证券研究报告·公司点评报告·炼化及贸易 荣盛石化（002493） 石化化工行业稳增长方案推出，民营炼化龙 头有望受益 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 325,112 | 326,475 | 311,311 | 324,706 | 339,440 | | 同比（%） | 12.46 | 0.42 | (4.64) | 4.30 | 4.54 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,158.15 | 724.48 | 1,899.02 | 2,948.71 | 4,091.34 | | 同比（%） | (65.33) | (37.44) | 162.12 | 55.28 | 38.75 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.41 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 84.96 | 135.82 | 51.81 | 33.37 | 24.05 ...

专家分享：石化化工各行业稳增长工作方案解读 摘要 新方案强调石化行业年均工业增加值增长 5%以上，并关注科技创新、 精细化延伸、数字赋能、本质安全和减污降碳，旨在提升行业附加值和 竞争力。 政策严控新增炼油产能，合理规划对二甲苯产能，防范煤制甲醇过剩风 险，并严格执行炼油项目产能减量置换，推动老旧装置改造，以优化产 业结构。 石化化工行业数字化转型需制定实施指南，开展成熟度评估和技术改造， 推动人工智能与石化结合，加大节能减排改造力度，并建设数字化能碳 管理中心。 未来两年节能降碳重点包括老旧装置更新改造，加强绿电、绿氢与石油 及煤炭耦合相关标准预研，并推进重点产品碳足迹规则核算标准制定。 化工园区发展需进行竞争力评价和分级评价，加快对标改造，提升高质 量发展水平，提高行业集中度，并培育壮大先进制造集群和龙头企业。 金融监管部门通过完善产品预警机制和信贷政策，引导信贷资金支持产 业布局和产能调控，并鼓励转型金融支持传统产业绿色低碳转型。 政策对存量产能退出采取"改造为主，退出为辅"的策略，通过数字化、 绿色化改造提升效率和质量，并淘汰能耗、排放或安全不达标的企业。 Q&A 请介绍一下最新发布的石化化工行业稳增 ...

具体来看，比如高端聚烯烃、工程塑料、高性能纤维、功能性膜材料和电子化学品，自给率只有 65%-80%，依然得大量依赖进口。利润表现上也差距明显：通用塑料这几年才勉强盈亏平衡，通用工程 塑料利润还在下滑，而特种工程塑料却始终保持高利润，堪称"材料界的隐形冠军"。 （来源：WELINK化工） 谁说塑料没市场了？官方数据显示新材料市场可是个1.3万亿的"大块头"，近十年还以超过10%的速度在 狂奔。 而且最重要的是里头还真有不少"卡脖子"的材料缺口——整体自给率连60%都不到！这不机会不就来了 么！ 目前全球市场主要被Syensqo、巴斯夫、塞拉尼斯、东丽等国际巨头主导，国内布局较广的只有金发科 技和沃特科技，新和成、德众泰等在个别产品上领先，但整体产品线和稳定性仍有差距。 但随着国家重点发展的9大战略性新兴产业和6大未来产业的快速崛起，人形机器人、量子计算、6G设 备、脑机接口等创新产品都离不开这些高性能材料。预计"十五五"期间，消费量年均增速仍将保持在 10%以上。 预计到2027年，市场规模将冲到1.8万亿元。 但如果想抓住这次机遇，挑战依然不小：研发创新、核心技术、人才短缺、工艺协同、国际竞争、资金 风险… ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is set to experience an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, as outlined in the recently released "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by multiple government departments [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, slowing domestic demand growth, and increased external uncertainties [3]. - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and aims to manage the pace of new capacity for ethylene and paraxylene, while supporting the renovation of outdated facilities and the "reduce oil and increase chemicals" initiative [3][4]. Group 2: Focus on High-End Supply - There is a notable shortage in high-end chemical new materials and fine chemicals, necessitating improvements in the supply of key products and raw materials [4][5]. - The plan identifies electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, and specialty rubbers as key areas for technological innovation and effective supply enhancement [5]. Group 3: Emerging Market Opportunities - The demand for materials in emerging fields is robust, with applications in sectors such as electric vehicle battery materials, carbon fiber composites, and specialty engineering plastics [5][6]. - PEEK, a high-performance polymer, is highlighted for its potential to replace metals in various applications, including humanoid robots, due to its superior strength-to-weight ratio and durability [6]. Group 4: Industry Structural Optimization - Recent high-level meetings have focused on preventing "involution" or excessive competition within the industry, leading to a more optimized supply-demand structure [7][8]. - The chemical industry is witnessing a shift from a focus on expansion to optimizing existing capacities and pursuing high-quality growth, which is expected to create better investment opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical and petrochemical industry, with an emphasis on stable growth and structural optimization [4][7]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, issued a notice regarding the "Stabilization and Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at promoting stable operation and structural optimization in the industry [4][7]. - The main goals for 2025 include an average annual growth of over 5% in the added value of the petrochemical and chemical industry, stabilization of economic benefits, significant enhancement of technological innovation capabilities, and continuous improvement in quality development [9]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, pollution reduction, and high-quality development, with an upward adjustment in growth expectations compared to previous plans [9]. Supply Side Summary - The report outlines measures to enhance high-end supply, effectively constrain traditional new projects, and optimize the structure of existing capacity [9]. - Key initiatives include supporting the development of critical products in electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, and special rubber, while preventing irrational capacity expansion in traditional sectors [9]. - The report also highlights the need for a comprehensive upgrade of outdated facilities and the implementation of a standard system for evaluating and transforming these facilities [9]. Demand Side Summary - The report suggests exploring new application scenarios and expanding international cooperation to stimulate market demand [9]. - It emphasizes the importance of developing materials for new energy, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots, as well as promoting the application of green ammonia and green alcohol in marine fuel markets [9]. - The report advocates for deeper participation in high-quality Belt and Road initiatives and the development of overseas resources [9]. Industry Outlook - The report concludes that the petrochemical and chemical industry is expected to gradually improve, with a more orderly new supply and more efficient existing supply [9]. - It recommends focusing on sub-industries that are at the bottom of the economic cycle, such as organic silicon, polyester filament, glyphosate, and industrial silicon [9]. - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to industries that are at very low levels or undergoing clearance, such as soda ash, and highlights leading companies in the refrigerant industry and major players in the refining and coal chemical sectors [9].

