Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg market has seen the futures price decline again this week. The current high egg - laying hen inventory and the pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens lead to sufficient egg supply. The spot market price is continuously below expectations. However, high temperatures in many regions have reduced the egg - laying rate of hens, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually picking up, and there is still an expectation of price increase among farmers. Affected by the bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory, the near - month contracts are weakly adjusted, while the far - month contracts are significantly more resistant to decline. The report suggests a light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: This week, the egg 09 contract closed at 3484 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 144 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Outlook**: High inventory and low - expected spot prices coexist with reduced egg - laying rates due to high temperatures and improving demand. Near - month contracts are weak, and far - month contracts are more resistant [8]. - **Strategy**: Light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 09 contract declined again. The position volume was 226,040 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 37,010, with a slight increase in net short position compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 22 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3173 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 214 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 311 yuan/ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 135 yuan/500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of July 31, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.41 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side**: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Egg - laying Hen Elimination**: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national elimination age of hens was 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2920 yuan/ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.06 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [56]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Eliminated Hen Prices**: As of July 25, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.88 yuan/chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.28 yuan/kg [62]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Company The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg spot market has rebounded significantly but is approaching historical涨幅, showing hesitation. The futures market, though rising less, remains in a premium structure. Near the delivery month, the near - month 08 contract will face selling pressure. It is recommended to buy the far - month 09 contract on dips and look for reverse spread opportunities [3]. - The supply side has high - level capacity, with recent new replenishment slowing down, previous replenishment starting to lay eggs, and the elimination of backward capacity slowing. The demand side has improved, but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand [3]. - The cost of feed and comprehensive breeding has slightly declined. Egg prices have returned above the feed cost, and profits have improved [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Egg futures ended their rebound last week and returned to a weak oscillation. The large increase in spot prices needs to be digested, and the premium structure of the futures is being repaired. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Last week, new egg products maintained a high - level oscillation, with the upward momentum slowing down and starting to correct. The current spot rebound is mainly driven by the sales areas. After the bad weather, stocking will provide some support, but the increase is limited. The market has risen from 2.4 yuan/jin to 3.2 yuan/jin, close to the average seasonal increase, and further upward movement requires new event drivers [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - New capacity: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, remaining at a high level and higher than the historical average [19]. - Elimination capacity: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, with a relatively neutral available elimination volume [19]. - Laying - hen inventory: The inventory remains at a high level. New capacity is increasing steadily, new replenishment is slowing down, and the available elimination volume is decreasing steadily. The backward capacity is entering the active elimination stage, but the overall supply pressure still exists [19]. 3.4 Elimination End - The price of culled chickens is 5.76 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.24 yuan/jin. The elimination volume has decreased significantly, and the increase in price restricts the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining stable, and the overall age has returned to the normal range, with the "start - up rate" increasing steadily [22]. 3.5 Demand Side - Seasonally, it is the peak season for tourism and deep - processing demand. The inventory pressure in the production areas is not high, but high temperatures are reducing the laying rate and increasing costs. On the consumption side, after the rainy season, the tourism peak season has arrived, and overall demand has improved [24]. - Vegetable prices are rising due to high - temperature weather, supporting egg prices. Pork prices are oscillating at a high level, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have strengthened recently [26]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - Cost: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices are falling steadily. The overall cost is oscillating, with the current feed cost at about 2.5 yuan/jin and the comprehensive breeding cost at about 2.8 yuan/jin [29]. - Profit: Egg prices have recently returned above the feed cost, but the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in the red, showing a seasonal bottom - bouncing [30]. 3.7 Capital and Market Sentiment - Capital is at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the high - level capacity, seasonal suppression, and the premium of the futures over the spot indicate further downward space. Bulls believe that the valuation is low and the seasonal trend is about to turn positive, making it a good time to buy. Currently, near the delivery month, the bears are winning [33]. 3.8 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures is at a premium. The basis is currently running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen during the peak season [35]. - Spread: In the future, as the cycle capacity declines, reverse spreads should be the main strategy [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg production rates, alleviating supply pressure. Combined with market stocking sentiment, the spot price of eggs bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - sellers in the near - term contracts to exit. However, with a high premium, long - sellers still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - term contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For contracts after September, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment for culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside space for the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. It is recommended to continue to look for short - selling opportunities after price rebounds [12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices rose and then stabilized. High temperatures reduced egg production rates, leading to a shortage of large - sized eggs. Traders were bullish, and market purchasing enthusiasm was high, but cautious sentiment after the price increase led to price stabilization. The increase in egg prices was greater than that of costs, and profitability returned to a balanced state. