光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三尿素期货价格偏强震荡，主力05合约收盘价1797元/吨，涨幅0.34%。现货市场维持稳 | | | | 定，昨日山东、河南市场价格均维持在1800元/吨，现货市场基本处于 停 状态，市场有 | | | | 价无市。基本面来看，尿素供应水平高位运行，昨日行业日产量21.39万吨，日环比持平。 | | | | 需求力 继续回落，昨日主流地区产销率回落至5% 40%。节前厂家订单基本收完，物流 | | | 尿素 | 运力及下游逐渐放假，市场活跃度继续下降。好的方面在于本周尿素企业库存加 下降， | 窄幅 震荡 | | | 去库幅 高 9.12%，且节后市场将逐步 来需求 季，价格表现仍较 坚挺。整体来看， | | | | 春节前尿素市场逐步趋稳，期货价格震荡运行。假期期间国际市场印标等 动因素较多， | | | | 注意控制仓位，建议轻仓或空仓 节。 | | | | 周三纯碱期货价格窄幅波动，主力05合约收盘价1178元/吨，日环比持平。现货价格维持稳 定，贸 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，主力05合约收盘价1785元/吨，跌幅0.61%。现货市场继续走 | 宽幅 震荡 | | | 高，昨日山东、河南市场价格上涨至1800元/吨，日环比上调10元/吨。现货价格表现坚挺 | | | | 但后续随着物流运力及市场成交氛围逐渐下降，市场将进入有价无市状态。基本面来看， | | | | 尿素供应水平高位运行，昨日行业日产量21.56万吨，日环比持平。需求表现趋于清淡，主 | | | | 流地区产销率回落至16% 40%区间，个别地区成交依旧较好。假期订单较足的企业报价坚 | | | | 挺，订单欠缺的企业仍有降价收单可能，春节前后尿素企业 进入累库通道。整体来看， | | | | 尿素基本面春节前变化不大，现货购销活动逐步 弱，国际市场价格上涨及新一轮印标 | | | | 逐步消退，期货盘面新增驱动不足，上有政策顶、下有需求底状态继续存在。预计短期 | | | | 尿素期货价格延续区间宽幅震荡趋势，关注现货成交情况、企业库存变化、国际市场及印 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Ningdong Energy and Chemical Base is transforming its traditional coal chemical industry into a modern, high-value-added sector while addressing global energy transitions and structural challenges in resource-based regions, aiming for a total industrial output value exceeding 200 billion yuan by 2024 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industrial Development and Achievements - Ningdong Base aims to solidify its position as a national leader in modern coal chemical industries, with a coal-to-oil project operating at 4 million tons per year, accounting for half of the national capacity [4]. - The base has achieved significant milestones, including being recognized as a national-level advanced manufacturing cluster and winning the National Science and Technology Progress Award for its coal-to-oil technology [1][4]. - By 2024, the industrial output value is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan, making it the first chemical park in central and western China to reach this milestone [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - The base is focusing on high-quality development by transitioning from primary product processing to high-end manufacturing, emphasizing smart, green, and integrated industrial growth [3][5]. - It is actively developing downstream high-value products, such as high-density polyethylene and EVA, to enhance product competitiveness and risk resilience [5][6]. - The introduction of major projects has led to the establishment of new industrial clusters, including the "spandex valley" and "aromatic valley," positioning Ningdong as a key player in high-performance fiber production [6]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and R&D - Ningdong Base has increased its R&D investment intensity to 2.85%, significantly above the regional average, and has established multiple high-level innovation platforms [8][11]. - The base has completed 40 pilot projects and attracted over 30 top universities and research institutions to participate in its innovation ecosystem [9][12]. - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the number of innovation platforms is expected to reach 80, covering all key industrial sectors [11]. Group 4: Environmental Sustainability and Green Transition - The base is committed to a green transition, with a focus on energy structure optimization and the construction of a green electricity park with a total renewable energy capacity of 6.12 million kilowatts [19][20]. - It has implemented over 150 energy-saving and carbon-reduction projects, achieving a 17.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP from 2021 to 2024 [22]. - The establishment of a carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project is a significant step towards deep decarbonization in the coal chemical industry [22]. Group 5: Safety and Risk Management - Safety production is prioritized, with a comprehensive safety management system and initiatives to enhance safety awareness among employees [13][14]. - The base has implemented a risk management platform that utilizes big data for dynamic assessment and early warning of major hazards [15][17]. - A series of safety drills and emergency response plans have been established to ensure preparedness for potential incidents [18]. Group 6: Economic and Social Development - Ningdong Base is enhancing its business environment through reforms that streamline administrative processes, achieving an 81% reduction in processing times for enterprise-related matters [29][32]. - The base has invested in public services, including housing and education, to improve living conditions for workers and their families [34][35]. - It aims to create a harmonious social environment by ensuring comprehensive social security coverage and promoting employment opportunities [36]. Group 7: Future Outlook and Strategic Goals - The base is set to continue its focus on high-quality development, aiming for an industrial output value of over 300 billion yuan by 2030, doubling its economic output from 2022 [38][39]. - Strategic initiatives will include enhancing coal supply resilience, developing modern coal chemical industries, and fostering innovation in new energy and materials [39][40].