继多个行业稳增长方案出台后，石化化工行业纲领文件终于落地。 9月26日，工业和信息化部等7部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025－2026年）》（以下 简称《工作方案》）。《工作方案》提出，2025—2026年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上。 《工作方案》锚定清晰系列目标：严格控制新增炼油等产能；支持电子化学品、高端聚烯烃等关键产品 攻关；培育新能源、低空经济等新兴领域应用场景；加强精细化工、绿色低碳、人工智能等领域交流合 作。 "严控新增产能投放节奏，是避免行业陷入大幅过剩、产品价格快速恶化的关键。对于已经过剩的行 业，更需通过老旧装置改造、控产能、环保整改等组合措施，优化产品供需格局。"东吴证券研究所能 源化工行业首席分析师陈淑娴对上海证券报记者表示。 严控新增炼油产能 优化高端精细化学品供给 多年来，我国连续位居世界第二石化大国、第一化工大国。当前，石化化工行业仍面临基础有机原料市 场竞争加剧、高端精细化学品供给不足、国内需求增速放缓、外部不确定性增加等挑战，行业转型升级 压力凸显。针对这一供需现状，《工作方案》从"控增量、补短板"两方面提出具体举措。 在产能调控上，文件明确要求严控新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments, aiming for an annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value during this period, with a focus on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, and collaboration [2]. Group 1: Strengthening Technological Innovation - Enhance high-end supply by focusing on key industrial chains such as integrated circuits and new energy, supporting the development of electronic chemicals and high-performance materials through collaborative innovation [3]. - Ensure stable supply of fertilizers by optimizing production plans and establishing long-term contracts between raw material suppliers and fertilizer producers [3]. - Optimize pilot project management to enhance innovation development momentum by streamlining approval processes and reducing environmental assessment burdens for pilot projects [4]. Group 2: Expanding Effective Investment - Control major project construction scientifically, limiting new refining capacity and supporting the transformation of outdated facilities [5]. - Implement safety upgrades for aging facilities, establishing a standard system for evaluation and renovation, and ensuring the relocation of hazardous chemical production enterprises by the end of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Accelerating Digital and Green Transformation - Promote digital transformation in the petrochemical industry by establishing benchmarks and typical scenarios, and supporting enterprises in energy-saving and pollution reduction efforts [6]. - Develop standards for pollution reduction and carbon reduction, including guidelines for green hydrogen and digital transformation maturity assessments [7]. Group 4: Expanding Market Demand - Facilitate supply-demand matching by organizing product connection activities and promoting stable cooperation between production enterprises and downstream users [8]. - Explore new applications in emerging industries such as new energy and low-altitude economy, and promote the use of green products [8]. Group 5: Developing High-Quality Growth Engines - Build high-quality chemical parks and industrial clusters, focusing on safety and competitiveness evaluations, and enhancing collaboration with national economic development zones [9]. Group 6: Deepening Open Cooperation - Expand international cooperation by addressing changes in the international trade environment and leveraging free trade agreements to enhance the export of petrochemical products [10].

