2025.04. 11 作者 | 第一财经 下午市场零距离 第一财经《市场零距离》节目与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰就A股市场现状、板块投资机遇及出口 企业挑战进行了深入讨论。 在当下复杂的全球经济形势下，特朗普关税政策引发的市场动荡备受瞩目，A股市场的走向成为各方 关注焦点。为此，第一财经《市场零距离》节目就相关市场问题，与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰在 4月7日当天展开了深度对话，全面剖析A股市场现状、板块投资机遇以及出口企业面临的挑战与前 景。 徐驰指出，当前市场波动显著，从全球范围来看，A股市场展现出了一定韧性。尽管今日盘面呈现大 幅低开且整体走势较弱的态势，但对比全球主要市场，A股部分指数表现相对突出。例如，近期纳斯 本文字数：1484，阅读时长大约3分钟 达克连续三天大幅下跌，累计跌幅近15%，若从今年年初至今计算，在特朗普关税政策实施前就已有 近20%的跌幅，整体跌幅超30%。而A股指数的下跌幅度在全球市场中处于相对较好的水平。 综合来看，受全球经济形势的影响，A股市场目前处于调整阶段。特朗普关税政策不仅引发了全球流 动性风险，导致包括黄金在内的避险资产价格下跌，还对过去40年的全球贸易秩序造成冲击 ...

惠誉：预计2025年零售销售（不包括汽车和燃气）以及消费品收入将保持平稳或略微下降。 ...

美股仓位对基金经理的负贡献，或导致QDII产品加速切换国别仓位。券商中国记者注意到，以美国为核心仓 位的QDII基金目前处于业绩垫底状态，而近期关税引发的美股暴跌则进一步加剧了业绩压力，这使得国别资 产配置策略成为QDII基金业绩强弱的关键，考虑到许多QDII在基金合同上并未强制捆绑美股，甚至未设置美 股仓位的最低限度，这意味着QDII基金加速国别仓位切换或成为二季度基金经理的操作趋势，尤其是部分在 港股和A股处于严重低配的QDII基金。 更为关键的是，中国反制来了。4月4日，国务院关税税则委员会、商务部、海关总署接连发布多项对美反制 措施。其中，4月10日12时01分起，国务院关税税则委员会对原产于美国的进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基 础上加征34%关税。 相关人士判断，关税冲突可能吸引更多未上车的资金在市场波动中，择机南下购入港股。诺安基金国际部人士 认为，港股市场短期内仍将面临一定波动。不过，中长期来看，港股市场配置价值依旧较高。在国内扩内需、 稳消费等政策刺激下，消费行业业绩有望改善，促进消费股上涨，科技政策支持与产业趋势共振，科技板块有 望持续上涨 。 美股暴跌重创QDII净值 在极端恐慌情绪下，美 ...

Market News - US stock indices collectively declined, with the Nasdaq down 0.53%, Dow down 0.37%, and S&P 500 down 0.33% [1] - GameStop fell over 22%, while major tech stocks showed mixed results; Nvidia down over 2%, Google and Meta down over 1%, and Apple up over 1% [1] - Gold prices rose 1.21% to $3055.52 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures up 1.54% to $3069.1 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [1] - International oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude up 0.37% to $69.91 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.41% to $73.36 per barrel [1] Industry Insights - US robotics companies, including Tesla and Boston Dynamics, urged Congress to initiate a national robotics strategy to enhance global competitiveness in the robotics sector [2] - The market for embodied intelligence, which integrates AI into physical robots, is expected to grow significantly, potentially exceeding $1 trillion by 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a digital transformation plan for the light industry, aiming for 90% adoption of digital design tools by 2027 [3] - The approval of TROP2 ADC drug for lung cancer marks a significant achievement for China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, which is increasingly recognized for its advancements [4] - The price of strontium carbonate has surged, reaching a peak of 15,500 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions from major international producers [5][6] Company Updates - Joyoung Co., Ltd. reported a 7.94% decline in revenue for 2024, totaling 8.849 billion yuan, with a net profit drop of 68.55% [7] - Air China announced a revenue increase of 18.14% for 2024, reaching 166.699 billion yuan, but reported a net loss of 237 million yuan [7] - Tigermed Consulting Co., Ltd. experienced a 10.58% decrease in revenue for 2024, totaling 6.603 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 79.99% [7] - Lier Chemical Co., Ltd. reported a 6.87% drop in revenue for 2024, amounting to 7.311 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 64.34% [7] - Xinghuo Technology announced a shareholder's plan to reduce holdings by up to 49.8442 million shares, representing 3% of the total share capital [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a "wish economy" driven by Lei Jun, where entrepreneurs are responding to consumer demands expressed in his social media comments, particularly in the context of product development and market opportunities [3][8][31]. Group 1: Lei Jun's Influence and the Wish Economy - Lei Jun has transformed his social media comment section into a "wish pool," where users express desires for various products, leading to entrepreneurial responses from others [3][9][31]. - The concept of the "wish economy" has led to the development of products like the dual-zone washing machine, which was created in response to user requests [5][6][24]. - Entrepreneurs like Chen Nian and Yu Minhong are capitalizing on this trend by launching products such as sanitary napkins, which were previously deemed unfeasible for Xiaomi to produce [11][12][15]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Consumer Trust - The sanitary napkin market has seen increased attention due to quality concerns raised during events like the 315 Consumer Rights Day, creating a demand for trustworthy products [10][15][18]. - The rise in female consumer engagement, as indicated by a 65% year-on-year increase in orders on Douyin, highlights a significant market opportunity for products targeting women [15][17]. - The trust in Lei Jun's brand and his ability to deliver quality products has led to a perception of him as a "savior" figure in the consumer market, further driving the wish economy [23][25][31]. Group 3: Entrepreneurial Responses and Market Dynamics - Chen Nian's and Yu Minhong's ventures into the sanitary napkin market are strategic moves to capture a growing segment of female consumers and rebuild brand trust after previous product failures [16][18]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as companies leverage Lei Jun's influence to gain market traction, with a focus on quality and affordability [24][31]. - The success of Xiaomi's ecosystem, which includes investments in over 430 companies, provides a robust supply chain that supports the development of new products in response to consumer wishes [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating on the MSCI China Index, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese market driven by advancements in AI technology [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI ASIC market is projected to grow from $12 billion in 2024 to $30 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 34% [55]. - The report notes that the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks has been strong, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has risen by 23.68% year-to-date, outperforming other major global indices [29][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dynamic asset allocation during the valuation recovery of Chinese assets, suggesting a barbell strategy of "technology + dividends" to capture market opportunities while mitigating risks [29][28]. Economic Data Summary - In January, the U.S. CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 2.9%, while the PPI rose by 3.5%, also exceeding the forecast of 3.2% [5][8]. - The report indicates that U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in January, marking the largest decline since March 2023, attributed to adverse weather conditions and persistent inflation affecting consumer confidence [8]. - In China, the CPI rose by 0.5% year-on-year in January, with a significant increase in service and food prices due to the Spring Festival [13][14]. The PPI, however, decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal factors and supply conditions [14]. Fund Performance - The report details that the Ruiyuan China Stock Fund has achieved a one-year return of 56.26%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which returned 37.38% during the same period [32][28]. - The fund's holdings are concentrated in consumer discretionary and internet sectors, with top positions including Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart [34][32].