2026 年 02 月 06 日 投资评级：看好（首次） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 恒生指数 本地生活服务Ⅱ 本地生活服务Ⅱ 相关研究报告 大厂抢滩构建 AI 生态，流量+技术+场景多维驱动便 利生活渗透，外卖&配送有望充分受益 ——港股行业点评报告 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 荀月（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | xunyue@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790525020004 | 证书编号：S0790524110001 | 阿里千问推出 30 亿春节活动，有望带动闪购单量增长 事件：阿里千问推出 30 亿春节活动，（1）20 亿免单卡，2 月 6 日-2 月 12 日阿 里千问联合淘宝闪购、飞猪、大麦、盒马、天猫超市、支付宝等阿里生态业务， 用户最多可领取 21 张无门槛 25 元免单卡，用于全国 30 多万家奶茶店、餐厅、 超市等 ...

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City (09699) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant profit growth for the fiscal year 2025, driven by the expansion of the instant retail market and operational efficiencies [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a profit attributable to shareholders of no less than 238 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 80% [1][5]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to be no less than 376 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 158% [1][5]. - Annual revenue is projected to be no less than 22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1][5]. Market Insights - The growth in performance is attributed to a surge in delivery demand due to the expansion of the instant retail market, healthy order growth driven by full-category and all-time service offerings, and enhanced operational efficiency through lean rider operations and digital technology [1][5]. - HSBC's report indicates that the adjusted net profit forecast exceeds their expectations, maintaining confidence in SF Express City's organic growth despite recent market scrutiny of instant retail platforms [1][5]. - The bank projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% for revenue from 2024 to 2027, compared to a CAGR of 24% from 2021 to 2024 [1][5].

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City (09699) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant profit growth for the fiscal year 2025, driven by the expansion of the instant retail market and operational efficiencies [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a profit attributable to shareholders of no less than 238 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of over 80% [1] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be no less than 376 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 158% [1] - Annual revenue is projected to be no less than 22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1] Market Insights - The growth in performance is attributed to the surge in delivery demand from the expanding instant retail market, healthy order growth driven by comprehensive service offerings, and enhanced operational efficiency through technology [1] - HSBC's report indicates that the adjusted net profit forecast exceeds their expectations, maintaining confidence in the company's organic growth despite market scrutiny of instant retail platforms [1] - The bank projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% for revenue from 2024 to 2027, compared to a CAGR of 24% from 2021 to 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City (09699) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant profit growth for the fiscal year 2025, driven by the expansion of the instant retail market and operational efficiencies [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a profit attributable to shareholders of no less than 238 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 80% [1] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be no less than 376 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 158% [1] - Annual revenue is projected to be no less than 22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the surge in delivery demand due to the expansion of the instant retail market [1] - The company has seen healthy order growth driven by full-category, all-time service offerings [1] - Operational improvements through lean rider management and digital technology enhancements have contributed to increased scale effects [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - HSBC's report indicates that the adjusted net profit forecast of 376 million yuan exceeds their expectations [1] - Despite recent market scrutiny of instant retail platforms, HSBC maintains confidence in SF Express City's organic growth [1] - The bank projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% for revenue from 2024 to 2027, compared to a CAGR of 24% from 2021 to 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - SF Express's subsidiary, SF Tongcheng, is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with net profit projected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an increase of at least 80% compared to 2024 [1]. Group 1: Financial Projections - For 2025, SF Tongcheng's adjusted net profit is anticipated to be no less than RMB 376 million, reflecting a growth of at least 158% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue for 2025 is expected to reach no less than RMB 22 billion, indicating a growth of at least 40% compared to 2024 [1]. - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are revised to RMB 238 million, RMB 452 million, and RMB 755 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 80.03%, 89.46%, and 67.04% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for instant retail is rapidly increasing, and SF Tongcheng is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, especially with the diversification of traffic on food delivery platforms [1]. - The strategic shift of Alibaba Group towards dominating the instant retail market through Taobao Flash Purchase is expected to enhance competition in the sector [1]. - Regulatory scrutiny on the food delivery platform market is anticipated to lead to more compliant competition, potentially expanding logistics opportunities beyond traditional categories [1]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - SF Tongcheng's independent third-party platform serves as a key differentiator, breaking down traffic barriers and meeting the multi-channel operational needs of merchants [2]. - High-quality service capabilities have strengthened partnerships with major clients such as McDonald's, KFC, and major supermarket brands, supporting steady customer growth [2]. - The company's logistics infrastructure is crucial in connecting merchants, platforms, and consumers, enhancing its market position [2]. Group 4: Profitability Outlook - Short-term profitability may be impacted by stock compensation and the hiring of new riders to handle increased order volumes, which could affect gross margins [3]. - Long-term prospects remain positive as scale effects are expected to gradually enhance net profit margins [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 48x, 25x, and 15x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers like Meituan and DoorDash [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment and expansion of occupational injury protection for new employment forms in China, highlighting the need for a comprehensive legal framework and sustainable funding mechanisms to support the 84 million workers in gig economy roles [1][2][4]. Group 1: Current Status and Expansion - As of July 2022, China initiated a pilot program for occupational injury protection, which has expanded from 7 provinces and 4 industries to 17 provinces by July 2025, covering major platforms like Didi and SF Express [1]. - By the end of 2025, the cumulative number of insured individuals under the pilot program is expected to reach 25.1 million [1]. Group 2: Legislative and Institutional Development - The National People's Congress is reviewing a report aimed at improving the legal framework for the rights of flexible and new employment form workers, emphasizing the need for legislative action to establish a robust protection system [1][2]. - There is a consensus among representatives from various provinces to transition from pilot programs to legally mandated protections for new employment forms [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - Current challenges include the limited coverage of the occupational injury protection program, primarily benefiting large platform companies while excluding many small and flexible employment platforms [2]. - A multi-tiered funding mechanism is recommended, involving platform contributions, government subsidies, and voluntary participation from individuals to ensure sustainability [3]. - The need for product and service innovation is highlighted, encouraging the insurance industry to develop tailored products for gig workers and enhance digital service processes [3]. Group 4: Social Implications - The occupational injury protection system is framed as a matter of social equity, requiring collaboration among government, platform companies, insurance institutions, and society to provide comprehensive protection for gig workers [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its instant delivery segment, driven by increasing demand and strategic positioning within the market [3][4] - The company has reported a strong performance forecast for 2025, with net profit expected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an 80% increase from 2024 [3][4] - The report highlights the company's independent third-party platform as a key differentiator, enabling it to capture market opportunities and enhance customer relationships with major brands [3][4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 12.4 billion - 2024: RMB 15.746 billion - 2025E: RMB 22.051 billion - 2026E: RMB 30.202 billion - 2027E: RMB 39.568 billion - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are projected at: - 2023: 20.80% - 2024: 26.98% - 2025E: 40.04% - 2026E: 36.96% - 2027E: 31.01% [3][7] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: RMB 51 million - 2024: RMB 132 million - 2025E: RMB 238 million - 2026E: RMB 452 million - 2027E: RMB 755 million - Year-on-year net profit growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -117.63% - 2024: 161.81% - 2025E: 80.03% - 2026E: 89.46% - 2027E: 67.04% [3][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB 0.06 in 2023 to RMB 0.82 in 2027 [3][7] - The report notes a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 48x in 2025E to 15x in 2027E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City (顺丰同城) has announced a positive earnings forecast, indicating significant growth in profit and revenue for the upcoming fiscal year [1] Financial Performance - The expected profit attributable to the company's owners for the year ending December 31, 2025, is projected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an increase of at least 80% compared to the fiscal year 2024 [1] - The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be no less than RMB 376 million, reflecting a growth of at least 158% from 2024 [1] - Revenue is expected to reach no less than RMB 22 billion, which is an increase of at least 40% compared to 2024 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on the opportunities in the instant retail market, with a rapid increase in demand for instant delivery services [1] - All business segments are experiencing balanced and high-quality development, leading to healthy growth in order volume and revenue, significantly enhancing scale [1] - The company has established a neutral and open third-party market positioning, providing high-quality services across all categories and timeframes, which has fostered long-term customer trust and steady business growth [1] Operational Efficiency - Lean operations of the rider base and innovations in digital technology have improved network quality and efficiency, further enhancing scale effects [1] - The continuous manifestation of operational leverage has improved the efficiency of resource input and output, contributing to profit release [1]

