1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The papermaking market has a pattern of oversupply and weak rebound. The pulp market has stable imports, a slight increase in domestic pulp production, and high inventory, with weak downstream demand. The double - offset paper market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and its valuation is weakly stable. The copper - plate paper market has a low gross profit margin and a slight increase in inventory. The domestic pulp market has a slight increase in production and a narrow decline in inventory, while the demand side of pulp in various paper products remains weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Pulp: Imports are stable, domestic pulp production increases slightly, inventory is at a relatively high level after a narrow decline (down 2.6% to 2.008 million tons), and downstream demand in areas such as tissue paper and cultural paper is weak, showing an oversupply pattern [4]. - Double - offset paper: The weekly capacity utilization rate slightly decreases (53.4%, - 0.4%), but the production increases slightly (208,000 tons, + 1.0%) due to new sample production lines at the beginning of the month. Demand is weak with sporadic publishing tenders and dull social orders [4]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - Pulp: There is a supply - demand mismatch and high inventory. The supply side has no contraction pressure, and the demand side is weak, so the oversupply pattern continues, and it is more affected by inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand changes [4]. - Double - offset paper: The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The previous profit pressure restricts the upward space of valuation, and it is expected to be weakly stable until demand or supply changes [4]. 3.1.3 Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for SP2601; if port inventory falls below 2 million tons and the basis strengthens, increase long positions. Short OP2601 based on the actual spot transaction price [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the SP11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4]. - Options: Wait and see for SP options; sell OP2601 - C - 4400 for OP options [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Double - offset paper supply: Production increases slightly to 208,000 tons (+ 1.0%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 53.4% (- 0.4%). The profit is under pressure, with an average cost of 4,902 yuan/ton (up 6.4 yuan/ton) and an average weekly profit of - 259.1 yuan/ton [8]. - Double - offset paper inventory: Production enterprise inventory is 1.355 million tons (up 0.9% month - on - month), and the on - site inventory rebounds slightly and is at a multi - year high [12]. - Copper - plate paper supply: Production decreases slightly to 85,000 tons (- 1.2%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 63.1% (- 0.5%), and the gross profit margin is still low [15]. - Copper - plate paper inventory: Production enterprise inventory is 376,000 tons (up 0.8% month - on - month), and the on - site inventory rebounds slightly [20]. - Domestic pulp supply: The production of broad - leaf pulp increases to 250,000 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp remains unchanged at 235,000 tons. The production profit of broad - leaf pulp rebounds slightly [24]. - Wood pulp supply: The port inventory decreases to 2.008 million tons (down 2.6% month - on - month), and the chemimechanical pulp production profit remains stable, but the market is in a stalemate [27]. - Pulp demand - tissue paper: Demand is weak and there is no new increase. The average price of tissue paper remains stable at 5,883 yuan/ton, with a light trading atmosphere and slow inventory reduction [31]. - Pulp demand - white cardboard: Production decreases to 357,000 tons (- 1.11%), capacity utilization rate decreases to 78.98% (- 0.89 percentage points), and the factory inventory decreases to 1.07 million tons (- 0.93%) [34]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Double - offset paper price: The average enterprise price of 70g double - offset paper is stable at 4,642.9 yuan/ton [41]. - Copper - plate paper price: The average enterprise price of 157g copper - plate paper is stable at 4,975 yuan/ton [41]. - Pulp prices: The average spot tax - included price of imported softwood pulp is 5,424 yuan/ton (+ 0.3%); the average price of hardwood pulp is 4,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the average price of kraft pulp is 5,079 yuan/ton (+ 1.6%); the average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic downward pressure in the US is increasing, raising the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are still internal differences within the Fed. Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. - Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner [1]. - The US government shutdown is about to end, risk appetite has increased. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. - The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. - The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. - The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. - The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner due to weak supply - demand drivers [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - According to ADP statistics, from October 1 - 25, the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total loss of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US economic downward pressure increases the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar index has weak upward momentum, and gold is volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. Crude Oil - A Reuters survey of five analysts shows that as of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by about 1.2 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 6 million barrels; US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 1.2 - 4 million barrels. Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the expectation of the end of the US government shutdown has led to three consecutive days of oil price increases. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner. The OPEC and IEA November "Oil Market Monthly Reports" will be released on November 12 and 13 respectively [1]. Silver - The US Senate passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government shutdown. The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the shutdown, and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the Senate - passed temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday. The end of the government shutdown has increased risk appetite. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that in the next step, a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, while continuing to improve the monetary policy framework and strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are both positive for the bond market. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. Hog - According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, up 0.01 point from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from the previous day. The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress was a bit slow and still under pressure, while the slaughter of large - weight hogs by small farmers increased, and the terminal demand was insufficient. The supply exceeded the demand, and the price mainly adjusted weakly. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short - term and will oscillate at the bottom. The breeding side can hedge in a timely manner according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. Soybean Meal - According to Mysteel statistics, on the previous trading day, the total sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous trading day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 125,100 tons, an increase of 39,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the far - month basis sales volume was 189,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 53.51%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous day. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills is slowly recovering, and the crushing volume is at a relatively high level, while the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory limits the upward space of spot prices. The purchasing sentiment of downstream feed enterprises is average, and they mainly replenish inventory based on existing inventory levels. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 3030 - 3090 in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. The implementation of Canada's clean - fuel regulations and local government blending policies has led to a rise in rapeseed oil prices, driving up palm oil prices. Domestically, the basis prices in various regions, especially in South China, have increased rapidly, and the market trading is light, mainly fulfilling previous contracts. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 88,800 tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous week. The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2060 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The domestic weekly methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to resume operation this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous week. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. Short - fiber - The production of Chinese polyester short - fiber this cycle was 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.21%. The average comprehensive production capacity utilization rate during this cycle was 88.37%, a week - on - week increase of 2.74%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber factories on the previous trading day was 41.96%, a decrease of 28.51% from the previous trading day. Supply has increased while demand has remained flat, with a slight inventory build - up this week. After the sales - to - production ratio reached a high, it declined, but the overall inventory pressure is not large. The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49%. The PVC social inventory was 1.0352 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 769 yuan/ton, and the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 465 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 39.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash was 1264 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The weekly production of soda ash was 746,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%. The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. Synthetic Rubber - As of November 11, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 6975 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - polybutadiene rubber of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton. As of November 11, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 237 yuan/ton. Based on the butadiene price, the static cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber was estimated to be 8500 yuan/ton. On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. The raw material side is still under pressure from large domestic supply. On the demand side, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are less than expected. Some enterprises plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. There is a lack of substantial positive factors. The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent urea market prices have shown a weak fluctuation, with futures prices maintaining a low range between 1580 to 1650 yuan per ton, and the average price of small particle urea in China at 1610.60 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.12% compared to the previous period [1] Supply Analysis - Urea supply remains high, with significant inventory levels contributing to a market condition of oversupply, which continues to pressure urea prices [1] - In terms of supply, production facilities in Gansu, Xinjiang, and Shanxi have resumed operations, with daily production fluctuating around 200,000 tons. New production capacity in Xinjiang is expected to come online in mid-November, maintaining daily production above 200,000 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is primarily driven by essential needs, with stable production of compound fertilizers and agricultural reserves gradually replenishing stock. Purchases are made on a need basis, particularly when prices are low [1] - The demand for urea is relatively stable due to ongoing production of compound fertilizers and the replenishment of agricultural reserves across various regions [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain an oversupply condition due to the traditional off-season for agriculture, which may limit the downward adjustment of urea prices despite significant cost pressures on production facilities [1] - Overall, urea prices are anticipated to remain weak and stable, with close attention needed on the progress of new production capacity and changes in raw material costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in oil prices reflect underlying economic signals, with significant price drops indicating potential demand issues and economic concerns [3][4]. Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have experienced volatility since the beginning of the year, with notable fluctuations in April, May, June, and a significant drop in October, culminating in a historic "six consecutive declines" [3]. - As of October 22, 2025, domestic oil prices saw a decrease of nearly 350 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, with further expected reductions of approximately 340 yuan per ton due to international price trends [3][4]. International Oil Prices - WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $56.73 per barrel, while Brent crude is at $60.83, nearing the year's lowest points [4]. - Analysts suggest that a rebound above $58 could lead to prices reaching $60 or even $63, but current global economic recovery is slow, and oil demand remains weak [4]. Domestic Oil Pricing - The national average price for 92-octane gasoline is around 7.05 yuan per liter, with regional variations, such as higher prices in Yunnan and Guizhou at 7.20 yuan per liter [5]. - The price for 95-octane gasoline averages 7.55 yuan per liter, with significant price differences across regions, indicating a "high-octane premium" that affects consumer spending [5]. Economic Implications - While falling oil prices may benefit consumers in the short term, they often signal insufficient market demand and potential economic recession risks [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a possible rebound in oil prices, but the unpredictable nature of the market complicates accurate future predictions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in oil prices is attributed to multiple factors in both international and domestic markets, leading to expected reductions in gasoline and diesel prices in China [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of October 21, the oil price change rate has dropped to -7.93%, with anticipated reductions of 320 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.24 to 0.27 yuan per liter [1]. - Following the price adjustments, the average price of 92-octane gasoline is expected to fall from 7.04 yuan per liter to a range of 6.77 to 6.80 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently experiencing a surplus, with OPEC+ increasing production and major oil-exporting countries maintaining high export levels, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded its forecasts for global oil demand growth, reflecting a more conservative outlook due to anticipated economic slowdowns [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Iran, their impact on oil prices has diminished as market supply has increased, leading to a return to fundamental pricing [5][7]. - The end of the peak oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere has raised concerns about future demand, with expectations of a decline in global oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter [7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is warming, with most products closing higher on October 16, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Polysilicon continues to rise strongly by 3.48%, leading the commodity market, supported by positive policy expectations [1][3]. - Other commodities such as coking coal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and butadiene rubber also saw gains of over 2% to 3% [1][3]. - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1479.17 points, up 0.67%, while the China Commodity Futures Index closed at 2041.35 points, up 0.66% [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - Despite being in a supply surplus situation, the polysilicon market is buoyed by rumors of upcoming regulatory measures to strengthen photovoltaic capacity control, leading to a bullish sentiment [3]. - The market has experienced a four-day consecutive rise, although recent reports suggest that rumors about a polysilicon storage platform may be unfounded, potentially impacting market sentiment [3]. Group 3: LPG Market Insights - LPG has shown signs of stabilization, with a daily increase of 3.07% on October 16, supported by expectations of rising international CP prices and decreasing domestic inventories [4]. - The inventory of liquefied gas at Chinese ports decreased by 8.95 million tons to 3.1804 million tons, indicating a smooth destocking process [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose, with coking coal gaining over 3% and coke over 2%, supported by high iron water production and good spot transaction performance [4]. - However, concerns about steel mill profitability and demand for steel may limit upward momentum in coking coal prices [4]. Group 5: Shipping and Pork Market Trends - The shipping index for Europe fell by 3.64%, leading the market decline, as profit-taking emerged after three days of gains [5]. - The pork market remains under pressure from oversupply, with the new main contract dropping 3.21% and breaking below the 12,000 yuan/ton mark [6]. - Despite some signs of stabilization in pork prices, the overall market sentiment remains weak due to increasing supply and slow capacity reduction [6]. Group 6: Other Commodities - Apple futures saw a decline of nearly 2%, reaching a new low for the month [7].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market has experienced significant volatility in October, with Brent crude futures dropping to a low of $61.5 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling below $58 per barrel, marking a decline of over 5% for the month [1][2] Market Dynamics - Short-term fluctuations in oil prices are heavily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with recent geopolitical developments and trade uncertainties contributing to market instability [2][3] - The global economy is showing signs of weak recovery without entering a recession, and the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are providing some liquidity support to the oil market, but this is insufficient to counteract the bearish fundamentals [1][2] Supply and Demand Factors - The oil market is facing increasing pressure from both supply and demand sides, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production while demand is experiencing seasonal declines, leading to a supply surplus [1][4] - The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza has reduced geopolitical risk support for oil prices, while ongoing uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Venezuela still pose potential