研究中心能化团队 2025/05/15 SP主力合约收盘价： 5378.00 | 日期 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/12 | 2025/05/09 | 2025/05/08 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5378.00 | 5276.00 | 5256.00 | 5164.00 | 5148.00 | | 折美元价 | 651.66 | 639.77 | 636.25 | 622.12 | 621.08 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 1.93328% | 0.38052% | 1.78156% | 0.31080% | 0.19463% | | 山东银星基差 | 922 | 1024 | 984 | 1046 | 1062 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 922 | 999 | 969 | 1036 | 1052 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 1.893 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million in 2024, with year-on-year changes of +1% for revenue and -3% for net profit [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 496.3 million, with a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 90% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates operating revenue of 456.4 million, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 47% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total sales volume of 4.56 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, with an average gross profit per ton of 398 RMB, a decrease of approximately 69 RMB [9] - The revenue breakdown includes: - White cardboard revenue of 1.1542 billion, with a sales volume of 2.9 million tons, and an average price of 3987 RMB/ton [9] - Cultural paper revenue of 474.1 million, with a sales volume of 980,000 tons, and an average price of 4848 RMB/ton [9] - Boxboard revenue of 163 million, with a sales volume of 530,000 tons, and an average price of 3098 RMB/ton [9] - Gypsum face paper revenue of 59.5 million, with a sales volume of 160,000 tons, and an average price of 3654 RMB/ton [9] Future Outlook - The company expects continuous growth in production and sales, with demand recovery likely to drive paper prices and profitability upward [9] - The overseas sales revenue is projected to see significant growth, with export revenue accounting for 16% of total sales, effectively hedging against domestic cyclical risks [9] - The company plans to continue developing differentiated products and implementing digital transformation to enhance market responsiveness [9]

【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/13 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货市场 | 山东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 5025 | 5025 | 0 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 5250 | 5250 | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5300 | 5300 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g天 阳 | 4950 | 4950 | 0 0 | | | | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 5100 | 5100 | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 5150 | 5150 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税收入 | 5238 | 5250 | -13 | | | | 含税成本 | 5133 | 5129 | 5 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛利 | 104 | 121 | -17 | | | 税 后 | 不含税收入 不含税成本 | 4635 4715 | 4646 4711 | -11 4 | | | | 税后毛利 | -80 | -65 | ...

纸浆早报 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | 针叶浆 | 阔叶浆 | 本色浆 | 化机浆 | | 2025/05/07 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/08 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/09 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686.25 | 6245.00 | 4775.00 | 5400.00 | 3600.00 | | 2025/05/12 | 6073.75 | 4810.75 | 5415.00 | 3686. ...

