1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may present a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,719 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,306 lots, down 1,812 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is - 3,406 lots, down 6,378 lots. The LME copper inventory is 132,400 tons, down 5,600 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 107,404 tons, up 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 67,800 tons, down 10,000 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 34,242 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 70 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 69.84 dollars/ton, down 23.31 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 43.29 dollars/kiloton, up 0.27 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,170 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,870 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,540 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.1 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 2772.957 billion yuan, up 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167 million pieces, down 30,199.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.04%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3%, down 0.06%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.58%, up 0.0117%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.94, up 0.1413 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rates and bank regulations. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. US employment growth slowed in May, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US imports decreased in April. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still in the contraction range [2]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated strongly, with reduced open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the US, employment growth slowed, which may give the Fed room to postpone interest rate cuts. In China, infrastructure investment has been improving, but the momentum for expanding effective investment needs to be fully released. The processing fee of copper concentrates remains low, and the international supply of concentrates is tight. Although the domestic port inventory has decreased, it is still sufficient, and the import of scrap copper is expected to increase. The domestic import window has opened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the spot market trading sentiment has weakened, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. The option market sentiment is gradually balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on cement, copper, and incrementally positive on steel and aluminium, while holding a negative view on coal and lithium [1][9]. Core Insights - Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed, reflecting mark-to-market price changes for 1H25, with target price changes ranging from -13% to +12% [1][9]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for hog pricing/margin in 2H25E due to improved supply discipline [1][9]. Summary by Sector Steel - Earnings forecasts for Baosteel and Angang have been revised up by 1-4% for 2025E, while the loss-making forecast for Maanshan has been cut by 11% [10]. - Maintain Buy on Baosteel with a new target price of Rmb8.8/sh [10]. Coal - The thermal coal market is expected to remain balanced in 2025E, with a decline in demand driven by renewable energy expansion [11]. - Earnings forecasts for Shenhua, Chinacoal, and Yankuang have been cut by 2-11% for 2025E and 10-27% for 2026-27E [12]. Cement - Unit gross profit forecasts for cement have been revised down by Rmb2-6/t for 2025E, but a positive view is maintained for 2H25E due to supply discipline [13]. - Earnings estimates for CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, and CRBMT have been cut by 6% to 18% for 2025E [14]. Aluminum - Earnings estimates for Hongqiao have been revised up by 5-27% for 2025-27E, reflecting higher industry spread forecasts [17]. - Maintain Neutral on Hongqiao with a target price of HK$12.5/sh [17]. Copper - The benchmark copper price forecast has been revised to an average of US$4.20/lb in 2025E and US$4.61/lb in 2026E [18]. - Earnings estimates for CMOC-H/A, JXC-H/A, and MMG have been cut by 1-18% for 2025-26E [18]. Lithium - Earnings estimates for Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yongxing have been cut by 3-4% for 2025E due to lower lithium prices [20]. - Yongxing's 2027E earnings have been cut by 37% based on flat lithium price forecasts [20]. Paper - Earnings forecasts for ND Paper have been revised up by 3-4%, while Sunpaper's earnings have been cut by 3% [22].

Company Overview - Koryx Copper Inc. is a Canadian copper development company focused on the Haib Copper Project in Namibia and has a portfolio of copper exploration licenses in Zambia [2] - The Haib Copper Project is a large, advanced copper/molybdenum porphyry deposit with a long history of exploration and development by multiple operators [2] Project Details - The Haib project has a current mineral resource of 414 million tonnes (Mt) at 0.35% copper (Cu) for 1,459 million tonnes of contained copper in the Indicated category, and 345 Mt at 0.33% Cu for 1,136 million tonnes of contained copper in the Inferred category [3] - The mineralization at Haib is typical of a porphyry copper deposit, characterized by dominant chalcopyrite with minor bornite and chalcocite [4] Future Prospects - Additional studies are being conducted to demonstrate Haib as a future long-life, low-cost, low-risk open pit, sulphide flotation copper project, with potential for additional copper production from heap leaching [3] - Further details regarding the Haib Copper Project can be found in the "NI 43-101 Technical Report – August 2024 Mineral Resource Estimate for the Haib Copper Project, Namibia" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest that the supply of Shanghai copper may increase slightly while the demand remains relatively stable. The option market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,130 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,628 dollars/ton, up 63 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai copper is 174,757 lots, up 5,295 lots. The LME copper inventory is 154,300 tons, down 7,850 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 98,671 tons, down 9,471 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,485 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,525 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 44.97 dollars/ton, up 4.89 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper concentrate TC index is - 44.28 dollars/kiloton, down 1.23 dollars. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.47%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.49%, down 0.20%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.03%, down 0.0002; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 0.82, down 0.0064 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed meeting minutes show that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. The Politburo member and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasizes building a good platform economy ecosystem. From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises is 26.2755 trillion yuan, and the total profit is 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material supply for domestic smelters will remain stable in the short term. The overall supply of copper may increase steadily, while the demand from some downstream copper product processing enterprises is weakening, leading to a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The recent convergence of the spot premium and downstream operations such as low - price replenishment and pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking support the copper price [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Internationally, the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with both sides canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending the implementation of 24% of tariffs, and China suspending or canceling non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will help foreign trade enterprises. Fundamentally, the copper import TC spot index continues to decline, and the supply of copper concentrate remains tight. The overall supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. Demand may weaken as downstream consumption approaches the off - peak season, and the inventory reduction rate is slowing down. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars emerging above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to hold a light position with a slightly bullish view on the volatile market, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,556.50 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 181,940 lots, down 5,790 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures are 10,832 lots, up 5,188 lots. The LME copper inventory is 190,750 tons, down 1,025 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 80,705 tons, down 8,602 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 29,157 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,275 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,505 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 115 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 99 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 185 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 23.87 US dollars/ton, down 25.32 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.39 million tons, up 21.10 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,760 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,460 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the South is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it is 750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 124.80 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, down 32,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,190 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 212.52 million tons, down 14.76 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 19,904.17 billion yuan, up 9,184.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,197,199,900 pieces, down 80,202,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.87%, down 7.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.22%, down 0.41 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 14.67%, down 0.0070 percentage points; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.86, up 0.0523 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials are cautious about interest - rate actions due to policy uncertainties. Goldman Sachs adjusts the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raises the Q4 2025 US economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowers the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%, while also lowering the core PCE inflation forecast. In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with significant growth in new - energy vehicle production and sales. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks led to both sides modifying tariff policies, and China will suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. The Ministry of Commerce will support foreign trade enterprises [2]

Core Points - Amerigo Resources Ltd. held its 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on May 5, 2025, where all items of business were approved by shareholders [1][2] - A total of 68,548,449 common shares were voted, representing 41.70% of the total outstanding shares [2] - The election results for the director nominees showed high approval rates, with Klaus Zeitler receiving 97.28% of votes in favor and Robert Gayton receiving 99.09% [2] Company Overview - Amerigo Resources Ltd. is an innovative copper producer with a long-term partnership with Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile (Codelco), the largest copper producer globally [3] - The company produces copper concentrate and molybdenum concentrate as a by-product at its MVC operation in Chile, processing tailings from Codelco's El Teniente mine, which is the largest underground copper mine in the world [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the copper industry, focusing on the impact of tariffs, market dynamics, and supply-demand factors affecting copper prices [2][3][4][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Copper Prices**: The potential imposition of a 25% tariff on copper by the U.S. is expected to significantly alter global copper supply dynamics. If implemented, it could lead to a supply shortage outside the U.S. and a potential price increase [2][3][4]. - **Current Price Dynamics**: The current price of copper is influenced by both domestic and international factors, with PRT Company prices exceeding LME prices by approximately $1,500. The market has already priced in about 15% of the potential tariffs [2]. - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: A projected global copper supply surplus of less than 100,000 tons in 2025 indicates potential supply tightness, especially if tariffs are enacted. The U.S. may import an additional 200,000 tons of copper, leading to a 300,000-ton shortfall outside the U.S. [2][3]. - **Japanese Economic Influence**: Japan's interest rate hikes, aimed at combating inflation, are seen as a positive indicator for copper demand, potentially supporting prices if the dollar weakens [7]. - **Mining and Recycling Challenges**: The copper mining sector is expected to face a contraction in output, with tight supply conditions anticipated in the recycling segment. The actual production may fall short of forecasts due to declining ore grades and geopolitical issues [8][9]. - **Domestic Demand Drivers**: Significant domestic demand is expected from investments in power grids and policies promoting the replacement of old appliances. Investment growth in these areas could exceed 20% [12][13]. - **Global Infrastructure Demand**: Both global and domestic infrastructure projects are anticipated to drive copper demand beyond expectations, with the industry poised for a new trading opportunity [17]. - **Market Sentiment and Inventory Trends**: Current market sentiment reflects a cautious optimism, with companies actively replenishing inventories despite potential short-term demand shocks due to tariffs [15][16]. Other Important Considerations - **Recycling Market Concerns**: The domestic recycling market faces challenges due to potential regulatory changes and reduced imports of scrap copper from the U.S., which could exacerbate supply pressures [9]. - **Profitability of Smelting Operations**: Current processing fees (TCRC) are at levels that may not support profitability for many smelting operations, indicating significant cost pressures within the industry [10][11]. - **Long-term Investment Outlook**: Despite short-term volatility, leading companies in the copper sector are viewed as having long-term investment value due to their ability to withstand market fluctuations and capitalize on future demand growth [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the copper industry, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, supply-demand dynamics, and market sentiment.