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, in Guantao by 0.18 yuan to 3.18 yuan/jin, and in Huilongguan by 0.37 yuan to 3.39 yuan/jin, while in Dongguan, it decreased by 0.11 yuan to 3.15 yuan/jin. With high inventory of laying hens, the supply is sufficient, but high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become cautious. Consumption is in the traditional peak season, and it is expected that next week's demand will be weak first and then strong, with egg prices likely to rise again after a small decline [12][21]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Due to low costs, the number of replenished chickens has been high since the second half of last year. However, since May, the monthly replenishment volume has decreased due to increased breeding losses and seasonal factors. In June, it further dropped to 81.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. In June, low - price losses led to a large - scale culling of hens, and the average age of hens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, the bullish sentiment in the market has increased, culling has stagnated, and the age of hens has returned to the current high level of 506 days [12]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of June, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 60 million and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, in line with expectations. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase, peaking at 1.355 billion in November this year, a 1.1% increase from the current level, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [12]. - **Demand**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. With the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds for contracts 09, 10, and 11, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 1 - 2 months, and a core driving logic related to inventory, spot price, cost, demand, and culling. For arbitrage, no strategy is recommended at present [15]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price of eggs rose and then stabilized last week. High temperatures affected production, and large - sized eggs were in short supply, driving up prices. After the increase, cautious sentiment led to price stabilization. Although the supply of laying hens is high, high - quality large - sized eggs are scarce. Consumption is in the peak season, and it is expected that demand will first weaken and then strengthen, with egg prices likely to rise again after a small decline [21]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lost its upward momentum. The current basis is still low, putting pressure on near - term contracts, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [24]. - **Culled Hen Price**: Previously, more old hens were culled, and the price difference between white chickens and culled hens decreased significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, culling has stagnated [27]. - **Chick and Pullet Price**: No specific analysis in the text. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: Due to low costs, the number of replenished chickens has been high since the second half of last year. However, since May, the monthly replenishment volume has decreased due to increased breeding losses and seasonal factors. In June, it further dropped to 81.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [34]. - **Culled Hen Exit**: In June, low - price losses led to a large - scale culling of hens, and the average age of hens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, the bullish sentiment in the market has increased, culling has stagnated, and the age of hens has returned to the current high level of 506 days [37]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of June, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 60 million and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, in line with expectations. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase, peaking at 1.355 billion in November this year, a 1.1% increase from the current level, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [39][42]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. With the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [47]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. Profitability is at a relatively low seasonal level [52]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, inventory pressure has eased, showing a seasonal downward trend, but it is still relatively high compared to the same period [57].

Core Insights - The price of eggs has shown a strong upward trend, increasing from 2.89 yuan per jin to 3.31 yuan per jin, representing a cumulative increase of nearly 15% during the period from July 17 to July 24 [1] Price Overview - As of July 24, egg prices in various regions are as follows: - Yantai, Shandong: 6.90 yuan per jin - Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6.70 yuan per jin - Shanghai: 6.90 yuan per jin - Fuzhou, Fujian: 7.00 yuan per jin - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 3636.00 yuan per 500 kg, with a slight decrease of 0.27% [2] Market Conditions - As of July 17, the average age of broiler chickens is 505 days, which is one day later than the previous week and four days earlier than the previous month - The monthly inventory of laying hens as of the end of June was approximately 1.34 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] Analysis Perspective - According to Hualian Futures research, high temperatures have led to a decline in egg production rates, with farmers showing strong price support sentiment - The market is experiencing smooth sales as southern regions enter the plum rain season, leading to tighter supply in some areas and a noticeable increase in market prices - However, there are no favorable demand signals, and in the medium term, the high inventory of laying hens suggests ample supply, with short-term pressure levels around 3713 yuan [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The egg market has entered a seasonal peak season, with futures and spot prices rising in tandem. Although the number of laying hens in production remains high, new replenishment has slowed down, and the elimination of backward production capacity has accelerated from June to July. Coupled with the recent high - temperature weather, the overall energy efficiency has decreased, and the effective market supply has slowed down. With the arrival of the tourist season and the departure of the rainy season, market stocking enthusiasm has increased, leading to a phased futures - spot linkage rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures - Last week, egg futures rebounded. Previously, the continuous rise in spot prices did not drive the futures up, mainly due to the premium of the futures over the spot, the concentrated delivery pressure in July, and the high inventory supply. However, the high - temperature weather broke through these constraints, initiating a seasonal peak - season rebound [6]. Spot - Last week, egg spot prices rose across the board. Due to the high - temperature weather, the egg - laying rate decreased, the upstream inventory was low, and the market had a strong price - supporting mentality. The downstream, affected by the previous spot price correction, had low inventory and little stocking. The downstream's concentrated procurement led to a tight supply - demand situation and continuous price increases. The spot prices in other production areas in the country have returned to the mid - June high of about 3 yuan per catty. The subsequent rise in spot prices still depends on the support from the demand side [13]. Supply - **New Capacity**: The new production capacity from June to August 2025 corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which is basically at a high level and higher than the historical average. - **Eliminated Capacity**: The normal eliminated capacity from June to August 2025 corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral. - **Laying Hens in Production**: The inventory of laying hens in production remains high. The new capacity is increasing steadily, and the new replenishment has slowed down. The available elimination volume this month is decreasing steadily. Data shows that the backward production capacity has started the active elimination stage, but at a relatively slow pace. Overall, the supply pressure still exists [16]. Elimination - The price of culled chickens is 4.