高库存压力仍在，甲醇弱势运行 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年11月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止11月20日，鄂市煤矿开工率76%，榆林地区煤矿开工率46%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯 地区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量400万吨附近，需求尚可，坑口价坚挺。供应端，煤制甲醇 利润在320元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，美金价格持续下跌，进口维持顺挂，伊朗全部正常，非伊 开工小幅提升，外盘开工高位提升，欧美市场小幅下跌，中欧价差缩小，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗11月已装92万吨，伊朗让利招标， 出货积极，非伊货源依旧较多，贸易商低价抄底。需求端，MTO装置开工率回升，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置稳定；南京诚志1期29.5万 吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配套60万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MT ...

格隆汇11月21日丨渤海化学(600800.SH)公布，公司于2025年10月14日发布了《天津渤海化学股份有限 公司关于全资子公司PDH装置例行停产检修的公告》，披露了公司全资子公司天津渤海石化有限公司 （简称"渤海石化"）的PDH装置（60万吨/年）按照年度计划于2025年10月13日开始停产检修，预计检 修30天左右。检修期间公司组织有关力量按照检修计划有序开展检修工作，由于渤海石化厂区内新建丙 烯酸酯和高吸水性树脂新材料项目需求，渤海石化PDH装置需要与丙烯酸酯和高吸水性树脂新材料项目 进行设备及公用工程联调联试，为确保装置生产运行稳定，PDH装置检修周期需要延长一定时间，预计 PDH装置于2026年2月底恢复生产。 ...

有投资者问天奈科技，请问公司目前给韩国三星集团提供单壁碳纳米管，多壁碳纳米管吗？天奈科技在 互动平台表示，上述企业是公司客户。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差略走强，远月基差抬升。贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供 应商出货，11月在01贴水70附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4590~4690附近。12月初在01贴水65~68有成交，12月下在01贴水52 附近有成交，个别偏低。今日主流现货基差在01-70。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 空翻多 偏多 6、预期：近期贸易商活跃度偏低，不过个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差略有走强，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情况。 2、 ...

Market Overview - On November 18, the A-share market saw a general decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.16% [1] - The total market turnover was 19,261 billion RMB, showing a slight increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Index Performance - Among major indices, the STAR 50 Index rose by 0.29%, while other indices like the ChiNext 50 and the CSI 1000 saw declines of 1.11% and 1.00% respectively [2] - Year-to-date performance shows the STAR 20 Index up by 37.31%, while the ChiNext Index has increased by 49.90% [2] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, Media (1.60%), Computer (0.93%), and Electronics (0.12%) sectors showed the highest gains, while Coal (-3.17%), Electrical Equipment (-2.97%), and Steel (-2.85%) sectors experienced the largest declines [6] Fund Flow - On the fund flow front, the Hong Kong Technology sector saw a net inflow of 2.719 billion RMB, followed by Gold with 1.930 billion RMB and ChiNext with 1.492 billion RMB [7] - In the past week, Gold and Hong Kong Technology consistently attracted significant net inflows, indicating a prevailing risk-averse sentiment among investors [7][8] AI and Digital Infrastructure - Google launched the Gemini 3 Pro preview on November 19, enhancing its AI capabilities across its product suite, while Baidu reported over 50% year-on-year growth in its AI business revenue for Q3 2025 [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for building high-standard digital parks, aiming to establish around 200 parks by 2027, which will enhance AI and data service applications [10] Media Sector Insights - AI-generated content, such as AI manga, is becoming increasingly profitable, with net profits ranging from 200,000 to 300,000 RMB for paid versions, while free versions yield around 100,000 RMB [11] - Major tech companies are focusing on AI applications in advertising, which is expected to enhance return on investment (ROI) and increase advertising prices [11] Chemical Sector Developments - The surge in the energy storage market has led to a rapid increase in demand for lithium battery materials, with significant price hikes reported for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate [11] - Analysts predict a favorable profit outlook for lithium materials, with potential price increases expected across various battery types by the end of the year [11]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：钛资讯） 03 01 后市预测 国内硫酸市场价格 本周国内硫酸市场继续呈高位上行趋势，受原料硫磺、硫铁矿价格高位且上涨，酸企成本压力明显，部 分地区工厂多存检修或恢复计划，市场短期整体供应变化不大；下游磷肥市场因政策影响，开工率有所 提升，对硫酸高价有一定支撑；但化工行业需求仍低迷，市场后期开工率预计下降，企业接受能力预计 将逐步转弱；整体来看，硫酸市场在利多大于利空因素影响下，后期价格仍存上涨预期。 今日国内硫酸市场价格上涨80元/吨，截至目前，河北地区98%硫磺酸出厂价格在940-1070元/吨，98% 矿石酸出厂价格在900-980元/吨，河南地区98%冶炼酸出厂价格在700-760元/吨；受硫磺价格持续上 涨，硫酸市场延续上行走势，国内山东、河北、安徽等地区价格陆续上涨，国内酸价普遍上调，市场看 涨情绪浓；近期硫酸市场供不应求，下游行业开工分化，对硫酸维持刚需，市场成交依旧良好，推涨意 愿较强，硫酸市场继续维持上行趋势。 | 制酸种类 | 市场 | 制酸种类 | 11月17日 | 11月18日 | 张肤幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

