Group 1: Report Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The egg market showed a slight decline in this week's trading. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3046 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 26 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The ongoing losses in the breeding sector have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling of old hens. The inventory of laying hens continues to decline from its high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment is still lower than the same period last year, which is favorable for future prices [6]. - However, the current inventory of laying hens is still at a high level. Recently, the Spring Festival stocking sentiment has reached its peak, and the inventory at all levels has decreased. Some inventories have been cleared, and traders are more active in purchasing, with a faster turnover rate. Egg prices have risen significantly, and the profits of the breeding sector have improved, which has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old hens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - term market price [6]. - After the New Year's Day, the futures market has also shown a relatively strong and volatile trend, boosted by the continuous rise in spot prices. However, the high inventory pressure continues to affect the futures market trend. It is recommended to participate in the short - term trading [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures Price and Top Twenty Positions - The March contract of egg futures showed a slight decline, with a trading volume of 270,982 lots, an increase of 7,784 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top twenty was +10,286, compared with +1,787 last week, indicating a slight increase in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of eggs was reported at 3907 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 263 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract of egg futures and the average spot price was reported at +861 yuan per ton [22]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the March and May contracts of egg futures was reported at - 466 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is generally at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.5 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.66 yuan per kilogram [32]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Conditions Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [38]. Culling Index and Culling Age of Laying Hens - As of December 31, 2025, the national culling index of laying hens was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national culling age of laying hens was reported at 500 days [43]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2370 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3140 yuan per ton [47]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 16, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.08 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens - As of January 16, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.0 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 8.78 yuan per kilogram [58]. Monthly Egg Export Volume - According to data released by the Chinese Customs, in December 2025, the total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2,767.32 tons compared with 12,131.40 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was also an increase of 1,853.21 tons compared with 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. Group 4: Representative Company - The report also mentioned the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd [65].

Core Insights - The value of eggs is being redefined as consumers shift focus from price and freshness to high-quality, safe-to-eat eggs driven by health awareness and upgraded consumption demands [1][2] Group 1: Health and Nutritional Demand - The traditional perception of eggs being "good" is evolving from just "fresh" and "cheap" to a focus on nutritional content, particularly the benefits of egg yolk for specific demographics such as pregnant women, children, and the elderly [2] - High-quality, safe-to-eat eggs meet the growing demand for nutritional density, with examples like Huang Tian E eggs containing up to 35% of the daily required choline for adults, which is significant for cognitive development in children and cognitive protection in the elderly [2] Group 2: Safety and Production Standards - Safety concerns regarding eggs, particularly the risk of Salmonella infection, are being addressed through stringent production processes that minimize risks, especially for vulnerable populations [3] - Huang Tian E's production system includes multiple rounds of Salmonella testing and purification, strict health checks for chicks, and controlled environments to prevent contamination, establishing a safety "moat" for safe-to-eat eggs [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Choices - The market for "sterile eggs" is currently chaotic, with some sellers misleading consumers about safety standards, emphasizing the need for consumers to choose products that meet strict Salmonella testing and production standards [4] - Huang Tian E is positioned as a leading brand in the safe-to-eat egg market, contributing to the establishment of industry standards through collaboration with organizations to define testing requirements for pathogens, providing consumers with traceable quality assurance [4]