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.29 yuan per catty. As the egg price rises, it rebounds and enters a seasonal strengthening trend. The elimination volume has been rising and is gradually reaching its peak and then falling. As the egg price is about to rise, the elimination will slow down. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining the same, and the overall age has entered the normal range [21]. Seasonal and Substitute Products - Seasonally, with the arrival of the tourist season and the increasing demand for deep - processing, there may be a turnaround in mid - July. The inventory pressure in production areas is not large, but the high - temperature weather has reduced the egg - laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, after the rainy season, the overall demand has improved. - In terms of substitute products, the high - temperature weather has reduced the vegetable supply and increased vegetable prices, which support the egg price to some extent. The pork price is oscillating at a high level, and its substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have strengthened in stages [23][25]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Corn prices are running at a high level, and the spot price of soybean meal is falling steadily. The overall cost remains volatile. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.8 yuan per catty. - **Profit**: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in the red, but it has bottomed out seasonally. The negative feedback on production capacity caused by the profit loss is gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [28][29]. Capital and Market Sentiment - Capital is at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Short - sellers believe that due to the high production capacity and seasonal suppression, there is still room for the price to fall. Long - sellers believe that the valuation is low, and the season is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long [32]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The market expectation is positive. Currently, the basis is running at a low level, waiting for the strengthening trend of the basis brought by the active peak season. - **Spread**: In the future, as the production capacity in the cycle decreases, reverse spreads in the cycle are the main strategy [34][37].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends a light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Currently, the egg market has high egg - laying hen inventory, large new - laying hen pressure from previous replenishment, sufficient egg supply, high storage costs due to hot and humid weather, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. However, as prices reach a low level, the old - hen culling process has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. High temperatures in many areas have led to a decline in the laying rate, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually recovering, and the farmers' expectation of price increases has promoted a low - level rebound in egg prices. The futures market has also seen a slowdown in the decline due to the stabilization of the spot market [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: Light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed up in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3595 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 15 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The current situation is a high inventory of egg - laying hens, large new - laying hen pressure, sufficient supply, high storage costs, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. But as prices are low, the culling of old hens has accelerated, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate, short - term supply pressure has eased, terminal demand is recovering, and this has promoted a rebound in egg prices. The futures decline has also slowed [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and positions: The egg futures 09 contract rose slightly in a volatile manner, with a position of 257,912 lots, an increase of 27,276 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,627, with little change from the previous week's - 28,851 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 3036 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 440 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 559 yuan/ton [24]. - Futures inter - month spread: The egg 9 - 1 spread was - 7 yuan/500 kg, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of July 17, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.63 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.38 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new - chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [40]. - Culling: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled egg - laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the average culling age of hens was 506 days [44]. - Feed raw materials: As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2870 yuan/ton [48]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 11, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.69 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [55]. - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.9 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.2 yuan/kg [57]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons (7.87%) year - on - year compared with 11,784.06 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared with 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [63].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the layer hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from the newly - opened production of hens supplemented earlier, resulting in sufficient egg supply. High - temperature and high - humidity weather increases egg storage costs, making downstream dealers cautious in purchasing. Egg prices remain low compared to the same period, and the farming sector is in a continuous loss state. However, as prices reach relatively low levels, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. Nationwide high - temperature conditions have led to a decline in the egg - laying rate in some areas, alleviating short - term market supply pressure. With the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the farming sector's expectation of price increases is released, promoting an egg price rebound. The decline of the futures market has also slowed down, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3615 yuan/500 kilograms, up 154 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26222 lots, up 1290 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 5 yuan/500 kilograms, up 5 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract is 238587 lots, up 139084 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, down 24 lots [2] 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.78 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is - 830 yuan/500 kilograms, down 154 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national layer hen inventory index is 110.89 (2015 = 100), down 1.46; the national culled layer hen index is 108.68 (2015 = 100), up 11.92; the average price of layer chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - chick index is 106.78 (2015 = 100), down 31.9; the average price of layer feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged; the layer farming profit is - 0.69 yuan/hen, down 0.11 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 9.