Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies including Carrier, Eaton, Honeywell, Johnson Controls, 3M, and Trane Technologies, while Dover, Emerson Electric, Fastenal, Fortive, and Rockwell Automation are rated as "Neutral" [10][56]. Core Insights - The outlook for the Electrical Equipment and Multi-Industry sector is optimistic, with expectations for industrial equities to continue rising. The report highlights the importance of stock selection and notes that demand destruction has not been observed so far [12][39]. - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to show positive results due to price/cost and foreign exchange tailwinds, along with order reacceleration [12]. - The report emphasizes the structural support mechanisms for equity value, including strong consumer and corporate balance sheets, and a return of small business confidence [12]. - Tax incentives related to nearshoring are expected to bolster capital expenditures, contributing to a favorable investment environment [12]. - The report identifies key companies such as Johnson Controls, 3M, and Honeywell as having significant earnings potential and structural improvement opportunities [12][38][39]. Summary by Sections Comparative Valuation - The report includes a detailed comparative valuation table for various companies, showing metrics such as market cap, EV/EBITDA, P/E ratios, and target prices [10]. - For example, Carrier has a market cap of $65 billion with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $81, while Dover has a market cap of $26 billion with a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $211 [10]. Investment Framework - The report outlines an investment framework focusing on stock selection and the potential for further upside in a reacceleration scenario, estimating a 30% increase in stock prices if demand returns [12]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their growth potential, including Johnson Controls, which is expected to see a 70% increase in earnings power over the next three years due to a new CEO [12][37]. Earnings Projections - Earnings projections for Johnson Controls indicate a sales growth from $23.3 billion in 2025 to $27.7 billion by 2028, with a targeted EBIT margin improvement [37]. - The report also discusses the complexities within Johnson Controls' business structure, indicating areas for potential improvement and synergies [38][40]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the industrial sector has experienced significant volatility, with historical data showing a peak-to-trough decline of 19% as of December 2024 [23]. - It also discusses the impact of tariffs on U.S. consumers, with a reduction in the estimated tariff burden from over $700 billion to approximately $300 billion [22]. Long-term Outlook - The report expresses confidence in the long-term growth potential of the sector, driven by structural changes and improvements within key companies [39]. - The anticipated return on investment in manufacturing structures is projected to yield significant benefits over the coming years [28].

Summary of the Conference Call on Switch Industry and AI Computing Power Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **switch industry**, highlighting its critical role in network interconnection and the growing demand driven by data center construction [4][20]. - The global switch market is projected to grow significantly, with the top five manufacturers holding a substantial market share [4][68]. Key Points and Arguments Market Growth and Demand - The global switch market is expected to grow from **$61.9 billion in 2020** to **$96.8 billion by 2025**, with a **CAGR of 9.4%** [24]. - In China, the market is projected to increase from **¥116.8 billion in 2020** to **¥318 billion by 2025**, with a **CAGR of 22.2%** [24]. - The demand for switches is driven by the increasing data center construction and the need for higher data transfer rates [20][30]. Market Concentration - The top five global switch manufacturers, including **Cisco, Arista, Huawei, HPE, and Xinhua San**, hold **69.6%** of the market share, with Cisco leading at **35.9%** [4][68]. - In China, the top five manufacturers account for **89.7%** of the market, with Huawei at **32.4%** [4][68]. Technological Trends - **White-box technology** is