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1788元/吨，涨幅0.68%。现货市场多数上扬 | 宽幅 震荡 | | | ，昨日山东、河南市场价格均为1790元/吨，日环比分别上涨10元/吨、30元/吨。基本面来 | | | | 看，尿素供应水平仍在持续恢复，昨日行业日产量21.56万吨，日环比增0.16万吨。需求表现 | | | | 继续分化，部分假期订单较足的企业报价坚挺，订单 缺的企业仍有降价收单可能。短期 | | | | 市场成交也仍有 量支撑，但随着物流运力及市场成交氛围逐渐下降，企业库存也将累积 | | | | 。节前尿素基本面变化不大，现货市场逐步趋稳。期货盘面情绪受到周末印度招标、国际 | | | | 市场价格上涨等因素提振，表现偏强。我国出口政策暂时未有放松迹象，国内外价差利润 | | | | 及印度招标暂时与我国货源无关。 外，保供稳价政策导向在 季效应更加明显，尿素期 | | | | 货价格难有趋势性上涨行 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Urea: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (predicted trend of upward movement) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand patterns of various chemical products are affected by factors such as approaching the Spring Festival, production capacity changes, and downstream demand. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, and the market trends vary, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term pressure or improvement expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of acrylonitrile futures declined during the day. Although there is an expected increase in supply, the pre - holiday supply shortage is difficult to reverse. Demand is mainly rational buying. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures also declined, and as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand support for the market weakens [2] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices fluctuated during the day. PX is recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year, but currently, the demand is declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. PTA load increased slightly, and the processing margin declined. Ethylene glycol inventory increased, but the rate of accumulation slowed down. In the second quarter, there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand. Short fiber has a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip processing margin has recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene continued to decline, and the spot market trading slowed down. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is expected to improve around the Spring Festival. The main contract of styrene futures declined, and the supply - demand structure will weaken until the Spring Festival, with seasonal inventory accumulation after the festival [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operation rate declined. Coastal demand is weak, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the short term. Domestic production increased, and the main production areas have smooth inventory clearance. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market may slowly reduce inventory. Urea daily production is high, and the market is supported by agricultural and reserve demand. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated slightly. The industry will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthening, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. Caustic soda is running strongly, but the profit is compressed, and there may be supply reduction due to potential maintenance. It is expected to run around the cost [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is running weakly, with increasing inventory and high supply. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Glass futures prices fluctuated upward, with inventory increasing and production capacity compressing. It is recommended to look for low - value buying opportunities [8]

煤炭或生物质气化生成的合成气经铁基费托合成可获得一系列不同碳数的α-烯烃。这些α-烯烃进一 步与合成气经氢甲酰化反应可得长链脂肪醛，成为制备香料、药物、表面活性剂等产品的重要原料。这 被视为推动煤化工向精细化、高值化转型的新方向。 这项研究不仅为设计高效、稳定的钴基氢甲酰化多相催化剂提供了新思路，也为煤炭资源的高附加 值转化提供了可行的技术路线，有望推动相关精细化学品产业绿色升级。 （原载于《科技日报》 2026-02-09 08版） 然而，在氢甲酰化反应中，目前工业上广泛使用的铑、钴基均相催化剂，都面临反应条件严苛、反 应后底物与催化剂难分离等问题。相比之下，价格更低的钴基催化剂应用潜力更大。但与铑基催化剂相 比，负载型钴基催化剂的活性通常较低，且在反应中容易因一氧化碳等分子的强配位作用而流失，稳定 性欠佳。 针对上述难题，研究团队提出构筑"钴—碳化钼界面"的新思路，通过控制碳化钼的形貌和厚度来优 化界面结构。研究团队成功打造出两种高效界面位点：一种是部分氧化的碳化钼纳米颗粒与钴颗粒形成 的Co-MoOx位点，能显著降低反应的"能量门槛"，让氢甲酰化反应速率大幅提升。在1-己烯氢甲酰化测 试中，其催化活性是 ...

记者2月5日从中国科学院山西煤炭化学研究所获悉，该所研究员张斌团队在α-烯烃氢甲酰化中取得新进 展，为煤炭变身高端化学品开辟了新路径。相关成果日前发表于国际期刊《ACS催化》。 煤炭或生物质气化生成的合成气经铁基费托合成可获得一系列不同碳数的α-烯烃。这些α-烯烃进一步与 合成气经氢甲酰化反应可得长链脂肪醛，成为制备香料、药物、表面活性剂等产品的重要原料。这被视 为推动煤化工向精细化、高值化转型的新方向。 然而，在氢甲酰化反应中，目前工业上广泛使用的铑、钴基均相催化剂，都面临反应条件严苛、反应后 底物与催化剂难分离等问题。相比之下，价格更低的钴基催化剂应用潜力更大。但与铑基催化剂相比， 负载型钴基催化剂的活性通常较低，且在反应中容易因一氧化碳等分子的强配位作用而流失，稳定性欠 佳。 这项研究不仅为设计高效、稳定的钴基氢甲酰化多相催化剂提供了新思路，也为煤炭资源的高附加值转 化提供了可行的技术路线，有望推动相关精细化学品产业绿色升级。 针对上述难题，研究团队提出构筑"钴—碳化钼界面"的新思路，通过控制碳化钼的形貌和厚度来优化界 面结构。研究团队成功打造出两种高效界面位点：一种是部分氧化的碳化钼纳米颗粒与钴颗粒形 ...

