分析师：何慧 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月浮法玻璃市场面临"弱现实+弱预期"的双重压力，价格中枢持续下探。宏观层面，国内4月政治局会议暂无明确增量 政策信息，中美贸易战进入僵持阶段，市场风险偏好有所修复，但关税担忧仍难消退，宏观情绪仍偏谨慎。自身基本面来看，目前 玻璃开工和日熔量维持低位波动的稳定状态，供应缩减预期比较有限，加之成本下降后厂家冷修计划放缓，供应端暂不能为玻璃提 供有效支撑。需求呈季节性改善，但下游深加工订单天数明显低于同期水平，房地产行业降幅缩窄，仍处于负值区间，市场需求预 期偏弱。玻璃上游企业重新累库，在中游较大库存的压制下，一定程度上使得盘面反弹被压制。中长期来看，玻璃全年供应呈现趋 势性下降的态势，需求存在阶段性抬升的情况，价格会随着基本面的变化而产生较大幅度的波动，建议产业方面把握高位套保的机 会。关注全球市场风险偏好、下游产销情况及国内对冲政策。 【策略】 单边策略：新晋主力09合约运行至1080附近，跌至动态煤制成本附近，动态跟踪20 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share, down from the previous year but exceeding management's expectations due to stronger sales volume and Fit to Win benefits [4][14] - Shipments increased by more than 4% compared to last year, reflecting a gradual recovery in market conditions [4][6] - The Fit to Win program generated savings of $61 million in the first quarter, contributing significantly to better-than-expected results [4][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Segment operating profit improved significantly in The Americas, driven by strong demand and strategic initiatives, while results in Europe trended down due to lower net prices and temporary production downtime [4][15] - In The Americas, sales volume grew nearly 4%, with strong performance in beer and spirits, while Europe saw a nearly 4% increase in volume but faced competitive pricing pressures [8][42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall shipments were up 4.4% in the first quarter, with growth driven by inventory rebuilding and contract negotiations [6][7] - Volumes increased across nearly all markets, particularly in beer and spirits, with Europe experiencing a rebound in customer inventory rebuilding [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reaffirming its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings to improve between 50% and 85% from 2024 [5][17] - The Fit to Win program aims to reduce total enterprise costs and optimize the network to support future profitable growth, with a target of $250 million in savings for 2025 [10][11] - The company is focused on improving its competitive position through strategic initiatives and is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities arising from changes in global trade policies [21][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the operating environment, noting potential headwinds from new tariff policies but maintaining a stable volume outlook for the year [9][18] - The company is addressing excess capacity in Europe through temporary curtailments and is consulting with local works councils regarding long-term restructuring actions [8][9] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in reducing inventory, down approximately $225 million from the same time last year, and is on track to meet its year-end target of less than fifty days of inventory [16] - The company is leveraging its extensive glass network in the U.S. to enhance competitiveness, particularly in light of tariff dynamics affecting aluminum and imports from China [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about any pre-buy effects and the volume impact? - Management indicated that pre-buying had a limited impact on the stronger volume in the first quarter, with most strength attributed to underlying demand [27][28] Question: Are we looking at negative volumes in April? - Management noted a slight decline in volumes in April, adjusted for Easter, but emphasized that the overall outlook remains stable for the year [29][30] Question: Can you provide insights on volume progress by end market? - Management reported strong volume growth across most categories in The Americas, with beer and spirits performing particularly well, while Europe saw mixed results [42][44] Question: What are the drivers behind the realignment of French operations? - Management explained that the focus is on aligning assets with market opportunities, particularly in the premium segment, while continuing to invest in key markets like France [48][49] Question: Have you seen signs of aluminum tariffs impacting customer conversations? - Management acknowledged that while there is potential for shifts towards glass due to aluminum tariffs, it is still early to see significant impacts [52][53] Question: How do you expect net price headwinds to trend throughout the year? - Management indicated that net price headwinds are expected to be front-end loaded, with a moderation anticipated in the second half of the year [60][61] Question: How are you managing energy costs and raw materials? - Management confirmed favorable long-term energy contracts and emphasized a value chain approach to manage raw material costs effectively [74][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share, down from the previous year but exceeding management's expectations due to stronger sales volume and Fit to Win benefits [4][14] - Shipments increased by more than 4% compared to last year, reflecting a gradual recovery in market conditions [4][6] - The Fit to Win program generated savings of $61 million in the first quarter, contributing significantly to better-than-expected results [4][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Segment operating profit improved significantly in The Americas, driven by strong demand and strategic initiatives, while results in Europe trended down due to lower net prices and temporary production downtime [4][15] - In The Americas, sales volume grew nearly 4%, with strong performance in beer and spirits, while Europe saw a slight increase in volume but faced competitive pricing pressures [6][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments in The Americas were up more than 4%, with inventory normalization and structural demand improvement in Latin America [6][7] - In Europe, volumes increased nearly 4% driven by customer inventory rebuilding, but there were challenges due to excess capacity and temporary curtailments [7][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reaffirming its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings to improve between 50% to 85% from 2024 levels [5][17] - The Fit to Win program aims to reduce total enterprise costs and optimize the network to support future profitable growth, with a target of $250 million in savings for 2025 [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the year, noting that while there are anticipated headwinds, the company is well-positioned to manage elements within its control [5][23] - The impact of changing global trade policies is uncertain, but the company believes it can capitalize on domestic production advantages [21][22] Other Important Information - The company is addressing excess capacity in Europe through temporary curtailments and is consulting with local works councils regarding long-term restructuring actions [7][15] - The company has made significant progress in reducing inventory, which is down approximately $225 million from the same time last year [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about any pre-buy effects and volume impacts? - Management indicated that pre-buying had a limited impact on the stronger volume in the quarter, with stronger sales seen in January and February [30] Question: What is the outlook for volumes in April? - Volumes were down about 1% or 2% in April, but overall, the company maintains a stable volume outlook for the year [31][32] Question: Can you provide insights on volume progress by end market? - Strong volume growth was reported across most categories in The Americas, particularly in beer and spirits, while Europe saw mixed results with some softness in spirits [44][45] Question: What are the plans for French operations given the slowdown in wine? - The company is realigning its operations to focus on premium products, while continuing to invest in key markets like France [50][51] Question: How are tariffs on aluminum seen as an opportunity? - Management noted that if aluminum prices increase, it could help close the cost gap with glass, but they are focused on improving their cost base independently of tariffs [54][57] Question: What is the expected trend for net price and operating costs throughout the year? - Net price pressures are expected to moderate in the second half of the year, while curtailment costs are also anticipated to decrease [62][63] Question: How is the company managing energy costs? - The company has favorable long-term energy contracts and is well-positioned for the current year, with ongoing efforts to manage future energy costs [78][81]

