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海外研究|“Fed Put”难以指望,不见“Trump Put”不撒鹰
中信证券研究· 2025-04-07 01:20
Core Viewpoint - The March 2025 non-farm payroll data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, with healthcare services and leisure hospitality being the main contributors. The slight increase in the unemployment rate is primarily due to a rise in labor force participation, indicating a healthy job market overall, although there are signs of marginal weakening [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000 and the revised previous value of 117,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, slightly above the expected 4.1% and the previous 4.1%. Year-on-year wage growth was 3.8%, below expectations and the previous value of 4%, while month-on-month growth was 0.3%, consistent with expectations and higher than the revised previous value of 0.2% [2][3]. Sector Contributions - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 and the revised previous value of 116,000. Job gains were seen across various sectors, with the goods-producing sector adding 12,000 jobs and the service sector adding 197,000 jobs. Notably, education and healthcare services contributed 77,800 jobs, while leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate in March was 62.5%, higher than the previous and expected values of 62.4%. The slight increase in the unemployment rate was attributed to this rise in participation, with the unemployment rate moving from 4.139% in February to 4.152% in March [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The March employment data did not raise concerns for the Federal Reserve, which prioritized inflation risks over economic growth pressures. Powell's statements indicated no intention for risk management-style rate cuts similar to those in 2019, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising inflation concerns [6][7]. Market Implications - The significant increase in non-farm payrolls and the slight rise in unemployment are viewed as a "calm before the storm" regarding tariff impacts. The market consensus suggests that the current employment data may not provide sufficient safety margins due to the unexpected breadth and depth of Trump's tariff increases, which could lead to economic adjustments [7][8]. Future Outlook - In the absence of a "Trump Put," market sentiment is expected to remain subdued, continuing to adjust in a "stagflation-like environment." The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks may hinder any immediate easing measures, despite favorable employment data [8][9].
消费市场“春意浓”:零售业景气指数上升,消费活力稳步提升
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-04-06 10:05
Group 1 - The retail industry in China shows signs of improvement with a retail prosperity index of 50.5% in April, up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month [1] - The increase in the retail index is driven by seasonal promotions and trade-in activities, indicating a steady rise in consumer vitality [1] - The first quarter of this year saw a significant acceleration in China's consumer market, aided by effective consumption policies and the effects of the Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 2 - Offline consumption has rapidly rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2% in the offline consumption heat index for the first quarter, an increase of 9.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] - In March, offline consumption grew by 20.0% year-on-year, indicating a continuous upward trend [3] - Growth rates for different city tiers in March were 19.6% for first-tier cities, 11.4% for second-tier cities, and 20.2% for third-tier and below [3] Group 3 - The small commodity market's operational heat index increased by 16.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, with March showing a 21.6% increase, reflecting strong demand for daily necessities [5] - The life service consumption heat index rose by 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a 14.5% increase in March, indicating a recovery in life service consumption [5] - The leisure and catering industries experienced significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 67.6% and 14.5%, respectively [5] Group 4 - The Qingming Festival saw a surge in travel enthusiasm, with internet search heat for related keywords increasing over fourfold recently [7] - Diverse consumption scenarios such as flower viewing, suburban travel, and cultural experience tours are further releasing consumer potential, contributing to the ongoing recovery of the domestic market [7]
