黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent recommendations from brokerages for July's "golden stocks," highlighting the underlying logic and potential investment opportunities for ordinary investors [1][3]. Group 1: Popular Stocks - Kying Network is favored by five brokerages, making it the most recommended stock for the month; Zijin Mining, Huadian Technology, and Muyuan Foods follow closely with four recommendations each [3]. - The selection of these stocks reflects a diverse range of industries, including gaming, mining, PCB manufacturing, and agriculture, indicating a broad interest from brokerages [3]. Group 2: Key Selection Criteria - The first criterion is industry prosperity, with Kying Network benefiting from an increase in game licenses and the release of popular titles, while Huadian Technology sees a surge in demand for PCB boards due to 5G and automotive electronics [3][4]. - The second criterion focuses on policy benefits, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles, where domestic and global trends favor local companies [4]. - The third criterion emphasizes the importance of a company's competitive advantage or "moat," with Zijin Mining having significant copper reserves and cost control, and Huadian Technology holding over 20% market share in high-end PCBs [4]. Group 3: Stock Selection Methodology - The article suggests a three-step approach for investors to filter the recommended stocks: 1. Monitor changes in institutional holdings, such as Kying Network's increase from 8% to 15% in fund holdings [4]. 2. Assess order fulfillment rates, with Huadian Technology reporting a 40% year-on-year increase in new orders [4]. 3. Evaluate free cash flow rates, as evidenced by Zijin Mining's 35% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience initial fluctuations followed by a potential breakthrough, with short-term funds engaging in high-frequency trading within popular sectors while long-term funds adjust their portfolios [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on industry trends, company quality, and reasonable pricing, particularly focusing on semiconductor localization, new energy exports, and consumer recovery [5].

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, marks the first major overhaul in 29 years, addressing urgent issues in mineral management and aiming to enhance resource security and promote sustainable development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Key Changes in the Law - The new law introduces a market-oriented system for the allocation of exploration and mining rights through competitive bidding, auction, and listing, emphasizing the decisive role of the market in resource allocation [2]. - It establishes a property rights registration system for mining rights, ending the previous dual-role of exploration and mining permits as both property and licenses [2]. - The law incorporates principles of coordinated development and safety, resource protection, and the idea that "whoever extracts must restore" [2][3]. Group 2: Implementation and Support Measures - The Ministry of Natural Resources is prioritizing the implementation of the new law and is actively drafting supporting regulations to ensure effective enforcement [3][4]. - A series of policy documents are being prepared to address the management of mineral resources, including guidelines for ecological restoration in mining areas [4][5]. - The Ministry is also focusing on the establishment of a mining rights registration system and improving the licensing system for exploration and extraction to ensure a smooth transition from old to new regulations [5].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.47 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Gold Market Insights - Gold ETFs saw gains, with the Gold Fund ETF (518800) rising by 1.15% and the Gold Stock ETF (517400) increasing by 1.02% [3] - Gold prices have risen over 25% in the first half of 2025, marking the best performance since the second half of 2007, driven by liquidity, geopolitical factors, and central bank purchases [3] - Global central banks are entering a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of three rate cuts within the year, which is likely to support gold prices [3][4] Central Bank Gold Demand - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, nearly 43% of 73 central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year [4] - As of May this year, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, totaling 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons) [4] Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the Innovation Drug ETF (517110) rising by 3.90% and other related ETFs also gaining [9] - New policies from the National Healthcare Security Administration aim to support the development of innovative drugs, including increased R&D support and inclusion in insurance directories [9][10] - The year 2025 is expected to be significant for domestic innovative drugs, with a shift from generic to innovative drug development anticipated [10] Metal Market Trends - The mining ETF (561330) rose by 1.56%, and the Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) increased by 1.35%, continuing an upward trend [11] - Copper supply remains tight with declining inventories, benefiting from improved macro sentiment and expectations of rate cuts [11] - The aluminum market is also experiencing tight supply conditions, with high operational capacity and no immediate new production expected [11]

