Group 1 - The egg market is experiencing a "busy season without prosperity," with prices continuously declining, and a significant recovery in prices is not expected in the fourth quarter [1] - As of August 25, the average price of powdered eggs in Handan, Hebei, was 2.7 yuan per jin, while the national average price of eggs was 3.2 yuan per jin, both significantly lower than the same period last year [1] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department reported that the average price of 28 types of vegetables was 4.8 yuan per jin as of August 22, indicating a slight increase but still at a low level compared to previous years, which has weakened the substitute demand for eggs [1] Group 2 - As of July 2025, the number of laying hens was 1.292 billion, a 2% increase month-on-month and a 7% increase year-on-year, with chick sales in July at 45.32 million, a 4% decrease month-on-month but a 2.7% increase year-on-year [2] - The new production capacity in the third quarter corresponds to the chick stocking volumes from March to May, which were significantly higher than in previous years, indicating that the overall capacity remains high [2] - As of August 22, feed prices were 2.68 yuan per jin, with breeding profits at -7 yuan per bird, reflecting a slight decline compared to the previous week but a significant recovery compared to July [2] Group 3 - As of August 22, the number of culling chickens was 16.76 million, a 15.2% increase week-on-week, with the average culling age at 502 days, indicating an accelerated culling pace [3] - The current market price for culling chickens is 5.2 yuan per jin, down 0.4 yuan from the previous week, suggesting that the market is under pressure from excess capacity [3] - The key to changing the current situation lies in the culling rhythm, with the age of culling chickens at a historical low, limiting the potential for further culling [3] Group 4 - The peak egg production period for the batch of chicks stocked from March to May is concentrated in the fourth quarter, despite a decline in new production capacity since June, the levels remain above the 10-year average [5] - The continuous low prices of vegetables this year have weakened the substitute demand for eggs, leading to a supply-demand balance in the fourth quarter [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - side pressure in the egg market is significant. With the in - production egg - laying hen inventory at a high level in the same period over the years and the outflow of cold - stored eggs, the egg price has not risen during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds, and short - selling strategies can be considered [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3383, down 51 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3482, down 30; JD09 closed at 2951, up 31 [3]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 99, down 21; the 05 - 09 spread was 531, down 61; the 09 - 01 spread was - 432, up 82 [3]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.34, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.03; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.22, down 0.02; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.96, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin [3][6]. - **Eliminated Chicken Prices**: The average price of eliminated chickens was 4.72 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [3][9]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2371 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3102 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.59 yuan/jin, unchanged [3]. - **Profits**: The profit per feather of egg - laying hens was 1.77 yuan, up 0.29 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The national mainstream egg prices were temporarily stable, with prices in most regions remaining unchanged and some showing minor fluctuations. Egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with normal sales [6]. - **In - production Egg - laying Hen Inventory**: In July, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The estimated inventory in August, September, October, and November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick Output**: In July, the monthly output of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling**: In the week of August 14, the culling volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of August 14, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply - side pressure is significant, and the in - production inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years. The outflow of cold - stored eggs has put pressure on prices, resulting in falling egg prices during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Consider short - selling at high prices [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Short the near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long the far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [11]. - **Options**: Sell call options [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current egg supply is relatively abundant due to the high inventory of laying hens, the large pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishment, and the continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs. Terminal demand is weak, and the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. The willingness of breeding enterprises to sell at low prices to reduce inventory increases, resulting in the continuous under - performance of the spot market price and the continuous loss of the breeding end. The slow de - capacity in the industry may continue to restrict egg prices during the peak seasons of school openings and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3021 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 12 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54965 hands, a decrease of 12313 hands; the monthly spread between contracts 1 - 5 is - 99 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 21 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 462532 hands, an increase of 28251 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.04 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 21 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27; the national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.2 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.4 yuan; the national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.11 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.84 yuan; the national culling age of hens is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.11 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.85 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.16 days, an increase of 0.13 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7439 tons, a decrease of 166 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared with yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.70 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan [2]

