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供给压力主导下 蛋价维持偏弱走势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-03 12:05
Core Insights - The egg prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and supply pressure, with average prices in major production areas showing a downward trend [1][4] - As of June 3, the national average egg prices in various regions are reported, with notable prices in Shandong at 6.90 yuan/kg and Fujian at 7.00 yuan/kg [2] - The futures market shows a decline in egg futures, with the main contract closing at 2897.00 yuan/500 kg, down 1.16% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of May, the monthly sales volume of eggs in major consumption areas is 37,200 tons, a decrease of 5.68% compared to April [3] - The inventory levels in the production and circulation stages are at historically low levels, with production inventory at 0.98 days and circulation inventory at 1.07 days [3] - The number of laying hens as of May 2025 is 1.334 billion, showing a slight increase compared to previous months, indicating a high supply level [3] Market Dynamics - The firm corn prices are providing cost support for egg production, while the current egg prices are at a low level for the year, leading to replenishment demand in the market [4] - High levels of laying hen inventory and increased production pressure from newly added hens are contributing to a sufficient supply of eggs [4] - The impact of hot and humid weather is raising storage costs for eggs, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream distributors [4]
鸡蛋市场周报:现货持续偏低运行,期价维持低位震荡-20250530
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 10:26
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.30」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货持续偏低运行 期价维持低位震荡 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话:0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议:短期观望为主。 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋: Ø 行情回顾:本周鸡蛋低位震荡,09合约收盘价为3757元/500千克,较前一周-5元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望:玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑,且蛋价处于年内地位,市场逢低有补货需求, 叠加端午节前备货带来一定的支撑。不过,目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位,前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压 力较大,鸡蛋供应比较充足。且受湿热天气影响,鸡蛋存储成本增加,下游经销商采购谨慎,蛋 价处于同期偏低水平。如果后期现货价格持续偏低,或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积 极性,对远期价格有所利好,关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看,现货价格持续处于低 位,拖累期价总体偏弱。 「 期现市场情况 ...
鸡蛋市场周报:现货再度转跌,期价维持低位震荡-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 09:35
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.23」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货再度转跌 期价维持低位震荡 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话:0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 Ø 鸡蛋: Ø 行情回顾:本周鸡蛋震荡微跌,09合约收盘价为3762元/500千克,较前一周-26元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望:玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑,且蛋价处于年内地位,市场逢低有补货需求, 且端午节前备货或带来一定的支撑。不过,目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位,前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压 力较大,鸡蛋供应比较充足,供强需弱格局难改。如果后期现货价格持续偏低,或将迫使老鸡淘 汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性,对远期价格有所利好,关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面 来看,现货价格持续处于低位,拖累期价总体低位偏弱震荡。 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议:短期观望为主。 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 4 Ø 鸡蛋期货09合约震荡微跌,持仓量88094手,较前一周+7908 ...
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250522
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 13:23
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 05 月 22 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 一、基本面信息 1、今日主产区均价为 2.98 元/斤,较上一交易日价格上一日下跌 0.03 元/斤,主销区均价 3.17 元/斤,较 上一交易日价格下跌 0.3 元/斤。昨日东莞停车场满仓,1 号停车场剩 48 台车,今日全国主流价格多数维持稳 定,北京各大市场鸡蛋价格维持稳定,北京主流参考价 145 元/44 斤,石门,新发地、回龙观等主流批发价 145 元/44 斤;大洋路鸡蛋主流批发价格 145-147【稳定】按质高低价均有,到货 5 台车正常, 成交灵活,走货正 常。东北辽宁价格稳定、吉林价格稳定,黑龙江蛋价稳定,山西价格落、河北价格多数以稳为主;山东主流价 格稳定 ,河南蛋价稳定、湖北褐蛋价格落、江苏、安徽价格以稳为主,局部鸡蛋价格有高低,蛋价继续震荡 盘整 ,走货正常。 2、根据卓创数据 4 月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量为 13.29 亿 ...
鸡蛋市场周报:存栏压力牵制下,期价维持低位震荡-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 09:10
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 鸡蛋市场周报 存栏压力牵制下 期价维持低位震荡 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话:0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 总结及策略建议 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋: Ø 行情回顾:本周鸡蛋震荡微涨,09合约收盘价为3788元/500千克,较前一周+21元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望:玉米现货价格坚挺对鸡蛋成本有支撑,且连续走低后,蛋价处于年内地位,市场逢低 有补货需求,且端午节前备货或带来一定的支撑,现货价格有止跌回弹倾向。不过,目前蛋鸡存 栏量处于高位,前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力较大,鸡蛋供应比较充足,供强需弱格局难改,或限 制其上涨空间。如果后期现货价格持续偏低,或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性, 对远期价格有所利好,关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看,期价跌至前期低位后,总体 跌势放缓。 Ø 策略建议:短期观望为主。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 1、周度要点 ...
