Group 1 - The report highlights that the market may be overly optimistic about the quick resolution of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, indicating a significant expectation gap regarding the duration of the conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impacts oil prices and subsequently affects global asset prices [1][10]. - The current phase of the US-Israel-Iran conflict has transitioned from pure battlefield engagement to a "fighting while negotiating" scenario, creating a precarious political balance that complicates investment decisions [1][12]. Group 2 - The report introduces two volatility indicators, OVX and VIX, as essential tools for institutional investors to navigate the current geopolitical uncertainties. OVX measures the market's expectation of oil price volatility, while VIX gauges the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index, representing economic recession risks [2][14]. - A rapid increase in OVX coupled with a lagging VIX suggests that risks are still concentrated in the energy sector and have not yet fully transmitted to global macro credit risks or earnings expectations. A simultaneous upward movement in both indicators may signal a liquidity crisis or global economic recession triggered by geopolitical risks [2][14]. Group 3 - The investment strategy is categorized into four quadrants based on the relationship between OVX and VIX, providing tailored recommendations for different market conditions: 1. High OVX and fluctuating VIX suggest a local energy crisis, recommending an overweight in traditional energy and energy alternatives, particularly in sectors like power equipment and coal [3][26]. 2. High OVX and rapidly rising VIX indicate systemic recession or liquidity risks, prioritizing defensive strategies [3][26]. 3. A peak and decline in OVX with a downward-trending VIX suggest a transition to technology growth investments, recommending sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and AI-related themes [3][26]. 4. A declining OVX with an unusually high VIX indicates the end of geopolitical tensions, but the impact of high oil prices on the economy persists, suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and low-volatility investments [3][26].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 ( 于中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) (股份代號：01898) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而發表。 以下為中國中煤能源股份有限公司於上海證券交易所網站刊發之《中國中煤能源股 份有限公司 2025 年年度報告摘要和年報全文》。 承董事會命 中國中煤能源股份有限公司 董事長、執行董事 王樹東 中國 北京 2026 年 3 月 27 日 於本公告刊發日期，本公司的執行董事為王樹東、高士崗和廖華軍；非執行董事為徐倩； 獨立非執行董事為景奉儒、詹豔景和黃江天。 * 僅供識別 中国中煤能源股份有限公司 2025 年年度报告摘要 2025 年年度报告摘要 第一节 重要提示 1. 本年度报告摘要来自年度报告全文，为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规 划，投资者应当到 www.sse.com.cn 网站仔细阅读年度报告全文。 2. 本公司董事会及董事、 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 3 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格震荡偏强，主力05合约收盘价1875元/吨，涨幅1.41%。现货市场基本 80%，少部分地区维持100%及以上。近期随 农业需求下沉速度加 ， 端市场 口 | 高位 震荡 | | | 稳定，山东、河南地区市场价格分别维持在1890/吨、1860元/吨。尿素供应水平高位波 | | | | 动，行业日产量昨日恢复至21.73万吨，日环比增0.26万吨。 加淡 货源投放，尿素供 | | | | 应整体充裕。需求跟进情绪一 ，但区域间分化有所收 。昨日主流地区现货产销率40% | | | | 逐步收 ，贸易商跟进情绪也略有放缓。整体来 ，需求旺季依旧 尿素市场成交 来 | | | | 托底效应，但在保供稳价政策导向下尿素价格上方 间依旧 限。预计短期尿素期货价 | | | | 格延续高位震荡趋势，国际地缘政治及能源价格扰动依旧存在，市场波动相对较高。关 | | | | 注国内需求力度、保供稳价政策动态、国际局势及能源价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes multiple industries including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals. Geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the supply and price of various commodities. Market sentiment is complex and volatile, and different industries face different supply - demand situations and price trends. [3][4][6] Summary by Directory 01 Oil Products Crude Oil - **Logic**: Geopolitical news dominates market fluctuations, and Trump has postponed energy strikes. - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz is low, and the export of Russian oil is restricted, leading to a tightening of global crude oil supply. The recovery of shut - down production capacity is uncertain. - **Macro**: The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the macro - sentiment is weak. [3] Fuel Oil - **Logic**: Funds are flowing out, and the high - sulfur crack spread is falling. - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil has limited follow - up ability despite strong crude oil. The low - sulfur fuel oil is in a tight supply - demand situation, with supply being tight and demand shifting to Asia. It will continue to be strong but may experience a correction. [6][7] LPG - **Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is short - term support. - **Fundamentals**: The international oil price rebound drives the LPG price up. The supply gap in the Middle East cannot be quickly filled, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. [8] 02 Aromatics - Polyester PTA - **Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical progress, and the downstream load has slightly decreased. - **Fundamentals**: The TA2605 contract has risen, the spot basis has strengthened, the PTA load has increased, and the downstream polyester load has decreased. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts. [9][10] 03 Coal Chemical Urea - **Logic**: The sentiment is generally stable, with support, but beware of policy pressure. - **Fundamentals**: The positive overseas sentiment and domestic policy pressure offset each other. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to remain stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The international price is rising, but the domestic - international price transmission is limited. [11] Methanol - **Logic**: There is still geopolitical uncertainty, but short - term import shortages provide support, and it maintains high - level operation. - **Fundamentals**: The MA2605 contract has risen. The price in the port area has rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. The import in April is expected to be low, and the port inventory may further decrease. [12] 04 Salt Chemical Soda Ash - **Logic**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand pressure is high. - **Fundamentals**: The increase in coal prices supports the bottom price, but the supply - demand situation lacks effective support. The inventory is at a high level, and the rebound requires supply - side production cuts. [13] Glass - **Logic**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. - **Fundamentals**: The glass inventory continues to decline, but the market sentiment has cooled. The supply is at a low level, and the price has support at a low level. The improvement in the second - hand housing market may drive the demand for glass. [14][15] Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply - demand side has strong support, but the futures valuation is high. - **Fundamentals**: The manufacturer's inventory pressure is small, and the supply - demand support is strong. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the supply and demand of caustic soda needs to be continuously monitored. [16] 05 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Logic**: Shanghai copper has a slight increase. - **Fundamentals**: The situation in the Middle East is complex, and the market sentiment changes. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the cost of copper is supported. The long - term demand for copper in the new energy transformation is positive. [17] Gold - **Logic**: It fluctuates strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The uncertainty of monetary policy and the situation in the Middle East affect the US dollar index. If the US dollar index weakens, it may drive the gold price up. [18] Silver - **Logic**: It fluctuates strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations. The silver price has temporarily escaped the low point but still faces uncertainties. [19] Appendix: Daily Data Monitoring of Each Sector The appendix provides daily data monitoring of various commodities, including price changes, basis, spreads, and inventory data, which helps to understand the market trends of different commodities. [21][22][23]

Group 1 - Chemical giant has raised prices for the fifth time, with institutions believing that future demand growth in coal chemical industry will support a rebound in coal prices. The company's restructuring worth billions is expected to increase annual coal production by 56.57% [2] - Chinese manufacturers of optical cables are experiencing a surge in global orders, with institutions indicating that overseas expansion in fiber optic cables has become a significant growth point for fiber optic companies [2] - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has initiated the development of next-generation open-source chips and systems [2] Group 2 - A company has announced a substantial dividend, proposing a payout of 70 yuan for every 10 shares [2] - Institutional analysis suggests that in the absence of sufficient trading volume, the market may experience more of a rebound rather than a reversal, indicating that further upward movement will require more positive signals from overseas or domestic sources. Future market trends may return to focusing on performance metrics [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple industries including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals, and provides investment logic and fundamental analysis for each sub - sector [3][8][10]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of various commodities, and continuous attention should be paid to the development of the situation, especially the negotiation progress between the US and Iran and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Logic**: The differences in the five cease - fire conditions proposed by Iran have promoted the recovery of crude oil prices. The market is still tense, and the long - term supply pattern is affected by the oil flow in the Middle East [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still scarce, and the overall crude oil supply is tight [3]. - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75%. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the macro - sentiment is weak [3]. - **Geopolitics**: There are differences between the US and Iran in the negotiation. The deterioration of the geopolitical situation has promoted the rise of oil prices [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - **Logic**: COSCO Shipping resumes flights, and attention should be paid to the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz [5]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The geopolitical sensitivity is high. The price has dropped, but the downward space is limited due to the support of fundamentals. The demand in Asia has increased, and the supply in the Middle East has decreased, resulting in a tight balance sheet [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The sentiment has cooled, but it is still running at a high level. The supply increment is limited, and the demand in ports has been affected. It is expected to continue to be strong but may continue to correct [6]. 3.1.3 LPG - **Logic**: The geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the LPG price has fallen [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US intends to cease fire for one month, and the international oil price has fallen, driving the LPG price to correct. However, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the cost - driven factor, and attention should be paid to its progress [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The TA2605 contract has risen, and the open interest has increased. The spot market atmosphere is average, and the basis has strengthened. The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has also increased. The mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have begun to implement production cuts [8]. 