证券之星消息，2月13日新疆国企改革板块较上一交易日下跌1.13%，宝地矿业领跌。当日上证指数报 收于4082.07，下跌1.26%。深证成指报收于14100.19，下跌1.28%。新疆国企改革板块个股涨跌见下 表： 从资金流向上来看，当日新疆国企改革板块主力资金净流出8414.67万元，游资资金净流入3312.71万 元，散户资金净流入5101.96万元。新疆国企改革板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on the last trading day of the Year of the Snake, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.72% or 465.42 points, closing at 26,567.12 points, and a total trading volume of 257.58 billion HKD [1] - The recent pullback in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to weak fundamentals, concerns over tightening liquidity, and a decrease in the attractiveness of the market's unique structure [1] - The overall credit cycle is showing signs of weakness, limiting the market index's potential, with the Hang Seng Index's benchmark level estimated between 28,000 and 29,000 points [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Zijin Mining (02899) led the blue-chip decline, dropping 7.64% to 41.58 HKD, contributing a loss of 33.26 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Haidilao (06862) rising by 3.13% to 17.15 HKD, and Lenovo Group (00992) increasing by 2.89% to 9.26 HKD [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks continued to decline, with Alibaba-W falling over 2% and Tencent Holdings dropping nearly 1% [3] - Domestic large model stocks saw gains, with Zhiyun (02513) increasing by 20.65% to 485 HKD and MiniMax-WP (00100) rising by 15.65% to 680 HKD [3] Commodity Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a broad decline, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) down 5.27% to 14.91 HKD and Zijin Mining (02899) down 4.98% to 42.78 HKD [5] - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which impacted commodity prices [5] AI and Technology Developments - The release of several domestic AI models has been frequent, with significant advancements in capabilities, such as DeepSeek's new model and ByteDance's Seedance 2.0, which aims to lower video creation costs [4] - The RoboX industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with strong policy support expected to drive market penetration and unlock significant market potential by 2026-2027 [7] Company-Specific Highlights - Health Road (02587) saw a strong performance, rising 13.87% to 5.09 HKD, with projected revenue for 2025 expected to exceed 1.5 billion RMB, marking a growth of at least 25% [8] - MicroPort Robotics-B (02252) reported a strong performance with a rise of 11.71% to 29 HKD, as its core product orders surpassed 200 units globally [9] - China High Precision (00591) faced a significant decline of 25% to 0.27 HKD, with expected profit reductions attributed to project delays in the automation sector [10]

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 1.72% [1] - The Tech Index fell by 0.9% [1] Company-Specific Movements - Tencent Music (01698.HK) experienced a decline of over 9% [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) dropped by more than 7% [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both fell by over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tibet Mining (000762) has clarified market rumors and responded to project progress, which may positively impact short-term stock price sentiment [1] Group 1: Company Announcements - On February 9, 2026, the company stated it is not involved in the equity transfer of the Tinggong Copper Mine and clarified that Nimu Copper Industry is a subsidiary of the controlling shareholder, not related to direct acquisition matters [1] - On February 10, 2026, Tibet Mining confirmed its commitment to advancing the Zabuye Salt Lake Phase II project as planned, aiming for capacity release, with specific production details to be provided in regular reports [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock price of Tibet Mining showed a fluctuating upward trend over the past 7 days (February 9 to 13, 2026), with a cumulative increase of 5.29%, outperforming the market (Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% in the same period) [2] - Specific stock prices during this period include: February 9 at 26.14 yuan (up 0.97%), February 10 at 25.87 yuan (down 1.03%), February 11 at 26.44 yuan (up 2.20%), February 12 at 27.13 yuan (up 2.61%), and February 13 at 27.26 yuan (up 0.48%) [2] - On February 11, there was a net inflow of 24.53 million yuan in main funds, but on February 12, it turned into a net outflow of 25.86 million yuan, indicating short-term capital divergence [2] - The current stock price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 30.84 yuan, indicating significant short-term resistance, while the MACD indicator remains in the negative zone but is slightly narrowing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its strategic position in the lithium resource sector, particularly in Sichuan, which is a key lithium resource base in China, holding over 5 million tons of proven spodumene reserves, accounting for more than 80% of the national total and ranking first in Asia [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company's significant subsidiary, Jinxin Mining, has identified lithium oxide reserves of 112.07 thousand tons at the lithium spodumene mine in Dangba, Sichuan, making it the first lithium resource in Sichuan to exceed one million tons [1] - The Dangba lithium deposit is noted as the largest proven granite pegmatite lithium deposit in Asia [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Sichuan is highlighted as the most important lithium resource base in China, reinforcing the company's strategic advantage in the domestic lithium market [1] - The company aims to enhance its domestic layout by leveraging Sichuan's lithium resources, which will solidify its industrial development foundation and contribute to national supply chain security [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jinchengxin (603979) plans to acquire an additional 42.50% stake in Colombia's CMH for a total price of $128 million, which will increase its ownership in CMH from 55% to 97.5%, thereby gaining full control over the San Matias project Alacran copper-gold-silver deposit [1] - The mining rights of the San Matias project are valued at $222 million, but currently, it has not generated any revenue [1] Group 2 - In the past 7 days (as of February 13, 2026), Jinchengxin's stock price has shown significant volatility, closing at 75.70 yuan on February 11, with a single-day increase of 4.27% and a trading volume of 601 million yuan; however, there was a net outflow of 10.62 million yuan from main funds [2] - The stock price slightly increased by 0.24% to 75.88 yuan on February 12, with a