Group 1: Luxury Goods Industry - The luxury goods sector in Q3 2025 showed better-than-expected performance, particularly in North America, with a slight improvement in consumption in mainland China [3][4] - Major brands like LVMH, Hermès, KERING, and PRADA reported revenue changes of +1.0%, +9.6%, -5.0%, and +8.5% respectively, all exceeding consensus expectations [3] - Miu Miu led the industry with a 29% revenue increase, while Hermès maintained a steady growth trend with a 9.6% increase [3] Group 2: Retail Performance in China - In September, China's retail sales for clothing and textiles grew by 4.7% month-on-month, indicating a faster pace compared to August [5] - The online retail sales of clothing items increased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to September, showing an acceleration in growth [5] - The export of Swiss watches showed a month-on-month improvement, with a 17.8% increase in exports to China, recovering from a significant decline in the previous year [5] Group 3: Adidas and Deckers Financial Guidance - Adidas reported Q3 revenue of €6.63 billion, with a neutral year-on-year growth of 8%, but raised its full-year revenue guidance to a neutral growth of 9%, below the consensus of 10% [4] - Deckers' FY26 Q2 revenue was $1.43 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, but its full-year guidance of $5.35 billion fell short of the consensus expectation of $5.45 billion [4] - Deckers anticipates that tariff impacts will become more pronounced in the second half of FY26, affecting consumer attitudes [4] Group 4: Tobacco Industry Trends - The new type of oral tobacco products, combining heated non-combustible and vaporized electronic cigarette characteristics, is gaining popularity globally [10] - The market for new oral tobacco products is expected to grow due to lower tax rates and less intense competition compared to vaporized electronic cigarettes [10][11] - PMI's $16 billion acquisition of ZYN's parent company and the FDA's approval of ZYN products are expected to catalyze industry growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's third-quarter revenue increased by 9% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, totaling €1.33 billion, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for the year down by 7.5% to €880 million due to adverse foreign exchange impacts and anticipated additional loans for the acquisition of Versace, which will raise financial costs [1] - Revenue and EBIT forecasts for the current year have been reduced by 6.1% and 6.9%, respectively, to €5.731 billion and €1.359 billion [1] - For the next year, revenue forecasts have been lowered by 9.6% to €6.155 billion, with EBIT and net profit forecasts adjusted down by 13.2% and 14.1%, respectively, to €1.492 billion and €976 million [1] Market Position - The company maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 75 despite the competitive landscape becoming more intense [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for Hermès, indicating an "Outperform" rating for the stock over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - Hermès reported Q3 FY25 revenue of €3.9 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth at constant exchange rates, with a cumulative revenue of €11.9 billion for the first nine months, up 9% at constant rates [8][12]. - The company continues to show resilience in a high base environment, with strong performance across various regions and product categories [5][12]. Regional Performance - The Asian market (excluding Japan) grew by 4% year-on-year, with significant improvements in Greater China due to brand loyalty and optimized store networks [2][9]. - Japan's market saw a remarkable 15% growth, primarily driven by local customer repurchases [2][9]. - The Americas experienced a 13% increase, supported by new store openings in the U.S. [2][9]. - Europe also performed well, with a 12% growth excluding France and 9% growth in France [2][9]. - The Middle East and other regions maintained a high growth trend of 15% [2][9]. Product Category Performance - Hermès's core leather goods and saddlery segment grew by 13% year-on-year, driven by popular product lines [3][10]. - The perfume and beauty segment declined by 5% due to a high base effect from the previous year [3][10]. - The watchmaking division maintained solid momentum, with plans for capacity expansion [3][10]. - Jewelry and homeware continued to show strong growth, increasing by 11% year-on-year [3][10]. Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic for Q4, noting positive trends in early October and strong sales during the Golden Week holiday [5][12]. - The company plans to open 3-4 new stores annually over the next two years while renovating around 15 existing stores [5][12]. - Operating margin is expected to remain around 40%, with capital expenditures increasing to support growth initiatives [5][12]. - The brand's strong customer loyalty and disciplined channel management are expected to support medium- to long-term growth [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Prada's Q3 total sales reached €1.33 billion, exceeding market expectations, but lowers profit forecasts due to adverse foreign exchange factors and increased financial costs from the anticipated acquisition of Versace [1] Financial Performance - Prada's Q3 total sales: €1.33 billion, surpassing market expectations [1] - CICC reduces Prada's full-year profit forecast by 7.5% to €880 million [1] - Adjustments made to full-year revenue and EBIT forecasts: €5.731 billion and €1.359 billion respectively [1] Future Outlook - CICC lowers next year's revenue forecast by 9.6% to €6.155 billion due to intensified market competition [1] - EBIT and profit forecasts for the same period are reduced by 13.2% and 14.1% respectively [1] - Despite the adjustments, CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Prada with a target price of HKD 75 [1]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Oct 2025 开云集团 Kering (KER FP) 3Q25 核心品牌与主要市场环比改善，结构优化推动修复拐点显现 Core Brands and Key Markets Show Sequential Recovery in 3Q25, Structural Optimization Drives an Inflection Point 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：10 月 22 日，开云集团发布 3Q2025 业绩。集团收入同比下降 10%；可比门店增速-5%，汇率带来约 5 个百分 点负面影响。各主要品牌与地区均实现环比改善，北美与西欧表现最佳。 