本报记者 刘钊 竞争升维与生态重构 第二十三届广州国际汽车展览会（以下简称"广州车展"）于11月21日在中国进出口商品交易会展馆（即 琶洲馆）正式拉开帷幕。本届车展以"新科技·新生活"为主题，展览规模达22万平方米。 广州车展组委会发布的数据显示，本届广州国际车展上首发零跑A10、小鹏X9超级增程、吉利银河 V900、奇瑞iCAR V27、新狮铂拓界等93款新车，展车总数达到1085台，其中新能源车629台，占比达 57.9%。全球主流车企携最新产品高规格参展，既有BMW及MINI、梅赛德斯-奔驰、大众汽车品牌、一 汽奥迪、上汽奥迪等国际主流汽车品牌，也有一汽红旗、广汽集团、吉利、比亚迪、蔚来、小鹏、理想 等自主品牌和新势力企业。 《证券日报》记者在广州车展现场注意到，展馆内人头攒动，智能座舱的语音交互声、新能源车型的性 能演示声与参观者的热议声交织，勾勒出汽车市场的活力图景。然而，在超千款车型同台竞技的热闹背 后，汽车市场正经历着前所未有的转型阵痛与创新变革，销量虽屡创新高却难掩盈利压力，新能源渗透 率飙升下燃油车坚守阵地，车企在微利困境中探寻"出海"与细分赛道的机遇。 微利时代的生存与博弈 虽然销量屡创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly earnings reports from electric vehicle manufacturers, particularly Xiaopeng Motors and Leap Motor, have raised concerns in the market, leading to significant stock price declines. The automotive industry is expected to undergo changes due to factors such as price reductions in electric vehicles and the reintroduction of vehicle purchase taxes in 2026 [2][4][9]. Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%, with total deliveries of approximately 116,000 units, up 149.3% year-on-year. However, the company incurred a net loss of 380 million yuan, although this represented a narrowing of losses compared to previous periods. The forecast for Q4 deliveries is between 125,000 and 132,000 units, indicating a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [5][6]. - Leap Motor achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3, nearly doubling year-on-year, and reported a net profit of 150 million yuan, marking a return to profitability despite an 8% decline from the previous quarter. The total delivery volume for Q3 was 173,800 units, with October deliveries reaching 70,300 units [5][6]. - Geely Automobile, as a traditional automaker, reported Q3 revenue of 89.2 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year. The total sales volume for Q3 was 761,000 units, reflecting a 43% year-on-year growth [5][6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The stock prices of Xiaopeng and Leap Motor fell significantly after their earnings reports, with Xiaopeng's stock dropping by 10.47% to 85.85 HKD, while Geely's stock saw a smaller decline of 1.16% [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the automotive sector is experiencing a weak performance, with declining sales data and concerns over the impact of the vehicle purchase tax reinstatement in 2026. This may lead to a slowdown in growth for the industry, prompting companies to enhance sales volumes to mitigate margin pressures [6][10]. - The average price reduction for electric vehicles in October was 18,000 yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, indicating a competitive pricing environment as companies prepare for the upcoming tax changes [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Honda Civic, once a dominant player in the automotive market, has seen a significant decline in sales, with September sales dropping to 4,035 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.57% [2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In January, the Civic sold 9,155 units, but has not surpassed 5,000 units in any month since [2] - The overall market trend shows a rapid decline in fuel vehicle market share, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) achieving a penetration rate of over 58% in September [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The Civic is facing intense competition from domestic new energy vehicles, which offer lower fuel consumption and advanced technology features [2] - For example, the BYD Qin PLUS DM-i has a starting price of 79,800 yuan, with a fuel consumption of only 3.8L/100km, significantly lower than the Civic's 7-8L/100km in urban conditions [2] Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing vehicles with lower overall costs and better experiences, rather than just brand recognition [4] - The Civic's outdated technology and lack of competitive advantages in terms of electrification and smart features have diminished its appeal [3][4] Group 4: Strategic Response - In an attempt to regain market share, Honda has opted for a price reduction strategy, reportedly lowering prices by 30% [3] - However, this strategy has not resulted in increased sales and has negatively impacted the interests of existing Civic owners [3] Group 5: Industry Implications - The current situation of the Civic serves as a warning for the entire fuel vehicle industry, indicating that merely relying on brand strength is insufficient in today's market [4] - Continuous innovation and responsiveness to consumer needs are essential for survival in the competitive automotive landscape [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Kia Yipao has been officially launched, focusing on the travel needs of young users with optimized design and various purchase incentives [1][4]. Group 1: Product Features - The new model offers two variants, emphasizing aesthetics, interior color schemes, space layout, and functional upgrades [1]. - The vehicle features a playful design, avoiding the bulky feel of traditional SUVs, with new color options including Frost Blue, Transparent White, and