cumulative increase of 4.92% over the past 5 days, reaching a peak price of 76.98 yuan on February 11 [2] - Institutional research indicates that Jinchengxin has received ratings from 5 institutions in the last 90 days, with 4 recommending "buy" and 1 "hold," suggesting a target price of 91.38 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 13.39% from the current stock price [3] - Long-term prospects for the mining industry are expected to improve due to the release of global metal demand and the acceleration of Chinese enterprises going abroad, with companies possessing resource and capital advantages becoming more competitive [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is actively seeking to secure rare earth resources from Namibia to reduce its dependency on China for these critical materials [1] Group 1: Japan's Engagement with Namibia - Japan is in discussions with Namibia regarding the acquisition of rare earth resources [1] - Meetings between Japanese and Namibian officials took place during the African Mining Investment Conference in Cape Town [1] - Japanese officials indicated plans to advance specific research to ensure benefits for Japanese companies [1] Group 2: Discovery of Rare Earth Deposits - The Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) has discovered significant heavy rare earth deposits in Namibia [1] - Japan is eager to eliminate its reliance on China for rare earth elements [1] Group 3: Recent Developments in Rare Earth Exploration - On February 2, Japan's Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology announced the successful collection of rare earth-containing mud from the seabed at a depth of approximately 5,600 meters near Minami-Torishima [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. The demand for iron ore has improved, but the supply has shrunk in the short term. However, the sustainability of the improvement is questionable, and the actual situation is relatively weak and stable. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. During the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of finished steel and the shipping of mines [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,946.32, with a week - on - week decrease of 194.39, a month - on - month decrease of 75.94, and a year - on - year increase of 2,012.01 [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 10,703.93, with a week - on - week increase of 387.29, a month - on - month increase of 735.34, and a year - on - year decrease of 142.39 [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,361.30, with a week - on - week decrease of 123.40, a month - on - month decrease of 168.70, and a year - on - year increase of 302.00 [1] - The global iron ore shipping volume is 2,535.30, with a week - on - week decrease of 559.30, a month - on - month decrease of 443.04, and a year - on - year increase of 305.90 [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 230.49, with a week - on - week increase of 1.91, a month - on - month increase of 2.51, and a year - on - year increase of 5.04 [1] - The average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports is 351.19, with a week - on - week increase of 10.11, a month - on - month increase of 18.88, and a year - on - year increase of 21.06 [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 285.54, with a week - on - week increase of 3.30, a month - on - month increase of 4.58, and a year - on - year increase of 4.52 [1] - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 38.53, with a week - on - week decrease of 52.19, a month - on - month decrease of 52.13, and a year - on - year decrease of 35.59 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stark contrast between the booming secondary market for non-ferrous metals and the lack of investment in the primary market, particularly in mining, highlighting the structural disconnect between venture capital (VC) and mining investments [3][4][17]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a remarkable increase, with the Shenwan Nonferrous Index rising by 94.73% in 2025, outperforming other sectors like telecommunications and electronics [3]. - In Hong Kong, copper-related stocks surged by 261%, with major companies like Zijin Mining reaching a market capitalization of over 1 trillion yuan and Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price nearly tripling [3]. - Despite a significant drop in early 2026, the non-ferrous metals sector continued to lead all market segments [3]. Group 2: Investment Discrepancies - There is a notable absence of VC investments in mining, with significant funding directed towards sectors like semiconductors (1,419 deals, 185 billion yuan) and AI, while mining received little attention [3][6]. - The article emphasizes that the disconnect is not due to a lack of interest but rather the inherent differences in investment timelines, valuation language, and exit strategies between VC and mining [6][7]. Group 3: Structural Constraints - VC funds typically have a lifespan of 7 to 10 years, while mining projects can take 5 to 8 years to develop, creating a mismatch in investment horizons [6]. - The language of valuation in VC focuses on metrics like GMV and user growth, which are not applicable to mining, where the focus is on resource reserves and extraction costs [6][7]. - The exit strategy for mining investments is complicated by the fact that significant profits are realized post-production, while secondary markets allow for easier liquidity [6][7]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Models - Some investors are exploring innovative ways to engage with the mining sector, such as investing in technologies that enhance mining efficiency rather than directly in mining rights [9][10]. - Companies like KoBold Metals are using AI to improve mineral discovery efficiency, attracting VC interest due to their scalable technology model [9]. - Major mining companies are also establishing their own investment arms to focus on strategic technologies rather than relying on external VC funding [10]. Group 5: Future Opportunities - The article suggests that there is potential for creating structures that allow VC to participate in mining cycles, such as longer-term funds or financial instruments that mitigate risks [15][16]. - Collaborative projects between mining companies and VCs, where VCs provide technology and mining firms offer resources, could bridge the gap between the two investment worlds [16]. - The ongoing tightening of supply and advancements in technology may present new opportunities for investment in the mining sector, challenging the current status quo [17].