随着北方气温逐步走低，脂肪与碳水似乎成了冬季餐桌的主角。许多人以为多吃热量就够了，但营 养学专家提醒：真正值得关注的是高质量蛋白质——它对免疫、肌肉与整体健康的重要性，远比你想象 的更大。 鸡蛋：最平价、最优质的蛋白来源之一 一项营养综述指出，鸡蛋蛋白被广泛认为是"高生物价值蛋白"的典范，几乎包含人体所需的全部必 需氨基酸，消化率和吸收率都很高。 与普通食材相比，鸡蛋这种动物蛋白，不仅对维持肌肉健康、防止肌肉流失、改善免疫功能、促进 儿童生长、支持老年人骨骼维护，都有明确益处。 因此，对于冬季人群——尤其是老人、儿童、体弱者——适量补充鸡蛋，能比仅靠高热量食物更有 效保障营养均衡和抵抗力。 黄天鹅方面曾公开表示，其鸡蛋通过严格的多环节监控与检测流程，生产过程不使用抗生素，对潜 在病菌(如沙门氏菌)做全链条防控，并严格管理饲料来源与鸡舍环境，以确保"每一枚鸡蛋都达到可生 食标准"。 此外，该品牌的鸡蛋饲料配方中加入天然植物类饲料(如玉米、万寿菊等)，让蛋黄更为饱满、营养 成分更丰富，天然类胡萝卜素等抗氧化物质的含量也更高。 因此，在蛋白质摄入的同时，也能兼顾营养密度与食品安全 —— 对冬季人体需求尤其重要。 冬 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、全国产蛋鸡存栏下滑但绝对量仍处于高位 全国产蛋鸡存栏量从2025年9月起开始下降，产能见顶后的拐点或已出现。不过，虽然产蛋鸡存栏量月 环比下行，但是斜率平缓且产蛋鸡存栏的绝对量仍处于近年历史同期最高位，庞大的供应压力较前期仅 是略降，现货市场鸡蛋供应压力仍较大。据钢联数据显示，2025年11月全国13个重点省份产蛋鸡存栏量 总和为13.07亿只，前一月为13.11亿只，月环比降幅0.31%，去年同期为12.05亿只，同比增幅8.46%。 二、行业淘鸡节奏存在反复可能 养殖利润亏损是当前主导产能去化的核心驱动，单斤鸡蛋利润处于盈亏平衡线下，养殖边际利润为负， 为减少持续亏损，养殖端加速老鸡淘汰以缩减规模，全国淘汰鸡平均出栏日龄不断走低，淘汰鸡出栏量 持续走高。据钢联数据显示，截至2025年11月28日当周，全国代表地区淘汰鸡平均出栏日龄为489天， 较前一月减少8天，较去年同期减少46天；淘汰鸡周度出栏量为66.9万只，月环比增幅为8.52%，同比增 幅为21.22%。淘汰加速有利于缓解产蛋鸡高存栏带来的供应压力，但是淘鸡出栏日龄已偏低，养殖 ...

信用破题，让资产"活"起来 资金短缺、抵押物不足，曾是横亘在许多意图扩大生产的养殖户面前的一道坎。如何让农户的"信用"变 成可用的"资本"，是邮储银行湖北省分行着力破解的首要课题。 在十堰市郧阳区南化塘镇，养殖户刘正勇对此深有体会。他的永诚牧业已发展成年存栏蛋鸡18万羽、青 年鸡20万羽的规模企业。今年，他投入近300万元扩建厂房、升级设备，却遭遇市场价格波动，资金周 转一时捉襟见肘。 近年来，湖北省委、省政府将家禽及蛋制品产业列为湖北十大重点农业产业链之一。湖北禽蛋产业带动 全省百万农户、数百万就业岗位，成为江汉平原、鄂东丘陵等地区农民的"钱袋子产业"，在保障农产品 供给、促进农民增收中发挥着重要作用。 然而，融资难题一度制约着禽蛋产业规模化、标准化发展。传统养殖模式下，农户多以家庭为单位经 营，缺乏标准化厂房、固定资产等传统抵押物，申请贷款时常面临"申请难、审批慢、额度低"的困境 ——不少养殖户因资金缺口错过鸡苗采购黄金期、放弃扩建机会，甚至在鸡蛋价格上扬时因收购资金不 足错失订单。 近年来，邮储银行湖北省分行聚焦禽蛋产业高质量发展需求，以"一县一品"特色服务模式为抓手，通过 产品创新、链式服务和效率提升 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3138 | 3202 | -64 | 01-05 | -463 | -450 | -13 | | JD05 | 3601 | 3652 | -51 | 05-09 | -499 | -465 | -34 | | JD09 | 4100 | 4117 | -17 | 09-01 | 962 | 915 | 47 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.39 | 1.43 | -0.04 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.03 | 1.05 | -0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1 ...