emerging, allowing for hardware-software decoupling, which reduces acquisition and operational costs [31][35]. - The **CPO (Chip-Package-Optical)** switch technology is gaining traction, promising lower power consumption and higher efficiency [36][41]. Chip Market Dynamics - The global Ethernet switch chip market is expected to grow, with commercial vendors driving the majority of the growth [81][86]. - The market is currently dominated by overseas giants, indicating significant room for domestic alternatives [87]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights the **risk factors** including the potential underdevelopment of AI applications, escalating US-China trade tensions, intensified market competition, and the risk of failure in new technology and product development [7]. - The **data center switch market** in China is expected to account for **51.7%** of the total switch market by 2026, indicating a growing reliance on data center infrastructure [30]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as **Sengke Communication, Yutai Micro, Ruijie Networks, Unisplendour, ZTE, and Feiling Kesi** for potential investment opportunities [6]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the switch industry and its intersection with AI computing power, providing a comprehensive overview of market dynamics, technological advancements, and investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wiwynn Corporation with a target price of TWD3,400, implying approximately 32.8% upside from the current price of TWD2,560 [4][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights stronger growth in ASIC servers compared to GPU servers, with expectations for continued momentum into the second half of 2025 [2][7]. - Major PC ODMs experienced a significant pull-in in notebook shipments in June 2025, with a 22% month-over-month increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter rise, exceeding previous guidance [1][3]. - The overall outlook for notebook shipments in the second half of 2025 remains cautious due to unclear consumer demand, with a forecasted year-over-year growth of only 3% [3][4]. Summary by Sections ASIC Server Outlook - The demand for ASIC servers is expected to strengthen in the second half of 2025, particularly driven by AWS's Trainium 2 servers, with a forecast of sequential double-digit growth in rack shipments [2][4]. - The yield rate for GB200 server rack assembly is anticipated to improve from below 50% in the second quarter of 2025 to 60-70% in the second half of 2025 [2]. Notebook Market Analysis - The early pull-in of notebook shipments is largely completed, with a muted growth outlook for the second half of 2025 due to ongoing consumer demand uncertainty [3][4]. - The report estimates a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase in notebook shipments for the third quarter of 2025, which is below seasonal norms [3]. Stock Recommendations - Wiwynn is favored due to its strong revenue outlook supported by accelerating ASIC server shipments, with Oracle expected to contribute 7% to Wiwynn's revenue in 2025 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for additional upside from Oracle beyond 2025, driven by market share shifts and an expanding addressable market [4].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a Sell rating on COSCO Shipping Holding (1919 HK, HK$12.1 TP) and Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT, NT$59 TP) while assigning a Neutral rating to Maersk [3][89][92] Core Insights - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, which is slightly negative compared to market expectations [1] - Capacity growth in the shipping industry is projected at +10% YoY in July, with specific growth rates of +15% for the US and +20% for Europe [3] - Air freight rates have shown a decline of -2% YoY in June, indicating a potential softening in demand [1][3] Capacity and Demand - The overall capacity growth is +10% YoY in July, with a total number of scheduled sailings increasing by approximately +9% YoY [3] - The idling rate is at 3.4% by TEU, slightly below the ten-year average of 4.5% [4] - Cancelled sailings are at 7.1% this week, which is below the previous year's level of 8.1% [3] Tariff Implications - The 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam is expected to drive