Group 1 - The overall performance of the service industry in Tai'an is stable, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 7.0% in Q1 2025, reaching 8.99 billion yuan [1] - Among the ten major industry categories, six sectors experienced double-digit growth, particularly the leasing and business services, and information transmission, software, and information technology services, which together accounted for 55.6% of total revenue [1] - The profitable service sector achieved a revenue of 5.82 billion yuan, representing 64.7% of the total service industry revenue, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 14.9% [1] Group 2 - The private economy in the service sector demonstrated strong vitality, with 514 private service enterprises generating 6.01 billion yuan, which is 66.8% of the total service industry revenue, and a year-on-year growth of 15.0% [2] - The robust start in Q1 reflects the resilience of Tai'an's service industry amid complex conditions, showcasing structural optimization and positive momentum in transformation [2] - Continued policy effectiveness is expected to lead to further breakthroughs in the high-quality development trajectory of the service industry [2]

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Liaoning's GDP reached 760.69 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and rising from 18th to 16th in national rankings [1][3] - The province's economic growth is driven by industrial and consumer sectors, with the secondary industry increasing by 5.4% and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.9% [2][3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Liaoning grew by 7.8%, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7%, and exports rose by 10.5%, all surpassing national averages [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 13.2%, accounting for 26.7% of total investment, with significant growth in aerospace and electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - Consumer spending was boosted by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, with notable increases in retail sales of new energy vehicles (22.5%) and smart wearable devices (13.1%) [4] Trade Performance - Liaoning's exports reached a record 95.11 billion yuan in Q1, growing by 10.5%, supported by a strong performance from private enterprises [5][6] - The province's trade with Belt and Road countries amounted to 102.65 billion yuan, marking a 5.9% increase, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Saudi Arabia [7] City Contributions - Shenyang and Dalian are key economic drivers, with Dalian's GDP at 228.03 billion yuan (6.2% growth) and Shenyang's at 212.18 billion yuan (4.6% growth) [8][11] - Dalian's industrial output increased by 10.9%, with strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [9] - Shenyang's growth was bolstered by a significant increase in the cultural and tourism sectors, with revenues from cultural and entertainment industries rising by 19% [12][13]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, Zhuhai's GDP reached 112.09 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a stable economic start [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.64 billion, growing by 4.0%, while the secondary industry decreased by 0.6% to 44.94 billion, and the tertiary industry increased by 7.1% to 65.51 billion, becoming the main driver of economic growth [1] Tertiary Industry Performance - The tertiary industry's growth of 7.1% was primarily driven by significant increases in information transmission, software, and IT services (21.6%), cultural, sports, and entertainment (8.3%), and leasing and business services (7.9%) [1] - From January to February, the revenue of large-scale service industries reached 27.07 billion, up by 10.4%, with internet and related services, software and IT services, cultural, sports, and entertainment, and leasing and business services showing revenue growth of 114.5%, 32.2%, 12.3%, and 9.5% respectively [1] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Zhuhai for the first quarter reached 23.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [2] - Retail sales of household appliances surged by 84.7%, while automotive consumption showed weakness, with retail sales of automotive goods declining by 3.5% to 2.694 billion, accounting for 22.9% of total retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's foreign trade performance was notable, with total import and export reaching 81.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, driven by a 26.5% increase in imports and an 11.2% increase in exports [2] - The number of foreign trade enterprises exceeded 3,000, marking an 8.8% increase, with significant growth in trade with the EU (21.8%), ASEAN (6.1%), and the Middle East (39.4%) [2] - Exports of electromechanical products reached 37.48 billion, growing by 13.1%, accounting for 68.6% of total exports, with notable increases in home appliances (6.4%), electronic components (18.1%), computers and parts (70.1%), and lithium batteries (122.3%) [2] Primary Industry Insights - The primary industry added value grew by 4.0%, reflecting accelerated agricultural modernization and significant achievements in marine ranching [3] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 5.1%, with fishery output accounting for nearly 80% [3] Secondary Industry Analysis - The secondary industry saw a 0.6% decline in added value, although high-tech sectors experienced growth, with industrial added value increasing by 4.8% [3] - Key sectors showed varied performance: precision machinery manufacturing increased by 41.7%, electronic information by 10.1%, and petrochemical by 9.2%, while biomedicine and home appliance sectors faced declines of 11.4% and 2.3% respectively [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 40.5%, although the decline narrowed by 5.9 percentage points compared to January-February, with industrial technological transformation investment achieving a positive growth of 5.6% supported by equipment renewal policies [3]