来源：饲料市场 对于12月行情，业内普遍判断是"震荡上行，但空间有限"。 供应方面出现好转迹象：11月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量环比下降0.31%，预计12月存栏量将继续回落。这意 味着市场供应压力有所缓解，但总体仍处高位。 需求端有望温和复苏：受"双12"和元旦前备货拉动，食品企业将启动节前生产，预计鸡蛋销量环比增长 5%-8%。 综合判断，12月鸡蛋价格将呈现前稳后升走势，主产区月均价预计在3.10-3.20元/斤区间，月内高点有 望触及3.30-3.40元/斤。 各位养殖户朋友们，12月刚开头，鸡蛋市场就传来新动静——多个产区蛋价悄悄站上了3元大关。这是 否意味着持续数月的低价阴霾即将散去？今天，就带大家看清12月鸡蛋价格的真正走势。 一、当前市场：低位回暖，涨势初现 最新行情显示，主产区鸡蛋均价已回升至3.09元/斤，北京新发地等主要销区价格也达到3.07-3.18元/ 斤。这一波反弹来之不易。 回想11月，蛋价一度跌至2.7-2.8元/斤，创下近三年同期新低，养殖户亏损面扩大，淘汰老鸡的积极性 明显提升。正是11月的深跌为12月的反弹创造了条件。随着价格触底，贸易商开始补库，加上天冷利于 储存，市场走货加快 ...

文 | 姜振飞 来源 | NB的农产品 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今日近月合约再度大跌，主要是前期市场对淘鸡节奏以及春节需求预期较高导致盘面升水较大， 期货盘面在交割月以及临近交割月走期现回归以及挤升水的逻辑，而远月合约持续上涨主要是四 季度现货价格低迷，市场补栏情绪较低，淘鸡量相对较大，供需过剩结构呈现逐步消化的趋势， 但目前行业产能潜力较大，鸡源较为充裕，加上未来不确定性的淘鸡节奏以及换羽情况，因此短 期的低水平补栏并不能完全代表着未来对应产能下降的幅度。从市场调研信息来看，对产业数据 以及信息了解的规模化企业对明年行情并不悲观，有扩张意愿，但中小规模企业以及散户，因数 据信息闭塞，仅关注当前行情，相对有些悲观，但若年前现货价格回暖以及春节后半个月现货价 格维持3元/斤以上的关口，中小规模企业以及散户根据往年养殖经验，其养殖信心将恢复，淘鸡 情绪将下降，补栏量及换羽量或将增加，因此明年供给端并不存在较为明显的缺口，出现单边趋 势的概率较小，不宜过度看涨明年鸡蛋价格。 期货方面，从期货升水结构来看，市场对明年行情较为期待，但中间涉及变量较多，远月单边逻 辑风险的较大。从交易的角度来看，远月持续 ...

Core Insights - The poultry and egg products industry in Hubei has been identified as one of the top ten key agricultural industry chains, significantly contributing to the income of millions of farmers and providing numerous job opportunities [1][8] - Traditional farming methods have led to financing challenges for farmers, hindering the scale and standardization of the poultry industry [1][2] - Postal Savings Bank of Hubei has developed innovative financial products and services to support the high-quality development of the poultry industry, including credit loans without collateral [2][3][6] Financing Challenges - Farmers often face difficulties in obtaining loans due to a lack of traditional collateral, leading to missed opportunities for expansion and procurement [1][2] - The "Two Agricultural Credit Value Loan" product allows farmers to secure loans based on their creditworthiness rather than physical collateral [3][7] Financial Support Initiatives - The Postal Savings Bank has issued over 50 billion yuan in small loans to more than 30,000 poultry industry clients, with over 11 billion yuan disbursed this year alone [1][5] - The bank's "chain service" approach extends financial support across the entire poultry industry chain, from farming to processing, ensuring sustainable development [4][5] Case Studies - A farmer in Shiyan City successfully secured a 200,000 yuan loan in just three days, enabling him to expand his operations and potentially increase sales by 10 million yuan [2][3] - Another farmer in Huanggang City has grown his poultry operation from 5,000 to 150,000 birds with continuous support from the Postal Savings Bank [4][5] Innovative Financial Models - The "Postal Agricultural Quick Loan" model allows for rapid loan approval and disbursement, significantly benefiting farmers during critical production periods [6][7] - The collaboration with provincial agricultural guarantee companies has further reduced financing costs for farmers [7] Future Outlook - The Postal Savings Bank aims to continue enhancing its financial services for rural development, focusing on innovative products and efficient service delivery to support the growth of the poultry industry [8]