risks [3][4] Price Support Levels - Analysts suggest that Brent crude futures are currently in a low range of $60 to $65 per barrel, with a critical support level around $60 per barrel, which corresponds to the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production [4][5] - A potential scenario of a cold winter in Europe combined with renewed conflicts in the Middle East could push Brent crude prices above $72 per barrel [4][5] Future Outlook - The supply side will remain the dominant factor in oil pricing, with OPEC+ maintaining its production increase policy, although actual increments may not meet targets, which could weaken market impacts [5] - The expectation of a supply surplus persists, with Brent crude futures anticipated to fluctuate between $60 and $75 per barrel unless significant geopolitical disruptions occur [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Research Variety: Live Hogs [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - After the National Day holiday, the prices of live hog futures and spot have weakened synchronously. The short - term bearish sentiment remains dominant, and the price of the lh2511 contract of live hog futures is likely to continue a low - level, volatile, and weak trend [15] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On October 9, 2025, the lh2511 contract of live hog futures opened and closed lower, closing at 11,595 points, a 5.88% drop from the previous trading day. The daily trading volume was 50,900 lots, and the open interest was 58,300 lots [2] - **Variety Prices**: All contracts of live hog futures declined. The total open interest of the variety was 258,813 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots from the previous trading day [4] - **Related Quotes**: The daily trading volume of live hog options was 48,658 lots, the total open interest was 67,393 lots (an increase of 5,694 lots), and the total number of exercised options on the day was 503 lots [7] 4.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The basis of live hogs on the previous trading day was - 130 yuan/ton, and today it is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a strengthening basis [8][9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the number of registered warehouse receipts today is 0 lots, with no change from the previous trading day [10] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In September, large - scale enterprises faced significant pressure to sell their hogs, and the market supply exceeded demand. Many enterprises failed to meet their targets, and some postponed sales to October. Based on production cycles and previous piglet stocking, the planned hog sales volume of large - scale enterprises in October increased compared to the actual sales volume in September. The average daily planned sales volume increased month - on - month. The planned hog sales volume of key provincial breeding enterprises in October was 13.3933 million heads, a 5.48% month - on - month increase. The increase in Shanxi was the most significant, exceeding 16% [11] - **Technical Analysis**: All short - term, medium - term, and long - term moving averages of the lh2511 contract of live hog futures are in a bearish arrangement. The closing price today is far below all moving averages, indicating that the bears are currently in control [12]

Core Insights - The average price of eggs in major production areas remains stable or shows a slight decline, indicating a softening market trend [1][2][3] - The futures market reflects a downward trend in egg prices, with a notable drop in the main contract [2][3] - High production capacity and seasonal demand fluctuations are key factors influencing the egg market [3][4] Price Overview - Shandong: 5.73 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Hebei: 6.00 CNY/kg, down 0.40 CNY [1] - Guangdong: 6.67 CNY/kg, down 0.20 CNY [1] - Beijing: 6.20 CNY/kg, down 0.20 CNY [1] - Futures market: Main contract at 2806.00 CNY/500kg, down 2.26% [2] Market Dynamics - Egg production remains high, with a significant number of hens still in production and older hens not being culled [3] - Seasonal demand is expected to weaken post-holiday, leading to a continued oversupply situation [3][4] - The age of hens being culled has decreased but remains above levels seen in previous downturns, suggesting ongoing supply pressures [4]

Group 1 - Since Q4 2021, domestic housing prices have shown a turning point, leading to a shift in market expectations for the real estate sector, with continuous declines in housing transaction data and shrinking terminal demand for PVC, resulting in a downward price trend [1] - Current PVC prices are low, with domestic calcium carbide method PVC losing 750 CNY/ton and ethylene method PVC losing 650 CNY/ton, indicating deep industry losses. However, the production profit from caustic soda is 330 CNY/ton, allowing calcium carbide method PVC enterprises to maintain production [1] - As of September 26, the domestic PVC production enterprise operating rate was 78.97%, up 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, with weekly output at 479,600 tons [1] Group 2 - PVC inventory continues to rise due to high supply, with pre-holiday inventory at 1.328 million tons, a 2.11% increase, marking 13 consecutive weeks of accumulation. Social inventory sample data shows 971,300 tons, a 16.23% year-on-year increase, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1] - The operating rates for domestic pipe and profile industries are around 40%. Real estate investment, new construction area, completed area, and sales area in August showed year-on-year declines of -12.9%, -19.5%, -4.7%, and -17%, respectively, leading to insufficient new orders and a weekly demand of around 450,000 tons for PVC [1] Group 3 - The imposition of anti-dumping duties by India on PVC imports from China has impacted exports, with duties ranging from 122 to 232 USD/ton for five years, although the market had anticipated this, leading to a "rush to export" in July and August [2] - The short-term supply-demand imbalance for PVC is unlikely to change, with ample domestic production capacity and high inventory levels. The downward trend in the real estate sector and the impact of India's anti-dumping duties on exports suggest a continued weak price outlook for PVC [3] - However, there are potential short-term rebound demands for PVC due to historical low prices, cost support, potential supply issues with upstream calcium carbide as winter approaches, and possible policy stimuli towards the end of the year [3]