人工智能+交通运输、数字经济、石化化工等领域，都迎来政策支持！ 9月26日消息，交通运输部、国家发改委、国家数据局等七部门发布《关于"人工智能+交通运输"的实施意 见》。 其中提出，加快智能驾驶系统、远程驾驶座舱等产品研发。开展智能驾驶大模型、成套测评技术提升 行动，拓展服务场景。推动产学研用各方深化数据共享，建设高质量人工智能大模型训练数据集。 国家发改委、国家数据局、财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会等六部门联合印发《关于加强数字 经济创新型企业培育的若干措施》的通知。 其中提出，加快构建全国一体化算力网，加强对人工智能、垂类 大模型等数创企业培育，加大力度支持符合条件的优质数创企业上市融资。 工信部、生态环境部、中国人民银行等七部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》。 其中 提出，加强重大石化、现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，严控新增炼油产能，合理确定乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能 规模和投放节奏。工作方案还提出，增强高端化供给。聚焦集成电路、新能源、医疗装备等重点产业链需求， 支持电子化学品、高端聚烯烃、高性能纤维、特种橡胶、高性能膜材料等领域的关键产品攻关。 来看详细报道！ 七部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to address challenges and promote high-quality development in the petrochemical sector through innovation, efficiency improvement, demand expansion, and collaboration among various stakeholders [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, with significant economic volume and high industrial correlation, impacting industrial stability and economic operation [1][5]. - China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of petrochemical products, with the industry's added value expected to account for 14.9% of industrial output in 2024, growing at a rate of 6.6%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the industrial average [1]. Group 2: Current Challenges - The industry faces intensified competition in basic organic raw materials, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties [2][5]. - Current domestic chemical product price indices, profit margins, and industry valuations are at low levels, while global demand for chemical products remains weak [2]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The Work Plan sets a target for the petrochemical industry's added value to grow by over 5% annually from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic benefits and enhancing technological innovation capabilities [2][7]. - Emphasis will be placed on improving the quality and safety of production, reducing pollution and carbon emissions, and transitioning chemical parks from standard construction to high-quality development [2][7]. Group 4: Key Initiatives - The plan includes supporting key product breakthroughs in electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, and promoting the upgrade of bulk products like coatings and pesticides [3][8]. - It aims to expand market demand by organizing supply-demand matching activities and exploring consumption potential in traditional sectors like construction and automotive, as well as emerging fields such as new energy and robotics [3][15]. Group 5: Investment and Policy Support - The plan calls for scientific control of major project construction, particularly in refining and ethylene production, and emphasizes the need for safety upgrades in aging facilities [11][12]. - It encourages the use of long-term special bonds and other policy channels to support technological innovation and equipment upgrades in the petrochemical sector [19].

新华财经北京9月26日电（记者李唐宁刘旭阳）工业和信息化部、生态环境部、应急管理部等七部门联 合印发的《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（以下简称"工作方案"）26日正式公布， 提出了2025—2026年石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上，经济效益企稳回升，产业科技创新能力显 著增强等目标。 分析人士认为，过去几年我国石化化工行业优化供给结构的压力比较大，企业盈利能力承压。本次工作 方案从提升有效供给能力入手，挖掘传统产业潜力和培育新兴应用需求并举，将推动行业"内卷式"竞争 等难点问题的解决。随着方案落地，科技创新中试项目、老旧装置改造、新兴产业配套材料等方向会迎 来显著发展机会。 提升有效供给扩大有效投资 石化化工行业经济总量大、产业关联度高，事关工业稳定增长、经济平稳运行。我国是全球最大的石化 化工产品生产国和消费国，炼油、乙烯、合成树脂等20多类基础化学品产品产能居世界首位。 但也要看到，石化化工行业仍面临多方面问题和困难。接受新华财经记者采访的业内人士表示，当前行 业结构性矛盾突出，基础大宗原料如煤制甲醇等产能冗余度高、烯烃和芳烃等基础原料产能投放节奏亟 需调控。同时，高端化工新材 ...