Report Title - Weekly Egg Report: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Egg Prices Weakly Operate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing challenges with demand falling short of expectations, leading to a weak operation of egg prices. Supply-side pressure is evident, and the market is affected by factors such as inventory and consumer sentiment [1][5][10] Summary by Directory First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.04 yuan per catty, with little change from last Friday, while the average price in the main selling areas was 3.39 yuan per catty, showing a slight increase. The price increase in the main producing areas was hindered. The price of culled chickens continued to decline this week [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From August 15 - 21, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 16.76 million, a 16% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 500 days, a 6 - day decrease from the previous week. In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, a 0.016 - billion increase from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The monthly hatching volume of egg chicken chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of August 21, the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,602 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan. As of August 21, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.08 yuan, a 0.18 - yuan increase from the previous week. On August 15, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was 10.46 yuan per bird, a 1.46 - yuan decrease from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of August 21, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,439 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in the production and circulation links showed a mixed trend, with the production - link inventory increasing by 0.1 days to 1.02 days and the circulation - link inventory increasing by 0.13 days to 1.16 days. The vegetable price index slightly rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [16] 5. Trading Strategies - The supply - side pressure is still obvious. If there is no large - scale over - culling in the short term, the short - selling logic can be established. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices, including unilateral short - selling, shorting near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and longing far - month contracts after the Spring Festival, and selling put options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Inventory - Data on the in - laying hen inventory, brooding chicken replenishment, culling situation, and chick hatching volume are presented in charts, but specific updated data in this section are not described in text [21][22][23] 2. Cold - Storage Eggs - Not provided with specific text description 3. Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Data on the culling age of culled chickens and the average price of egg chicken chicks in the main producing areas are presented in charts, but specific updated data in this section are not described in text [26] 4. Spread and Basis - Data on 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc. are presented in charts, but specific updated data in this section are not described in text [29][30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market continued to decline this week. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further increases the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and demand is sluggish. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. However, due to weak spot prices and high - production capacity pressure, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [8]. - The strategy recommendation is to participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price continued to decline this week. The 2510 contract closed at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Supply Situation**: High laying - hen inventory, large pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs increase supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. However, demand is expected to improve with school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 10 - contract of egg futures continued to decline, with a position of 434,281 lots, an increase of 118,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,652, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3057 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 9 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 24 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - Month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 218 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of August 21, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.03 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.89 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%, and the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [40]. - **Laying - Hen Elimination Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%, and the national elimination - hen age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2373.53 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Laying - Hen Chick and Elimination - Hen Prices**: As of August 15, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination hens was 10.94 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month [65].

Core Insights - The event highlighted the high-quality development of the egg chicken industry in Jiyue County, showcasing how the local government has transformed a small-scale industry into a significant economic contributor with an annual output value of 2.3 billion yuan [1][2]. Industry Overview - Jiyue County has a chicken stock of 26 million, producing 400 million kilograms of fresh eggs annually, leading the province in both scale and output value [2]. - The products are distributed not only to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai but also nationwide through a combination of online and offline sales channels [2]. Technological Advancements - The county has implemented financial tools such as "smart breeding loans," providing 45 million yuan in subsidized loans to farmers [3]. - Over 85% of farms have completed smart upgrades, resulting in a 30% increase in production efficiency and a 20 percentage point improvement in egg quality [3]. Food Safety Measures - A robust food safety mechanism has been established, including a vaccination subsidy of 1.64 million yuan for 2024 and annual training for over 2,000 personnel [4]. - Recent inspections showed that all 25 batches of eggs tested were compliant with safety standards [4]. Value Chain Enhancement - The establishment of a deep processing project by Shandong Jiwan Food Technology Co., Ltd. involves an investment of 360 million yuan, capable of processing 500 million fresh eggs annually, generating an output value of 420 million yuan [5]. - The company has adopted a premium branding strategy, leading to higher market prices for its products [5]. Sustainable Practices - Jiyue County has achieved a 93.49% utilization rate of livestock manure through a green development model [6]. - Plans for the next five years include building two modern demonstration farms and increasing comprehensive manure utilization to over 95% [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply - side pressure is significant and demand is average, causing price declines. Cold - storage eggs are hitting the market after a previous price rebound, and the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is advisable to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.39 yuan/jin, also down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is currently stable [6] - In July, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.356 billion, up 0.016 billion from the previous month and 6.1% year - on - year. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, down 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The estimated in - lay hen inventory from August to November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14th, the weekly slaughter volume of layer hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, up 5% from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 1% from the previous week [8] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, down 0.17 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, down 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8th, the expected profit per layer was 11.92 yuan/feather, down 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.89 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9] 2. Trading Logic - Supply - side pressure and average demand lead to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after a price rebound impacts prices. The current spot price increase is disappointing, so it's recommended to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting on price rallies [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [11] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures are continuously squeezing the premium, and the price of the main egg futures contract has broken through the support level and declined. The price of the 2510 contract dropped to 3112 [1][5]. - In the short - term, the spot market is under pressure from loose supply and is in a low - level shock. In the medium - term, the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption season may drive a phased rebound in the spot market in late August and early September, but the rebound high depends on the rhythm of culling hens. Currently, the culling of hens is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is large. In the long - term, if the egg - laying hen breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling of hens is less than expected, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The futures price is in yuan per 500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.54% [2]. Spot Performance - The egg price rebounded slightly over the weekend, but the Hebei spot price declined again today. The egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei is 2.69 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategy - The morning report today indicated that the 2509/2510 contracts entered the short - position profit - taking range. After taking profits on short positions in the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. The 2510 contract still maintains the idea of high - selling in bands. If it effectively breaks below 3150, it is expected to open up further downward space, which has been verified by the market. Currently, pay attention to the support effect at 3100. If the support at 3100 is effectively broken, the support will move down to 3000 - 3050. - The morning report also indicated that if the spot market is expected to strengthen, the 2512 and 2601 contracts may still have some downward space, which has also been verified by the market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Newly laid eggs are continuously increasing, and the limited number of culled chickens results in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices in the peak season are weaker than expected, and funds have created a premium in the futures market. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short - term, the futures market may fluctuate due to the expected rebound of spot prices and the volatility risk from high positions at low levels. In the medium - term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, so the focus should be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices showed mixed trends, with red eggs slightly stronger and pink eggs still weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited due to supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.4 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, while in Guantao it decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. In the sales areas, the price in Huilongguan increased by 0.23 yuan to 3.25 yuan per catty, and in Dongguan it decreased by 0.19 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. Supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium - and small - sized eggs, and large - sized eggs are increasing. Cold - storage eggs are also being sold. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [11][20]. - **Chicken Rearing and Culling**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, as breeding losses increase and seasonal factors come into play, the number of new chicken rearing has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [11][33]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [11]. - **Demand Side**: After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, short - sell the 09, 10, and 11 contracts after a rebound, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months. There is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Domestic egg prices showed mixed trends last week. Red eggs were slightly stronger, and pink eggs were weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited by supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lost momentum. The current basis is still low, the near - month contracts are under pressure, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Previously, more old chickens were culled, and there was over - culling in some areas, causing the price difference between white chickens and culled chickens to decline significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, the culling of chickens has stagnated [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Rearing**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, with increasing breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Culling**: In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, the inventory pressure has eased, and there is a seasonal downward trend. However, the inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market has continued to decline this week, with the 2510 contract closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens from previous supplementary stocking is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather has increased the substitutes for egg consumption, leading to low market demand for eggs. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the near - term contracts, the futures prices generally maintain a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while the long - term contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is to participate in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - The 2510 contract of eggs continued to decline, closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens is large. Cold - storage eggs are continuously released, increasing supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and substitutes for egg consumption are increasing. The spot price is lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a loss state [8]. - With school opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement, demand may pick up, potentially driving up egg prices. Near - term contracts tend to be weak, while long - term contracts are relatively resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is short - term participation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 315,692 lots, an increase of 110,551 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 33,540, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,066 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 180 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 116 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 393 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.74 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Elimination Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national average age of eliminated chickens was 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,020 yuan per ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.31 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Prices of Egg - laying Chicken Chicks and Eliminated Chickens**: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main producing areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated chickens in the main producing areas was 11.34 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, China's total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons or 7.87% year - on - year compared to 11,784.06 tons in the same period of the previous year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared to 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [66]. 3.4. Representative Enterprise - A simple introduction to Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific content mainly shows the change in its price - earnings ratio, and no in - depth analysis is given [68].