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/4/22 | 2025/4/28 | | 2025/4/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/4/22 | 2025/4/28 | | 2025/4/29 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1290.0 | 1340.0 | 1350.0 | 60.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1274.0 | 1319.0 | 1329.0 | 55.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1290.0 | 1340.0 | 1350.0 | 60.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1335.0 | 1368.0 | 1387.0 | 52.0 | 19.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1315.0 | 1364.0 | 1376.0 | 61.0 | 12.0 | | 青 ...

浮法玻璃在产日熔量为15.78万吨，环比-0.44%万吨。浮法玻璃周产量110.58吨，环比-0.32%，同 比-9.32%。浮法玻璃开工率为75.85%，环比+0.19%，产能利用率为78.78%，环比-0.25%。 据悉，湖北三峡新型建材股份有限公司三线设计产能600吨原产白玻改产殴灰于4月20日正色。株洲醴陵 旗滨玻璃有限公司四线600吨4月25日放水。 4月30日，国内期市能化板块涨幅居前。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报1106.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，玻璃主力最高触及1111.00元，下方探低1079.00元，跌幅达2.69%。 4月29日，郑商所玻璃期货仓单2441张，环比上个交易日持平。 后市来看，玻璃期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 金信期货指出，当下日融处于较低位置，现货产销虽有所好转，但厂库仍在高位，下游深加工订单补库 动力不强，需求持续放量仍待地产刺激效果显现或重大政策出台。技术面上，今日再创新低，短期震荡 偏空思路不变，临近假期做好风险控制。 中信建投（601066）期货表示，短期玻璃供应高于需求，供应端对价格影响偏空。近期玻璃下游需求环 比略降，投机 ...