3.3 Coal Chemical 3.3.1 Urea - **Logic**: Supported by sentiment and cost, be vigilant against policy pressure [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The market procurement atmosphere is average, and the new orders are weak. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The inventory has decreased. The international price has risen, but the domestic price is under policy pressure, and the price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - **Logic**: The geopolitical sentiment has eased, but the short - term import shortage provides support. Do not chase the high price [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The MA2605 contract has fallen, but the decline is limited. The port price has fallen, and the basis is still strong. The short - term import is expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to further decrease [11]. 3.4 Salt Chemical 3.4.1 Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supported by the cost increase expectation [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The coal price has risen, and the cost has increased. However, the supply and demand in the real - world are not effectively supported, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The rebound needs the cooperation of supply - side production cuts [12]. 3.4.2 Glass - **Logic**: Supported by the low - level supply [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has been continuously shrinking, and the daily melting volume is at a low level. The demand impact of the real estate sector has been narrowing, and the market is moving towards supply - demand balance. The price has support at a low level, and the demand for home - decoration orders may improve [13][14]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supported by the continuous reduction of production at home and abroad, the supply - demand side support is strong [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price is relatively strong, mainly supported by export demand. The supply of caustic soda in the ethylene - method PVC industry at home and abroad is affected by the Strait blockade. If the blockade lasts for a long time, the price may rise further [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly [16]. - **Fundamentals**: There are disturbances in upstream copper mines, and the processing fee is at a historical low, providing cost support. The long - term demand for copper in the new energy transformation is positive. If the Middle East oil price disturbance ends, the macro - pressure may weaken [16]. 3.5.2 Gold - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The prospect of monetary policy is uncertain, and the rise in energy costs has pushed up inflation. The short - term Middle East situation affects the US dollar index. If the US dollar index weakens, the gold price may rise [19]. 3.5.3 Silver - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The market focus is on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations. The silver price has temporarily got out of the low point, but the future is still uncertain [20].

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price shock will not lead China into a "stagflation" scenario; improved inflation expectations will help catalyze the upward cycle of inventory, and the global energy transition and production security will accelerate capital goods exports from China, presenting opportunities in manufacturing and cyclical industries [6] Group 1: Impact of High Oil Prices on the Industry Chain - High oil prices affect the economic inflation center and rhythm significantly, primarily through industrial production and consumer prices [8] - The cost impact of high oil prices is most pronounced in transportation, chemicals, electricity, and construction, with the ability to transmit costs ranked as upstream > downstream > midstream [10] - High oil prices promote manufacturing price increases and inventory replenishment, with the petrochemical chain being the most benefited [17][19] Group 2: Review of Oil Price Shock Impact on A-shares - The oil price shocks from 2010-2012 and 2021-2022 had diverse impacts on A-shares, with four main mechanisms identified: 1) Rising oil prices boost resource prices and inventory replenishment, benefiting the oil chain and its substitutes [24] 2) Sustained high oil prices increase costs for oil-dependent industries, eroding profits [24] 3) Rising oil prices suppress export demand due to increased global manufacturing costs [24] 4) High oil prices trigger monetary tightening, negatively impacting stock market risk appetite [24] Group 3: Review of the 2010-2012 Oil Price Shock - During the 2010-2012 oil shock, the profitability of cyclical industries was negatively impacted by rising costs, particularly during high oil price plateau periods [27] - The manufacturing sector's profitability was less affected, with stable net profit margins in the machinery and electrical equipment sectors [29] - The consumer and technology sectors were generally less impacted by oil price shocks, although some downstream sectors like agriculture and textiles experienced declines [32][44] Group 4: Review of the 2021-2022 Oil Price Shock - The oil price shock during the 2021-2022 period had limited impact on the supply side, with oil prices rising initially but then declining significantly [40] - The cyclical industries showed resilience, with net profit margins remaining stable despite initial pressures from rising costs [41] - The consumer and technology sectors maintained low sensitivity to oil prices, although some sectors like agriculture and textiles faced challenges [44][49] Group 5: Industry Recommendations - Industries recommended for investment include petrochemicals, coal, and agricultural chemicals, which benefit from price differentials due to rising oil prices [4] - Capital goods sectors such as power equipment, new energy vehicles, and engineering machinery are expected to benefit from global energy transition and production security demands [4] - Industries likely to see inventory replenishment driven by price expectations include construction materials, steel, and chemicals [4]

1. Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is significantly affected by the Middle East situation, especially the oil price fluctuations [2][3][4][5][6][7] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and the market sentiment is complex [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. International oil price decline dragged down market sentiment, and downstream观望 increased [2] - For polyethylene, domestic production reduction devices increased, but cost support weakened due to the easing of the Middle East situation [2] - For polypropylene, high - price transactions faced pressure, and downstream enterprises' profit was squeezed, with weak order - taking and low willingness to start work [2] 3.2 Polyester - Affected by the US - Iran situation, PX and PTA prices declined, and the industry's efficiency decreased. The load of both decreased, and the downstream consumption followed up slowly [3] - The load of ethylene glycol decreased, and the price and monthly spread declined due to the expected decline in oil prices [3] - The load of short - fiber decreased slightly, and the downstream weaving load increase slowed down, mainly digesting raw materials [3] - The efficiency of bottle chips improved, the weekly load increased significantly, but the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The Middle East situation cooled slightly, and the geopolitical risk premium was withdrawn. The domestic pure benzene start - up load decreased, and the inventory decreased [4] - The main contract of styrene futures closed down, but the overall situation was relatively strong and volatile [4] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market adjusted due to the expected geopolitical easing. The import volume decreased, and the inventory in the East China port continued to decline [5] - The spot price of Shandong urea was stable with a slight increase. The domestic device start - up decreased slightly, and the inventory of urea production enterprises continued to decline [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from high levels due to the expected easing of the geopolitical situation. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased significantly [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The inventory continued to decline, and the export inquiry was good [6] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated within the day. The industry inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. The supply continued to expand [7] - Glass fluctuated weakly within the day. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down. The inventory pressure of the middle and upper reaches was relatively large [7]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 3 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格震荡走弱，主力05合约收盘价1864元/吨，跌幅1.06%。现货市场多数 | 高位 震荡 | | | 稳定，个别地区价格继续小幅调涨。山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1880/吨、1860元/ | | | | 吨，日环比分别上调10元/吨、维持稳定。尿素供应水平依旧偏高，行业日产量昨日恢复 | | | | 至21.7万吨，日环比增0.25万吨。需求端跟进情绪放缓，主流地区现货产销率位于30%~90 | | | | %区间，仅个别地区突破100%以上，区域间分化也在加剧，侧面反应需求承接力度或有 | | | | 转弱。本周以来尿素基本面变化幅度相对有限，市场底部虽仍有需求旺季及全球政治局 | | | | 势、能源价格等因素托底，但市场同时面临国内保供稳价政策导向，价格上方压制明显 | | | | 。预计短期尿素期货盘面延续高位宽幅波动趋势，走势跟随国际局势及能源价格波动仍 | | | | 有反复，但不具备趋势性上涨动能 ...

Key Points - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to lead the chemical industry towards high-quality development through supply and demand side reforms, focusing on green development and technological self-reliance [5][6] - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience a recovery in prosperity, with supply growth expected to slow down and a replenishment cycle beginning, supported by national policy guidance [5][6] - Key sectors to watch include refrigerants, potash fertilizers, organic silicon, phosphorus chemicals, and coal chemicals, which are expected to benefit from the upward trend in market conditions [5][6] Section Summaries Industry Review: Recovery Expected - The chemical industry is currently at a low point but is expected to recover as supply-side pressures ease and demand improves [18][19] - The basic chemical index rose by 33.29% by the end of 2025, indicating a positive trend [21] Focus Sectors: Improving Supply and Demand - The supply of refrigerants is expected to contract due to regulatory measures, while demand from air conditioning and refrigeration markets is projected to grow, leading to a favorable market environment [52][45] - The potash fertilizer market is characterized by high concentration and oligopoly, with global demand expected to grow by 5.5% in 2024 [60][61] - The organic silicon industry is transitioning from an expansion phase to a balanced supply-demand situation, with profitability expected to recover as production capacity stabilizes [68][76] - Phosphorus chemicals are benefiting from high market prices and increasing demand from the energy storage sector, particularly for lithium iron phosphate [86][87] New Materials Opportunities - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with significant developments expected in the coming years, creating opportunities for related materials [95][96] - The photolithography market is expanding due to strong demand from the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies accelerating their production capabilities [97][100]