supply chain diversification away from China, particularly towards ASEAN countries [2] - The potential for tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% could challenge demand growth in the second half of 2025, although low-single-digit growth is still anticipated [3] Freight Rates and Market Dynamics - Air freight rates have decreased by -2% YoY in June, reflecting a broader trend of declining rates in the shipping sector [1][3] - Schedule reliability improved to 58.7% in April, indicating better operational performance in the shipping industry [4] Company Valuations - Maersk's target price is set at DKK13,591, based on a blend of price/book and EV/EBITDA valuations, reflecting market skepticism towards the sector [86] - COSCO Shipping Holdings has a target price of HK$12.1, based on a 0.7x 2026E PBV [89] - Yang Ming Marine's target price is NT$59, based on a 0.6x 2026E PBV [92]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades SMIC's H/A shares to Buy/Buy from Reduce/Hold, with target prices raised to HKD64.00/RMB148.00 from HKD35.00/RMB92.00, implying upside of approximately 46%/73% [4][8]. Core Insights - SMIC is positioned to benefit from the localization trend in China, emerging as a key player in the semiconductor industry despite facing near-term ASP headwinds due to specific equipment yield issues [1][3]. - The company is expected to maintain margin stability in advanced nodes through a balance of pricing power and yield improvements, with an anticipated ASP premium of 57% under conservative yield assumptions [2][49]. - SMIC's market share in the China Foundry Total Addressable Market (TAM) is projected to grow from 25% in 2024, supported by a 13% capacity expansion from Q2 2024 to Q4 2024 [3][41]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for SMIC are estimated at USD 8,030 million for 2024, increasing to USD 13,210 million by 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% in 2024 and 15% in 2025 [9][10]. - The net profit is expected to rise from USD 493 million in 2024 to USD 1,918 million in 2027, with EPS estimates increasing from USD 0.06 to USD 0.25 over the same period [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report raises the target price-to-book (P/B) multiples for SMIC to 2.9x/7.2x, reflecting a premium due to its strategic positioning and expansion into advanced nodes [4][64]. - The expected EV/sales ratio is projected to decrease from 5.9 in 2024 to 3.5 by 2027, indicating improving valuation as revenue grows [11]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to reinforce China's push for self-sufficiency, benefiting SMIC as it becomes the preferred foundry in China [21][39]. - The report highlights that despite short-term ASP declines, SMIC is likely to emerge as a major beneficiary of the localization trend, with expectations for improved ASP conditions in the second half of 2025 [38][41]. Capacity and Utilization - SMIC's capacity in advanced nodes is projected to reach 25K-30K wafers per month by the end of 2025, with utilization rates expected to improve from 86% in FY24 to 91% in FY25 [49][50]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a high utilization rate compared to peers, reaching full capacity by the first half of 2026 [22][41].

大麦娱乐 20250611 摘要 阿里鱼通过独家和非独家授权模式运营包括三丽鸥、吉卡瓦、宝可梦、 蜡笔小新等知名 IP，其中头部 IP 贡献了大部分收入，公司拥有一套评估 体系，主要参考下游售授权相关的零售额（GMV）来划分头部与非头部 IP。 阿里鱼拥有三丽鸥家族大中华区商品授权独家代理权和吉卡瓦广告、空 间及商品全方位独家权利，通过 IP 授权、整合营销等方式为三丽鸥提供 增值服务，显著推动了三丽鸥在中国市场的业绩增长。 吉卡瓦是 2025 年阿里鱼 IP 授权业务的重要增长点，通过线下快闪店和 动画发行等方式提升市场影响力，在公司 IP 矩阵中收入贡献排名前三。 阿里鱼 2025 年重点布局 C 端业务，战略方向包括内生开发 IP 货品品牌 （如"另物"）和签约设计师开发新 IP，通过线上线下渠道销售，同时 也在卡牌赛道上有所布局。 2024 年阿里鱼 IP 总收入为 14.3 亿，主要来自 IP 转授权（ToB 业务）， 天猫旗舰店运营和潮玩类目运营服务费等，2025 年锦鲤拿去因影视类 IP 生命周期短而关停，每个 IP 的 take rate 基本维持稳定。 Q&A 阿里鱼目前的 IP 资源情况如 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 开篇：新消费，何以常新 图表1：一张图看懂"新消费" 资料来源：中金公司研究部 2019年，我们发布了《聚焦"新消费"》[1]大报告，在新消费崛起的初期论证了其兴起的原因与本质，展望了美好的前景。经过这几年的发展，新消费浪潮 风起云涌，当年的明星公司，有的大展宏图，有的泯然众人矣。站在这个时点，我们需要进一步思考：新消费，何以常新？ 当前中国消费行业似乎进入了一个分水岭：一面是海水，一面是火焰。一面是Labubu二手价的热炒，一面是茅台批价的承压。一面是胖东来门庭若市，一 面是外资卖场黯然退场。我们发现，消费者依旧需求旺盛、依旧充满热忱，只不过供需易势，需要供给方用更诚挚的热忱、更高的效率、更创新的产品来 建立自己的"买方解法"。因此，爆发性流量红利从未远去，前有哈尔滨用硬核诚意守护游客，换来"尔滨"美誉；后有苏超重振了国民对足球的热爱与信 心，"比赛第一，友谊第十四"让人会心一笑。新消费，新的是技术与创新驱动的效率革命、体验重构的产品和场景升级，不变的是消费者对品质的追求、 与品牌的情感链接。 什么是"新消费"？新消费是消费升级趋势的深化演进，更是大消费行业的经营理念升级。 随着中国 ...

