晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 3.02%, outperforming the market by 1.02 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.17%, also surpassing the market by 0.16 percentage points [2][13] - The report highlights that the cultural paper sector is entering an off-peak season, leading to a decline in pulp and paper prices [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests focusing on leading special paper companies like Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 3.02%, while the paper sub-sector increased by 2.17%, ranking 9th among 28 first-level industries [2][13][20] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report notes a decline in wood pulp product prices, with domestic waste prices slightly increasing by 1.5 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices decreased by 5-10 USD/ton [9][24] - The average market price for finished paper products saw declines: double glue paper down by 38 CNY/ton, copper plate paper down by 45 CNY/ton, and white card paper down by 48 CNY/ton [39][40][42] Profitability Levels - Profitability in cultural paper is diverging, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 25 CNY/ton in double glue paper, while large companies experienced a decrease of 43 CNY/ton [48][49] - The profitability of packaging paper is declining, with white card paper profitability down by 20-48 CNY/ton [48][51] Production Data - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [57] - The report indicates that the import volume of paper and paperboard decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, while the export volume increased by 10.7% [57]

新消费估值体系抬升，出口链关税缓和预期强化 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 新消费估值体系抬升，出口链关税缓和预期强 化 行业研究 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 ➢ 消费：布鲁可发布变形金刚等新品，卡游推出 EVA 卡牌，润本山姆渠 道增量显著。本周布鲁可发布变形金刚星辰版第 3 弹，创新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Insights - In April, China's overall exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in export value, although exports to the U.S. declined by over 20% [8] - The global sales of AI smart glasses reached 600,000 units in Q1 2025, marking a 216% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by the success of Ray Ban Meta smart glasses [8] - The report continues to recommend sectors benefiting from new consumer trends, particularly in personal care and trendy toys [8] Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market with a 3.02% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025, compared to a 2.00% increase in the CSI 300 index [17] - Sub-sectors such as entertainment products (+3.91%) and home goods (+3.30%) showed strong performance [17] Home Furnishing - In March, the furniture retail sales increased by 29.5% year-on-year, while the furniture export value decreased by 7.8% in April [45] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the home furnishing sector as consumer confidence gradually improves [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 9, 2025, the prices of various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5,250 CNY/ton (-56.3 CNY/ton) and boxboard paper at 3,506.6 CNY/ton (+2.4 CNY/ton) [55] - The paper industry experienced a cumulative revenue decline of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, with a sales profit margin of 2.7% [69] New Consumer Trends - The report emphasizes the growth in the AI smart glasses market, with expectations of 5.5 million units sold in 2025, driven by new product launches from various brands [8] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Mingyue Optical and Kangnai Optical, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the market, with a 3.47% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025 [27] - The report suggests monitoring leading brands in apparel and outdoor products as domestic consumption policies begin to take effect [27]

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The international pulp mills' latest round of price cuts for imported hardwood pulp and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, rebounded from a low level [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of May 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,175 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.34 percentage points. The improvement in downstream demand was poor. Base paper enterprises mainly made purchases at low prices, the shipment speed slowed down, and the pulp market transactions were difficult to increase [13]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, China imported 3.249 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 2.0042 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 616.87 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to March increased by 5% and 4.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. In March 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in March was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [16]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9731 million tons, down 3.33% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.63 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. - **European Inventory in March**: According to Europulp data, in March 2025, the total inventory at European ports increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Only the inventory at German ports decreased by 9.30% month - on - month. Overall, the inventory at most European ports increased month - on - month, driving the total inventory at European ports to increase in March [21]. 3. Future Outlook - Arauco of Chile adjusted its pulp export quotes for April 2025. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was lowered by 55 US dollars/ton to 770 US dollars/ton, the price of natural pulp (Venus) was lowered by 40 US dollars/ton to 650 US dollars/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp (Star) was lowered by 70 US dollars/ton to 560 US dollars/ton, a significant reduction compared to the previous round of quotes. Considering the foreign inventory situation, the overall inventory at European ports increased in March 2025. The price cuts of imported hardwood pulp by international pulp mills and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：本周出货未见明显好转，纸价承压下跌。 ➢ 后续展望：短期来看，纸厂提价乏力，月初报盘略有下滑，经销商去库为主，出版社招标缓慢进行，预计纸价下周仍然承压运行。中长 期趋势来看，从供需格局角度来看，随着终端需求的季节性转弱，在产能的持续投放以及宏观经济的不确定性的大背景下，预计难以见 到贸易商重建纸品库存的信心，本轮浆纸的负反馈尚未结束，盘面仍有下行动力。从估值角度来看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The visit of Canadian Academy of Engineering member Ni Yonghao and Dr. An Xingye from Tianjin University of Science and Technology to Jingxing Paper Industry (002067) focused on the application of bamboo pulp, technological innovation, and the integrated development of pulp and paper production, highlighting the need for optimizing processes to enhance product quality and reduce costs [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The discussion included a global perspective on the development trends in the paper industry, emphasizing the importance of adapting to market demands and product upgrades [1] - The exploration of high-quality and environmentally friendly products for specific markets such as household paper and packaging paper was a key topic [1] Group 2: Company Strategies - The company aims to optimize the synergy between pulp and paper production to improve overall efficiency based on its existing industrial chain [1] - The collaboration with Tianjin University of Science and Technology focuses on leveraging research outcomes to enhance the performance of bamboo pulp in paper production [1]

