automotive market performed well this week, while the Hong Kong automotive sector lagged behind the broader market. The motorcycle segment performed the best [7][12]. - The recommendation is to increase the allocation weight of "dividend style" investments, focusing on buses (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A-H/Waichai Power), two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power/Lonxin General), and parts (Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Xinquan Co., Jifeng Co.) [12]. - For AI intelligent vehicles, the preference is for Hong Kong stocks (Xiaopeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, Xiaomi Group-W) over A-shares (Seres, SAIC Group, BYD) [12]. Group 4: Sales and Forecasts - The total number of passenger vehicles insured this week was 462,000, with a week-on-week increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2%. New energy vehicles accounted for 245,000 units, with a penetration rate of 53.1% [47]. - The forecast for 2025 indicates a total retail sales volume of 2,369,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [48][49]. - The expected sales volume for heavy trucks in 2025 is 750,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [53].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese passenger car market is expected to see a retail growth of 11% year-on-year by 2025, driven by favorable national policies and a strong performance in the northern regions, while the southern regions show weaker growth [1]. Group 1: Regional Market Trends - The northern car market is showing significant strength, with a 3.3 percentage point increase in market share in June 2025 compared to the previous year, and a 5.7 percentage point increase compared to 2019 [2][3]. - The Northeast region has been steadily growing, maintaining a high market share of 7% in June 2025, while the southern regions, particularly East China, have experienced significant declines [1][4]. - The overall market growth is characterized by a "north strong, south weak" pattern, with the Northeast and Northwest regions being the fastest-growing areas in China [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Market Structure - Subsidy policies are encouraging the growth of mid-to-low-end economic vehicles, with A00 and A0 level electric vehicles performing well in the northern regions [1][4]. - The shift towards new energy vehicles (NEVs) is accelerating in northern provinces, with plug-in hybrid models gaining traction due to their advantages in colder climates [1][4]. - The market structure is evolving, with SUVs showing strong demand in the central and western regions, while traditional fuel vehicles still dominate in these areas [7][9]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Market - The new energy vehicle market is performing well, particularly in pure electric and plug-in hybrid segments, with traditional fuel vehicles still holding a significant share of around 60% in the central and western regions [9][10]. - Regions like Hainan and Tianjin have seen new energy vehicle penetration rates reach approximately 60%, indicating robust growth [10][11]. - The overall structure of the passenger car market is shifting, with economic vehicles benefiting the most from government subsidies, reflecting a fair and equitable policy approach [11][12].