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets are experiencing a broad-based rebound, with optimistic outlooks from various institutions regarding future performance [2][8]. Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw a recovery, with major indices turning positive; the Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 2% at one point [2][4]. - A-shares closed with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.15%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.07%, and ChiNext Index up 0.01% [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.72%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.92%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.27% [4]. Sector Highlights - Cyclical stocks, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, showed strong performance, with copper stocks leading the gains [4]. - Companies like Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum saw significant increases in their stock prices, driven by expectations of a long-term bull market in copper due to rising electrification demand [4]. Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance released a report indicating that fiscal policy in 2025 will be more proactive, focusing on increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and government bond issuance [5][6]. - Key areas of focus include optimizing expenditure structure, enhancing local financial support, and promoting domestic demand and consumption [5][6]. Future Outlook - Institutions like Huatai Securities maintain a positive outlook on Chinese assets, citing strong earnings from major tech companies and the potential for AI-driven investments to boost domestic demand [8]. - The report suggests that the market may see a rebalancing of styles, focusing on stable earnings and free cash flow, while technology remains a key theme [9]. - Concerns about increased volatility during the earnings season are noted, with a potential shift from valuation-driven to fundamentals-based pricing [9].

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the copper industry, focusing on supply dynamics, production challenges, and market trends related to copper and its derivatives [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Maintenance on Copper Prices** - The early maintenance and production cuts by Tongling Nonferrous Metals have a minimal short-term impact on copper prices and related sectors. Maintenance typically occurs in Q2, with a larger scale expected in April [2]. 2. **Reasons for No Production Cuts Despite Losses** - Smelters are not reducing production despite losses due to several factors: - Current spot market TC prices are at -15 to -16 USD per pound, leading to losses exceeding 2,000 RMB per ton. - Long-term market prices are around 20 USD per pound, allowing for some profit despite negative margins. - Byproducts like sulfuric acid contribute approximately 1,000 RMB profit, and improved recovery rates enhance profitability [3]. 3. **Record High Electrolytic Copper Production** - Domestic electrolytic copper production reached record highs due to: - An increase of about 500,000 tons in global new mine supply in 2024. - Support from imported scrap copper and high inventory levels. - Full-capacity production leading to economies of scale [5]. 4. **Future Supply Tightness** - Supply tightness is expected to manifest in both mining and raw material sectors: - Limited new global mine supply and declining port inventories will tighten supply. - Domestic scrap copper supply is expected to see slight increases but remains constrained overall [6]. 5. **Policy Impact on Scrap Copper Production** - The cancellation of subsidies for recycled copper and aluminum enterprises led to a significant drop in scrap copper production from June to September 2024, but production rebounded in Q4 [7]. 6. **Trends in Scrap Copper Market Growth** - The growth rate of scrap copper production in China was significantly impacted by the pandemic in 2022, with a recovery of nearly 20% in 2023. Future growth is expected to stabilize at 1.5% to 2% [8]. 7. **Effects of Reverse Invoicing Policy** - The reverse invoicing policy has increased procurement costs for small and medium enterprises, leading to a widening price gap between compliant and non-compliant scrap copper [9]. 8. **Challenges in Importing Scrap Copper** - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported scrap copper, significantly raising costs and affecting China's imports, which currently account for about 20% of total imports [10]. 9. **Global Supply Pressure in 2025** - Global supply of scrap copper and minerals is expected to face significant pressure due to limited import growth and constrained new mine supply, particularly from South America [11]. 10. **Overcapacity in Smelting** - Global smelting capacity is expanding faster than ore supply, leading to potential overcapacity issues. Domestic smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1 million to 1.1 million tons in 2025 [12]. 11. **Stable Demand Drivers** - Demand remains stable with growth in domestic power grid construction, home appliances, and electric vehicles, offsetting declines in the real estate sector. Overall demand in China is projected to grow by 2% to 3% [13][14]. 12. **Investment Recommendations** - Investment focus is recommended on companies with lower competition and higher elasticity, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, as well as Minmetals Resources in Hong Kong, which is expected to have significant growth in 2025 [15].