Blush Red [1][2]. - Interior customization is enhanced with four color options, including gray, black, yellow-black, and orange-black, catering to individual preferences [2]. Group 2: Comfort and Practicality - The vehicle has a wheelbase of 2570mm, providing spacious seating and comfort for long journeys, with features like adjustable headrests and leather seats [2]. - The rear seats can be folded in a 6:4 split, accommodating larger items like camping gear, while ample storage spaces are available for daily needs [2]. Group 3: Driving Experience - The 2026 Kia Yipao is designed for agility and ease of handling, with dimensions of 4100mm x 1735mm and a minimum turning radius of 5.45 meters [3]. - It is equipped with a 1.4L naturally aspirated engine and IVT transmission, ensuring smooth power delivery and ease of driving for novice drivers [3]. - Safety features include a high-strength body structure, multiple airbags, and various driving safety configurations to enhance stability in adverse conditions [3]. Group 4: Economic Efficiency - The vehicle boasts excellent fuel economy with a WLTC combined fuel consumption of just 6.13L/100km, reducing daily commuting costs [4]. - Kia provides a comprehensive after-sales service network and has ranked second in J.D. Power's customer satisfaction survey for two consecutive years, ensuring a worry-free ownership experience [4]. - The 2026 Kia Yipao meets the core demands of young consumers for a fuel-efficient, stylish, and practical vehicle suitable for various daily activities [4].

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive market in September showed a 20% month-over-month increase in customer traffic, demand, leads, orders, and delivery volumes compared to August, driven by new product launches and market demand [1][2] - Some brands like BYD experienced flat or slightly declining year-over-year sales, while brands like Geely saw growth [1][2] Key Insights - **Sales Performance**: During the double holiday period, mid-to-high-end sedans and new products performed well, with BYD's Dynasty series up 30% month-over-month and flat year-over-year, while the Ocean series grew 35% month-over-month and 10% year-over-year. Geely's Galaxy series saw a 50% month-over-month increase [1][4] - **Subsidy Impact**: The cessation of local replacement subsidies led to noticeable fluctuations in orders. The fourth batch of automotive consumption subsidies is expected to be implemented in mid-October to cover the shopping seasons of Double Eleven and Double Twelve, with expectations of year-over-year sales growth in October and November, while December may remain flat [1][5] - **Inventory Levels**: Inventory pressure has eased across brands, with BYD reducing inventory for five consecutive months. Major dealers have inventory levels of about 2.1 to 2.2 months, while smaller dealers are below 2 months. Geely and Leap Motor's inventory is also below 1.5 months. In contrast, fuel vehicle brands like Mercedes, BMW, and Audi have higher inventory levels exceeding 2 months [1][7] Market Dynamics - **Production Strategy**: Manufacturers do not have strong replenishment demands. BYD aims to assist dealers in overcoming high inventory and low profit situations. Geely maintains low inventory due to higher-than-expected sales. Overall, production strategies are moderately increasing, with strong terminal demand continuing a slow decline trend [1][8] - **Future Tax Policies**: The expected 5% refund on vehicle purchase tax for next year will significantly impact the average transaction price of new energy vehicles, estimated at around 160,000 yuan, while the impact on fuel vehicles priced below 120,000 yuan will be relatively minor. This, combined with trade-in policies, may lead to a 10% to 15% year-over-year sales decline in Q1 2026 [3][9] Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: Brands are focusing on capturing existing users, with companies like Huawei and Geely actively launching new models to maintain market growth. The demand for large five-seat and six-seat SUVs, especially plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, is expected to be strong in Q4 2025 [14][15][17] - **New Product Launches**: Upcoming new energy products from major players like BYD and Geely are anticipated to enhance market competitiveness, particularly in the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan price range, competing with traditional fuel vehicles [19][23] Consumer Behavior - **User Preferences**: Consumers are increasingly making quick purchasing decisions due to rumors of subsidy policy changes, leading to reduced discounting and lower inventory levels across popular models [6][20] - **Market Trends**: The demand for large five-seat and six-seat models is driven by budget-conscious consumers, indicating significant potential in this market segment [26] Conclusion - The automotive industry is experiencing a dynamic shift with strong demand for new energy vehicles, particularly in the SUV segment. The upcoming policy changes and competitive strategies will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in the near future.