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销， ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about cash devaluation are prevalent, but the fastest depreciating assets in the next five years may not be cash, but rather real estate, automobiles, luxury goods, and university degrees [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate - Since 2022, the Chinese real estate market has entered a deep adjustment period, with average national housing prices down approximately 30% from historical highs, and some third and fourth-tier cities experiencing declines exceeding 60% [8]. - Future housing price trends will show divergence, with second and third-tier cities likely to see a slowdown in declines, while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further downward pressure to align prices with local income levels [9]. Group 2: Automobiles - By 2025, the automotive market is expected to see intensified price wars, with domestic mid-range cars dropping by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan and imported luxury brands decreasing by nearly 100,000 yuan [11]. - The second-hand car market is also affected, with significant depreciation observed; for instance, a car purchased for 260,000 yuan last year may only be worth 160,000 yuan now, indicating a 100,000 yuan drop in value [11]. Group 3: Luxury Goods - The global luxury goods consumer base has shrunk by 50 million over the past two years, with 65.9% of consumers actively reducing luxury purchases due to perceived low value for money [12]. - Economic downturns have led to a shift in consumer attitudes, with many middle-class individuals prioritizing practicality and cost-effectiveness over brand prestige, prompting brands like Gucci and Burberry to implement significant price reductions [12]. Group 4: University Degrees - The value of university degrees has rapidly depreciated due to the proliferation of higher education, with over 10 million graduates entering the job market annually, diminishing the degree's status as a key to high-income employment [12].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Prada's sales in Q3 this year grew by 8.5% at constant exchange rates, slightly above market consensus [1] - Retail sales met market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, driven primarily by the volatile wholesale channel [1] - Prada remains one of the fastest-growing groups this fiscal quarter, with growth rates nearly comparable to Hermès, significantly outpacing French luxury giants LVMH and Kering [1] - However, market reaction is expected to be relatively muted, as Prada's revenue barely meets market expectations, unlike most peers [1] Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley has revised its revenue growth forecast for the group in 2025 down to 6.6% from an original estimate of 8.5% [1] - The EBIT margin is expected to remain at 23.4% [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026 have been reduced by 0.6% [1] - The target price is maintained at HKD 53 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Prada's third-quarter sales exceeded expectations, with total sales of €1.33 billion and an organic sales growth (OSG) of 9%, both surpassing market consensus [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Prada's total sales for the third quarter reached €1.33 billion [1] - The organic sales growth (OSG) for the same period was 9%, indicating strong performance [1] Group 2: Market Position and Outlook - Despite the strong third-quarter sales, the growth momentum in retail for Prada is considered moderate compared to peers that have reported results [1] - UBS does not expect this performance to significantly boost investor sentiment in the short term [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - UBS maintains a 12-month target price for Prada at HK$74 and rates the stock as "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's retail sales for Q3 2025 met market expectations, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.6% at constant exchange rates, with the Prada and Miu Miu brands performing in line with expectations [1] Sales Performance - Prada's retail sales decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, while Miu Miu's sales increased by 29% year-on-year [1] - Over a two-year period, both brands demonstrated stable quarterly performance, with Prada's core brand showing a year-on-year growth of 1% in both Q2 and Q3 of this year, and Miu Miu showing significant growth of 136% and 134% respectively [1] Market Insights - The Chinese market for Prada's core brand is still experiencing negative growth, but there has been a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q3 [1] - Positive growth was observed in the Americas, Europe, and Japan, driven by strong local demand and slightly improved tourism demand [1] - Management believes that the worst period in China has passed, and sales have continued to improve since October [1] Future Outlook - The management cautioned that the fourth quarter will be challenging due to tough comparisons, and the last six weeks of the year will be crucial for performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of a minority stake in Maybach Luxury Goods Asia Pacific (MAP) by Lao Feng Xiang for $24 million raises questions about the necessity and rationale behind such a high premium valuation, especially since MAP has not yet commenced operations and was only established in February of this year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Lao Feng Xiang plans to invest $24 million to acquire 20% of MAP through its subsidiary, Lao Feng Xiang Hong Kong Limited, with the goal of expanding into the luxury market [2]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has raised concerns regarding the high premium valuation of MAP, which is reported to have an extraordinary valuation increase of 9,692,207.69% [1][5]. - MAP aims to open 75 stores within six years, leveraging the brand's existing global presence in 75 countries and a compound annual growth rate of 36.5% over the past four years [3][6]. Group 2: Market and Operational Risks - Lao Feng Xiang acknowledges potential risks associated with buyout-style procurement, including unsold inventory and the stability of brand licensing [3][4]. - Cultural differences, market competition, and changing consumer demands are identified as factors that could negatively impact future operations [3][4]. - The investment agreement does not include installment payment terms, which Lao Feng Xiang claims is to mitigate risks associated with transaction completion [4]. Group 3: Valuation Methodology - The valuation report indicates that MAP's equity value is estimated at $126 million using the income approach, with a significant valuation premium compared to its book value of $1,300 [5][6]. - Lao Feng Xiang defends the use of the income approach for valuation, citing the brand's established market presence and the structured distribution model that mitigates retail risks [6][7]. - Experts highlight that the high valuation may reflect the brand's luxury status and the potential growth in the Asia-Pacific luxury market, but caution against the risks of brand value collapse [8].