木浆成本下行，供需宽松，双胶纸价格承压 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 【综合分析】 基本情况①价格：70g双胶纸企业含税均价为5128.6元/吨，环比降幅3.0%。② 供应端分化：部分纸机转产情况存在，且停产企业暂未恢 复正常生产，新增装置生产暂未放量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期③成本：针叶浆期货盘面止跌企稳， 但周均价环比仍下跌；阔叶浆价格持续承压下探，贸易商报价混乱。 【逻辑】 双胶纸：供应：行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，市场供应趋稳。需求：秋季出版订单释放进度缓慢，社会面订单仍显不振，整 体终端消费跟进不及预期，下游印厂开工水平不高，用户原纸库存消耗缓慢，无明显大量囤库意愿。成本：国内港口库存仍处于高位，叠 加进口浆现货市场货源充裕，市场对供应过剩担忧加剧，木浆价格整体趋弱。 【策略】 胶版印刷纸预期下周偏弱调整。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 综合分析与交易策略 第一部分 综合分 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the light industry sector and its response to the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in this context [1][3][9]. Key Points and Arguments Companies Benefiting from Tariff Easing - **Yutong Technology** is expected to benefit from overseas capacity transfer and a high dividend strategy, showing a potential for rebound despite previous stock price declines due to supply chain concerns. The company reported steady growth in Q1 2025, with expectations for double-digit profit growth in Q2 [1][4]. - **Eternal Art Co.** and other export-oriented companies are expanding their market share overseas. Their Q1 performance was strong, but stock prices have not fully reflected this, indicating a strong margin of safety and potential for price recovery [1][5]. - Companies like **Craftsmanship**, **Jia Yi Home**, and **Zhejiang Natural** represent the trend of Chinese manufacturing going global. Their strong performance has not been adequately valued, and with easing tariffs, they may see valuation recovery, particularly **Jiangxin** and **Jia Yi** [1][6]. - **Zhiou Technology** focuses on developing its own brand, and any tariff reductions could directly enhance its profit margins, making it a key focus. Similar potential is noted for **GoerTek** [1][7]. Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - Companies with high market attention and consistent performance, such as **Compensation Management Company** and **Jia Ying**, may see their price-to-earnings ratios recover from around 15 times to between 18 and 20 times, providing a rationale for current investments [1][8]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the complex nature of China-U.S. relations may lead to recurring tariff issues. Export-oriented companies should focus on expanding into non-U.S. markets while also considering those that have succeeded in the U.S. and are looking to expand globally [1][9]. Impact on Specific Industries - The paper industry, as a part of the domestic consumption cycle, is expected to benefit indirectly from eased tariffs. Current paper prices are at historical lows, and companies like **Sun Paper** and **Xianhe Co.** are recommended for investment [2][10][11]. - The new consumption sector is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity, with a focus on emerging trends that are less dependent on traditional economic indicators [12][13]. Short-term Investment Strategies - Short-term investment opportunities include companies with significant stock price declines due to tariffs, such as **Yutong**, **Eternal Group**, and **Jianlin Industrial**. Additionally, export chain companies with strong performance but lagging stock prices, like **Jianfa** and **Eternal Art**, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of tariff easing [1][14]. Recommendations for Future Investments - The light industry and new consumption sectors are identified as future trends worth monitoring. Investment should focus on companies that can significantly benefit from easing tariff policies [1][15]. Other Important Insights - The conference call emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments away from over-reliance on the U.S. market, suggesting a strategic focus on companies capable of expanding into Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board shows strong resilience and stability in 2024, supported by a series of incremental policies, with significant growth in net profits and operational cash flow recovery [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the main board companies achieved a total operating income of 49.57 trillion yuan, maintaining stability year-on-year; net profit reached 4.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [1]. - The annual performance trend was characterized by a decline in net profit of 1% in the first half, followed by a significant recovery with a 5% increase in the second half [2]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 15% in the fourth quarter, restoring to the previous year's level [2]. Industry Transition - Over the past decade, the leading industries on the main board have shifted from traditional sectors like finance and energy to emerging sectors such as automotive and biomedicine, with market capitalization in these sectors reaching 2 trillion yuan and 1.5 trillion yuan respectively [3]. - The proportion of emerging industry companies among the top 50 by market capitalization has increased to 50%, indicating a significant rise in both quantity and market share [3]. Emerging Industries Growth - The number of companies in emerging industries has risen to 40% over the past decade, with net profit compound growth reaching 11%, outperforming traditional industries by 5 percentage points [4]. - Emerging industries are driving the transformation of the economy towards high-quality development, fostering innovation and enhancing the value chain [4]. Corporate Governance and Efficiency - As of 2024, 946 companies on the main board have disclosed "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" action plans, with nearly 60% of these companies achieving profitability [5]. - The overall dividend scale reached a new high in 2024, with 1,259 companies declaring cash dividends totaling 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [6]. Market Dynamics - The number of companies implementing share buybacks and major shareholder increases has doubled, with buyback plans disclosed by 400 companies and shareholder increase plans by 380 companies [7]. - The total amount for buybacks and increases reached 843 billion yuan and 537 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong market confidence [7]. Mergers and Acquisitions - In 2024, over 1,500 new merger transactions were recorded on the main board, with a total transaction value exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan, reflecting increased market activity [9]. - The core logic of mergers and acquisitions remains focused on industrial integration and enhancing competitive advantages, with traditional industries restructuring assets and emerging industries expanding their technological capabilities [10]. Capital Market Efficiency - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as key tools for optimizing resource allocation in the capital market, enhancing efficiency and vitality [11]. - Successful restructuring cases can boost investor confidence and attract long-term capital, contributing to the overall improvement of the capital market [11].

Summary of the Paper Industry Weekly Tracking Industry Overview - The report focuses on the paper industry, specifically the pricing trends of various paper products and raw materials, including wood pulp and waste paper [1][2]. Key Points Wood Pulp Prices - Wood pulp prices have shown a slight decrease compared to the previous week: - Copper plate paper: 5600 CNY/ton, down 45 CNY/ton (↓0.80%) [1] - Double glue paper: 5266 CNY/ton, down 38 CNY/ton (↓0.71%) [1] - White card paper: 4105 CNY/ton, down 48 CNY/ton (↓1.14%) [1] - White board paper: 3213 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton (↓0.23%) [1] Waste Paper Prices - Waste paper prices have experienced a slight increase: - Corrugated paper: 3158 CNY/ton, up 8 CNY/ton (↑0.24%) [1] - Boxboard paper: 4238 CNY/ton, up 8 CNY/ton (↑0.18%) [1] Domestic Pulp Prices - Domestic pulp prices have decreased compared to the previous week: - Domestic needle pulp: 6210 CNY/ton, down 83 CNY/ton (↓1.31%) [2] - Domestic broadleaf pulp: 4188 CNY/ton, down 149 CNY/ton (↓3.43%) [2] - Chemical mechanical pulp: 3875 CNY/ton, unchanged [2] National Waste Prices - National waste prices have also decreased: - National waste yellow board paper: 1520 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (↓0.65%) [2] Additional Insights - The report indicates a mixed trend in paper prices, with wood pulp prices declining while waste paper prices are on the rise, suggesting potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics within the industry [1][2].

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...