国美零售(00493)2024年战略转型加速拓展轻资产模式 存货周转效率大幅提升
智通财经网· 2025-03-31 14:11
Core Insights - Gome Retail reported a revenue of RMB 474 million for 2024, with a gross profit of RMB 73.68 million and other income and gains of approximately RMB 1.055 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.87% [1] - The company's inventory decreased by 40.59% year-on-year to RMB 120 million, leading to a reduction in inventory turnover days from 245 days to 147 days [1] - The growth in other income and gains was primarily due to gains from debt restructuring, disposal of properties and equipment, and increases in certain subsidiaries and usage rights assets [1] Strategic Focus - In 2024, the company aims to focus on retail and home service sectors, pursuing debt resolution, strategic transformation, and the launch of new businesses to gradually restore growth momentum [1] - The company plans to leverage the V-shaped economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by significant government stimulus policies, to enhance its efforts in franchise models and business innovation [1] - The company is committed to actively resolving debts and accelerating the expansion of a light asset model while focusing on new growth points [2] Future Plans - Management intends to expedite the implementation of debt resolution plans with major creditors [2] - The company aims to achieve over a thousand franchise agreements, aspiring to become an industry-leading comprehensive service provider integrating offline and online franchise networks, supply chains, funding chains, industry chains, and service chains [2] - In the automotive sector, the company plans to establish its first offline new-type comprehensive car market, set up an automotive live sales center, and initiate the development of an online auction platform for used car exports [2]
茂业商业: 茂业商业2024年度独立董事述职报告-郭文捷
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-03-26 15:11
茂业商业: 茂业商业2024年度独立董事述职报告-郭 文捷 (一)个人基本情况 郭文捷:本科学历,经济师、审计师、注册会计师。曾任国家审计署驻深圳 特派员办事处科员、副主任科员、主任科员,中央政府驻香港特别行政区联络办 公室主任科员、副调研员、副处长,国家审计署驻深圳特派员办事处境外审计处 副处长、社保审计处副处长、财政审计处副处长、法规处正处级审计员、法规处 二级调研员、法规审理处一级调研员,广东文化长城集团股份有限公司独立董事。 现任数据堂(北京)科技股份有限公司独立董事、茂业商业股份有限公司独立董 事。 二、独立董事年度履职概况 (一)参加董事会和股东大会情况 《公司股东大会议事规则》、《公司董事会议事规则》的规定和要求,以现场或 通讯方式参加了公司全部董事会及股东大会,无授权委托其他独立董事出席会议 或缺席情况。本人认真审阅会议材料,积极参与各项议题的讨论并提出合理建议, 并在此基础上独立、客观、审慎地行使表决权。本人对本年度董事会审议的各项 议案均投赞成票,无提出异议的事项,也无反对、弃权的情形。2024 年,本人 出席董事会和股东大会的具体情况如下: 茂业商业股份有限公司 郭文捷 作为茂业商业股份 ...
太恶心!“活的,正在爬”……又是山姆!
21世纪经济报道· 2025-03-19 08:49
近日,重庆一名消费者发帖称,其在山姆会员商店购买的一箱牛奶塑封内发现多只黑色小飞虫,再次引起热议。 3月1 8日,山姆会员商店重庆渝北门店工作人员回应,目前尚不了解相关情况,具体解决方案将直接与消费者沟通,暂不对外透露。 据 消 费 者 王 女 士 ( 化 姓 ) 介 绍 , 她 于 3 月 1 7 日 通 过 山 姆 APP 下 单 , 在 重 庆 渝 北 山 姆 会 员 商 店 购 买 了 一 箱 山 姆 自 有 品 牌 的 全 脂 牛 奶 ( 德 国 进 口,3 0盒2 0 0mL,售价6 9 . 8元)。她表示,收到货后拆封时, 发现塑封包装内有多只黑色小飞虫,其中部分为活虫,正在爬动。"塑封完全 不敢打开,担心虫子飞出来。 " 王女士说。 图 / 公众号"杭州交通918" 此后,山姆店方同意退货,但王女士对处理结果表示不满。她称:"我要求退货并退一赔三, 但 客服反馈只能退货款并赔5 0元代金券。 交 涉过程让我非常疲惫,无奈之下只能暂时接受这个方案。" 3月1 8日,山姆APP上,该款牛奶在重庆渝北区 仍在正常销售中。 山姆APP显示,此次的涉事商品是山姆自有品牌的全脂牛奶,宣称德国进 口,为"山 ...
年收入20万不到的别申购了
猫笔刀· 2024-12-12 14:16
今天a股成交1.86万亿,中位数上涨0.66%,今天让人感到欣慰的是大盘股小盘股涨势均衡,并没有出现冷热不均的情况。 | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅% | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1B0016 | 上证50 | +0.96% | 2702.27 | | 2 | 399300 | 沪深 300 | +0.99% | 4028.50 | | ന | 1B0688 | 科创 50 | +0.37% | 1010.90 | | ব | 399006 | 创业板指 | +1.35% | 2292.15 | | 5 | 399905 | 中证 500 | +0.88% | 6100.39 | | 6 | 1B0852 | 中证1000 | +0.66% | 6490.15 | | 7 | 932000 | 中证 2000 | +1.07% | 2663.79 | | 8 | 883418 | 微营股 | +2.06% | 1405.22 | 其中一个很重要的因素是今天有大量资金流入消费相关的板块,零售业+5.6%,乳业+5.2%、白酒+3.4%、食品加工+4 ...