Group 1 - The national egg price is stable at 3.68 yuan per jin, with no month-on-month change, while specific regional prices also remain steady [1] - The current inventory of laying hens in December is 1.344 billion, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.59% but a year-on-year increase of 5%, indicating a recovery in supply [1] - The futures market shows a slight increase in net long positions, with a total of 381,400 long contracts and 359,700 short contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.06 [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing increased supply due to the release of previously stored goods, leading to a "supply increase and demand slowdown" scenario, which puts short-term pressure on egg prices [4] - Despite the current high prices and slow sales in consumption areas, family consumption during the Spring Festival is expected to provide support for prices, limiting the downward potential [4] - The egg futures market is showing a stable performance, with some price adjustments in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains positive due to improving industry fundamentals [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Considering that the March contract is a post - Spring Festival contract and egg demand is weak after the Spring Festival, the upward space of the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited. [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.64 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing price fluctuations. [4] - In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. [5] - From January 16th, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. [5] - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low. [5] - As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week. [6] - As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly decreasing. [6] - Today, the national price of slaughtered hens increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. [7] 2. Trading Logic - Due to the approaching Spring Festival, the overall market sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly, which provides some support for the futures market. The egg industry is currently in the process of capacity reduction, and it is expected that the capacity will continue to decline in the next few months. [8] 3. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts at low prices. [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [10]

卓创资讯白羽肉鸡行业资深分析师孙亚男 【导语】1月上旬河北粉壳鸡蛋价格在供需双重利好下，结束低位盘整开启强势反弹。当前蛋价短期趋 稳，但春节前需求尚未完全释放，中旬仍有上涨空间。不过随着后期库存释放及外销需求减弱，下旬蛋 价下跌风险将有所上升。 1月上旬河北粉蛋价格强势反弹 1月上旬河北粉壳鸡蛋价格结束两个月来的低位盘整状态，价格强势反弹。根据卓创数据监测显示，1 日-11日河北粉蛋均价由121元/箱上涨至138元/箱，上涨17元/箱，涨幅高达14.05%，涨势较为显著。12 日河北粉蛋价格暂歇上涨步伐，转入止涨走稳状态。在此背景下，市场各方普遍关注，后续蛋价能否延 续上涨态势，春节前价格高点又将定格在何种水平（注：河北粉蛋取馆陶、石家庄45斤箱装鸡蛋均 价）。 供应略减，需求好转，双重利好拉动蛋价上涨 由于11-12月份鸡蛋价格持续在底部徘徊，养殖单位多顺势出栏大日龄蛋鸡，加之新开产蛋鸡数量逐渐 下降，在产蛋鸡存栏量呈现高位回落态势。根据卓创资讯监测数据显示，2025年12月份河北在产蛋鸡存 栏量约为1.11亿只，环比减幅0.54%。存栏量略有下降，鸡蛋供应压力稍有缓解，加之业者对春节前行 情多有看涨预期， ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful export of 360,000 high-quality eggs from Shuo Yu Chicken Farm to the UAE marks a significant milestone for the poultry industry in Yangzhuang Town, enhancing the international competitiveness of agricultural products from Yuncheng County [1][3]. Group 1: Product Quality and Standards - Shuo Yu eggs entered the UAE market, known for its strict food import standards, due to the farm's advanced technology and quality control systems [3]. - The farm has implemented a fully automated breeding system, smart environmental controls, and IoT management, ensuring traceability and digital management throughout the production process [3]. - The eggs underwent rigorous domestic and international testing, receiving high recognition for freshness, safety, and quality from the importing party [3]. Group 2: Government Support and Services - The successful export was facilitated by the local government, which optimized the business environment and provided one-stop services to support the enterprise's export intentions [4]. - The government established a task force to assist with understanding UAE import regulations, improving export documentation, and addressing logistical challenges [4]. - The cooperation between the government and the enterprise resulted in a smooth export process, yielding direct economic benefits and valuable international trade experience for the company [4]. Group 3: Future Strategies and Market Expansion - The first batch of eggs exported to the UAE serves as a hopeful starting point for Yangzhuang Town to implement a more proactive agricultural "going out" strategy [5]. - The town aims to support leading enterprises like Shuo Yu in consolidating existing markets and expanding into Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia [5]. - There is a focus on summarizing the "Shuo Yu experience" to guide more local agricultural enterprises in meeting international standards and developing competitive export brands [5].

