Core Insights - Copper prices have reached new record highs, driven by the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports [1][4] Group 1: Price Trends - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to increased demand and supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs [1][4] - Record highs in copper prices indicate a significant shift in market dynamics, reflecting broader economic trends [1][4] Group 2: Market Implications - The rise in copper prices may influence various sectors, particularly construction and manufacturing, which rely heavily on copper [1][4] - Investors are closely monitoring these price changes as they could signal potential investment opportunities in related industries [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive stance on gold and copper, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [7][10]. Core Insights - Copper is currently experiencing historical backwardation, with LME copper spot prices surpassing USD 10,000 per ton, driven by inventory depletion and redirection of shipments to the US [2]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban, which is expected to support cobalt prices in the near term [3][4]. - Aluminium output reached a new monthly high in May, supported by strong demand and improved smelter margins [5]. - Central banks are aggressively accumulating gold, with expectations for continued increases in official gold reserves over the next year [6]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper spot prices exceeded USD 10,000/t, with a backwardation of over USD 300/t for 3-month futures [2]. - Year-to-date inventory at LME has decreased by 180,000 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 115,000 tons due to tariff concerns [2]. - Ivanhoe has reduced its 2025 copper production guidance by 28% [2]. Cobalt - DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended by three months, impacting supply and supporting price stability [3]. - Cobalt prices surged over 60% following the initial ban and are expected to remain strong due to continued restrictions [3]. Aluminium - Aluminium production in May rose approximately 5% year-on-year to 3.83 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 4% [5]. - China's aluminium inventory dropped by around 400,000 tons over the past three months, indicating robust downstream demand [5]. Gold - Central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold annually, significantly higher than the average of 400-500 tons in the past decade [6]. - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6]. Market Sentiment - Improved US-China trade talks have positively influenced market sentiment, particularly for base metals [10]. - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the report suggests a preference for gold and copper investments among China materials [10].

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordination and cooperation to achieve these goals [1] - The meeting underscored that advancing Chinese-style modernization requires a focus on the marine economy, aiming to establish a path with Chinese characteristics [1] Group 2 - In June, new car manufacturers reported significant sales figures, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 vehicles, marking a historical high and securing the top position among new forces in car manufacturing [2] - Leap Motor also achieved a record high in new car deliveries for June, reaching 48,006 units, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors followed closely [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments released guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing the importance of increasing residents' financial capacity to stimulate consumption [3] - Analysts noted that rising stock markets can enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend, as increased asset values create a psychological effect of wealth growth [3] Group 4 - China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds by 2025, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, accounting for 42.69% of the annual quota [4] - The issuance plan for the second half of the year has been adjusted to be more intensive, with the first issuance scheduled for July 14 [4] Group 5 - In July, several Hong Kong stocks were favored by brokerages, with companies like Pop Mart, Hong Kong Exchanges, and others receiving multiple recommendations from different firms [5] - The technology and brokerage sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for institutional investors, especially with the upcoming mid-year report season [5] Group 6 - The banking sector has seen a continuous rise, with 36 listed banks in A-shares increasing by over 1%, and Suzhou Bank and Xiamen Bank showing notable gains [8] - Analysts attribute this upward trend to recent shareholder meetings focusing on dividends and strategic transformations, laying a foundation for future stock price increases [8] Group 7 - The international copper price surged, reaching a peak of $9,984, driven by market confidence stemming from the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. and inflation expectations [15] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, predicting a peak of $10,050 in August [15] Group 8 - BYD reported a 33.04% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for the first half of the year, totaling approximately 2.146 million units [21] - New and existing companies are expected to see significant profit growth, with projections indicating increases of 50%-100% for several firms in the upcoming half-year [21]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing Zacks Premium for investors to enhance their stock market strategies and confidence [1] Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores are indicators designed to help investors select stocks with the highest potential to outperform the market within a 30-day timeframe [2] - Stocks are rated from A to F based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, with A being the highest score [2] Value Score - The Value Style Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios such as P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [3] Growth Score - The Growth Style Score assesses a company's future growth potential by analyzing projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [4] Momentum Score - The Momentum Style Score is based on price trends and earnings outlook changes, helping investors identify optimal times to invest in high-momentum stocks [5] VGM Score - The VGM Score combines Value, Growth, and Momentum Scores, providing a comprehensive evaluation of stocks based on their weighted styles [6] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to assist investors in building successful portfolios [7] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically achieved an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [8] Stock Selection Strategy - Investors are encouraged to select stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B to maximize potential success [9] - The direction of earnings estimate revisions is crucial; stocks with lower ranks but high Style Scores may still face downward price pressure [10] Company Spotlight: Southern Copper Corporation - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is engaged in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals across several countries [11] - SCCO holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B, indicating moderate potential [11] - The company is projected to experience a 6% year-over-year earnings growth for the current fiscal year, with positive earnings estimate revisions [12] - SCCO has an average earnings surprise of 3.7%, making it a noteworthy option for growth investors [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for oil prices in the low to mid $60s for the remainder of 2025 and $60 in 2026, despite geopolitical concerns [6][10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have increased due to Israel's attack on Iran, raising the worst-case scenario probability for oil supply disruptions to 17% [3][4]. - The recent spike in oil prices by 5% reflects heightened security risks in the Middle East, with a 7% probability of a worst-case scenario where supply impacts extend beyond Iranian exports [6][10]. - The US aluminum tariffs have created significant uncertainty in the aluminum market, with the US Midwest premium (MWP) currently insufficient to incentivize necessary imports [7][10]. Oil Market Summary - Global oil demand averaged 103.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in June, showing a year-over-year increase of 560 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [10]. - Total liquid inventories surged by 34 million barrels (mb) in the first week of June, with crude oil stocks rising by 27 mb [10]. - An attack on Iran could potentially spike oil prices to $120, impacting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 5% [6]. Aluminum Market Summary - The surprise increase in US aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to a sideways outlook on aluminum prices, with participants at the Harbor Aluminum Summit expressing uncertainty about future demand [7][10]. - The current MWP is around 60 cents per pound, which barely covers the tariff, indicating a need for the MWP to rise if the tariff remains unchanged [10]. - Existing inventory can buffer the market temporarily, but it will deplete quickly, leading to potential price increases if the tariff situation does not change [10]. Metals Activity Summary - China's steel output has slowed sharply, reaching its lowest rate since 2018, with a 5% drop compared to previous months [9]. - The annualized run-rate of steel production in China is at 967 million tons (Mt), suggesting a potential peak in production for 2025 [9].