短多长空思路 鸡蛋周报 2025/11/29 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内蛋价主流平稳，后半程小幅上涨，周内供应依然充足，需求无明显好转，蛋价上涨幅度较有限，周内老鸡淘汰继续加快， 鸡龄回落至489天；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周涨0.1元至2.8元/斤，周内最低2.7元/斤，馆陶周涨0.11元至2.69/斤，周内最低2.56元/斤，销 区回龙观周涨0.18元至3.05元/斤，东莞周持平于2.83元/斤；展望下周，在产存栏维持偏高，小蛋占比缓慢回落，气温不高，轮库方式下库 存压力不大，需求端支撑有限，但随着蛋价阶段低位的到来，短暂补库或支撑蛋价小涨。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，10月份补栏量进一步下降至7830万只，环比-0.1%，同比-12.7%； 蛋价反弹无力，养殖亏损扩大 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of eggs is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend, while the February and March contracts can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5][32] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated weakly. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.7 - 2.8 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 2.9 - 3.09 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The laying hens in the supply side were still at a high level but had eased compared to before. November was the off - season for egg consumption, so the overall egg price performance was average [4] 1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. In December, the demand for eggs will enter the peak season. Affected by seasonality, egg prices may rebound, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract has the expectation of Spring Festival stocking, but it has already given a certain premium, so it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices [5] 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The January contract will be range - bound, and the February contract can be considered for short - selling at high prices. Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, the spot price of eggs fluctuated. The average price in the main production areas was around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas, it was around 3 - 3.2 yuan/jin. The January egg futures contract fluctuated within a range. The demand in November was average, and the spot price changed little. On the one hand, the demand was less than in previous years; on the other hand, the current laying hen inventory was still at a high level, and the market was worried about future egg prices, so the futures price fluctuated weakly [10] 2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side**: In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. In November, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (a low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.29% (a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 15.95% (a medium - high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in November was about 91.94%, remaining stable and is expected to maintain the current level as the weather gets colder. In October, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan/feather, the same as last month. Recently, due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the breeding profit was in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased. From November 21st, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.21 million, a 3.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 492 days, one day less than the previous week [11][13] - **Demand Side**: The demand in November was average, and the seasonal peak season was less prosperous than in previous years. Although the recent demand has recovered, it is still at a medium - low level in the same period over the years. As of the week of November 21st, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7472 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week. From January to October 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 44121.69 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. In October, the absolute value of catering revenue was 51.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [20] - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21st, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [20] - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In November, the corn price was 2309 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3076 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2539 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.79 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. As of November 21st, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 14th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 7.19 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [22] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On November 24th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 126.65. The vegetable price has risen significantly recently but is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of November 24th, the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.04 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [27] 3. Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is still under pressure and is not expected to improve significantly in the short term. The demand side will enter the peak season in December, and egg prices may rebound seasonally, but the rebound amplitude will be limited due to supply - side disturbances. The January futures contract is expected to strengthen, but since it has already given a certain premium, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The February and March contracts are post - Spring Festival contracts. If the supply side pressure does not improve significantly and the demand is average, short - selling at high prices can be considered [32]

【消息面汇总】 中泰期货：养殖端持续亏损下，情绪转向悲观，淘鸡积极性较高，淘鸡持续偏快，叠加新鸡开产水平环 比下降，而养殖端补栏持续低迷，蛋鸡在产存栏水平触顶下滑，市场对远期预期向好。不过当前在产存 栏基数较大，下滑速度缓慢，叠加冷库蛋压力，预计春节前鸡蛋供应压力仍或偏高，鸡蛋短期反转概率 不高。对于后市，去产能进程快慢与现货强弱匹配度或成为主要矛盾，目前远期合约升水现货，关注现 货表现强弱对期货预期的证伪或证实。 10月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量13.59亿羽，环比下降0.66%，同比实现增长5.5%。存栏量处于近9年最高水 平，供应快速恢复兑现。按补苗趋势看，11月蛋鸡存栏量或有小幅回落，同比或仍处近10年最高水平。 11月27日，鸡蛋期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨2.12%，报3283.00元/500千克。 机构观点 截至2025年11月20日，淘鸡日龄平均492天，环比上周提前1天，较上月提前7天，表明淘汰速度有所加 速。 现货方面，今日主产区山东鸡蛋均价6.09元/公斤，较昨日价格上涨0.14；河北鸡蛋均价5.63元/公斤，较 昨日价格上涨0.02；广东鸡蛋均价6.73元/公斤，与昨日价格持 ...