2月6日至7日，省委书记赵一德到榆林市高新区、吴堡县、清涧县调研稳增长、乡村振兴、文化等 工作。他强调，要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记历次来陕考察、来榆林考察重要讲话重要指示精神，认真 落实省委经济工作会议和省两会部署，坚定不移走好能源革命转型升级之路，在全省高质量发展大局中 勇担重任、多作贡献。 中煤榆林煤炭深加工基地项目是国家煤化工行业碳排放评价试点示范项目。赵一德来到项目指挥 部，察看工地数字化管理平台，听取项目规划、建设进度等情况介绍，询问投用计划和预估产值，强调 要加强施工过程管理、质量管理、安全管理，确保项目早建成早见效。他指出，以煤为基的能源化工是 榆林发展的优势和潜力所在，要坚持"双碳"引领，强化创新驱动，聚焦高端化、多元化、低碳化发展方 向促进煤化工产业延链补链强链，推动能源革命创新示范区建设不断取得新突破。 在吴堡县张家山镇辛庄村，赵一德听取美丽乡村建设、产业发展、村集体经济收入等情况汇报，实 地察看村庄环境和窑洞民宿。他说，榆林推进乡村全面振兴必须综合考虑生态容量，要因地制宜推 行"林上山、粮下川"，探索农村一二三产融合发展路径，完善联农带农机制，加快补齐现代生活条件短 板，切实让农业强起来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The urgency for strategic security investments and new infrastructure in the US reflects a growing competition, balancing short-term shareholder interests with long-term strategic value [2] - China's capital market has already completed the pricing adjustment from virtual to real, currently undergoing a verification and pricing process for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - A potential "favorable timing and conditions" for a new upward cycle in the A-share market is anticipated in the coming months, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] - Historical data shows that February, especially around the Spring Festival, is a period of strong market activity, with small-cap stocks likely to outperform [3] - The recent market pullback is seen as an opportunity to regain confidence and prepare for the upcoming upward cycle, especially around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The global market is quickly pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while the Chinese government is shifting its focus towards domestic demand, which is expected to boost economic prospects [5] - The recent emphasis from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on stabilizing the capital market is expected to support a gradual recovery in the A-share market [5] - Recommendations include focusing on emerging technologies and sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and traditional manufacturing [5] Group 4 - The recent global asset adjustment is more about digesting emotions rather than fundamental changes, with a favorable environment for market recovery expected post-Spring Festival [6] - Key sectors to focus on include technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, with a particular emphasis on AI hardware and high-end manufacturing [6] - The upcoming period is expected to see increased industry catalysts and a rise in risk appetite, creating opportunities for thematic investments [6] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is seen as having value for investment, with expectations of a rebound once the liquidity shock subsides [7] - The market is expected to experience a stronger performance post-Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] - The rotation of investment focus is anticipated to accelerate in February, particularly towards sectors like oil, food and beverage, and construction materials [7] Group 6 - The global risk-off mode has led to a reevaluation of assets, with a focus on physical assets and a recovery in manufacturing trends [8] - Recommendations include investing in commodities like oil, copper, and lithium, as well as sectors with confirmed bottoming out in the Chinese manufacturing industry [8] - The return of capital and easing of pressure from quantitative tightening are expected to support a recovery in consumer sectors [8] Group 7 - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily driven by internal factors, with external shocks having limited impact on the fundamental industry landscape [9][10] - The market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and a continuation of the spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival [10] - Key sectors to watch include AI computing, chemical industries, and power equipment, with potential catalysts from local policy signals [10] Group 8 - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a shift towards value and consumer sectors as high-valuation tech stocks face selling pressure [12] - Defensive sectors like banking and food and beverage are likely to attract investment, while growth sectors may regain focus post-Spring Festival [12] - The upcoming policy window and recovery in risk appetite are expected to shift market attention back to growth sectors with clear performance catalysts [12]

化工板块周五（2月6日）逆市猛攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低开后迅速拉 升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.45%，而后持续高位震荡，尾盘略有回落，最终逆市收涨2.37%。 成份股方面，锂电、磷化工、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，恩捷股份涨停，宏达股份、浙 江龙盛、天赐材料等大涨超6%，恒逸石化、荣盛石化、华峰化学等亦涨幅居前。 | | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 图8 | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九特 画球 工具 @ (2) > | | 44. TETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DOG | | | | 516020Hz工ETF] 15:00 � 0.949 通款 0.022(2.37%) 均价 0.947 服交量 0.10PV 0.9491 | | | | | 2026/02/06 | 0 946 | | +0.022 +2.379 | | | | | | ...