Group 1: Stock Splits Overview - Stock splits are becoming less common due to the availability of fractional shares, but they still serve purposes such as employee compensation [1] - Stock splits can generate excitement among investors and may lead to stock price surges, making it a strategic time to acquire stocks that are potential candidates for splits [1] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft, currently trading around $500, may be compelled to split its stock to maintain its position in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as it is the second most expensive stock in the index [3][4] Group 3: Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs, the most expensive stock in the Dow at over $700, may also consider a stock split next year to remain a manageable component of the index [5] Group 4: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms, trading at approximately $725, could be a candidate for a stock split as the Dow transitions to include more AI-focused companies [6] Group 5: Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares are unlikely to split due to their high price of over $700,000, but the more affordable Class B shares at $477 could be considered for a split next year [7][8] Group 6: Costco - Costco, which has seen its stock price exceed $1,000, may announce a stock split in 2026 as it becomes a candidate for such action [9] Group 7: Netflix - Netflix, with shares trading around $1,250, may also consider a stock split in 2026 to manage employee compensation costs associated with stock options [10] Group 8: ASML - ASML, currently trading at approximately $800, may consider a stock split in anticipation of strong growth in the semiconductor sector [11] Group 9: ServiceNow - ServiceNow, trading around $1,000, is benefiting from AI integration and could be a potential candidate for a stock split as its stock continues to rise [12] Group 10: Fair Isaac Corporation - Fair Isaac Corporation, known for credit scoring, has seen its stock rise to over $1,600 and may announce a split next year despite a recent decline from its 52-week high of $2,400 [13] Group 11: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre, a leading e-commerce and fintech company in Latin America, has a stock price of $2,400 and could be ripe for a stock split in 2026 [14] Group 12: Investment Considerations - Even if some companies do not proceed with stock splits, they may still represent strong investment opportunities, with compelling cases beyond the potential for a split [15]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. investors may be overlooking better investment opportunities in international stocks due to the fear of missing out on U.S. market gains, particularly as the S&P 500 reaches record highs [1][2] Group 1: International Exposure - Increasing international exposure is suggested as a safer and smarter alternative to investing more in the U.S. economy, as foreign stocks are currently trading at cheaper valuations and performing better [2][10] - The iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) is highlighted as a suitable vehicle for gaining international exposure [4] Group 2: Historical Performance - Historical data shows that foreign stocks outperformed the S&P 500 between 2002 and 2009, primarily due to a weaker U.S. dollar [5][6] - Analysts predict a potential reversal of the recent U.S. stock performance dominance, leading to a recovery in non-U.S. stocks [8][9] Group 3: Valuation Comparison - The S&P 500 is currently priced at 24.5 times trailing earnings and 23.6 times forward-looking earnings, which is high compared to the MSCI EAFE's 10-year average P/E of 14.2 and trailing-12-month P/E of 16.7 [12][14] - Analysts emphasize that international stocks are closer to their historical averages, suggesting greater price appreciation potential compared to overvalued U.S. stocks [14] Group 4: Diversification Strategy - Adding international exposure is recommended to shield portfolios from economic and political uncertainties in the U.S. [16] - The iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF includes quality foreign companies such as SAP, ASML, Nestlé, and Novartis, providing a diversified investment option [17]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of strategizing to counter external risks and price volatility in the oil and gas market when considering potential portfolio additions [1] - The author has nearly two decades of experience in the logistics sector and focuses on stock investing and macroeconomic analysis, particularly in ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ stocks [1] - The author emphasizes the diversification of investments across various industries and market cap sizes, including banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels [1] Group 2 - The author began trading in the Philippine stock market in 2014, initially investing in blue-chip companies and later expanding to different sectors [1] - The entry into the US market occurred in 2020, with the author gaining insights through a relative's trading account before opening their own [1] - The author has been utilizing analyses from Seeking Alpha to compare with their own research in the Philippine market since discovering the platform in 2018 [1]