盒马供应商的“无抗鸡蛋”检测出抗生素,打工人加钱买的无菌虫草「概念蛋」有多少套路?
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-16 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The recent detection of antibiotic residues in "antibiotic-free" eggs sold by Hema has sparked significant consumer anxiety regarding food safety, raising questions about the reliability of such labels in the market [1][3][14]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On May 8, the Shandong Provincial Market Supervision Administration announced that a batch of "antibiotic-free" eggs from Hema was found to contain excessive levels of veterinary drug residues, including banned substances [1][3]. - The specific antibiotics detected were dimetridazole and trimethoprim, with the latter exceeding the maximum residue limit set by national standards [5][14]. - The affected eggs were sold by Qingdao Hema Network Technology Co., Ltd. and sourced from Xiaochi Egg Industry (Shandong) Co., Ltd. [3][5]. Group 2: Consumer Reaction - Consumers expressed disbelief and anger upon discovering that the "antibiotic-free" eggs they had been purchasing for years were not safe, leading to a surge in refund requests [9][10]. - Social media platforms saw a rapid increase in discussions and tutorials on how to obtain refunds for the affected eggs, highlighting the urgency of the situation [9][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The incident has led to a broader trust crisis in the market for "antibiotic-free" eggs, with consumers questioning the safety of all egg products [14][19]. - The concept of "antibiotic-free" eggs emerged in response to public concerns over antibiotic residues in food, but the lack of a unified national standard for such products has created confusion [19][22]. - The price of "antibiotic-free" eggs is significantly higher than regular eggs, with some consumers now questioning whether the premium is justified given the recent findings [23][25]. Group 4: Industry Standards and Practices - The absence of clear and consistent standards for "antibiotic-free" labeling allows for varying interpretations among producers, leading to potential consumer deception [19][22]. - The incident has prompted discussions about the need for stricter regulations and clearer definitions regarding what constitutes "antibiotic-free" products in the market [19][22]. - The reliance on self-regulation by companies, such as the claims made by producers about their products, raises concerns about accountability and consumer safety [19][22].
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250515
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 13:38
农产品日报 2025 年 05 月 15 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3696 | 3696 | 0 | 01-05 | 676 | 665 | 11 | | JD05 | 3020 | 3031 | -11 | 05-09 | -775 | -769 | -6 | | JD09 | 3795 | 3800 | -5 | 09-01 | 99 | 104 | -5 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.24 | 1.25 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.31 | ...
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250512
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:43
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 05 月 12 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3702 | 3689 | 13 | 01-05 | 592 | 676 | -84 | | JD05 | 3110 | 3013 | 97 | 05-09 | -690 | -754 | 64 | | JD09 | 3800 | 3767 | 33 | 09-01 | 98 | 78 | 20 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.63 | 1.62 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.34 | ...
正信期货鸡蛋周报2025-5-12:利润出现亏损,淘鸡意愿提升-20250512
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:18
利润出现亏损 淘鸡意愿提升 正信期货鸡蛋周报 2025-5-12 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格明显下降, 淘鸡日龄小幅下降,大小码价差基本持平,鸡苗价 | | | 供应 | 格高位持续回落。 | 偏空 | | | 本周多地淘鸡价跟随蛋价下跌,部分规模化养殖企业顺势淘汰低产能老鸡,辽宁、山东等地 | | | | 老鸡淘汰量小幅增加,但要形成有效的去产能,仍需要时间。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅下降,主产区发货量小幅下降,流通库存和生产环节库存小幅下降。 | | | 需求 | 五一之后蛋价连续下跌,激发了下游市场的抄底情绪,经销商拿货积极性有所带动,产区走 | 中性 | | | 货加快,但终端市场消化节奏一般。随着南方逐渐进入梅雨季,高温高湿条件下,需求面临 | | | | 下降,而供应却在加速增长,供强需弱格局有望延续。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润大幅走低,低于近4年同期平均水平。 | 偏多 | | | 目前养殖利润出现亏损,养殖户可能加速淘汰低效产能。 | | | | 本 ...
中泰期货鸡蛋市场周度报告-20250512
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 08:08
姓名:侯广铭 从业资格号:F3059865 交易咨询从业证书号:Z0013117 联系电话: 0531-81678626 公司地址:济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址: www.ztqh.com 期货交易咨询资格号:证监许可[2012]112 期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012]112 数据概览和行情观点 | | 2025-05-11 | | 单位 | 本期 | 上期 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 解析与预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 馆陶45斤-33斤 | 元/件 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 0. 29 | 5月开产对应12月份补栏,12月补栏数据较高,预计5月开 | | | 开产情况 | | | | | | | 产维持偏高水平,小蛋价格继续走弱。 受蛋价下跌,老鸡养殖亏损,老鸡淘汰节奏加快,淘鸡日 | | | | 浠水45斤-33斤 | 元/件 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 0. 64 | | | | | 淘汰鸡价格 | 元/斤 | 5.15 | 5.22 | -0. 07 ...