二、前10名无限售条件股东持股情况 一、主要会计数据和财务指标 | 报告期指标 | 2025年一季报 | 2024年一季报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2023年一季报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | 0.0500 | 0.0100 | 400 | -0.0700 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.74 | 3.62 | 3.31 | 3.67 | | 每股公积金(元) | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0 | 1.3 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 0.92 | 0.80 | 15 | 0.86 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 12.62 | 13.34 | -5.4 | 10.41 | | 净利润(亿元) | 0.43 | 0.12 | 258.33 | -0.66 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.23 | 0.36 | 241.67 | -1.91 | 数据四舍五入，查看更多财务数据>> 三、分红送配方案情况 本次公司不分配不转赠。 前十大流通股东累计持有： 56727.66万股 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨南玻 A（000012.SZ） [Table_Title] 光伏玻璃放量，期待景气改善 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年公司实现收入 154.55 亿，同降 15.1%；实现归属净利润 2.67 亿，同降 83.9%； 实现扣非归母净利润 1.21 亿，同降 92.1%。 2025Q1 实现收入 30.69 亿，同降 22.3%；实现归属净利润 0.16 亿，同比下滑 95.1%；实现扣 非归母净利润亏损 0.15 亿，同降 105.1%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 李浩 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490520080026 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 南玻 A（000012.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 光伏玻璃放量，期待景气改善 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司 2024 年公司实现收入 154.55 亿，同降 15.1%；实现归属净利润 2.67 亿，同降 ...

耀皮玻璃：2025年第一季度净利润4266.45万元，同比增长251.98% 金十数据4月29日讯，耀皮玻璃公告，2025年第一季度营收为12.62亿元，同比下降5.40%；净利润为 4266.45万元，同比增长251.98%。 ...

证券研究报告 亚玛顿 (002623 CH) 布局海外产能，关注钙钛矿/超薄玻璃 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 玻璃 | 公司公布 24 年及 25Q1 业绩：24 年收入/归母净利 28.9/-1.3 亿元，同比 -20.3%/-2.1 亿元，24 年业绩符合业绩预告中值（-1.35 亿元）。25Q1 公司 收入/归母净利 5.6/0.05 亿元，同比-36.8%/-58.3%，收入及盈利下滑但毛利 率同环比改善，公司在超薄玻璃等产品上具备差异化优势，维持"增持"。 电子玻璃销量收入及毛利率明显提升，25Q1 毛利率同环比改善 24 年公司太阳能玻璃/太阳能组件/电力销售/电子玻璃及其他玻璃产品实现 收入 26.2/0.4/0.5/1.6 亿元，同比-20.2%/-76.8%/-6.1%/+68.7%，毛利率分 别为 2.8%/-2.0%/28.7%/11.7%，同比-4.2/-5.7/-1.7/+11.4pct，光伏玻璃量 增价减毛利率下滑，特斯拉储能门玻璃产品订单增长带动电子玻璃销量及毛 利率明显提升。2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for FY 2024, with a significant drop in net profit year-over-year, while Q1 2025 showed a slight recovery in net profit despite a decrease in revenue [1][5]. Financial Performance - FY 2024 revenue was 15.65 billion yuan, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.21% and 78% respectively [1]. - Q1 2025 revenue was 3.48 billion yuan, with a net profit of 470 million yuan, showing a year-over-year decrease of 9.7% but a 6.4% increase in net profit [1]. - The company made impairment provisions of 298.62 million yuan, impacting net profit by 244.67 million yuan after tax [1]. Business Segments - Float glass and energy-saving glass revenue for FY 2024 was 6.86 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, down 24% and 13% year-over-year respectively [2]. - The average selling price for float glass was 640 yuan per heavy box, down 19% year-over-year, while energy-saving glass saw a price increase of 9% to 776 yuan per square meter [2]. - Solar glass revenue increased by 69% to 5.75 billion yuan, with sales of 45.741 million square meters, benefiting from an increase in production capacity [2]. Profitability - The overall gross margin for FY 2024 was 15.5%, a decline of 9.5 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to falling prices [3]. - Q1 2025 gross margin was 12%, down 14 percentage points year-over-year but up 6.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. Capacity Expansion - As of the end of FY 2024, the company operated 24 float glass production lines with a daily capacity of 16,600 tons, 9 solar glass production lines with a capacity of 10,600 tons, and several other specialized production lines [4]. - The company has over 200 million tons of available silica sand resources, indicating strong scale and raw material advantages [4]. Long-term Outlook - The company is viewed positively for its long-term growth potential, maintaining a "buy" rating despite lowering profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 750 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 1.53 billion yuan respectively, revised down from previous estimates [5].