新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 现货成交一般，多晶硅盘面回调 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-20，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8500元/吨，最后收于8565元/吨，较前一日结算变化（75） 元/吨，变化（0.88）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓114236手，2025-10-20仓单总数为49303手，较前一日变化-811 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9400（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 海关数据显示，出口方面：2025年9月工业硅出口量在7.02万吨，环比减少8%同比增加8%。2025年1-9月份工业硅 累计出口量在56.16万吨，同比增加2%。进口方面：2025年9月中国金属硅进口量在0.19万吨。2025年1-9月累计进 口量在0.86万吨，同比减少64%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价111 ...

Core Insights - Dao's Technology experienced a stock price increase of 1.01% on October 20, with a trading volume of 1.05 billion yuan [1] - The company reported a net profit growth of 182.45% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, despite a slight revenue decline of 1.79% [2] Financing and Trading Activity - On October 20, Dao's Technology had a financing buy amount of 126 million yuan and a financing repayment of 125 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of 487,500 yuan [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for Dao's Technology reached 1.777 billion yuan, with financing balance accounting for 9.83% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level of financing activity [1] - The company had a securities lending repayment of 135,600 shares and a securities lending sell of 2,400 shares on the same day, with a remaining securities lending balance of 125,610 yuan, which is below the 20th percentile level over the past year [1] Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Dao's Technology had 84,500 shareholders, an increase of 13.97% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 12.26% to 8,137 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 678 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 385 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third largest, holding 10.1768 million shares, an increase of 3.0757 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring plan of Shanshan Group faces unexpected challenges as a Zhejiang company, Saimai Ke, has filed a lawsuit to invalidate the restructuring investment agreement, delaying the creditor meeting and the vote on the restructuring plan [1]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Saimai Ke Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. has filed a lawsuit against multiple parties involved in the restructuring investment agreement, claiming that it was wrongfully excluded from the agreement despite being part of a successful consortium [3]. - The lawsuit was filed on October 15, 2025, in the Ningbo Yinzhou District People's Court, seeking confirmation of the invalidity of the contract [3]. Group 2: Investment and Business Context - Shanshan Group's restructuring involves significant players, including Jiangsu New Yangzi Trade and Jiangsu New Yangzi Ship Investment, with Saimai Ke claiming that its exclusion undermines the initial selection process based on industry synergy [4][5]. - Shanshan Co., Ltd. is a leading supplier in the new energy materials and high-end display materials sectors, with a strong focus on lithium battery anode materials and polarizers [6]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Shanshan Co., Ltd. reported explosive growth in the first half of the year, achieving revenue of 9.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, and a net profit of 207 million yuan, up 1079.59% [6]. - The restructuring investment agreement allows Jiangsu New Yangzi Trade to control a company valued at 30 billion yuan with a minimum investment of approximately 1 billion yuan, highlighting the financial leverage involved [6][7].

Macro Strategy - The GDP growth rate remains resilient, with an expectation to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [1][22] - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2% [22] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [22] - External demand outperformed expectations with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while internal demand continued to face pressure [22] Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains strong amid ongoing Sino-US trade tensions, but short-term participation is advised with caution [3] - The yield curve has steepened since the "anti-involution" policy was introduced in July 2025, with the 10-1Y spread at 38 basis points, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The recommendation is to shift positions from 30Y to 10Y bonds to mitigate duration risk while maintaining a balanced approach [3] Company Analysis Fuyao Glass (600660) - The Q3 performance met expectations, with adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] - The revised net profit estimates are 97.10 billion, 111.11 billion, and 131.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.72, 4.26, and 5.05 yuan [7] Chuangfeng Power (603129) - The company reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 11% in Q3, driven by strong demand for all-terrain vehicles [8] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 18.7 billion, 24.7 billion, and 27.4 billion yuan respectively [8] Sien Electric (002028) - The company exceeded market expectations with a Q3 revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.99 billion yuan, up 49% [9] - The international market's high demand is expected to continue driving profitability [9] Longjin Environmental Protection (600388) - The company reported a 20.5% year-on-year increase in performance for the first three quarters, with significant contributions from green electricity and energy storage [20][21] Hikvision (002415) - The company achieved a net profit of 93.19 billion yuan in Q3, a 14.94% year-on-year increase, with a focus on AI and overseas growth [16][17] Hanwujing (688256) - The company reported a Q3 revenue growth of 1333%, with a net profit of 16.05 billion yuan [18] - The product ecosystem is expanding, supporting various AI applications across multiple industries [18]