Core Viewpoint - The egg production industry is facing continuous losses due to high feed costs and low egg prices, prompting farmers to eliminate older hens and adopt a cautious approach to restocking, initiating a "capacity reduction" process. The egg price is expected to gradually recover in January 2026 due to a slight decrease in supply and seasonal demand increase around the Spring Festival [2][11]. Group 1: Egg Price Trends - As of December 2025, egg prices are at a low level, with limited upward movement due to sufficient supply and lack of market demand, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among traders [3][12]. - The average price of eggs is approaching the "3 yuan" mark, with feed costs significantly impacting profitability, resulting in a loss of approximately 0.20 yuan per egg [12][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The egg production process is influenced by seasonal price fluctuations, with farmers traditionally culling older hens before the Spring Festival and restocking new chicks in the spring [14]. - By the end of December 2025, there was a notable increase in the culling of older hens, with a more than 1% increase in market supply, indicating the start of the industry's capacity reduction journey [14][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In January 2026, the number of new laying hens is expected to decrease due to low restocking enthusiasm, while the number of older hens to be culled may increase, leading to a slight reduction in the overall laying hen population [15]. - The anticipated decrease in egg supply, combined with increased purchasing activity from food manufacturers ahead of the Spring Festival, is expected to tighten market supply and demand, supporting egg prices to rise to around 3.20 yuan per jin [17][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. However, due to the off - season demand in the first half of the year, the increase in the spot price is limited. In the second half of the year, if the first - half egg price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if it is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The second half of the year is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3149, up 45 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3544, up 8; JD09 closed at 3952, down 9. The 01 - 05 spread was - 395, up 37; 05 - 09 was - 408, up 17; 09 - 01 was 803, down 54. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Market**: The main producing area average price was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin; the main selling area average price was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices mostly continued to rise, and the prices of eggs in Beijing markets increased by 4 yuan per box. The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin [2][4][7] 2. Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales**: The average price of the main producing areas increased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and that of the main selling areas increased by 0.06 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices mostly rose, and the egg prices in Beijing markets and those in many regions increased. The sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was at a low level in history [4][5] - **Inventory**: In December, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatch of egg - laying chicken seedlings in December was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% decrease year - on - year. The weekly average inventory of the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing; the weekly average inventory of the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing [5][6] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The current profit was 7.66 yuan/feather, an increase of 3.24 yuan from the previous day [2][6] 3. Trading Logic - In the short - term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. However, due to the off - season demand in the first half of the year, the increase in the spot price is limited. In the second half of the year, if the first - half egg price is high, the supply pressure will increase; if it is low, the supply will decrease significantly. The second half of the year is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Consider building long positions in the 5 - month far - month contract at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is entering a critical turning point in 2026, with supply pressures expected to ease as the number of laying hens declines, creating favorable conditions for market balance [1][5]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The number of laying hens is projected to decrease from high levels, with expectations that by mid-2026, the stock will fall below 1.3 billion [1][5]. - The trend of capacity reduction is becoming evident, as the profitability of poultry farming has worsened since May 2022, leading farmers to adjust their breeding strategies and significantly reduce the number of chicks being raised [5][11]. - The culling of older hens is accelerating, with the average age of culled hens dropping to around 490 days, indicating a peak in culling expected in the first quarter of 2026 [5][11]. Group 2: Price and Profitability - The current price of eggs is 6.02 yuan per kilogram, while feed costs are at 2.66 yuan per kilogram, resulting in a feed-to-egg price ratio of 2.34, with a projected loss of 26.60 yuan per hen [3][9]. - Despite a slight increase in egg prices due to pre-New Year stocking, prices have stabilized as downstream stocking ends, with expectations of a modest price increase in the coming week [3][9]. - The egg market is characterized by uncertainty and development opportunities, with the restructuring of supply and demand dynamics being a key focus for the year [3][11]. Group 3: Demand Factors - Seasonal fluctuations in demand persist, but there are structural positive changes, with a slowdown in restaurant revenue growth potentially suppressing some demand [5][11]. - The expected pressure on pork prices in the first half of the year may enhance the cost-effectiveness of eggs, providing a supportive alternative demand for the egg market [5][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a state of wide - range low - level oscillation, while the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3011 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 11; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30455 hands, a decrease of 739 hands; the egg futures spread between May and September is - 408 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 17; the futures open interest of the active contract is 244170 hands, an increase of 12584 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 2 hands, a decrease of 21 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.27 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09; the basis (spot - futures) is 255 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 76 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.21; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 101.18 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 13.26; the average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, unchanged; the new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (2015 = 100), an increase of 26.53; the average price of layer compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.39 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.08; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.16; the age of culled chickens nationwide is 500 days, a decrease of 10 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.95 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, an increase of 0.09; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, an increase of 0.09; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, an increase of 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7147 tons, an increase of 124 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong's main producing area is 6.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.21 compared with yesterday; in Hebei, it is 6.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.18; in Guangdong, it is 7.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20; in Beijing, it is 6.50 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling volume of old hens. The laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2]