昨日，广州公布一季度经济数据： 地区生产总值7532.51亿元，同比增长3.0%。 一组"稳进"数据，体现四大积极信号，一系列政策加力显效。在全球经济暗流涌动、新旧动能加速转 换、关税战贸易战阴云密布等多重压力之下，广州一季度GDP增速比去年全年加快0.9个百分点，经济 大盘"稳"的态势不断巩固，这份开局"成绩单"的含金量仍在不断上升——汽车制造业在深度调整期交 出"产销双升、动能焕新"的答卷；服务业以超七成GDP占比筑牢经济"压舱石"；"芯"品产值飙升、低空 经济蓄势"高飞"；外贸进出口总值连续三个季度正增长，人流如织的广交会将一批又一批"中国智造"从 珠江之畔推向世界各地…… 虽"浪高千尺"，广州正以"稳进"之态，扎扎实实办好自己的事，以高质量发展为全国经济增长注入更 多"确定性"。 稳汽车产业正逐步走出深度调整期 调整、阵痛、蓄力……过去一两年，这些词汇经常用于描述广州汽车产业。不过，从广州经济"一季 报"看，"稳"的新信号正在广州汽车产业中显现。 一季度，广州汽车产销两端同步改善，新能源车产量实现自去年5月以来累计产量增速首次转正，同比 增长0.7%；汽车制造业加速新旧动能转换，增加值比上年全年降幅收 ...

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...

■闫立良 今年一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%（按不变价格计算）的成绩来之不易。从各部门公布的一季度数据和地方政府部门 加快相关政策措施落地的情况看，"投资于人"已经立竿见影。那么，"投资于人"在一季度经济运行中发挥了哪些作用呢？ 第一，"投资于人"的资金支持、政策措施力度加大。今年以来，为满足民生需求，各类政府投资工具顺次启动，财政与金 融的配合力度明显加大。财政部4月18日发布的一季度一般公共预算支出情况显示，社会保障和就业支出13570亿元，同比增长 7.9%，增速在各主要支出科目中居首位；教育支出11249亿元，同比增长7.8%，增速第二；卫生健康支出5848亿元，同比增长 2.2%。 第三，"投资于人"的新赛道亟须开拓。"投资于人"需要大量资金支持，除了财政金融外，引导更多民间资本参与社会民生 等领域建设具有多方面的积极效应，在盘活民间资本的同时，亦可为它们打开产业新赛道的创新空间。国家统计局公布的一季 度数据显示，民间投资增长0.4%，扣除房地产开发投资，民间投资增长6.0%。民间投资在提高社会领域投资效率上具有显著优 势，在教育、养老、文化、休闲、体育、城市更新等方面具有广阔拓展空间，是经济新 ...

3 月制造业 PMI 在临界值以上进一步回升 0.3 个点至 50.5，春旺效应仍在，力度却略低于预期。分项指标显示产需进 一步修复仍是主要支撑，新订单指数及生产指数分别在临界值以上回升 0.7、0.1 个点，其中新出口订单回升 0.4 个 点；此外供货商配送时间下降 0.7 个点也对总指数构成反向支撑，原材料库存小幅上升 0.2 个点，其它分项指标均有 不同程度回落。 若考虑春节假期位置，则今年 3 月的经济表现实际并未弱于季节性。需求边际恢复强于供给，新动能强于旧动能。倘 若简单从环比角度来看，3 月 PMI 读数较 2 月仅提升 0.3 个点，明显弱于往年同期平均回升约 0.6 个点的幅度。但如 果参考春节假期位置与今年相仿的 2017 年(大年初一为 1 月 28 日)，彼时 3 月 PMI 读数环比回升幅度为 0.2 个点，那 么对比来看，今年 3 月的 PMI 环比表现并不算弱，只是春旺前置，春季的高斜率复苏前移到了 2 月。结构上呈现新动 能强于旧动能的特征，一方面，本月计算机通信电子设备等行业产需指数均位于 55.0 以上较高景气区间，而高耗能 行业 PMI 在临界值以下继续下降；另一方面，本 ...