据悉，在今年的春风行动期间，姑苏区还将依托"江苏工匠课堂"线上平台和苏州大学、苏州市电子 信息技师学院等线下机构，推出38门技能培训课程，从苏式糕点制作到人工智能应用、电商直播，各种 实用技能随心学，帮助就业者提升职业竞争力。此外，姑苏区还将不断优化公共招聘服务，计划举办大 型招聘会、"小而美"专场、直播带岗等线上线下招聘活动超40场，提供岗位超1万个，同步集中做好困 难群体关心关爱和就业兜底帮扶，实现"节前稳岗稳产、节后复工复产"无缝衔接，促成用工企业和求职 者"双向奔赴"。 "我在苏州工作三年了，今年准备回陕西老家过年，没想到，出发前姑苏区还给我们准备了礼包和 福字，很实用也很喜庆，感觉心里暖洋洋的。"昨天（2月2日）是春运第一天，姑苏区在苏州火车站北 广场面向返乡劳动者开展"春暖人心"送服务活动，让即将踏上返乡之路的刘先生收到了一份特别的新春 祝福。现场，苏州市救助管理站和姑苏区人社局、区司法局、区总工会、区妇联等部门联合提供政策咨 询、维权支持等一站式服务，并邀请书法家手写赠送春联福字。200份"苏式"伴手礼，为往来旅客营造 出暖心"年味"。 记者了解到，"春暖人心"送服务是姑苏区启动2026年春风行 ...

Core Viewpoint - SF Express (09699) anticipates a significant increase in profits and revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, driven by the growth in the instant retail market and improvements in operational efficiency [2] Financial Projections - The company's profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an increase of at least 80% compared to 2024 [2] - The adjusted net profit for the year is projected to be no less than RMB 376 million, reflecting a growth of at least 158% from 2024 [2] - Group revenue is forecasted to be no less than RMB 22 billion, indicating a growth of at least 40% compared to 2024 [2] Growth Drivers - The positive performance is primarily attributed to the rapid increase in demand for instant delivery services in the instant retail market [2] - The balanced and high-quality development across various business segments has led to healthy growth in order volume and revenue, significantly enhancing scale [2] - The company's neutral and open positioning in the third-party market, along with high-quality services across all time periods and product categories, has fostered long-term customer trust, driving steady business growth [2] - Lean operations of the rider base and innovations in digital technology have improved network quality and efficiency, further enhancing scale effects and demonstrating ongoing operational leverage, which boosts resource input-output efficiency and profit release [2]