Core Insights - The domestic automotive market in September 2025 shows a dual trend of growth in both new energy and traditional fuel vehicles, with significant competition among new energy brands and a structural recovery in fuel vehicles [1][6][11] New Energy Vehicle Market - Leap Motor achieved a record monthly delivery of 66,657 units in September, marking a 97% year-on-year increase and becoming the top new energy brand [2] - Other leading new energy brands, such as Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng, also reported monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units, indicating a heightened competitive threshold in the market [2][4] - Xiaomi's automotive division has raised its annual delivery target from 300,000 to 350,000 units, with over 250,000 units delivered by September [2] Traditional Fuel Vehicle Market - The fuel vehicle market is experiencing a structural recovery, with approximately 9 models selling over 10,000 units in September, accounting for about 20% of total fuel vehicle sales [6][10] - Notable models like the Nissan Sylphy and CR-V are capitalizing on family user needs, with competitive fuel efficiency [9] - Traditional automakers are seeing growth in their new energy models, with Changan and Chery reporting significant year-on-year increases in sales [4][5] Market Dynamics - The fuel vehicle market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with a few top models dominating sales, leading to challenges for smaller brands [10][11] - The recovery of fuel vehicles is supported by price reductions and policy incentives, which have stimulated demand [7][9] - Future competitiveness for fuel vehicles will depend on their ability to innovate and differentiate in terms of technology and user experience, rather than relying solely on price competition [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile (09973) has successfully listed, pricing each share at HKD 30.75, with a total issuance of 297 million shares, resulting in a net amount of approximately HKD 8.879 billion. The stock has seen an increase of 11.22%, trading at HKD 34.2 with a transaction volume of HKD 678 million [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Since its establishment in 1997, Chery has focused on industry innovation and international market penetration, providing high-quality passenger vehicles to global users [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, Chery ranks as the second largest domestic brand passenger vehicle company in China and the eleventh largest globally based on projected 2024 passenger vehicle sales [1] - Chery is the only company among the top twenty global passenger vehicle manufacturers in 2024 to achieve over 25% year-on-year growth in four key metrics: new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, domestic sales, and overseas sales [1] Group 2: Export and Market Position - Chery has maintained the top position in passenger vehicle exports among Chinese domestic brands for 22 consecutive years since 2003 [1] - The company ranks first among Chinese domestic brands in passenger vehicle sales in Europe, South America, and the Middle East and North Africa as of the nine months ending September 30, 2024, and second in North America and Asia (excluding China) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent leadership changes at Changan Automobile, highlighting the appointment of Yang Dayong as the head of the company's passenger vehicle business, specifically the Inertia and Origin brands, following the establishment of Changan as a new central enterprise in Chongqing. This shift indicates a new expectation for Changan's future direction in the automotive market, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and brand differentiation [3][4][5]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Yang Dayong has taken over the management of the Inertia and Origin brands, which are key to Changan's passenger vehicle segment [3][4]. - The previous president, Wang Jun, was reassigned, leaving a vacancy that has now been filled by Yang Dayong, who has a long history with the company [3][4]. - The restructuring also includes other key appointments, such as Wang Xiaofei becoming the executive vice president of Changan Ford, indicating a strategic realignment within the company [4][5]. Group 2: Brand Strategy - Changan has five main brands: Inertia, Origin, Kaicheng, Avita, and Deep Blue, with Inertia and Origin focusing on traditional and new energy vehicles, respectively [5][12]. - The Inertia brand encompasses fuel and hybrid vehicles, while the Origin brand is dedicated to new energy vehicles, aiming to capture the mainstream family market [5][12]. - The article notes that the Origin A06 and Deep Blue SL03 are essentially the same vehicle with different designs, highlighting Changan's strategy to optimize product offerings [15]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Goals - Changan aims to achieve a production and sales target of 5 million vehicles by 2030, with over 60% of sales coming from new energy vehicles [19]. - The company has set a goal of selling 3 million vehicles in 2025, including 1 million new energy vehicles, indicating a strong push towards electrification [19][20]. - Yang Dayong is optimistic about achieving sales targets for the Origin brand, projecting that two of its models could collectively sell over 400,000 units annually [20][22]. Group 4: Technological and Market Insights - Yang Dayong emphasizes the continued relevance of fuel vehicles, predicting they will maintain a market share of around 35% in the future, particularly if hybrid technology can be optimized [16][17]. - The article discusses the potential for breakthroughs in hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) technology, which could revitalize the fuel vehicle market [17][18]. - Changan's strategy includes leveraging existing manufacturing capabilities at Changan Ford to enhance production efficiency and quality for new models [16].