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the national average age of culled hens is 506 days, down 4 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.74 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.38 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.08 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, down 0.1 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, down 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7606 tons, down 331 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 5.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.19 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Guangdong, it is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is in a seasonal off - season for demand, with high egg - laying hen存栏量, significant pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and sufficient egg supply. High - temperature and high - humidity weather increases storage costs, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, as prices reach a relatively low level, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing the存栏预期. Near - month futures prices are generally weak, while far - month contracts are more resistant to decline. The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7] - Market review: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 08 contract was 3442 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 140 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8] - Market outlook: The egg market is in a seasonal off - season, with sufficient supply, high storage costs, and cautious purchasing by dealers. Egg prices are low, and the breeding end is in a loss. But the culling of old hens has accelerated, and far - month contracts are more resistant to decline [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 08 contract of egg futures fluctuated and closed down, with a position of 111,067 lots, a decrease of 69,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,851, compared with - 31,955 last week, and the net short position increased significantly [14] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 24 [18] - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was reported at 2596 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 78 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 846 yuan/ton [24] - Futures inter - month spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 32 yuan/500 kilograms, generally at a low level compared to the same period [28] - Related product spot prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.73 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.42 yuan/kg [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national laying hen存栏指数 was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [41] - Culling situation: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the national culling age of hens was 506 days [46] - Feed raw material prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2840 yuan/ton [50] - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.58 yuan/hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.72 yuan/kg [57] - Laying hen chick and culled hen prices: As of July 4, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.9 yuan/bird, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 9.4 yuan/kg [59] - Egg monthly export volume: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [65]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and the downward space of the futures price on the disk is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens. If the volume of culled chickens remains high, the upward space will be relatively large; if the volume of culled chickens fails to maintain, the contracts in August and September may be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas today is 2.58 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main sales areas is 2.79 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The mainstream prices across the country are mostly stable today [6] - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, higher than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in June was 40.75 million, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7] - From June 27th, the national slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 18.41 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. As of June 26th, the average slaughter age of culled chickens was 508 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of June 26th, the sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas across the country was 7,937 tons, a 5% increase from the previous week [8] - As of June 26th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.22 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week [8] - As of June 26th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was -0.41 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty from the previous week. On June 20th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country has decreased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.57 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [8] 2. Trading Logic - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and the downward space of the futures price on the disk is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens [9] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the far-month August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is relatively high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Eggs have entered the seasonal demand off - season, with high egg - laying hen inventory and large pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens. Egg supply is abundant. Affected by the plum rain season, storage costs increase, downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a continuous loss state. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old hen culling has accelerated, reducing the inventory expectation. The near - month futures price is generally weak due to the weak spot, while the far - month contracts are obviously resistant to decline, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 3484 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 39; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 27941 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 5118; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 20 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 18; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands; the futures open interest (active contract) is 150786 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 22760 [2]. 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.55 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28; the basis (spot - futures) is - 931 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 110.89 (2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46; the national culled laying hen index is 108.68 (2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 11.92; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/feather, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1; the national new - born chick index is 106.78 (2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 31.9; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.58 yuan/head, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.17; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 9.4 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month increase of 0.16; the national culled chicken age is 506 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.53 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.35 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.02 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.22 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.18; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.12 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7606 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 331 [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remained unchanged from yesterday; eggs have entered the seasonal demand off - season, with sufficient supply, high storage costs, and cautious downstream purchases [2]. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2].