Group 1: Lithium Market Insights - The lithium market is currently at a cyclical low, but positive signs are emerging, with institutional investors showing confidence in mining and exploration stocks related to energy transition [1][2] - A global survey by Harbour revealed that around half of the institutional investors are looking for growth in natural resource stocks linked to energy transition [1][2] - Lithium has replaced copper as the second most likely commodity to attract institutional investment in Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK/Europe [2] Group 2: Demand Drivers for Lithium - Argonaut's report highlights several positive demand drivers for lithium, particularly from electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), with a projected 30% increase in global EV sales by 2025 [3][4] - The global sales of electric vehicles reached 1.6 million units in May, marking a 24% year-on-year increase [4][5] - Despite current oversupply in the lithium market, Argonaut predicts a rapid price recovery once a moderate shortage occurs, with expectations for lithium spodumene prices to peak at $1,500 per ton by the end of 2026 [7][9] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Argonaut forecasts that the lithium market will rebalance by 2027, with a long-term price projection of $1,600 per ton for lithium spodumene, significantly higher than current spot prices [9][10] - The report indicates that existing production capacity may be restarted in response to rising prices [8][9] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The Australian government anticipates that gold will become the third-largest export commodity next year, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [15] - Overall, Australia's resource and energy export revenue is expected to decline by 4% in the coming year, influenced by global trade barriers and economic slowdowns [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The Stibnite Gold Project by Perpetua Resources is the only known antimony deposit in North America, expected to meet 35% of U.S. antimony demand upon completion in 2028, with a total resource of 67,000 tons of antimony and 149.8 tons of gold [2][4] - The Hillgrove antimony project in Australia has completed its feasibility study and is projected to start production in Q2 2026, with a total ore reserve of 8.766 million tons, containing 39,026 tons of antimony [3][4] - The global antimony supply chain is undergoing reconstruction, shifting from a "China-centric" model to a "multi-center" approach, with significant projects like Stibnite and Hillgrove leading the way [4] Summary by Sections Stibnite Gold Project - The project has received the final federal permit and raised $400 million in equity financing, with a projected net present value (NPV) indicating a tax-adjusted payback period of only 2.5 years [1][2] Treasure Creek Project - The Treasure Creek project by Felix Gold is still in exploration and baseline study stages, with initial production expected in Q4 2025, but short-term supply impact is limited [3] Hillgrove Project - The Hillgrove project has a total ore reserve of 8.766 million tons, with gold and antimony grades of 4.0 g/t and 1.1% respectively, and an investment payback period of 8 months under current price scenarios [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing fluctuations, with current spot prices for PB powder at 707 CNY/ton and super special powder at 600 CNY/ton [1] - As of July 1, 2025, various ports in China show different pricing for iron ore, with prices ranging from 650 CNY/ton to 762 CNY/ton depending on the type and origin of the ore [1] - The futures market closed at 708.5 CNY/ton on July 1, with a decline of 1.32%, indicating a volatile trading environment [1] Group 2 - On June 30, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in China reached 896,000 tons, reflecting a 5.29% decrease compared to the previous period [3] - The total iron ore arrival at 47 ports in China from June 23 to June 29 was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons from the prior week [3] - The report from Baocun Futures suggests that while iron ore demand shows some resilience, the overall market sentiment is improving, but supply remains high, leading to a forecast of continued price fluctuations [4]

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - President Trump indicated that Japan is facing a serious rice shortage while not accepting U.S. rice, and plans to send a letter regarding tariffs to Japan [2] - U.S. Agriculture Secretary mentioned that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the U.S. [2] - Media reports suggest U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Updates - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel by early next year according to Morgan Stanley [2] - Gold has achieved its largest half-year increase since 2007 [2] - Chile's copper production in May increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 486,574 tons according to Chile's National Statistics Institute [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The combination of Trump's tariffs and low water levels has led to severe supply chain congestion in European ports, the worst since the pandemic began [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production is projected to exceed expectations by 2% this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to anticipated increases in output from large oil fields [2] - The European Commission's Vice President announced that the EU has reached a preliminary agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products [2] Group 4: Market Forecasts - Citi forecasts that the supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in Q3 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreasing investment demand [2] - Indonesia has raised its July reference price for crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton [2]

铁矿石：宏观预期回暖 短期偏强运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铁矿石 观点：国际宏观不确定性减弱+风险偏好上升。短期国内宏观预期有所增强，市场交投重心 或逐步交易强现实，外矿发运减弱，但到港量短期维持高位导致库存趋于累积，需求维持保持 相对高位水平，整体累库压力偏弱，预计短期铁矿石盘面价格区间震荡偏强运行。后期关注铁 水是否超预期回升以及政治局会议政策增量。 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨日受焦煤复产消息影响，黑色系集体回落。成材端供需延续淡季特征但累库力度 较弱，铁矿石外矿进入阶段性回落周期，且碳元素不断让利于铁元素，高炉利润水平相对可观， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-01 成本⽀撑转弱，⿊⾊⾼开低⾛ 昨⽇⿊⾊盘⾯⾛弱，其中双焦受煤矿复产消息影响，尾盘跌幅较⼤。 从钢材周度表需看，螺纹表现好于预期，板材则有所分化，五⼤材整 体累库。结合板材和其他⼩品种现货情况看，确实有淡季转弱态势。 后续主要看出⼝能否保持顺畅以及钢材累库斜率，市场⼼态较为谨 慎，盘⾯再度恢复震荡运⾏态势。 ⿊⾊：成本⽀撑转弱，⿊⾊⾼开低⾛ 昨日黑色盘面走弱，其中双焦受煤矿复产消息影响，尾盘跌幅较大。 从钢材周度表需看，螺纹表现好于预期，板材则有所分化，五大材整 体累库。结合板材和其他小品种现货情况看，确实有淡季转弱态势。 后续主要看出口能否保持顺畅以及钢材累库斜率，市场心态较为谨 慎，盘面再度恢复震荡运行态势。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山冲量不及预期，发运量环比下降；需求端 钢企铁水日产微幅增加，预计短期铁水产量可以维持高位。到港下 降，需求高位，港口小幅去库。前期海外矿山冲发运将在几周内到 港，矿石有阶段性小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不 突出。近期重点关注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素 ...