Market Overview - Recent volatility in the copper market has been significant, with prices initially rising to 79,670 yuan before declining sharply, leading to a critical price point where market divergence has increased [2] - London copper has shown relative resilience, with its decline being less severe than that of Shanghai copper, primarily due to low exchange inventories [2] Macroeconomic Factors - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3%, while the OECD has cut its forecast from 3.3% to 2.9% [2] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been halved from 2.8% to 1.6%, with warnings that the impact of weak economic activity will exceed spending cuts and tax revenue, leading to an expanding budget deficit [2] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of June 16, LME copper inventories decreased by 12,850 tons to 107,600 tons, indicating a tightening market due to previously accumulated stocks being depleted [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories fell by 5,461 tons to 101,900 tons, remaining relatively tight but not showing further depletion [3] - COMEX copper inventories increased by 7,641 tons to 197,400 tons, reflecting ongoing accumulation since March [3] Supply Side Analysis - Negotiations between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have seen a significant drop in processing fees, with the latest import copper concentrate processing fee reported at -44.75 USD/ton, down 1.46 USD from the previous week [5] - Kamoa-Kakula's copper production guidance has been reduced by 28% from earlier estimates, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] - The market for recycled copper remains tight, with both domestic and imported supplies under pressure [5] Demand Side Analysis - Demand from the cable and automotive sectors remains stable, with some recovery noted in cable production due to promotional activities [6] - The automotive sector, particularly for new energy vehicles, continues to show steady growth, while traditional vehicle production is also accelerating [6] - The air conditioning sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, leading to a decrease in copper demand in this area [6] Conclusion - The overall supply-demand structure for copper appears stable, with tariffs and macroeconomic conditions significantly influencing copper prices, which are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels with increased volatility [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may present a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,719 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,306 lots, down 1,812 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is - 3,406 lots, down 6,378 lots. The LME copper inventory is 132,400 tons, down 5,600 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 107,404 tons, up 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 67,800 tons, down 10,000 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 34,242 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 70 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 69.84 dollars/ton, down 23.31 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 43.29 dollars/kiloton, up 0.27 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,170 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,870 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,540 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.1 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 2772.957 billion yuan, up 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167 million pieces, down 30,199.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.04%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3%, down 0.06%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.58%, up 0.0117%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.94, up 0.1413 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rates and bank regulations. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. US employment growth slowed in May, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US imports decreased in April. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still in the contraction range [2]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated strongly, with reduced open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the US, employment growth slowed, which may give the Fed room to postpone interest rate cuts. In China, infrastructure investment has been improving, but the momentum for expanding effective investment needs to be fully released. The processing fee of copper concentrates remains low, and the international supply of concentrates is tight. Although the domestic port inventory has decreased, it is still sufficient, and the import of scrap copper is expected to increase. The domestic import window has opened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the spot market trading sentiment has weakened, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. The option market sentiment is gradually balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].

Company Overview - Koryx Copper Inc. is a Canadian copper development company focused on the Haib Copper Project in Namibia and has a portfolio of copper exploration licenses in Zambia [2] - The Haib Copper Project is a large, advanced copper/molybdenum porphyry deposit with a long history of exploration and development by multiple operators [2] Project Details - The Haib project has a current mineral resource of 414 million tonnes (Mt) at 0.35% copper (Cu) for 1,459 million tonnes of contained copper in the Indicated category, and 345 Mt at 0.33% Cu for 1,136 million tonnes of contained copper in the Inferred category [3] - The mineralization at Haib is typical of a porphyry copper deposit, characterized by dominant chalcopyrite with minor bornite and chalcocite [4] Future Prospects - Additional studies are being conducted to demonstrate Haib as a future long-life, low-cost, low-risk open pit, sulphide flotation copper project, with potential for additional copper production from heap leaching [3] - Further details regarding the Haib Copper Project can be found in the "NI 43-101 Technical Report – August 2024 Mineral Resource Estimate for the Haib Copper Project, Namibia" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest that the supply of Shanghai copper may increase slightly while the demand remains relatively stable. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,130 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,628 dollars/ton, up 63 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai copper is 174,757 lots, up 5,295 lots. The LME copper inventory is 154,300 tons, down 7,850 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,485 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,525 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 44.97 dollars/ton, up 4.89 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper concentrate TC index is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.47%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.49%, down 0.20%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.03%, down 0.0002; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.82, down 0.0064 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed meeting minutes show that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. The Politburo member and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasizes building a good platform economy ecosystem. From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises is 26.2755 trillion yuan, and the total profit is 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply for domestic smelters will remain stable in the short term. The overall supply of copper may increase steadily, while the demand from some downstream copper product processing enterprises is weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The recent convergence of the spot premium and downstream operations such as low - price replenishment and pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking support the copper price [2].