三态股份:首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市之上市公告书提示性公告
2023-09-26 13:56
深圳市三态电子商务股份有限公司 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市之 上市公告书提示性公告 保荐人(主承销商):中信证券股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、上市概况 经深圳证券交易所(以下简称"深交所")审核同意,深圳市三态电子商务股份有 限公司(以下简称"三态股份"、"发行人"或"本公司")发行的人民币普通股股票将 于 2023 年 9 月 28 日在深交所创业板上市,上市公告书全文和首次公开发行股票并在创 业板上市的招股说明书全文披露于中国证券监督管理委员会指定信息披露网站:巨潮资 讯网(www.cninfo.com.cn)、中证网(www.cs.com.cn)、中国证券网(www.cnstock.com)、 证券时报网(www.stcn.com)、证券日报网(www.zqrb.cn)和经济参考网(www.jjckb.cn), 供投资者查阅。 所属网页二维码:巨潮资讯网 ,供投资者查阅。 (一)股票简称:三态股份 (二)股票代码:301558 (三)首次公开发行后总股本:788,851,223 股 (四)首次公开发行股票数量:11 ...
致欧科技:首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市之上市公告书
2023-06-19 12:42
致欧家居科技股份有限公司 上市公告书 股票简称:致欧科技 股票代码:301376 致欧家居科技股份有限公司 Ziel Home Furnishing Technology Co., Ltd. (郑州市二七区嵩山南路 198-19 号东方大厦 6 楼 601 号) 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 之 上市公告书 保荐人(主承销商) (广东省广州市黄埔区中新广州知识城腾飞一街 2 号 618 室) 二零二三年六月 1 致欧家居科技股份有限公司 上市公告书 特别提示 致欧家居科技股份有限公司 上市公告书 第一节 重要声明与提示 一、重要声明与提示 本公司及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员保证上市公告书的真实性、准确性、 完整性,承诺上市公告书不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并依法承 担法律责任。 深圳证券交易所、有关政府机关对本公司股票上市及有关事项的意见,均不 表明对本公司的任何保证。 致欧家居科技股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"、"本公司"、"发行人" 或"致欧科技")股票将于 2023 年 6 月 21 日在深圳证券交易所创业板上市。 创业板公司具有业绩不稳定、经营风险高、退市风险高等特点,投资者面临 较大 ...
华人健康:首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市之上市公告书
2023-02-27 13:06
股票简称:华人健康 股票代码:301408 安徽华人健康医药股份有限公司 (Anhui Huaren Health Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.) (合肥市包河工业区上海路 18 号) 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 之 上市公告书 保荐机构(主承销商) (深圳市前海深港合作区南山街道桂湾五路128号前海深港基金小镇B7栋401) 2023 年 2 月 1 特别提示 本公司提醒投资者应充分了解股票市场风险及本公司披露的风险因素,在新 股上市初期切忌盲目跟风"炒新",应当审慎决策、理性投资。 如无特别说明,本上市公告书中的简称或名词的释义与本公司首次公开发行 股票并在创业板上市招股说明书相同。 2 第一节 重要声明与提示 一、本次发行的基本情况 本公司及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员保证上市公告书的真实性、准确性、 完整性,承诺上市公告书不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并依法承 担法律责任。 深圳证券交易所、有关政府机关对本公司股票上市及有关事项的意见,均不 表明对本公司的任何保证。 本公司提醒广大投资者认真阅读刊载于巨潮资讯网(www.cninfo.com.cn); 中证网(www. ...
华人健康:首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市发行公告
2023-02-16 12:38
安徽华人健康医药股份有限公司 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 发行公告 保荐机构(主承销商):华泰联合证券有限责任公司 特别提示 根据中国证监会制定的《上市公司行业分类指引》(2012 年修订),安徽华 人健康医药股份有限公司(以下简称"华人健康"、"发行人"或"公司")所处行业 为"批发和零售业"(F),其中医药批发板块属于细分行业"批发业(F51)";医 药零售板块属于细分行业"零售业(F52)"。截至 2023 年 2 月 14 日(T-4 日), 中证指数有限公司发布的"批发业(F51)"及"零售业(F52)"最近一个月平均 静态市盈率为 13.33 倍及 22.35 倍。本次发行价格 16.24 元/股对应的发行人 2021 年扣除非经常性损益前后孰低的归属于母公司股东的净利润摊薄后市盈率为 106.19 倍,高于中证指数有限公司 2023 年 2 月 14 日(T-4 日)发布的"批发业 (F51)"最近一个月平均静态市盈率,超出幅度为 696.62%,也高于中证指数有 限公司 2023 年 2 月 14 日(T-4 日)发布的"零售业(F52)"最近一个月平均静 态市盈率,超出幅度为 375.1 ...