从盘面来看，科创板592只个股涨少跌多，高价股多数上涨，低价股则多数下跌。细分领域来看，半导 体股、软件服务股表现强势，电气设备股、化工原料股跌幅靠前；专用机械股表现分化。 恒坤新材11月18日在上交所科创板上市，公司证券代码为688727，发行价格14.99元／股，发行市盈率 为71.42倍。公司的主营业务是光刻材料和前驱体材料的研发、生产和销售。公司主要产品有光刻材 料、SOC（碳膜涂层）、BARC（底部抗反射涂层）、光刻胶、其他光刻材料、前驱体材料等。截至收 盘时，恒坤新材较发行价涨74.41%，成交额约11.1亿元，换手率达73.25%。 经新华财经统计，11月18日，剔除上市首日的恒坤新材，科创板其余592只个股平均跌幅0.58%，平均 换手率2.62%，合计成交额约1846.08亿元，平均振幅为3.97%。 新华财经北京11月18日电（胡晨曦）科创50指数11月18日早间低开，随后震荡上行翻红，早盘一度涨超 1.4%；午后指数涨幅有所回落，最终小幅收涨。至收盘时，科创50指数报1357.93点，涨幅0.29%，指数 振幅为1.92%，总成交额约612.2亿元。 个股表现方面，不考虑上市首日的恒坤新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hengguang Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.02% decline in stock price, closing at 26.32 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 124 million CNY and a turnover rate of 4.40%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 2.9 billion CNY [1]. Company Overview - Hengguang Co., Ltd. is located in Huaihua City, Hunan Province, and was established on December 18, 2008. The company was listed on November 18, 2021. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of sulfur and chlorine chemical product chains [1]. - The revenue composition of Hengguang Co., Ltd. is as follows: 72.00% from chlorine chemical products, 27.77% from sulfur chemical products, and 0.23% from other supplementary sources [1]. Shareholder Information - According to data, a fund under Nuoan Fund ranks among the top ten circulating shareholders of Hengguang Co., Ltd. The Nuoan Multi-Strategy Mixed A Fund (320016) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 625,500 shares, which accounts for 0.6% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 869,400 CNY [2]. - The Nuoan Multi-Strategy Mixed A Fund (320016) was established on August 9, 2011, with a latest scale of 1.855 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 79.02%, ranking 162 out of 8140 in its category; the one-year return is 80.42%, ranking 147 out of 8057; and since inception, the return is 245.5% [2]. - The fund manager of Nuoan Multi-Strategy Mixed A Fund is Kong Xianzheng, who has a cumulative tenure of 4 years and 358 days. The total asset scale under his management is 5.608 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 93.84% and the worst being -16.74% [2].

Group 1: Industry Performance - The petrochemical index saw an overall increase, with six indices rising and only the chemical machinery index declining by 4.02% [1] - The chemical raw materials index rose by 3.44%, the pharmaceutical index increased by 3.09%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index went up by 3.18% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 1.84%, the oil extraction index rose by 1.42%, and the oil trading index surged by 7.39% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices experienced slight upward fluctuations, with WTI settling at $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% from November 7, and Brent at $64.39 per barrel, up 1.19% [1] - The top five petrochemical products with the highest price increases included DMC (up 18.18%), natural rubber (up 13.22%), D4 (up 13.04%), 107 glue (up 12.71%), and methyl acrylate (up 8.03%) [1] - The five petrochemical products with the largest price declines were isooctyl acrylate (down 7.69%), 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (down 4.29%), dichloromethane (down 3.64%), diethylene glycol (down 3.53%), and vitamin D3 (down 3.33%) [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five listed chemical companies with the highest stock price increases were Shida Shenghua (up 43.44%), Yongtai Technology (up 33.89%), Aoke Shares (up 23.36%), Taihe Technology (up 23.59%), and Kaisheng New Materials (up 23.03%) [2] - The five listed chemical companies with the largest stock price declines included Xiangyuan New Materials (down 15.42%), Xinhang New Materials (down 14.15%), Dongcai Technology (down 13.52%), Kaili New Materials (down 12.60%), and Asia-Pacific Industry (down 11.16%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic futures market on November 17, 2025, showed a mixed performance. Some commodities like lithium carbonate and shipping index (European line) rose, while others such as silver and gold futures declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and market factors affecting their price trends [6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices showed a weak - upward trend. Although copper mines were in short supply, the increase in scrap copper and partial resumption of smelters led to an upward trend in production. Demand was transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Overall, copper was expected to be in a strong - oscillatory state, and attention should be paid to US economic data and interest - rate cut probabilities [10][12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It had a strong performance, hitting the daily limit. Supply was increasing, and demand was strong due to the performance of energy - storage batteries. The market was in a tight - balance state, supporting the strong performance of the lithium carbonate futures [13]. - **Silver and Gold**: Silver futures dropped by over 4%, and gold futures fell by over 3% [8]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The supply - surplus situation was exacerbated by OPEC +'s production increase in the fourth quarter, and demand was weakening. Saudi Aramco lowered prices, and US production reached a record high. It was expected that crude oil prices would oscillate weakly [14][15]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased, and demand was weakening. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, asphalt prices were expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Chemicals - **PP**: Although downstream demand was in the peak season, the follow - up of orders was limited. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, PP prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate was stable, but downstream demand was weakening. With the supply - surplus situation of crude oil, plastic prices were expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **PVC**: Supply was still at a relatively high level, and demand was weak. With the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, PVC prices were expected to oscillate and face pressure [21]. Coal - **Coking Coal**: Prices showed an upward trend. Although there were short - term factors affecting supply, the overall supply was expected to be in a tight - balance state. Market sentiment was boosted by macro - policy expectations [22][23]. Others - **Urea**: Supply was relatively loose, but the release of export quotas supported the market. It was expected that the Indian tender situation would affect the domestic urea market sentiment [24].