Core Viewpoint - Fengyuan Co., Ltd. has signed a cooperation framework agreement with Chunan New Energy, committing to supply 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials over the next three years [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Fengyuan Co., Ltd.'s wholly-owned subsidiary, Shandong Fengyuan Lithium Energy Technology Co., Ltd., will be the supplier of lithium iron phosphate materials [1] - The agreement aims to establish a stable, trustworthy, and mutually beneficial partnership between Fengyuan Lithium Energy and Chunan New Energy [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The collaboration is expected to promote rapid development in the new energy materials sector through deep cooperation, resource sharing, and complementary advantages [1] - The focus on lithium iron phosphate materials aligns with the growing demand in the new energy industry, particularly in battery production [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fengyuan Co., Ltd. has signed a cooperation framework agreement with Chunan New Energy, committing to supply 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials over the next three years [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement involves Fengyuan Lithium Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fengyuan Co., Ltd., and three companies under Chunan New Energy [1] - The partnership aims to establish a stable, trustworthy, and mutually beneficial relationship for the procurement and product iteration of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Both parties intend to achieve resource sharing and complementary advantages through deep cooperation [1] - The collaboration is expected to accelerate development in the new energy materials sector for both companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fengyuan Co., Ltd. has signed a cooperation framework agreement with Chunan New Energy companies to supply 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials over the next three years, aiming for resource sharing and mutual benefits in the new energy materials sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Fengyuan Co., Ltd. is expanding its operations in the new energy materials sector through a strategic partnership with Chunan New Energy [1] - The agreement emphasizes the supply of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, indicating a focus on enhancing production capabilities and market presence [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The collaboration is expected to drive rapid development in the new energy materials field, highlighting the growing demand for lithium iron phosphate in energy storage and electric vehicle applications [1] - The partnership reflects a trend in the industry towards cooperation for resource optimization and technological advancement [1]

丰元股份公告，全资子公司丰元锂能与武汉楚能新能源有限公司、孝感楚能新能源创新科技有限公司、 宜昌楚能新能源创新科技有限公司签订了《磷酸铁锂合作框架协议》。根据协议，在未来三年内，丰元 锂能将向楚能新能源供应磷酸铁锂正极材料产品10万吨。此举旨在构建稳定、互信、共赢的合作伙伴关 系，共同推动双方在新能源材料领域的快速发展。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating international oil prices and the recent decline in methionine prices, while lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have increased [2] - Key investment suggestions for October include focusing on Q3 earnings reports, undervalued leading companies in the industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][11] - The long-term investment themes include sustained high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of October 17, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 24.76, at the 73.39 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.16, at the 49.29 percentile historically [2][11] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 11.53, at the 24.01 percentile historically, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.14, at the 19.57 percentile historically [2][11] - The report notes significant impacts from tariff policies and oil price volatility on the industry this year [2][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong earnings elasticity and high-growth sub-industries, particularly in 2025 as policies are expected to support demand recovery [2][11] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the electronic materials and new energy sectors [2][11] Price Trends - In the week of October 13-19, 17 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 52 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable [9][33] - The report identifies significant price movements, with sulfuric acid, vinyl acetate, and propylene oxide showing notable increases, while WTI crude oil and acetone saw the largest declines [9][33]

Core Viewpoint - The leading company in new energy materials, Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), has reported significant growth in its performance due to industrial integration and a rebound in cobalt prices, achieving record highs in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt achieved revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.57%, and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% [2][3]. - The company's revenue and net profit have both reached historical highs for the same period [3]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2020 to 2024 is over 30% and 37.4%, respectively [3][4]. Stock Performance - As of October 17, 2025, Huayou Cobalt's stock price has surged by 113.63% since the beginning of the year, with a total market capitalization of 116.7 billion yuan [2][4]. Business Model and Strategy - Huayou Cobalt has transitioned from a cobalt product supplier to a comprehensive service provider in the new energy materials sector, establishing a complete industrial chain from nickel-cobalt-lithium resource development to lithium battery material manufacturing [3][4]. - The company's integrated model enhances resource security and reduces costs through synergies across the industrial chain [4]. Research and Development - The company has invested heavily in R&D, with total expenditures reaching 6.173 billion yuan from 2020 to the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - In the first half of 2025, Huayou Cobalt completed 115 patent applications and received 42 patent grants, with a total of 1,488 patent applications and 604 granted patents to date [6]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huayou Cobalt's shipments of ternary cathode materials reached 39,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.68%, with high-nickel 9-series products accounting for over 60% of the total [4]. - The company has signed significant long-term supply contracts with LG Energy Solution, committing to supply a total of 164,000 tons of key lithium battery materials from 2026 to 2030 [5][6].