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile demonstrates significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by a diversified product portfolio and effective market strategies, while facing challenges in gross and net profit margins due to competitive pressures and market dynamics [3][4][5][6]. Business Model and Market Coverage - Chery designs, develops, manufactures, and sells a diverse range of passenger vehicles, including both fuel and new energy vehicles, under multiple brands such as Chery, Jetour, and Exeed, targeting various market segments from budget to luxury [1]. - The company employs a combination of dealer networks in China and overseas, with 3,663 domestic and 2,958 international dealer outlets as of March 31, 2025, and utilizes a multi-brand strategy to enhance market penetration [2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue has shown remarkable growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7%, increasing from 92.6 billion yuan in 2022 to 269.9 billion yuan in 2024, and reaching 68.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 24.2% increase year-on-year [3]. - Net profit also surged, with a CAGR of 57.1%, rising from 5.8 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.3 billion yuan in 2024, and a 90.9% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 4.7 billion yuan [4]. Margin Analysis - Gross margin fluctuated, decreasing to 12.4% in Q1 2025 from 13.5% in 2024, influenced by increased competition and changes in product mix [5]. - Net margin showed variability, stabilizing at 6.4% in 2023 but dropping to 5.3% in 2024, before rebounding to 6.9% in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in cost management and pricing strategies [6]. Revenue Composition - Passenger vehicle sales dominate revenue, accounting for over 90% of total income, with fuel vehicles comprising 69.6% and new energy vehicles increasing from 13.2% in 2022 to 27.3% in Q1 2025 [7][8]. Related Transactions - Chery's inter-company transactions are compliant with regulations, but there are uncertainties regarding profit distribution and tax implications that could affect financial stability [9]. Financial Challenges - The net current liabilities have raised concerns, with figures of 4.8 billion yuan in 2022 and 17.4 billion yuan in 2023, although improvements were noted in 2024 and Q1 2025 [10]. Market Competition - The global automotive market is highly competitive, with Chery facing challenges from both domestic and international rivals, particularly in the rapidly evolving new energy vehicle sector [11][20]. Peer Comparison - Chery ranks as the second largest domestic brand in China and the eleventh globally, with significant sales growth, yet it still lags behind in brand influence and profit margins compared to some international competitors [12][13]. Customer and Supplier Dynamics - Customer concentration remains stable, with the top five clients contributing 19.0% of total revenue in Q1 2025, indicating a broad customer base [14]. - Supplier concentration is also stable, with the top five suppliers accounting for 17.1% of total raw material purchases, though risks related to price fluctuations and delivery delays persist [15]. Management and Ownership Structure - Chery's management team possesses extensive industry experience, with the founder having over 40 years in the automotive sector, which aids in strategic decision-making [16]. - The company's ownership structure is dispersed among 22 shareholders, including state-owned enterprises, which may impact governance and decision-making processes [17].

Core Insights - The Australian electric vehicle market is experiencing a shift, with a decline in pure electric vehicle (BEV) sales and a significant increase in plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales [3][4][5] - Chinese automotive companies are adapting to these changes by diversifying their product lines to meet evolving consumer preferences [8][10] Electric Vehicle Sales Trends - In the first half of the year, BEV sales in Australia fell by 6.5% year-on-year to 47,145 units, reducing their market share from approximately 8% to 7.6% [3] - Despite the decline, the overall market share of BEVs is expected to grow by about 0.5 percentage points in 2024 compared to 2023, driven by increased competition from Chinese manufacturers [3][4] - A survey indicated that the proportion of respondents unwilling to purchase BEVs rose from about one-third in 2024 to nearly half, primarily due to concerns over range and charging infrastructure [3] Plug-in Hybrid and Hybrid Vehicle Growth - PHEV sales surged over 210% in the first half of the year, reaching 25,584 units, with significant contributions from models like BYD's Shark 6 and Sealion 6 [4][5] - Non-plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) also saw a 14.9% increase in sales, totaling 93,746 units, raising their market share from 12.9% to 15% [5] Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The Australian market is characterized by low fuel prices and insufficient charging infrastructure, which hampers the transition from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles [6] - Cultural factors contribute to a slower acceptance of new technologies, making it challenging for electric vehicles to rapidly replace traditional fuel vehicles [6][7] Chinese Automotive Companies' Strategies - Over a dozen Chinese automotive brands have entered the Australian market, with BYD leading in both BEV and PHEV sales [8][9] - BYD's total deliveries of new energy vehicles reached 23,355 units in the first half of the year, surpassing Tesla's 14,156 units [9] - Chinese companies are expanding their product offerings to include a range of low-emission vehicles, catering to diverse consumer needs [10][11] Future Outlook - The introduction of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) aims to promote higher fuel efficiency across all vehicle types, including hybrids and traditional fuel vehicles, indicating that fuel vehicles will remain relevant in the short to medium term [6] - The competitive landscape among Chinese brands is intensifying, with potential implications for individual company performance despite overall market growth [12]