截至2025年5月9日收盘，华旺科技（605377）报收于11.02元，较上周的10.99元上涨0.27%。本周，华 旺科技5月9日盘中最高价报11.11元。5月6日盘中最低价报10.8元。华旺科技当前最新总市值51.12亿 元，在造纸板块市值排名11/22，在两市A股市值排名2802/5145。 本周关注点 天健会计师事务所将继续担任公司2025年度财务报告及内部控制审计机构，审计收费为90万元。此外， 会议还将审议确认2024年度董事和监事薪酬的具体情况。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 【公司公告汇总】华旺科技将于2025年5月20日召开2024年年度股东大会 【业绩披露要点】2024年公司实现营业收入376848.34万元，同比下降5.21% 【业绩披露要点】公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利4.50元，并每10股以资本公积金转增2股 公司公告汇总 杭州华旺新材料科技股份有限公司将于2025年5月20日召开2024年年度股东大会，会议地点为浙江省杭 州市临安区青山湖街道滨河北路18号公司会议室。会议将审议多 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experienced declines of 0.30% and 0.69% respectively on May 5, 2025, while the ChiNext Index and STAR Market 50 fell by 0.87% and 1.96% respectively [1] - Among 33 A-share companies in Zibo, 30 saw an increase, 1 remained flat, and 2 declined during the same period [1] Notable Stock Movements - Weiming Pharmaceutical (002581) achieved a remarkable 23.29% increase over five days, leading the gains [1] - Yahua Electronics (301337) and Jincheng Pharmaceutical (300233) also saw significant increases of 17.30% and 11.31% respectively [1] - On May 7, PEEK material concept stocks surged, with Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (002915) hitting the daily limit for the sixth time in nine days, and Kaisheng New Materials (301069) rising by 2.29% with a trading volume of 4.02 billion yuan [1] Company Announcements - Kehui Co., Ltd. announced a share repurchase plan with a budget between 9 million and 16 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 17 yuan per share, aimed at employee stock ownership plans [1] Financial Results - Furuida (600223) reported a revenue of 526 million yuan in its cosmetics segment for Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 61.06% [3] - Qichang Tenda (002408) achieved total revenue of 5.618 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.53%, but saw a significant drop in net profit by 83.18% to 5.4007 million yuan [3] - Xinhua Medical (600587) reported a total revenue of 2.308 billion yuan, down 8.74% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 23.97% to 160 million yuan [3] - Bohui Paper (600966) reported a total revenue of 4.564 billion yuan, a 3.77% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 46.91% to 53.3737 million yuan [3] Market Capitalization - In terms of market capitalization, Yingke Medical (300677) led with 14.708 billion yuan, followed closely by Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (600529) at 14.626 billion yuan, and Qichang Tenda (002408) at 12.963 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - The total revenue of 33 A-share listed companies in Zibo for 2024 is approximately 147.77 billion yuan, with 23 companies showing revenue growth compared to the previous year [1][2] - The total net profit for these companies is around 6.66 billion yuan, with 19 companies experiencing a year-on-year increase in net profit [1][8] Revenue Performance - 23 companies achieved positive revenue growth, while 10 companies reported declines [2] - Three companies surpassed the 10 billion yuan revenue mark: Qixiang Tengda (25.22 billion yuan), Bohui Paper (18.93 billion yuan), and Xinhua Medical (10.02 billion yuan) [2][4] - Qixiang Tengda remains the revenue leader despite a 6.31% decline in revenue [4] - Bohui Paper produced 4.53 million tons of paper, achieving a revenue of 18.93 billion yuan, a 1.27% increase [4] - Xinhua Medical's revenue increased slightly by 0.09%, with significant growth in its pharmaceutical equipment segment [4][5] Profitability Analysis - The total net profit of 33 companies is approximately 6.66 billion yuan, with notable profit leaders being Yingke Medical (1.47 billion yuan), Shandong Yaobang (943 million yuan), and Xinhua Medical (692 million yuan) [8][9] - Yingke Medical's net profit surged by 282.63%, marking it as the most profitable company [9][10] - 19 companies reported an increase in net profit, while 14 companies experienced declines [8][12] - Five companies saw net profit declines exceeding 50%, with Yahua Electronics reporting a significant loss of 26 million yuan [12][13] Notable Companies - Yingke Medical's production capacity utilization reached 100%, with a recovery in sales prices compared to 2023 [10] - Bohui Paper's strong production capacity contributed to its stable revenue growth [4] - Xinhua Medical is expanding its international presence with five overseas sales centers [5] - Blue Sail Medical, despite a revenue increase of 26.91%, reported a loss of 446 million yuan [16]